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1. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: September 22, 2009 at 12:39 AM (#3328472)He's 25 years old. That suggests that he will improve.
He is a worse hitter than Johnny Damon was at the same age, and it will probably stay that way.
But that was just wish casting based off a hot September/October. There was nothing in his record to indicate that he should do any better than a 750-780 OPS in MLB.
Frankly, you should be thrilled. Assuming his defense bounces back to averagish, a ~100 OPS+ with that kind of speed in CF is a hell of a nice player.
Glad to see a new thread!
I'm still sceptical of some of the metrics that define defensive prowess, so a grain of salt is to be taken with each one.
Not by anybody who knew their butt from their elbow. I'm honestly surprised he hit as well as he has this year.
Also, 1-year UZRs are all but worthless, as far as I'm concerned. They don't represent reality; they represent a possible version of reality, and if a young, uninjured player suddenly shows a downward blip in his UZR, I don't take that to mean that he has actually fielded any worse this season. It's like park factor that way; if it goes on for a few years in a row, then there may be something to it. If it happens for one year, who knows what it means.
RZR doesn't like him either. Any one have access to +/-?
It could be noise (the balls in his zones are harder to field than average) or he could be having an off year. In an equivalent sample to 1/3 season of PAs, it's not too hard to believe either.
+/- at billjamesonline.com has him at -8 runs, broken out as "-11 shallow, +2 medium, and -5 deep" (plays). He's also -2 runs on extra bases taken, ranked #30 in MLB in bases taken per opportunity.
I'm pretty sure "arm" is also the reason you can have a larger magnitude negative UZR than negative UZR/150 (or vice versa) at fangraphs. UZR/150 seems to be just figured from "range" and "errors" per inning, while UZR is range and errors and "arm". FWIW, Ellsbury is also -3.7 runs with the "arm" at fangraphs.
Although that seems to be in implementation, since the glossary at fangraphs doesn't define things that way. According to the glosary, UZR is "Ultimate Zone Rating in Runs Above Average (Arm+DPR+RngR+ErrR)", and UZR/150 is just "UZR Runs Above Average per 150 Defensive Games"
141 games, Rngr -9.1, ErrR 0.1. Even if we go by his innings and divide -9 by 1208, then multiply by 1350 (150 games worth of innings), we get -10.05. Still doesn't jibe with his -11.0.
And Ellsbury's not the only one. Longoria, for example, is +13.4/150 and is +16.4 overall. It seems like the magnitude of every player's UZR is great than their UZR/150.
I think his offense has always been viewed in a distorted light. The comp that's been thrown around most often is Brett Butler, but he didn't start putting up the offensive numbers we think of with him until his age 28 season when he'd been playing in MLB for 5 years (3 full seasons).
Still, I think he's a perfectly good option. His speed DOES make up for a lot on defense and if he can hit .280+ while stealing 60+ bases at a good rate that's a pretty good player. The "next Sizemore" crap that was tossed around two years ago was always silly.
Are you sure it's not a "green monster" adjustment, scaling down for the balls that appear in zone but are uncatchable?
If it is, they weren't doing it last year. In 49 games with the Sox in left field Bay racked up a -8 UZR and a -24 UZR/150, with the math working out just right. I really don't know what's going on with the UZR/150 numbers this year.
As to the plus/minus stuff, can you give me a breakdown on Torii Hunter? I'd guess he's above average on deep flies, but -10 or more on shallow flies. He plays extremely deep and doesn't have the pure speed to catch the shallow bloops. Against Texas Erick Aybar basically converted himself into a center fielder to make one catch. He probably caught it about where Andruw Jones would have positioned himself back when he was still a great defender.
Hunter: -6 shallow, -5 medium, +16 deep. +5 on plays, +3 on runs... Ranked 15th.
Franklin Gutierrez is somehow +40... -4,+9,+35.
Bay is bad out there in left. I didnt notice it last year, but its been ugly this year.
Damon had a major leap forward in his 4th full season at age 25 and a great year in his 5th full season at age 26. Ellsbury in his 2nd full season at age 25 is having a comparable year to Damon's third full season at age 24. There is no reason that Ellsbury can't continue to improve over the next 1-3 seasons.
If Ellsbury turns out to be Damon with a little less power but more speed and a better arm; I and the Sox will be very happy and Jacoby will be reasonably wealthy.
Yes, but why would you do this?
Martinez starting behind the plate tonight for Beckett makes me think Playoff Tito is going to bench Captain Varitek.
The NESN guys -- I assume they were NESN, it was MLB.tv, and they seemed to talk about how awesome the Sox were a lot -- seemed convinced that a future without Varitek was not possible. Whether they meant the playoffs or next year, I dunno, but I'd be happy to see him playing fairly rarely come October.
I think that the "/150" figure is not based on 150 actual games, but the average number of opportunities a player would get in 150 games. If Ellsbury is getting more opportunities per game than average, he could have more than 150 games' worth in 141 actual games.
Every player I have checked this for has the same problem.
I love me some Playoff Tito.
You shouldn't but the MSM does it all the time.
See all the "Ryan Howard fastest to reach 200 HR articles"
The other option would be to sign a 1B or a 3B, put Lowell on the bench, and catch Martinez 125 games. Eh, let's do the offseason when the offseason comes.
I do agree that with all the days off in the playoffs, and the lack of groundball pitchers on the Sox staff, Lowell should be able to play everyday in the playoffs (if we make it). I've been assuming that'd be how things would work, and it's good to see Martinez catching Beckett, yeah.
unlike his alter ego, he is willing to use Papelbon in a tie game and also actually pinch-hit for someone.
Red Sox LF (everyone combined)
2005 -- 304 expected outs
2006 -- 330 expected outs
2007 -- 322 expected outs
2008 -- 328 expected outs
2009 -- 327 expected outs (prorates to 351)
So UZR is seeing more total chances for Red Sox LF this year. Why that is I have no idea. Maybe there have indeed been more balls hit to left.
Because there may be some useful information.
Damon and Ellsbury are only two years apart in the start of their careers. Damon was on the young side at 21 and I don't get the sense that Ellsbury was particularly old at 23 to break in.
The thing that caught my eye was that they both had a phenominal initial half-season, followed by a decline in their first full season, followed by a much better second season. It is also interesting to see if Ellsbury is catching up on an age-basis.
It actually is how I want to see them do it. I did not want to see a huge celebration on the field after the way they've coasted in to the end of the season. Granted coming back last night from 8-2 would've mitigated that feeling a bit, but overall it really feels like they're limping into Anaheim at this point.
Starters: Martinez, Youkilis, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Lowell, Bay, Ellsbury, Drew, Ortiz
Bench: Varitek, Kotchman, Lowrie, Baldelli, Gathright
Rotation: Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Matsuzaka
Bullpen: Papelbon, Okajima, Bard, Wagner, Ramirez, Saito, Wakefield
I think going into a playoff series without a long man is a bad idea. They need someone who can eat five innings if Buc or DiceK explodes. I definitely prefer Wakefield in that job to Bowden or Byrd or Tazawa. And with Martinez catching, we don't have to worry that our primary catcher will be flummoxed by a pitcher who's been on the staff all year.
-I took Saito and Ramirez over Delcarmen. I really love Manny D, but something pretty clearly seems to be wrong with him of late.
-I took Gathright as the 25th man, seems more likely the Sox will need a first pinch-runner than that they'll need a third pinch-hitter
-I took Varitek over Kottaras. Kottaras has three plate appearances in September.
They celebrated in the clubhouse anyway, which bugs me a bit, as irrational as that reaction is.
The Red Sox went with no long man in 2007, so they very well could do it again. I don't think it's a good idea.
Crazy UZR!
Most 25 year olds don't improve. They are pretty likely to have their best year at some point in the future but that's not really the same thing.
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