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If there's one thing the post Nomar (or maybe, Post OC) era has taught us, is that regardless what we might think, the club's SS play can always get worse.
Love the guy, have nothing bad to say about him. But he's not the answer.
and
There was a fair amount of stuff alleged in 03 and 04 that Nomie wanted out, was pouting,
that he was a California type guy who was wigged and tired by the Red Sox fishbowl bit.
Of course he gonna lay that PR crap on us now. But, maybe he had a change of heart. I dunno. He was well-loved, that's
for sure.
How about that Angel Hernandez, BTW? Another proud union member--like Bivvo.
I think he was honest in 2003-04, that it was wearing on him, that he was sick of it. I also think he's honest now, too, that he misses it.
But I wonder how long he'd be missing it if the Fenway Faithful started noticing a 77 OPS+ and reacted accordingly. A few years ago I had a chance to run into a former high school classmate of mine who in high school was drop dead gorgeous, but when I met her in 2004 she looked like she'd been shot through the forest and hit every tree. And Nomar's hit plenty of trees in his time.
People tend to look worse 70 years later. (Ha! Finally I get to call someone else old!)
I could dig up the quotes from the time, but that's boring. Let's just say I don't remember it quite that way. You should read that whole article that I linked though. Nomar discusses how he didn't really understand the business side of baseball at the time.
People tend to look worse 70 years later. (Ha! Finally I get to call someone else old!)
Hey, man, it was only 42 years, so don't be rude. But my only advice here would be not to spend 30 years living in rural Washington State picking apples for a living, and without a dental plan or apparently even a toothbrush. It was frighteningly close to this.
"One National League team's scouting report on Nomar Garciaparra describes him as "a gap hitter with developing power, but not expected to hit more than 10-15 homers . . . deep in-the-hole range . . . above-average speed, can steal anywhere from 20-40 bases . . . competitive, smart.""- The Boston Globe, March 4 1996
"Garciaparra, whose weight had increased to 165 pounds by the time Boston took him with the 12th pick of the '94 draft, is now a chiseled 180 thanks to weightlifting, protein shakes and his mother's carne asada, which she has been known to deliver, packed in ice, to Boston."- Sports Illustrated- September 1, 1997
Nomah's stats at Boston, 1997: .306, 44 2B, 30 HR, .534 SLG in 684 AB
Got to get me some of that carne asada...
You need to stop working at Dairy Queen.
Last time I heard Red Sox fans complain this much ... was 2004.
Then you don't follow too many Sox blogs or posted articles with comments. With the Sox fans the pants pissing begins early in spring training and will last until they win the series or are eliminated...every single year. And yes, I am a Sox fan.
2004 was fun around here - but yeah I did lose my marbles fairly often - however - this team is worth complaining about - besides were does being positive in life get you?
Well, they have played .500 ball for a multiple-month period now, and a division lead has turned into a large deficit.
Only then, we traded Nomar at the deadline. Whereas this time, we traded a SS, who has proceeded to hit like vintage Nomar with his new team.
Well thank #### for that! ;-)
Would that improve his range?
Concur on all points, including being a Sox fan. My own team's fans drive me insane. Everyone is all Chicken-Little-waaahhhh-the-sky-is-falling-cry-wolf-Wolf-WOLLLLLLLLLFFFFFFFFFF. You'd think 2004, much less 2007, never happened.
No, it happened in 2007 too :)
The lineup please!
Boston SS, 2009 (to date):
Julio Lugo, 88 OPS+
Nick Green, 70 OPS+
Alex Gonzalez, 42 OPS+ (for season)
Jed Lowrie, 12 OPS+
In 2004 we didn't have four giant sucking sounds at the bottom of the lineup, so it wasn't a huge deal that Pedro was merely good rather than great, that Lowe was frequently awful, and that the bullpen had some problems.
This has been a .500 team for two months now and have shown few signs of real life.
The lineup please!
Boston SS, 2009 (to date):
Julio Lugo, 88 OPS+
Nick Green, 70 OPS+
Alex Gonzalez, 42 OPS+ (for season)
Jed Lowrie, 12 OPS+
Let it be known for the record that this fairminded Yankee fan had nothing to do with introducing that lineup to our attention....
But OTOH, ouch! I honestly didn't realize that things were that bad up there....
Having a sweet metabolism helps.
Setting aside the gloom-and-doom Sox fans for a moment, how do we have four giant sucking sounds? I count two--Ortiz and whoever plays shortstop. Drew hasn't been good but he's hardly a sucking sound with that .826 OPS. Ditto Bay despite having been awful for two months, Varitek (.751 OPS is actually decent for a catcher), Ellsbury (again, .748 OPS is decent for a CF). If you're referring to Kotchman, he's not a starter--he's only in the lineup because Youk is suspended.
Who are the four?
I think that this is a perfectly reasonable juncture to be venting a bit. The team is not doing that well.
I love your diplomatic approach. All the "pants-pissing" jokes aside, we do tend to be somewhat negative at times. However, your(and mine) concern is genuine. The team right now is stuck on a plane of total mediocrity, which isn't getting it done.
We all know the talent is there, I just keep waiting for the winning 12 of 17 stretch to happen. After the Toronto series, they have a decent stretch of home games which should help.
"giant sucking sound"
I thought that was sound of spots 3-5 in the rotation?
I completely agree here. The "average fan", though, is taking this to an extreme. The ESPN boards are full of people screeching that Theo should be canned, Varitek put up in front of the firing squad, etc.
I also agree that the rotation is the real problem. Thankfully we should be getting Wake back, and Youkilis is definitely back soon.
I'm still a bit surprised they released Smoltz so quickly. It's not like he was Bruce Chen or something. I'd have tried him in the pen (while pushing Delcarmen into low-leverage duty--he has been much worse than his ERA).
ouch. I guess sections 4-5 are worse
Certainly DH and whoever's manning SS right now. Drew has been hitting like a pitcher for nearly two months, which makes me wonder if he's trying to play injured. Varitek hasn't been hitting either. (Getting VMart has limited 'Tek's playing time a little.)
They're 4th in runs scored, which is far from horrible, but with 3/5 of the rotation not up to par playing in that park you need better offense than they have.
I'd probably have tried Smoltz in some low leverage innings in the pen. I assume he had objected to that role when I saw he had been DFA'd only to hear that he wondered aloud why they hadn't put him in the bullpen. Bizarre. (Of course I hated watching him pitch, but that's not definitive of anything.)
Just what I was thinking. Maybe he pissed them off or something. Makes you wonder again how his departure from Atlanta truly went.
Good riddance.
$35k per day on the roster; $500k bonus if traded. Smoltz making ~$250k per week to be the... 5th (?) man out of the bullpen is not worth it. Basically his role would be to pitch the 6th inning in every Penny start.
On Opening Day, did anyone anticipate this statement?
clap, clap, clap-clap-clap
JE-TER'S BET-TER
clap, clap, clap-clap-clap
Probably not. I have a higher opinion of Wake than a lot of people do, but I didn't realize he'd be crucial. It just goes to show that despite the best-laid plans, a cascade of injuries and ineffectiveness at one spot can wreck everything.
No, I suppose not. He also might have anticipated what might have happened to him if he stunk up the joint the way he did, that the contract would give the team a strong incentive to simply cut him, the way they did.
Never thought the return of Wakefield would be thing that could save the season, as it were.
Though when Wake returns I expect Coorey's head to explode...
Anyone have any early thoughts on Gonzalez' defense so far? I haven't seen every out of every game this week but what I've seen I haven't seen any glaringly obvious plays where range/arm strength was an issue and simply the absence of baseballs going into the third row has been a nice improvement.
I thought the ground ball by Ruiz that loaded the bases in the 6th was a good example. Green likely tries to make the play even though he had no chance and runs the risk of throwing the ball away and allowing a run or runs to score on the play. Gonzalez makes the smarter play and Buchholz gets out of it.
- Boston Pants-Pissers Inc.
466 PA, .226 AVG, .320 OBP, .435 SLG (19 home runs)
Ortiz since May 31st:
263 PA, .258 AVG, .346 OBP, .550 SLG (18 home runs)
Since the All-star Break:
125 PA, .239 AVG, .328 OBP, .486 SLG (7 home runs)
He's not getting a lot of hits, and his walks are down from where he was a couple years ago, but since June, he's been hitting for plenty of power -- ISO of .292 since May 31, .247 since ASB (his career ISO is .263).
--Boston fan, after a loss on August 6, 2004
(the team was 9 games over .500 heading into May, and was 9 games over .500 heading into August 6th).
Ok, so you made me curious...
The lineup for that August 6, 2004 game, compared to the lineup for the August 19, 2009 game:
2004: 2009:C .844 OPS C .854 OPS
1B .713 OPS 1B .751 OPS
2B .784 OPS 2B .657 OPS
SS .623 OPS SS .557 OPS
3B .802 OPS 3B .983 OPS
LF 1.027 OPS LF .916 OPS
CF .842 OPS CF .754 OPS
RF .724 OPS RF .815 OPS
DH .827 OPS DH .755 OPS
The 2004 team was playing in an offensive context in which teams score 5.01 RPG. The 2009 team is playing in a context of 4.83 RPG.
I've been saying this since April and still believe it
We know the offense isn't top notch but they are still competent, we know the defense is not good but maybe Gonzalez steadies things a bit and maybe Lowell stays perpendicular to Earth for a few more weeks, BUT if the pitching is as good as I think it is this team could still make some big noises in October. Lestah is a monstah
Lestah is a monstah
Agreed.
But first Lugo, now Smoltz... Theo has a huge Christmas gift coming his way from STL...
Apparently they have a useful 1st baseman who is coming off contract in a 2011, we'll just take him as compensation.
I was actually expecting a no hitter, levski.
3 hits, 9Ks, I can't effing believe it really, he couldn't get through a lineup twice with us and now he morphs into...well, John Smoltz actually.
That's o.k. Phil, because here comes Wake, just for you mate in those nice critical games of Sept.!
nice to have the mlb network. Although I didnt realize that Lincecum/Martinez was on until 8pm when it was already the 5th.
Gonzalez is now at an 83 OPS+ with Boston in an admittedly small sample. More importantly...
Lugo, -8 UZR (-39 per 150)
Green, +3 UZR (+5)
Gonzalez, +2 UZR (+13)
Lowrie, +3 UZR (+22)
(UZR per Fangraphs)
Gonzalez is playing short of what was expected out of Lowrie this year, but those were fairly lofty expectations for a SS. Almost certainly Gonzalez has stopped the bleeding.
The question remains open whether Jed Lowrie is worth the effort. I think he is, just on potential and cost control, but as we've seen this year it's hard to make it through a season when your starting SS spends so much time on the DL. It's hard to picture Lowrie remaining healthy, ever. If they go into 2010 with Lowrie as plan B, is that a bad thing? And how do they swing that?
OK, enough of that... It's still 2009, and they're in line for the playoffs as of now. Let's look at the road ahead:
1 vs Baltimore: 1-0
3 vs Tampa Bay: 2-1
3 vs LA Angels: 2-1
3 at Baltimore: 2-1
4 at Kansas City: 3-1
3 at NY Yankees: 1-2
3 vs Toronto: 2-1
4 vs Cleveland: 3-1
Total projected: 16-8
Final record: 96-66
For Texas:
1 at Cleveland: 1-0
3 vs Seattle: 2-1
3 vs Oakland: 3-0
3 vs LA Angels: 2-1
4 at Oakland: 3-1
3 vs Tampa Bay: 2-1
4 at LA Angels: 1-3
3 at Seattle: 1-2
Total projected: 15-9
Final record: 93-69
The bottom line is that Boston has fewer road games, and the caliber of opponent on the road is much different. Both teams could outperform the records above, or underperform, but the net effect seems reasonable to me. If that holds, please note that before the final week of the season they will be tied (91-64). This could be quite the race.
Seriously though I thought it was interesting that Lowrie got into the game last night. He didn't make a play but I think it speaks to their lack of confidence in Gonzalez that they aren't telling Lowrie to pack it up and rest the wrist for 2010. Also, with the caveat that it was against a AAA lineup at that point I thought Bowden threw the ball pretty well.
That does seem to be the best thing the Sox have going for them. They're mostly at home, where they have generally played much better, and two of their three road opponents are the Orioles and Royals.
As far as Texas, I'd be concerned about projecting that many losses against teams that have either packed it in (Seattle) or have likely wrapped up all that they can wrap up (Angels) in there.
I think the Red Sox are definitely the heavy favorite to make the playoffs, but I suppose when you're discussing less than 15% of the season, calling it a toss-up based on sample size issues would be reasonable as well.
1. Seattle is 11-9 in their last 20. So is Texas. I'm not convinced that Seattle has packed it in yet. They have no chance of the playoffs, sure; but I don't think they're mailing it in. I understand, even if they're not mailing it in they're not as good as Texas. Neither is Tampa Bay, who has the same record (as Seattle).
2. The Angels are only 4.5 games up on the Rangers. Between now and their trip to Arlington, the Angels will have 2 at home against Seattle, 3 at home against the White Sox, one at the Yankees, and 3 at Boston. It's not unreasonable to think they go 5-4 in that stretch, during which I have Texas going 6-1. If I did the math right that would put the Rangers 2.5 games out when the Angels arrive in Arlington. I think the Angels won't nearly have things wrapped up.
Now that I think of it...
For the Angels:
2 vs Seattle: 2-0
3 vs White Sox: 2-1
1 at NY Yankees: 0-1
3 at Boston: 1-2
3 at Texas: 1-2
3 vs NY Yankees: 2-1
3 vs Oakland: 3-0
4 vs Texas: 3-1
3 at Oakland: 2-1
Total projected: 16-9
Final record: 98-64
If the Angels play like they have it wrapped up, they won't have it wrapped up. Entering the final week, they'd have a 2-game lead on Texas (93-62) with 4 head-to-head games left. With Texas potentially being tied for the WC with Boston, the Angels could enter the last week of the season fighting to clinch a playoff spot. And that's with me tabbing them as going 7-7 against Boston, the Yankees, and Texas the rest of the way.
This could be quite the race.
EDIT: I'm investing in yellow-pants futures right now.
I don't really know why, but I haven't really connected with the team that much, either. The Big Papi thing is a factor. It's hard to say - there are a good number of players I really like individually, from Pedroia to Ellsbury to Lowell to Lester to Okajima, and Martinez has been a lot of fun, but somehow, just not getting into this season. I'm also working a ton, that probably doesn't help.
EDIT: Obviously, signing Pedro would have turned everything around. Goes without saying.
But I do love me some Victor Martinez. He's been everything they could possibly have been hoped for. Seeing him work with Buchholz of late has been a genuine joy.
Personally I think neither of those is a given. The Rangers could still pass the Sox somewhat easily but if the Sox get in I think a Lester/Beckett 1-2 punch combined with a great bullpen and a solid lineup make this team a very real World Series contender.
Give me a healthy Beckett and Lester and I'll take my chances.
I had this with 32 games left:
@TB:1-2
@CWS:2-2
Bal: 2-0
TB:1-2
LAA:2-1
@Bal:2-1
@KC:3-1
@NY:1-2
TOR:2-1
Cleve:3-1
With Sox winning 95 wins
Same here.
Seconded.
I wonder who Ranger fans are pulling for in this upcoming series vs. LAA - it's one of those deals where one team has to win, but one team also has to lose. Texas plays Oakland.
The Sox schedule is relatively soft after this series - one set with the Yankees and everyone else on there seems to be phoning in the rest of the season.
One other thing I noticed looking at where things stand is that it's almost heard to believe Toronto was in the thick of things enough to the point where that was a minor consideration re: trading Halladay mid-season - they were going in the wrong direction in both May and June, but still started July just 4 back in the WC. J.P. might have found it easier to pull the trigger if Toronto had started 17-24 rather than 27-14.
And then, in the top of the 5th it starts raining steadily, getting heavier by the minute. Meanwhile Beckett seems oblivious to this, or oblivious to the rule about games being official after 5 innings, because he takes his sweet time getting the last 2 outs. I was blinking in disbelief as he even called out the catcher at one point. He almost let a win slip away with his slowness.
happy about the matchups. Unhappy about not having home-field advantage.
So since nothing ever turns out as predicted, I guess the Tigers will be going to the World Series.
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