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1. toratoratora Posted: October 12, 2011 at 02:18 PM (#3960281)The end has been ugly, but most of the ride was sweet. Best of luck in Chicago
Mostly though, I remember when the Red Sox lost out on Billy Beane, when he decided to stay in Oakland, and then finding out that the team had promoted this young guy, a sabermetric guy, from Yale, named Theo Epstein. Everything I read about him reinforced the idea that he seemed like us, the people on this board. In that respect, he never disappointed. This interview on WEEI about JD Drew always reinforced that point for me. For the past 8 years the GM of the Red Sox got it, he got what it took to win baseball games. He had a plan, he had values for players that were enumerated in WAR or something like it. Sometimes it failed, too often lately perhaps, but the plan was there.
I may come to trust Cherington like I have Theo, and he seems like the obvious choice to replace him. Still, when you invest a lot of time and energy into following a team you hope that there's a plan on the other end. One of my best friends is a Mets fan, and he does not have it in him to invest in them, or hasn't over the past 8 years. This year there was a glimmer of hope when they traded K-Rod at the trade deadline, that with Alderson in town the adults might be in charge, that he could trust the front office. I haven't had to worry about that with the Red Sox since 2003. The Red Sox had the guy who went to Schilling's Thanksgiving, who signed Mark Bellhorn, Bill Mueller, David Ortiz, and JD Drew, and explained to dumb radio hosts what it takes to win baseball games. I'll miss that guy.
Do you know how many San Franciscan babies born this past year are named Sabean?
I really hated the Nomar trade.
I think the Cubs are getting a guy who is very smart and very good and will be quite happy with him.
Nomar's TZ/150 games at short in 2004 was -21, and in 2005 it was -36. UZR/150 has him at -16 and -18. In 2005, the Cubs moved him off shortstop to third base, and after 2005, he was shifted to first base. I think Theo identified that Garciaparra's injuries had robbed him of his ability to play shortstop, and he made the move he had to make.
There's a whole lot that can be done with the Cubs' roster, but I'm doubtful he can come right in and pull a 2002/2003 thing out of his hat.
But, all that said, I am sorry to see him go. I haven't had to worry about FO stuff for 8-9 years. I'm now worried, even though I will give Cherington wide leeway. In an odd way, having a new guy may also help with the house-cleaning that is coming, since he's not beholden to anything that's gone before, etc.
This hits the nail on the head for me.
Cherington is presumably OK -- sabermetrics properly instilled and maybe less egomaniac than Theo. If he's better on the free agents than Theo, I shall stop missing Dan Duquette so much. Yes, the supporting players were inferior, but Pedro, Manny, Wake and Damon -- THERE was a GM!
what's a bellhorn?
The thing that strike me about Theo (and the whole gang) is that they were at their best when had less to spend than they do now. When their payroll was around $120 mil, with Manny's large contract already on there, they seemed very good at finding value and very careful about handing out large contracts. But at some point, as that payroll grew toward where it is today, they started taking the approach that they didn't need to be especially careful with their money, often wasting it on reclamation projects that didn't pan out and expensive players who didn't deliver. It makes me seriously wonder if this team would have been just as good without ever increasing their payroll.
As for Theo, I think his legacy speaks for itself. I will be interested to see how he makes out in Chicago.
If you look closely, it's hard to call this trade a positive. Fangraphs says that Nomar was stinking it up as SS but then was fine after moving to Chicago and playing only 2/3 time. Did he recover as the year went on? Did the reduced schedule--which he had suggested to the Sox that he would need--allow him to play better? Whatever happened, he put up 1.2 fWAR the rest of the season to OCab's 0.8 and Minky's -0.5 (!). (FWIW, DRS sees the defensive split about the same way.)
BBRef tells a different story. His TZ was in the -20 range in both places, meaning he's credited with only 0.6 bbWAR in Chicago. It says that OCab was 1.2 and Minky was -0.6. By this calculation, it's a wash (leaving out Matt Murton).
Looking at it this closely may be putting too much stock in a 1/2 season of stats for each of these players. However, if you pull back and look at their full seasons, OCab was about replacement level, Minky was below, and Nomar was worth 1-2 wins. In on-field production, I can't see the benefit of the trade. In other matters, it meant that Nomar was not part of the Red Sox first championship, which was not a happy thing.
I think there are several things at work here:
The GM position has gained in public stature in recent years. The guys responsible for building teams are very much front in center throughout the baseball world.
It may not have been discussed in the past, but any FO exec who credited for building WS winners with two different franchises would likely be considered for the Hall of Fame. It's just that the recognition would largely come after they were done, rather than at while it was happening.
These are the Red Sox and Cubs, whose WS triumphs would be the two biggest of the last 50 years. That can't be undersold as far as stories go.
I'd say given sample size issues with UZR, we should look at the data and say "well, he was a butcher before the trade, and he was a butcher after the trade" and we should be skeptical of the UZR data in 1/3rd of a season which says otherwise.
The other thing I remember with that team was that it was groundball-heavy in its pitchers--3rd in the AL. I agree that the trade was mostly a wash at best, and that it really sucked that Nomar wasn't on the team that won, but I saw the process there, and I remember us discussing defensive platoons where Reese and Minky would play when Lowe pitched. There were also clear, non-baseball reasons why the team felt Nomar had to go (cf. 2011).
I recall reports of Nomar's unhappiness from national sources long before he was dumped. The impression I got was that he was a guy the club genuinely liked and respected, but they also saw him as being pretty miserable by mid-2004.
Because, generally speaking, people don't care about the White Sox. They're No. 2 in their own city. They had neither the longest drought (or history of ineptitude) that their lovable loser brethren had, nor the history of close calls that their colored hose rivals enjoyed. They didn't play in Wrigley or Fenway. They didn't steadfastly stick to day baseball and enjoy a spark in national interest through a super station and its drunken play-by-play man. They don't play in the shadow of ESPN nor had every two-bit wordsmith writing paeans to their quest.
They've just been a baseball team that went a long time without winning a World Series title. And they didn't even get to break the drought first. Or last.
Though, let's face it, if there was one thing in the pasts of all of these teams that would legitimately curse a franchise into championship darkness, you'd think the intentional losing of one would be it.
Arroyo and Bellhorn cost less than $1M combined and produced 6 WAR for the 2004 Sox.
They were also my two favorite Sox at the time. I loved Arroyo because he was an entertaining slop-thrower with a frisbee curve and a ludicrously high leg kick, and I love Bellhorn because of the high socks, ridiculous hair, and because other people hated him for striking out so much. Pokey Reese my ass.
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