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   1. Chris Needham Posted: July 27, 2005 at 03:12 AM (#1501121)
I thought this was a thread about the Nationals!

(Is that the first Nats hijack?)
   2. . . . . . . Posted: July 27, 2005 at 03:15 AM (#1501139)
we knew from the start that
things fall apart, intentions shatter
   3. Rough Carrigan Posted: July 27, 2005 at 03:25 AM (#1501184)
Oh god.
Please, no Millar to right field on a regular basis. I saw a few games at Fenway from the right field box seats when Millar was in right and it was comically bad. His first step typically ocurred just a split second before the ball hit the grass in front of the warning track. Please don't put Millar in right on a regular basis.
   4. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 27, 2005 at 03:26 AM (#1501187)
I want Petagine up, but not if it means Millar in right.
   5. Josh Posted: July 27, 2005 at 03:28 AM (#1501192)
Give Youks more time at 2B in the minors while Dustin is hurt -- bring up Roberto! FREE ROBERTO!

This does make trading Millar trickier. Minus Jay, the Sox have little OF depth, now, unless you count Kapler as "depth."
   6. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 27, 2005 at 03:33 AM (#1501202)
Apropos of nothing, Chip Ambres is 6-13 with a BB, a 2B, and 2 SB so far for Kansas City.
   7. Darren Posted: July 27, 2005 at 03:42 AM (#1501231)
Everyone is calling for Petagine to replace Millar, but... Olerud is now hitting .278.329.389 . That's putrid, and not particularly out of line with what you'd expect.

Cutting him and bringing up Pet would be a big plus on offense and also allow the Sox to platoon him with Millar. Defense would suffer of course.
   8. Larry Bowa Posted: July 27, 2005 at 04:35 AM (#1501391)
Fellas,

I'm here to tell you Nixon will go on the 15-day DL... and may take longer than that to recover. That is a crippling blow.

Free... Adam Stern! to play RF.

I can't wait to hear why Tito put two of his supposedly "good" middle relievers in the 3rd-5th instead of the long man who cam in after those two.

Just one crazy ****ing game.

Oh... and 4 more loses by the Phillies and they may be in the mood to trade Wagner. Keep sticking your pins in your Ed Wade dolls.

Your pal,
Larry
   9. jordan Posted: July 27, 2005 at 05:02 AM (#1501437)
I don't know about everyone else, but I was shocked when I saw Bradford facing Huff. I could not believe my eyes. If you look at Bradford's career peripheral splits, you will see that he has always been very bad against lefties. Francona almost cost the Sox the game. I would never allow Bradford to face a lefty (especially one with power) unless the game is out of hand.
   10. Sexy Lizard Posted: July 27, 2005 at 10:13 AM (#1501669)
Re: Nixon's probably move to the DL:

And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches from Pawtucket to be born?
   11. Mikαεl Posted: July 27, 2005 at 11:21 AM (#1501674)
Kapler can't come off the DL for another week or so, yet. No other minor league outfielders are anywhere close to ML ready.

My guess is that Hyzdu/Stern take the job and a AAA pitcher - say, DiNardo - takes the spot. The Sox bullpen is pretty dead.

If the Red Sox use this as an opportunity to play Petagine, I hope they mean it. He deserves a real shot. Justice, fair play, the American way and all that.
   12. NTNgod Posted: July 27, 2005 at 12:06 PM (#1501685)
Kapler can't come off the DL for another week or so, yet.

Saturday, actually, if the Providence Journal is correct.

A Ramirez/Damon/Millar outfield is rather Yankee-like. You big market teams with your crappy pitching and your crappy defenses. Tsk tsk :P

(not that the Brewers defense has been any great shakes, mind you - although, somehow, until the last couple of days, it led the NL in Def. EFF most of this season for reasons I cannot explain. Observation and numbers were clashing there... I think Rich Dauer's unorthodox positioning setup screws with the defensive metrics.)
   13. Mikαεl Posted: July 27, 2005 at 12:22 PM (#1501687)
A Ramirez/Damon/Millar outfield is rather Yankee-like. You big market teams with your crappy pitching and your crappy defenses. Tsk tsk :P

One of the reasons I'm not too, too scared of Millar in the outfield is that Trot Nixon is having a terrible year, defensively. The Red Sox currently have four 1B/DH types in the starting lineup. Switching out Nixon for Petagine wouldn't hurt the defense too much.

Looking at the roster and schedule, I guess the Sox could call up DiNardo for Clement - they have a judiciously placed off day, so the team could run a 4-man rotation and 7-man pen for a little bit.

Then call up Petagine for Nixon, DFA Bausher, and when Kapler's ready, dump Hyzdu. It's quite obvious that Tito won't play Hyzdu, and he's completely redundant with Kapler around.

Then you need some sort of rotation system at 1B/RF with Kapler, Petagine and Millar. I expect Tito will rotate Kapler and Millar into the starting lineup everyday. Ugh.
   14. Mikαεl Posted: July 27, 2005 at 12:24 PM (#1501689)
I think Rich Dauer's unorthodox positioning setup screws with the defensive metrics.

How so? That sounds interesting.

I've watched a few Brewers games just to see Weeks - and I like their announcing team - and I didn't notice anything particularly weird on defense, though I wasn't looking for it.
   15. Mikαεl Posted: July 27, 2005 at 12:35 PM (#1501696)
Freedom Update: 295/410/535
   16. JB H Posted: July 27, 2005 at 12:47 PM (#1501702)
Hey Mikael, can you do a weighted average of Stern's MLEs? With his sporadic playing time it won't be super reliable, but I suspect he's a better option than Millar and Kapler vs RHP in RF, and I kind of doubt it's all that close (assuming he's miles ahead of Millar defensively and a bit better than Kapler)
   17. villageidiom Posted: July 27, 2005 at 12:54 PM (#1501710)
I would never allow Bradford to face a lefty (especially one with power) unless the game is out of hand.

Myers is just as bad against righties as Bradford against lefties, so I assume you would also "never" use Myers against a righty unless the game was out of hand. Francona used him against three righties last night, and not a peep out of you?

OK, let's just assume you're being kind to Francona and being quiet about it. And let's put you in the manager's seat. You've got 6.2 innings to cover. Your bullpen choices are Schilling, Myers, Bradford, Gonzalez, Delcarmen, and Timlin. With the Rays lineup the way it is (no more than two consecutive LHB or RHB), and your absolute rules about Bradford and (presumably) Myers, neither one of them should be trusted to face more than two batters.

With their OBP's against - on the good splits - it's most likely that they will allow one of the batters they face to reach, meaning that you're likely only getting three outs from them. That leaves 4 relievers to pitch 5.2 innings, assuming you don't go extra innings and that you don't care if anyone is fresh for the next afternoon. And that bunch includes the guy who's never thrown a pitch in the majors, because your emergency innings-eater was DFA'ed prior to the game.

Instead of choosing that path, Francona chose to bring in Bradford when 4 of the next 5 batters were righties, then had Myers pitch 2+ innings. There's no way I can fault him for that.

I'm not thrilled that Huff hit him hard, nor am I surprised. But Bradford should have been out of the inning before that. I know the Devil Rays are fast, but come on - three infield hits in one inning?!
   18. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'. Posted: July 27, 2005 at 12:54 PM (#1501712)
Mikael, where do you get MLE's?
   19. covelli chris p Posted: July 27, 2005 at 12:56 PM (#1501713)
ya know, papelbon's pitching schedule has been matching clements recently ... and he did have 8 k's in 5 innings yesterday. yeah i know he's not on the 40 man, but he's the best pitcher they have in the minor leagues.
   20. jordan Posted: July 27, 2005 at 01:44 PM (#1501774)
Villageidiom,you do make some good points. Francona was in a difficult position and I realize that. However, that does not mean that that Bradford should have faced Huff with the bases loaded.

As far as my statement about Bradford and not facing lefties, you're right that statement implies that Myers should not be used against lefties. I do have to admit that even though I still stand by what I said, yesterday's game may have been the exception to the rule. But I still insist that Bradford should not have faced Huff.

What I would have done is replace Clement with Gonzalez and have him pitch a couple innings. If you asumme Bradford is already in the game, I would have put in Myers in the game to face Huff since the bases were loaded and Huff is their best hitter (based on career stats). I then would have stuck with Myers no matter what happened for 1-2 innings.

I would have allowed Myers to face righties while not allowing Huff to face Bradford mostly because the bases were loaded and Huff is a really good hitter who has been hot lately. If Myers gives up a hit to Huff, I would stick with him against the next righty. The difference here would be that Bradford was close to coming out of the game anyway when he was facing Huff. He was never going to pitch 2 innings and a lefty specialist was available.
   21. Rudy Pemberton Posted: July 27, 2005 at 01:48 PM (#1501781)
That was probably the most poorly managed game I've seen in a long time.

Nixon starting vs. a lefty? Check.

Mirabelli batting third? Check.

Bringing in your situational relievers in the THIRD inning and saving your long man for a tie game in the 7th? Check.

Letting Bradford face Huff and then pulling him ONE batter later? Check.

Sveum sending Olerud with ONE out in a tie game? Check.

There are many other things that I forgot about.
   22. Rudy Pemberton Posted: July 27, 2005 at 01:49 PM (#1501783)
Oh I remembered another....

PH Olerud in a tie game and Ortiz when down two? Check.

Preferring Olerud vs. rested LOOGY Miller rather than Hyzdu vs. tired Brazelton. Check!
   23. jordan Posted: July 27, 2005 at 02:00 PM (#1501808)
Rudy, I have no problem batting Mirabelli third against Hendrickson since he owns him. It actually paid off when Mirabelli got an RBI single. I am actually happy that Francona is willing to be so creative which makes me think that it is Theo's idea.
   24. 1k5v3L Posted: July 27, 2005 at 02:24 PM (#1501850)
Nixon should've gotten up early with A-rod to work on his agility.

Lazy fck.
   25. Rudy Pemberton Posted: July 27, 2005 at 02:39 PM (#1501886)
Batting Mirabelli third against Hendrickson presents a problem later in the game, though, once Hendrickson is gone (and that usually happens early!). I have no problem with him playing, but I'd bat him lower and you have to be willing to pull him for a PH.

I guess I just find it inconsistent to play Belli because he kills lefties (esp. Hendrickson) AND keep Nixon in the lineup becaues he's Trot.
   26. Mikαεl Posted: July 27, 2005 at 02:50 PM (#1501909)
I'd add that batter/pitcher splits are probably the most useless pieces of statastical debris floating around on the web.

I'm quite convinced that certain hitters will do better than expected against certain pitchers.

I'm even more convinced that in a 10 PA sample, the noise will vastly overwhelm anything useful.
   27. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: July 27, 2005 at 03:13 PM (#1501963)
three infield hits in one inning?!

Is that counting the one off Clement's squash? That was headed for center field, and ended up in left field, anyway, so it wasn't an infield hit.
   28. TomH Posted: July 27, 2005 at 03:18 PM (#1501978)
batter/pitcher splits:

Out of all of the as-yet-uncovered issues (sometimes called "Hilbert problems") in MLB stat analysis, batter/pitcher splits may be the biggest.

We have mostly agreed that the platoon difference is almost universal, and in general increases with ability (i.e., pitch a lefty against Bonds!)

But beyond that, what do we know? Do some guys own other individuals, or is it that some hitters really can't hit fastballs or curves?

I did a pretty large piece of research a while back that was published for all of the SABR-ites, and can be found at http://www.philbirnbaum.com/, Fenruary 1999 issue, which showed that fly-ball hitters in general fare better against ground-ball pitchers, and vice-versa.

If anyne has seen other analysis in this area, I'd love to know about it.
   29. villageidiom Posted: July 27, 2005 at 03:20 PM (#1501987)
Letting Bradford face Huff and then pulling him ONE batter later? Check.

Slamming Francona for something he didn't do? Check.

Bradford finished the inning, TWO batters later.

Bringing in your situational relievers in the THIRD inning and saving your long man for a tie game in the 7th? Check.

I believe they were in a, er, situation in the third. Isn't the idea of optimal reliever usage that you bring them in based on the game situation instead of in a particular inning? Sheesh.

Mirabelli batting third? Check.

Batting order matters little. Please calm down.
   30. villageidiom Posted: July 27, 2005 at 03:24 PM (#1501993)
Is that counting the one off Clement's squash?

Yes. An infield hit is usually something freaky, or some insufficient defense. That one was certainly the former.
   31. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: July 27, 2005 at 03:36 PM (#1502030)
An infield hit is usually something freaky

I wouldn't call that ball an infield hit for the two reasons I cited above. If Clement's head doesn't get in the way of it, Damon fields it.
   32. Rudy Pemberton Posted: July 27, 2005 at 03:56 PM (#1502077)
Tito let Bradford face Huff with two outs and the bases loaded...that's not optimal usage. It didn't make sense.

It's almost as if Tito thinks you can only bring in a long man when you are getting killed...had Bradford not given up the Hr, we probably would have seen Timlin in the 5th.
   33. tfbg9 Posted: July 27, 2005 at 03:56 PM (#1502080)
This Nixon injury is gonna make the games less fun to watch, UNLESSS they finally try Petagine in there and he hits close to his MLE's. Then we'll come back stronger as a team, with an extra bat, and we'll have a good nightly storyline in Roberto. That's my hope.

Darren, I did not like the Olerude signing right from the start; Olerude is useless in any non-defensice replacement role and has been for a couple of years now. At least KFF can pinch-hit for Cora/Graffanino in Sep/Oct.

The Globe story said any injury like Trot's should be at the least weeks, maybe a month. And he got hurt in as game where he was starting vs a LHP. Nice.
   34. OlePerfesser Posted: July 27, 2005 at 04:39 PM (#1502200)
This Nixon injury is gonna make the games less fun to watch

Not if Tito gets creative, teddy.

Modest proposal: Platoon Stern/Hyzdu in RF, and Bradford/Myers on the mound in the 7th or 8th innings.

Say you bring in Bradford to face the righties due up, and when a lefty comes up you send Bradford to RF (hey, just like in little league, you put the riskiest glove in right) and bring in Myers. Then you swap Bradford and Myers back and forth as needed for as long as they're effective.

You don't really care about losing Stern or Hyzdu, and you just bring the other guy in when Chike Myford is through chewing up the opposing lineup.

If we start seeing Chike shagging balls in RF, we'll know (a) Tito lurks at Sox Therapy, and (b) he's got huge brass balls.
   35. covelli chris p Posted: July 27, 2005 at 04:46 PM (#1502217)
OP, you can't do that in the AL without giving up the DH.
   36. OlePerfesser Posted: July 27, 2005 at 05:41 PM (#1502347)
Denied!
   37. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 27, 2005 at 06:58 PM (#1502591)
###### sideways. Nixon to DL...DiNardo called up.

What the hell is wrong with Petagine?!?!?!??!?!
   38. tfbg9 Posted: July 27, 2005 at 07:04 PM (#1502616)
Dinardo has better taste in rock music.
   39. GGC Posted: July 28, 2005 at 12:58 AM (#1503817)
I did a pretty large piece of research a while back that was published for all of the SABR-ites, and can be found at http://www.philbirnbaum.com/, Fenruary 1999 issue, which showed that fly-ball hitters in general fare better against ground-ball pitchers, and vice-versa.

I recall that BRJ piece. Good stuff.
   40. NTNgod Posted: July 28, 2005 at 02:01 AM (#1503989)
I've watched a few Brewers games just to see Weeks - and I like their announcing team - and I didn't notice anything particularly weird on defense, though I wasn't looking for it.

Well, think of it as a mini-shift on virtually *every* hitter based on previous data. During the NYY/MIL series earlier this year, some of the Yankee chatterers picked up on. If the game you're watching has tight camera angles, it can be difficult to see.

There'll be seemingly several plays a game the Brewers will get outs on that typical defenses wouldn't, simply because the defender is already right where the ball is hit. The system may help mask other defensive deficiencies, since the Brewers will get 'free' gimme outs.

I'm assuming that zone systems are based on static zones, and they don't take into account where the fielder is actually playing.

I believe the Brewers are the only team to have gone to strictly video scouting (no advance scouts), in conjunction with whatever hit charts and such they use.
In the future, if you're watching the Brewer feeds, and they make mention of 'the alien defense', they're talking about Dauer's defensive system.
   41. Darren Posted: July 28, 2005 at 02:09 AM (#1504022)
One of the reasons I'm not too, too scared of Millar in the outfield is that Trot Nixon is having a terrible year, defensively.

Just wanted to respond this, though very late in doing so. Zone Rating puts Nixon in the upper half of RF this year. He may not look great, and he's a bit of blockhead, but it seems like he's getting the job done.
   42. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: July 28, 2005 at 02:42 AM (#1504170)
###### sideways. Nixon to DL...DiNardo called up.

What the hell is wrong with Petagine?!?!?!??!?!


DiNardo was a response to the bullpen being overworked after Clement going down. Why would Petagine be the response? The Sox already have two 1B.
When the Sox DFA Olerud and Millar, Petagine will be up. Dropping Millar makes more sense now because there are 5 OF and Millar's 'versatility' is less needed. I can hope, can't I?
   43. Mikαεl Posted: July 28, 2005 at 11:49 AM (#1504505)
NTN - that's really frickin' cool. I'm watching me some Brewers games this weekend.
   44. villageidiom Posted: July 28, 2005 at 01:02 PM (#1504544)
Tito let Bradford face Huff with two outs and the bases loaded...that's not optimal usage. It didn't make sense.

Letting relievers face only two batters when you've got 19 outs to go is not optimal usage.

My point all along has been that the conditions themselves were suboptimal, and require that you abandon any hard "X should never pitch to Y" rules in order to keep your team afloat. Given that, and given that they were bound to use Bradford at some point, bringing him in during the only stretch in the batting order where he could get some outs is optimal usage.

It's almost as if Tito thinks you can only bring in a long man when you are getting killed...

You can't bring in a long man if he was DFA'ed prior to the game.

had Bradford not given up the Hr, we probably would have seen Timlin in the 5th.

Oooh, a strawman! I love it!

I wouldn't call that ball an infield hit for the two reasons I cited above.

True. I'm more disappointed in the "real" infield hits. They were asking Bradford to get two outs that inning. With two infield hits in his tenure, he effectively had to get four outs.

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