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1. tfbg9 Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:26 AM (#2619592)That said, I don't think his weight problem is anything to be too worried about. Dunn got in shape when he felt that it was affecting his game and I am sure Miggy would do the same. The guy is one of the best hitters around and would be an amazing boost to any lineup.
That's a good point. Of course, Youkilis and Mench arrived in the Majors at Cabrera's age or older, so maybe we just didn't see their skinny days? [Here's Mench at the University of Delaware.]
TFBG, I saw that picture, but I felt that it was not fair because he had his cheeks puffed out. Others where I've seen him with a normal face make him look to be burly, not superfat.
Also, without even looking at his cheeks in that picture, his jersey looks really full. SNUG, even. He looks out of shape in that picture, but again. IT'S A PICTURE. You need to see a boxing-style weight-in shot before you'll be convinced, I'm thinking.
Sox fans, let me say this: if your team can afford to acquire Miggy in a trade, you kiss his fat behind every day and twice on Sunday, and love it.
Feeling nervous yet abt the Hobart test?
Are you sh*tting me? There's no way the Sri Lankans chase 500+
I did find this interesting:This strikes me as a little disappointing. Not that I would have given him a blank check, but if I'm the Sox I'd give him between 3.5 and 4 million per season, which I'm sure he wouldn't turn down. Has he not earned it? Does he not have to deal with a torturous media and rabid fan base on a daily basis? If Piniella or Baker can get that money, there's no reason he shouldn't; I don't care about their experience.
I was until Brett Lee hit with a few quickies....
Are you sh*tting me? There's no way the Sri Lankans chase 500+
Geez, it looks like English...
275 with 7 wickets remaining AT LEAST has made it interesting
FYP
I'd do Ellsbury, Lester, and Lars for him
I obviously do want him
It sounds like Cabrera would be quite popular with the fans in Boston.
I wonder if the FO simply doesn't want Terry to get too powerful, a la (one could argue) Torre. The longer he stays, and the more championships he wins, the stronger a position he's in, obviously, and maybe they don't want to feed that, somehow?
Seems lame to me. (And by lame I mean on the part of the front office, not Francona.) Francona does a good job and his contract is not much compared to the players. I'd be surprised if he's asking for Torre money.
Does anyone even know what he's gotten paid the last few years?
Also: "I think the real worry Hugh is that Cabrera plays 3rd, whereas Fielder plays 1st."
I assume that in Boston Cabrera plays first, with Youkilis back at 3rd-- assuming Cabrera's okay with that, of course.
But I don't think the Sox will trade for him. I think they like Ellsbury and love Buchholz and worry about Miguel's weight.
Are you hoping he'll ask?
This doesn't matter, IMO. As kevin says, a player that young carrying this weight makes you worry about how they deal with the fact that those extra pounds become tougher to lose as you get older. If the Sox were to acquire and extend the contract of Cabrera, they'd probably be in for seven to ten years. A weight problem has to change the projection somewhat.
That said, I'd trade for him if he was available and the price was right.
With the impending re-signing of Lowell, I'd feel better about the Cabrera acquisition in case his problem really effects his fielding in the short term.
Between the ages of 25 and 30, Mo Vaughn played about 95% of Boston's games and absolutely raked. And he might very well have had a few more excellent seasons had he not fallen into the Angels' dugout chasing a foul ball. Worrying about Miguel Cabrera turning into Mo Vaughn seems kinda silly. Hoping that the next six years of Miguel Cabrera turn out as well as Mo Vaughn at the same ages would make more sense.
Really? Who is Cabrera's agent? He's got two arb years left. Albert Pujols signed a seven year contract that bought out all of his arb years and four FA years. He'll be 30 in the last season of that deal. Why wouldn't Cabrera sign a five or six year contract with a team that traded for him? Would he instead risk something like $120M in guaranteed money just to get to free agency at 27 instead of 31?
As others have noted, I think you have to assess Cabrera as a 1B. Dewan has him as the worst defensive 3B over 2005-2007 (though Braun could overtake him soon). When you are among the worst at your position, you ought to start looking for a new job.
The last fat, good player the Sox had was Vaughn and he rolled right off the table.
Mo was a perennial MVP candidate through 1998 (age 30) and very good for three of the four years after that. He missed all of 2001, but was otherwise productive through the age of 34. Cecil Fielder wasn't nearly as good a hitter as Mo or Cabrera, but he maintained his production through the age of 32.
Admittedly a small sample size, but this seems to argue that we might expect Cabrera to be productive into his early 30's, then rapidly disappear from the game (unless he gets his weight under control). An MVP candidate for the next 5 or 6 years with a few more years of All-Star production after that. What's that worth to you?
Why wouldn't Cabrera sign a five or six year contract with a team that traded for him?
Because if I'm going to give up Ellsbury *and* Lester to get him, I'm going to want him locked up long term. Pattern something after the Manny deal -- 8 years guaranteed with two team options at the end. Toss in a weight and/or health clause that allows the team to escape after six if you like...
Cot's baseball contracts lists Francona being paid:
2007 - $1.65M (8th in MLB)
2006 - $0.6M
2005 - $0.55M
2004 - $0.5M
Seems like he was underpaid at the start, and should break the $3M level now. Can't imagine the Red Sox would want him to walk away. Notwithstanding the reliabe "source" quoted, a deal wouldn't seem that hard to work out. Maybe the years would be more of a concern than the salary?
http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/11/14/miguel-cabrera-will-prepare-for-trade-by-losing-weight/
If so, doesn't that show us he's taking things a little more seriously? That said, I don't want to give up that much for him either and if Florida is looking to hit a homerun in this deal I'd be worried.
What about Rick Reuschel? A pitcher, not a hitter, but he was still playing well at 40.
In which case, the only one who jumps to my mind is Smoky Burgess.
Not sure how useful a comp a backup catcher from the 1960s is going to be, though.
http://www.twinscards.com/viewcardsdetail.php?cardnum=370
Big man got to be fed.
Hey Valentine, the answer is a lot. So is the scenario where Lester and Ellsbury are traded one that finds Crisp back in CF for next season? Would you be willing to not include Lester and include a better P prospect in (Bowden, Bard?) in order to keep Ellsbury?
That said, I'd trade for him if he was available and the price was right.
I'd sleep with Salma Hayek if she were willing to and agreed to buy me dinner.
Link: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3118926
I just grabbed those names from last year's BA best prospects list. Since I don't really follow the minors closely - particularly since I somehow can't rejoin the Bosox list serve due to an unresponsive server on my end - I did what I could to throw real names out there.
In any event, I wouldn't suggest Bucholz, that is for sure.
youk + lester for cabrera?
I hope not. Weight issue aside, the Sox need a big (preferably young) bat to couch against Manny's decline/departure and the likelihood that Papi is going nowhere but down in the years to come.
Youk + Lester for Cabrera? Of course. Would probably need to add another prospect, though, perhaps Lowrie or Masterson. And even if they insisted on Youk + Lester + Ellsbury I might not be able to resist.
And this is based on...?
Jhonny Peralta was gettin' the fatty-fatty-2x4 treatment last offseason, and unless my eyes deceived me, he came back noticably more slender. I'd love to see that from Cabrera.
Peralta was always a bit of a porker though, IIRC. The issue with Cabrera is how quickly he's been gaining weight.
Media reports at the time and open dissatisfaction from teammates.
About halfway down the page, under "Cano: Encore".
About halfway down the page, under "Cano: Encore".
Cano coming to camp "overweight" was a story from the '05-'06 offseason that they were referencing.
Youk, Crisp, Lester
for
Howard and Madson (or maybe just a prospect)
Unfortunately, I don't see a lot else on the Phillies that would be a fit.
I would like Carlos Ruiz as the heir apparent behind the plate, but I don't see that happening either as the Phillies have nothing else there.
Just to push this trade that will never happen.
Here are the OBP's of that lineup
Ellsbury .394
Pedroia .380
Ortiz .445
Ramirez .388
Howard .392
Lowell .378
Drew .373
Varitek .367
Lugo .294
Respectfully, Sean, that is not a serious offer for Ryan Howard. What would you have said if the Phillies had offered Kyle Kendrick, Aaron Rowand, and Pat Burrell (with cash thrown in to make Burrell essentially free for two years) at the start of 2007 for David Ortiz AND a prospect?
Though I think every player on your list could be argued to be the less valuable player to those I mentioned.
Youkilis vs. a Free Burrell 117 OPS+ to 127 OPS+ and a lot more defensive value and two years of youth.
Crisp vs. Rowand, Crisp has a few more pretty cheap years until FA and was by many measures the best defensive CFer in the majors. Looking him up he was a little worse than I thought relative to other CF's. Rowand had a great year, but was signed for just one year and is now a free agent.
Lester vs. Kendrick. How is Lester after 2007 even close to Kendrick before 2007? Given Kendrick's SO rate, I'm not sure they are even close now.
I think that deal is a little closer than you might think. Ellsbury instead of Crisp just might do. Howard will be 28 next year. He doesn't really have any more upside like what you might get with a Miguel Cabrera.
Well, duh. A young lefty pitcher with 150+ league average MLB innings vs. a 21 year-old who just made it to AA (and struggled) and some guy who lost the strike zone?
And to think he had the best mechanics of any pitcher in the 2006 draft...
I disagree.
Just made it to AA? At 20 he was the youngest guy in the league and had a 7.63 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, and a .84 HR/9. That was after he dominated high-A to the tune of a 1.37 ERA in the toughest pitcher's park anywhere. He's at least in the ballpark with Lester.
I share the skepticism that others have for Cabrera losing weight. It's very hard to do otherwise there wouldn't be so many obese people around. I doubt it will affect him much as a hitter. Cecil Fielder didn't lose much as a hitter mid-30s and Vaughn didn't lose much til his early 30s (after injury). For the Red Sox purposes, it'd be fine with them if he fell apart in his 30s.
I believe Boras is his agent and I've heard discussion that he won't sign an extension at least not at a discount.
For millions, losing a significant amount of weight is anything but easy. And keeping it off is arguably even harder. Like most other things in life, it's all between the ears. If you want it badly enough, you can figure out how to get it done.
Except that most people want it very badly and very few actually do it.
The Phillies already got their discount in the form of the years they kept him buried in the minors despite his absolute dominance down there. They ate up at least a year of two of his earning potential that way.
I disagree.
I agree. He has the *potential* to be. Will he be? Probably not. I'd break down his chances roughly thusly:
#1 Starter - negligible
#2 Starter - 10%
#3 Starter - 40%
#4 Starter - 65%
#5 Starter - 85%
If I had to guess, I'd say Lester becomes a 100-105 ERA+ type, with the requisite spikes for career year(s) and whatnot.
On the Lester discussion:
Isn't it fairly common for lefties with really good stuff to struggle with their command and control for awhile in the majors? Randy Johnson's first few years are filled with K/BB ratios of not even 2:1. Lester will probably get better in the long run, it just might take him all of his time under arbitration control to figure it out.
I think part of it is that there is much more emphasis on homeruns today than in the past. I suspect all these guys work out a lot and have muscle under that fat. They are doing a lot of powerlifting and eating a lot in the process. They get paid to hit homeruns and they don't need a sixpack to do that. Not to say the extra weight is good in the long run, but I can see why it is happening.
To notice how fat players are today, watch a game from the 80s and then take a look at players today when they have those "turn back the clock" days wearing the old unis with the elastic waist bands.
Just made it to AA? At 20 he was the youngest guy in the league and had a 7.63 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, and a .84 HR/9. That was after he dominated high-A to the tune of a 1.37 ERA in the toughest pitcher's park anywhere. He's at least in the ballpark with Lester.
I was talking about Bard not Bowden. Bowden is the guy that "just made it into AA", and Bard is "the guy who lost the strike zone"
Fernando Martinez, Reggie Corrona, Andrew McCutchen...
Though you clearly can't count on those guys forever, I think it bears mentioning that Papi's OPS, OBP & EqA continued a 7(!) year upward trend in '07. With him walking at the rate he was last year and being able to push off of a healthy knee, I would expect next year to be even better (until further notice). He's really not that old.
As an Idaho member of the Sox Nation, I drool everytime I hear the prospect of a big right-handed hitter playing at Fenway. Most of the rumors say Cabrera is going to LA, but here's hoping he ends up in Boston and hits 50 homers next year.
What is it about being in Idaho causes this reaction?
Isolation. Being associated with--if anything--potatoes and white supremacists.
Presumably, you drove through Southern Idaho, which is a desert. The North is gorgeous, though (See Coeur d'Alene or Sandpoint).
Why all the enmity for Idaho, anyway? Or am I just being defensive?
Idaho's fine. At a minimum, it's not North Dakota.
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