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Beltran would be able to play 3 times a week against all lefies, filling in (in turn) for all 3 starting OFers, occ. spelling Gonzo and Papi too.
Seconded. DFA him.
It might be because he sucks. Just a theory.
Beltran is just too perfect of a fit for this team to not happen. He doesn't even need to play every day, he can take 2-3 games off a week and split time in RF with either Drew or Reddick (I'd prefer Reddick until he shows that his performance so far isn't for real).
The other obvious upgrade to make via trade would be a solid left-handed reliever.
I think Lackey's issue is his elbow. He even admitted that it's gong to get worse at some point, and presumably require surgery to get it right. Just go ahead and get the damn surgery already, because you're not accomplishing anything productive by trying to pitch through it.
This has something to do with it.
44 PA's mean nothing. Especially in light of what he's done the rest of his career.
Nevertheless, I suspect McDonald gets traded in a deal for a depth starting pitcher. If Lacky does indeed go down, we'll need a warm body.
Or maybe Kyle Weiland. Guy's earned a callup.
Be mediocre in the minors? He's a 32 year-old with a .279/.338/.425 line in nearly 900 AAA games, why would anyone expect him to be anything other than an easily replaceable backup outfielder in the majors? I remember in 2006 a bunch of posters at RaysBB were clamoring for the Rays to call him up like he was going to be some sort of asset; sure, the 77 OPS+ of Damon Hollins would have been nice to replace but it's not like McDonald was going to help a terrible team much anyway. I don't get why he generates the interest he does from some people.
Reddick needs to play every day until he gives a reason to bench him.
And in the majors he's had a .247/.307/.383 line-and I did I mention that he's 32 now?
He had a .765 OPS against everyone last year, and has a career .846 OPS against lefties (in a lefty-heavy lineup). And he plays all three OF positions.
Where's the guy who you know can replace that?
EDIT: The .846 OPS vs L doesn't include his crappy 2011 stats...not that that matters.
He's not a prospect. Screw the platoon stuff, let's see what Reddick can do. At least he's a bit of a prospect.
Lester, Beckett, Bucholz, Miller, Aceves...after Lackey sucks away his two remaining tries.
Then try Doubront. At least he's another LHP.
What's wrong with platoons? Besides, if you bench Drew and start Reddick, you're getting the best of both worlds--seeing what Reddick can do, AND having a platoon option if Tito thinks Reddick can't hit a particular pitcher.
Plus Crawford has never hit lefties in his career.
Edit: and Cameron's.
Cameron needs to be gone though. Reddick can be the one to give JD a rest even if he is a LHB (LHP and RHP).
Crawford should be back soon, but nobody really misses him except when D-mac is in there. Reddick has been better than CC against RHP'ers. D-mac should be used only as an emergency replacement or pinch runner, or to give guys a rest during a blowout.
On the SP front, the top 3 of Beckett, Buchholz and Lester is as good a top 3 as there is in MLB now that Oswalt is out. Lackey is probably hurt (elbow), but maybe Miller has turned it around, if not, you have Millwood, Doubront, Aceves. Wakefield has been fine but he is an injury waiting to happen at his age, so they may need to make a deal at the trading deadline to make sure they have enough depth.
Lowrie return is a bit uncertain, but Scutaro is a better SS anyways. They can bring up Navarro as utility IF who can also play the corner OF position as a RHB.
Don't really see any other holes so long as the key players stay healthy.
I like Lowrie, but have little confidence that he'll ever be able to play 130 games in a season. Luckily, Scutaro looks good, is getting on base, plays solid defense, and is not being asked to be a table-setter at the top of the lineup.
Pedroia, Youkilis, Gonzalez, Ortiz, and Ellsbury are playing really well. Scutaro and Reddick are also playing very well. The catching situation has been as good or better than most could've expected. The failure of the two corner OF slots is troubling, and I hope that Crawford plays a lot better than this.
The biggest problem with the 2011 Red Sox is that they are paying Drew, Cameron, and Crawford about $42 million to suck. Suck a lot.
Just an idea.
On Drew, I've been guessing that his spottier playing time has been a function of his body breaking down - then there's one underlying cause for both his struggles and his drop in playing time. But who knows.
For now, I think Reddick looks really good and deserves playing time. He's made huge strides as a hitter, and we have to find out if he can maintain this improvement over several weeks. If there's a possibility that the Sox would trade anyone of value for Beltran, they should make sure first that they can't get 80% of Beltran without giving away prospects. That means playing Reddick regularly and putting him in a position to succeed. If you give Cameron's and McDonald's PA to Reddick, you're giving him mostly PA with a platoon disadvantage. That's putting your young player in a position to fail, and it's a terrible idea. Reddick's PA have to come mostly from Drew, Crawford, and Ellsbury. I think mostly from Drew.
Or just wait for the Brewers to call him up and then DFA him again. They've waived Boggs three times this year. But yeah, Boggs is a capable fourth outfielder that the Brewers have no interest in actually using as such.
Just go with a Reddick, Ellsbury, Drew OF.
Does Reddick have massive splits? Is he incapable of playing LF?
McDonald fails my OF D eye test.
Everything in Reddick's career points to him being a pretty bad hitter right now except for his last 40 or so MLB ABs. I wouldn't mind taking a shot with him, but there's a really good reason that he's not given the same chance Pedroia is.
I meant in his first year, 2007. Though it was actually only his first month that was bad, he wasn't at all good during that month. He had a .544 OPS in April 2007.
Hackers have hot streaks, but Reddick looks like he might not actually be a hacker anymore. That's why I think he deserves more playing time.
But even then Pedroias minor league track record was superior to Reddick. Additionally There is the soft marker that he was simply better regarded as a prospect than Reddick.
He may well have turned a corner, but I can certainly see the rational for not inserting him in the starting lineup forever.
Are the improvements Reddick has made in 2011 real and sustainable? I don't know, but there's not a compelling case that the Sox shouldn't give him the opportunity to find out at the big league level.
So, in other words, you guys can't ####### have him!!!
*coughs*
That is to say, I fear Beltran going all Gagne upon getting traded to the Red Sox. I'd rather just see what Reddick can do. Moreover, we could have a SP problem come 7/31--the way things are going, aside from Lester and Beckett I'm not at all sure what 5 guys are going to be in the rotation come 7/31 due to injury/ineffectiveness... If there was a F'ing-A trade to make on 7/31, to be honest I'd rather have it be for a starter.
Could I interest you all in barely used Jason Bay? And since I like you all so much, I'll waive the usual prospect required! Don't let this twice in a lifetime opportunity pass you by!
If the Sox are seriously considering Beltran, then they need to find out first whether Reddick's for real. If, that is, there's already a plan in the works to bench Drew, then Drew should be sitting / dl'ed once Crawford returns. They shouldn't get involved in a bidding war for Beltran without a better idea of Reddick's quality. I guess the counterpoint would be that the Sox also need to give Drew time to see if he can bounce back. That's a good point, interlocutor inside my head. Damn. I guess it's a judgment call for the Sox based on what they see in the next week.
On Reddick's splits, my memory is he had normal splits in the minors. He shouldn't be the weak side of any platoons. If the Sox want to give up on McDonald and Cameron simultaneously, there are lots of RHB corner outfielders just waiting for a major league bench job all around the high minors.
Plus, I'm totally sold on Miller. Lester-Beckett-Buchholz-Miller-whoeverisn'thurt works for me just fine.
To say nothing of the fact that, of the Wakefield/Lackey combo at 4/5, how many wins could you realistically project over the last 3 months of the season? 10? maybe? And, again, this assumes a guy who's made two decent starts for you (with a history of wildness many years in the making) can act as your #3 starter should Buchholz's back issues flare up again.
I know you get hosed looking for starters at the trade deadline. Where I might start looking is teams with guys under contract (but maybe a bit too rich of a contract) for 2+ years after this one, on teams that might be willing to dump salary as the primary motivation for the deal. I confess I have no idea who falls into this category.
Again, if Buchholz comes back and stays healthy/effective, the points are moot and they won't be finding a starter. But I really do worry Buchholz's issues will wind up being persistent (at least for 2011), mainly because aside from rest to treat it they don't seem to understand what is actually causing the problem in the first place...
I doubt Beltran would actively lose games the way Gagne managed to...
Oh well fine, as long as you have a rational reason to avoid improving the team.
Not necessarily. Beltran is not a long term solution, he's just someone to plug in until his contract expires. Reddick could be a long term solution in RF (and if his newfound plate discipline is real, I like his other tools more than Kalish's) but not seize the starting job until next year.
What about SS? If the Sox are looking to upgrade by pilfering the Mets, I'd rather replace Scutaro/ Lowrie.
I have no idea how the Red Sox system is perceived right now, actually. What would fans of teams other than the Mets or Red Sox think would be a fair package for Beltran? Would something based around Doubront be good enough?
Oh god, don't let any Mets fans hear you say this. :-)
Well that didnt go so well.....6 ER in 2/3 IP. The long road remains ahead.
Beltran's not coming to Boston for free unless there is no interest from any other team. There will almost certainly be interest from other teams. I dont have the slightest idea who the Mets would ask for, but its going to be someone decent.
The Sox have an incredible wealth of C prospects, so if maybe we could offer a grab bag with some collection of Middlebrooks, Coyle, Navarro, Workman, Brentz, Hassan, Chiang, Wilson, Hazelbaker, Lavarnway, Jacobs, or Weiland. (Vitek and Tejeda could go on this C-prospect list now, too.) I don't know which of those guys the Red Sox are higher or lower on, and which of those guys have more or less trade value, but hopefully there is enough volume of guys like that that some trades could be worked out.
(I admit I easily could have put both Xander Bogaerts and Miles Head on that list, and chose not to because I'm too excited about those two.)
I cant see any of these guys being the centerpiece of a deal. I suppose its possible that the Mets want to throw spagetti at a wall, but I doubt it.
And I like Doubront and a bunch of the grab bag guys. I'd rather see if Reddick can be the upgrade first, before committing to a trade.
I agree with this approach but I fear its going to bite us. For all the advances he's made on plate discipline this year I worry that he's going to look good for the next month then as teams figure him out he's going to go back to hacking and chasing right around the time the deadline passes. I'm not sure how to avoid that though because I think he's worth a long look.
Of course they'll ask for that, but I think recent trade history has shown that they're not going to get a top prospect back unless they essentially buy one by eating all of Beltran's salary (we can call this pulling a Casey Blake); I'd kind of assumed that the Mets didn't have the finances to pull this off.
If another team decides he's a must-have acquisition then they'll certainly overbid the Sox (who could just plug Reddick in or stick with Drew anyway), but I expect that it will come down to a bunch of similar offers where the Mets wind up going with the guy they like a little better.
Does Ranaudo not rate as a "top" prospect? A cursory look at the numbers suggest he is pitching well at Single A and my recollection is he was considered a top 10 talent in last year's draft with just the injury concern.
I guess "top" is a vague term but he was #67 in BA last year. He's certainly a higher ceiling than any other pitcher the Sox currently possess.
Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Wakefield, Doubront, Miller, Aceves. Certainly if the Sox can improve one of those last five they should do it but I don't think depth is the need as much as quality.
I'm more concerned about the bullpen. After Papelbon and Bard I think we're a bit weak. If Jenks comes back right that's a difference maker but I think it's at least as likely if not more likely that he's on the DL again in a few weeks. I'd like someone a bit stronger than Wheeler/Albers/Aceves to fill that gap between the starters and Bard.
By my count that's four prospects who have fallen below B- (Britton, Pimentel, Vitek, Tejeda) versus the ten I listed above who have crossed that threshold going the other way. Not a bad half-season for the farm system.
I think the prospect of having 2 of Wake/Doubront/Miller/Aceves in the rotation for any extended period of time is something that the team will try very hard to avoid. Wakefield's back is not good enough to depend on for a long time, and his performance may or may not merit a rotation spot. Doubront hasn't even averaged 5 innings a start in the minors the last couple of years, so I don't think you use him more than spot start or so. Miller is the wildcard. And there is the possibility that Lackey simply pitches so poorly he must be removed from the rotation. In my opinion, all of these things plus the normal always-there risk of pitcher arm trouble make SP depth the biggest hole right now. A team can afford to have a lousy bottom half of a bullpen, but it's a lot harder to succeed with a lousy half of a starting rotation.
-"11 B- or higher" is a generous summary of Sickels. There were 4 B prospects and 7 B- prospects, with no one above a B. If I used larger buckets and dumped the B- guys into the C bucket, that'd basically be the same system. As we said, it's definitional.
-I think "big steps forward" is a very generous take as well. Middlebrooks has turned a few doubles into homers, but he's the same basic hitter with way too many Ks, Brentz was a college hitter beating up Sally league pitchers who is now struggling in Salem, Wilson is repeating AA. Jacobs and Coyle are striking out way too much. Weiland is walking way too many. Head has taken a big step forward, and he might be our real breakout prospect. If Bogaerts can keep it up - so far it's just 50 PA - he could join Head. Hassan and Chiang have taken steps forward, but they were a long way back before.
Basically, I was thinking that a "B" prospect is someone that can legitimately headline a deadline deal for a good MLB player. An "A" prospect can get you a superstar, and a "C" prospect is filler to build out either of those trades. I think the vast majority of the guys listed there are filler, not headliners.
EDIT: Certainly, if the Mets would take a Middlebrooks+ package for Beltran, I'd do that in a second. I just don't think they would.
But back to Doubront, why does he pitch so few innings per start?
5 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K
5 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K
5 IP, 6 H, 4 BB, 4 K
6 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K
How do you toss Lavarnway in a bucket with all of these guys? In fact I just read an article about him yesterday where Sickels said he'd rate Lavarnway a "B-minimum, maybe B" if he were rating him today. Well technically he said that in replying to the comments, but you get the idea.
When are people going to stop saying this? (not picking on you, I'm actually asking)
Yes, he's young for his levels. But when does it become more likely that we've got Rey Ordonez, and not Omar Vizquel here?
What I think I'm trying to say is that a player like Iglesias is either an All Star or replacement level, I don't think there is a lot of in between.
In RF, they've got at least a decent chance that Drew rebounds and hits at a respectable if not above-leaugue-average clip from here out. They've also got a team that is leading the league in RS/G.
If anything, they'll be in the market for pitching.
If there weren't significant doubt that Lavarnway could catch, he would have been in the Red Sox top ten prospects last year, easily. The fact that he's been rated so lightly points to his defensive deficiencies. Did Sickels say that Lavarnway had made major strides on defense? That's the only thing that I think could justify a B grade - that'd be great news.
Read the linked article. He's throwing out runners at a good rate, and his passed balls are way down. I don't know that he's improved enough to catch in MLB, but I don't think a Jeff Bailey comparison is really fair. Bailey was already playing positions other than catcher by the time he was in High A ball, and in his age 23 season had a .885 OPS at AA playing mostly first base.
But defense aside, I think you have to bump him up a bit for jumping to AAA and not missing a beat, and even hitting better. Obviously he's on a hot streak, but it's still a good sign, since the early knock on him offensively was slow bat speed that wouldn't translate as he advanced to higher levels.
If Lavarnway now projects to major league catching skills, he's a really great prospect. It looks like people are saying that he's improved (from a really low level) and in a year or two he might project to have major league catching skills.
Cliff Floyd is the name that came to mind as I read this. The Nomar deal was expiring contract for expiring contract, Floyd is the last "rental" I can think of as a position player.
Part of Lavarnway's lack of catching time has been a function of timing. He was drafted with Federowicz (clearly the superior defender by all accounts) and every step of the way they've had to share catching duties. I'm not saying Lavarnway is a great defender but I think had the Sox not drafted Federowicz he would have had a lot more playing time behind the plate. I think the fact that the Sox have never asked him to play a position other than catcher (besides DH) suggests they ARE committed to him behind the plate.
This.
On another note, Jenks and Morales are being activated today with Atchison and Hottovy heading back to Pawtucket, so that could be a nice bullpen upgrade if both are truly healthy.
The strongest thing he said was probably in the comments, where he said in response to a question about how he'd rank Lavarnway if he was doing his prospect list today:
Was Tony Graffanino a deadline deal? That sort of felt like a waiver pickup. He certainly wasn't the impact player that Floyd was, but looking at his numbers, he was better than I remembered. Some scout earned his stripes on that one.
But yeah, it's not something the Sox seem to do much, preferring to pick up random odds n ends on waiver deals. I'm sure they'd do it for the right guy at the right price, though.
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF
2. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B
3. Adrian Gonzalez (L) 1B
4. Kevin Youkilis (R) 3B
5. Darnell McDonald (R) LF
6. Jason Varitek (S) C
7. Mike Cameron (R) RF
8. Marco Scutaro (R) SS
9. Josh Beckett (R) P
Still both McDonald and Cameron in the lineup. Yuck.
I can see the case that Cameron's washed up, given his injuries last year. I don't see it with McDonald, especially since the sample is so teensy and his AAA numbers are good.
His reads on defense this year have looked better to my eyes than they did last season. If he was still playing defense like he did last year he'd probably not deserve any more shots, but to my eyes he looks pretty good on defense this season.
It seems like Cameron might get DFAed when Crawford comes back (possibly as soon as this weekend in Houston). He'd probably have to show something tonight or on Thursday to keep a spot on this roster.
As nice a bounceback season as Beltran has had, he's essentially been worth his salary -- about $9M so far for 2.4 WAR. He also comes with significant injury risk. I'd be very surprised if he brought back a package better than Middlebrooks+.
2003: David Espinosa, Nate McLouth
2002: Coco Crisp, Prentice Redman
2001: Michael Restovich, Tony Alvarez
2000: Ty Wigginton, Nick Leach
1999: Craig Wilson, Donny Leon, Nate Rolison
1998: Scott Hunter, Marco Scutaro, Jerry Hairston
1997: Chris Ashby, Rudy Gomez, David Lamb
1996: Jermaine Johnson
1995: Pat Bryant, Todd Walker
The regulars there are McLouth, Crisp, Wigginton, Wilson, Scutaro, Hairston, and Walker - 7 out of 20, and no stars in the bunch. I don't think it's all that impressive to put up merely good numbers at a reasonably young age.
On strikeouts, the problem is a combination of (a) that the player is probably rocking an unsustainable BABIP (Middlebrooks .360, Jacobs .420) or (b) that players tend to strike out a lot more in the majors if they strike out a lot in the minors. I have Middlebrooks' MLE at 252/287/366, so he's quite a long way still from being a major leaguer.
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