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1. Dan Posted: May 28, 2012 at 03:10 PM (#4141711)so, cancer?
It's not too far-fetched, really.
The survivors of this edition are pleased to be taken off the hook.
And even if Pedroia is out for awhile, we've got Punto so we're good...right?
Good to see everyone has finally graduated from the Dice-K school of Nibbledom University. Phil Coorey eat your heart out!
Pedroia hurt now. The injuries will never end.
Posters 2,3,4 and 5 are waaay too negative. In true fashion, the medical staff will merely advise "rest" and THEN may act when it doesn't heal by August 20th.
He'll miss 3-4 weeks. If they let him try to play through, he'll suck and then tear the thing off the bone and miss the rest of the season.
With Pedroia out 3-4 weeks, the Red Sox need to find a stopgap 2B. The internal options are Ciriaco and Punto (yecch), or Iglesias to short and Aviles to second (probably not any better, plus you risk injuring Aviles). This demands a trade. Maybe, maybe, you could say that the ridiculous, I'll just play with a torn muscle in my bottom hand stuff is an attempt at a smokescreen for the trade market? Nah, that's just Pedey being Pedey.
Minnesota - Alexi Casilla - One more arb year and then FA so his salary will jump. The Twins may find a prospect more interesting than paying him $2.5-3 million next year.
Kansas City - Irving Falu and Johnny Giavotella
Oakland - Jemile Weeks - Not happening
Seattle - Dustin Ackley - Not happening
San Diego - Orlando Hudson - Pass/Everth Cabrera - Not happening
Colorado - Marco Scutaro - We know what we're getting, do we want to pick up $4 million for that? Some OBP, not much range, this trade is looking good right now, I love the guy but don't feel compelled to have him rush back.
Cubs - Darwin Barney - He's still a year away from arbitration so there is no rush for the Cubs to move him. Not so good that Theo would feel like he had to keep him though if the Sox made a decent offer, you're giving up the glove for a little pop.
Houston - Jose Altuve - Not happening
Not a perfect list, I didn't go looking for utility types or anything like that. There are probably some outside the box type options that exist but the guy that looks attainable at a reasonable price and likely to help is probably Casilla though I may be misreading how much the Twins like him.
Blake DeWitt from the Cubs is the first guy I thought of. He shouldn't really cost anything - maybe a minor league relief arm. He can play the position and post a not-entirely-embarrassing OPS.
One little thing. Rest-of-season ZiPS projection for LNP: 238/328/325. If he can do that, he's playable at second. I'm skeptical he can do that.
Ditto. What is the thinking here? In some magical world where you could get a cromulent starting pitcher or legit corner outfielder for him, then sure. But I can't imagine that being the case, given his age and recent injury history- not to mention that anyone aquiring Youkilis is probably in win-now mode, and thus not giving up major league talent. I also can't imagine anyone in their right mind being comfortable with the depth on the current Sox team given the insane injuries so far this year. Middlebrooks will probably pick up a fractured skull in the shower the day Youkilis gets dealt.
Starting pitching - Something better than Daniel Bard is the bar here. Not sure what is available there.
Relief Pitching - If they trade Youkilis for a reliever I'm taking a human life. Alternatively, you could view acquiring a starter as relief help by virtue of moving Bard to the bullpen if the Sox want to go that route. I think that is best done (at least at first) by giving the ball to Daisuke a few times.
Outfield - A big slugger might be a good fit. The A's have a dude in right who is hitting homers, he might help. The outfield version of Kevin Youkilis probably would be a worthwhile exchange. Is Middlebrooks + OF Youkilis > Youkilis + Sweeney? (OF Youkilis = Josh Willingham maybe?)
Second base - When Pedroia comes back next week and rips the thumb tendon and is out for the year this might be a spot for a move.
Shortstop - Aviles has done a great job but he's a guy that can be improved upon probably but good shortstops don't get moved very often.
The problem with all of these is you are going to have to trade Kevin Youkilis to a contender or go for the Theo Epstein Memorial Magnum Opus Seven Team Trade. A "seller" is not going to have any interest in acquiring Youk straight up and a contender probably isn't going to be interested in dealing a player who represents an upgrade over what the Sox already have.
The logic under which it makes sense to "intend" to trade Youkilis is if he has very little value to the team compared to his trade value. If Youkilis' defense is really bad, and Middlebrooks is a competent MLB hitter, that could be the case. Youkilis' defensive stats are perfectly fine in a small sample, however. I'm not entirely sold on Middlebrooks - that K/BB is not good - and I'd much rather err on the side of having depth in hitters who can get on base.
I can imagine the evaluations and analysis under which intending to trade Youk makes sense, but my own evaluations don't accord with those imagined evaluations, and I think the imagined logic is at least partly faulty. (And, of course, the wording of one tweet is pretty weak evidence that those are the evaluations or analysis of the Red Sox baseball ops staff.)
The starting rotation could really use another arm, but the story from Lucchino and Cherington about Oswalt is that they didn't think they needed another arm at Oswalt's level, and it's hard to imagine the Sox getting someone that much better than Oswalt for Youkilis.
(a) Trade for a major league contributor to upgrade a replacement level position, or
(b) Trade for an All-Star to upgrade an averageish position
Obviously an (ab) where you get an All-Star where previously you had Nicky Punto is the best kind. The problem with the Youkilis rumor is that it's hard to imagine Youkilis bringing back a legitimate star to upgrade an averageish position like SS or corner OF, and it's hard identify where the Red Sox expect to have replacement level production over the course of the rest of the year. CF is a gaping hole right now, but if any of Ellsbury or Kalish or even Crawford comes back healthy, they can take over the position. The back of the rotation is a candidate, but what contending club trades away good pitchers in midsummer?
They seem like a team that might have a SP surplus. And even if they don't get back into contention this year, they are not in re-building mode and could use Youk's 2013.
Looking at Arizona there isn't a pitcher they'd give up that would make sense for the Sox and I don't think the Sox deal Youk for Jason Kubel.
The White Sox similarly don't seem to have any players the Sox would want.
Milwaukee?? Might they view Youk as a 1st base upgrade and be willing to deal a pitcher? That seems a bit hopeful from the Sox perspective but that might be a place to start a conversation.
I also think it's even money at best that any team would pick up Youk with 2013 in mind. $13 million for a guy who clearly is declining next year is a tough one. At best Youk is still effective but limited in terms of playing time, at worst you pick up a $13 million .240 hitter.
Youkilis for Saunders plus something?
Youkilis plus something for Kennedy?
The Snakes have Bauer down in the minors chopping down hitters like trees.
WHY THE HECK DID THEY TRADE HOWARD EHMKE FOR BABY DOLL JACOBSON? Ira Flagstead can't carry the whole outfield himself.
Assuming what MCoA heard to be true I don't see Saunders or Kennedy getting the Sox' motor running.
The Snakes need to call Bauer up largely because my fantasy team took a shot in the nuts this week when Weaver went down.
Not to get too ridiculous on how closely I read that (OK, I'm getting a bit ridiculous) but "we haven't told any teams we plan to trade him" is very different from "we have told teams we don't have plans to trade him." If I'm a GM and I hear the first I think "hmmm...they're willing to listen", the latter will have me thinking "they need to be blown away."
This is one of the things I hate about Twitter. It's one thing to have a story blow up based on some information and analysis but Knobler uses one key word and really with no attribution of note and no analysis on his part the story blows up. PeteAbe has a blog post up that concludes with "prepare yourself for the Sox to be active on the trade market. At this point, it's not if, it's when." despite nothing more than guesswork, there is no thought or analysis involved other than "Jacoby Ellsbury is a Scott Boras client."
I am not trying to slap Knobler around, like I said I don't know him from a hole in the ground. I have no doubt that he was reporting what he was told accurately but Twitter allows the writers to avoid any sort of critical thinking. I think the biggest failing that a lot of the MSM writers have is that they get information and run with it without any "does this make sense" consideration. Knobler says the Sox "intend" to trade Youk, Cafardo reports that several teams are looking at him and then everyone runs with Cherington's denial but none of these people takes the time or effort to put together a full story.
Rant over.
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