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On the minor league front I wonder what Brentz could bring. They aren't likely to deal Middlebrooks ,Bradley or Barnes and Brentz is probably the guy that teams would want that the Sox would be willing to bite the bullet on and build a package around.
Another guy who might be appealing to teams is Lavarnway with Saltalamacchia emerging.
If they make a move for Greinke (are the Brewers going to try and resign him?) or Garza (much preferable to Dempster, IMO), they're not going to move Middlebrooks or Barnes. I think the team would prefer to hold on to Bradley with Ellsbury's FA coming. Brentz is a B-/C+ prospect at this point and unlikely to be a lead piece in a deal for Garza. Which leaves Lavarnway, Bogaerts, and Cecchini. I could see a deal of Bogaerts and a lesser prospect, or a Lavarnway/Cecchini deal.
After that, the SP market looks pretty weak.
I agree with trying to get a starter but Dempster scares me--that may just be because I still can't believe he made the jump to the rotation so well.
Pretty sure Bogaerts is going to be untouchable for anyone this side of Kershaw or Strasburg. Which is to say he's untouchable in any remotely realistic deal.
1) How much better a starting pitcher are the Sox really going to get in a trade than what they have right now? Based on performance, are you really going to boot Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, or Doubront? It could only be Bard. Garza? His ERA+ is 95 right now, and he's making $9.5m this year, eligible for arbitration again this off-season. Then, he's a free agent after 2013. This is a team that is unable to take on payroll right now, and you'd lock in, what, $12 million for 2013 on a guy that is going to be a league-average starter? And the, what about Lackey in 2013? And what about Bard in 2013? Because you get Garza for 1.5 years in a deadline deal in 2012, you have to pay a premium...and I simply don't think what you're paying for is what you need, in this case.
2) How many times do the Rays (or, for that matter, the 2012 Red Sox) have to show that spending money on a bullpen is generally a bad idea? Who are the two highest-paid guys in the Red Sox bullpen this year? (Hint: they aren't pitching right now...Bailey and Jenks.) The Rays never pay for bullpen arms. Unless you've got Rivera, you're crazy to invest your resources in a bullpen. Bard is one of the most valuable commodities in the entire organization right now - he's young, cost controlled, has been successful at the major-league level, is willing to do whatever the team wants, and has filthy stuff. If he was the closer this year (and if you move him back to the bullpen, that's what he'll probably be doing), then how many games ahead would the Red Sox be in 2012 thus far? Aceves is 14-for-17 in save situations, and 12 for his last 13. Since that Yankees meltdown seven weeks ago, he's striking out almost 10 per 9 IP, WHIP under one, etc. How much better was Bard going to be?
Bogaerts isn't nearly that good. Nice prospect, get why the FO likes him, but he's nowhere near an A-level prospect.
I don't know - Machado is probably an A-level pospect, right? There are probably some scouty reasons why he's considered much better than Bogaerts, but stat-wise I don't see a yawning chasm.
I mean, he's obviously nowhere near a Harper or Trout, but you don't trade those guys for anybody.
Head or arm they need to get him out of there. He's a mediocre starter who can't find the plate. If they need to they could start Padilla.
Well, yes, scouty stuff. And Machado is the same age and a full level higher (AA at 19) with the same production. And he's likely to stick at SS, where nobody thinks Bogaerts has a chance. I wouldn't say a yawning chasm, but it's a clear letter grade at a minimum.
B+. And he was higher on him than any of the other big sources. He hasn't done anything this year to move that grade up.
On the general point, I mean, if you want Dan Bard in the rotation regardless of his performance, then you won't want to trade for a starting pitcher. Any trade for a starting pitcher, at the moment, is premised on a Bard demotion of some sort. I think Bard's performance is unworthy of continued MLB starts (5.25 ERA, 5.64 FIP, stuff and command to match for the last month), so I am in favor of trading for a good pitcher.
I also think that with Lester still shaky, Beckett seemingly on the decline, and Buchholz a total wild card, the Sox could really use a front of the rotation starter to give them a bit more stability.
Why not just Matsuzaka? He isn't great down in Pawtucket, but isn't he bumping up against the limits of his rehab assignment?
What would be the point of all this? just to get Melancon on the team?
I can think of three benefits;
1. Daniel Bard goes away and gets fixed. Whether it's AAA or the DL or to a whorehouse in some third world nation whatever it takes to make him better.
2. The Sox gain flexibility by not rushing Matsuzaka up before he is ready to go. Once the Sox call him up he is "stuck" in Boston unless he goes back on the DL.
3. Potentially identify people who can step in and make a start when needed. I am skeptical that the other four starters are going to make their 22 or so scheduled remaining starts so a little knowledge that Scott Atchison (for example) can take the ball and make a start is helpful.
1 & 2 are the biggest ones though. Melancon is pitching well but I'd be fine with a Mortensen call up (I like him) or even Tazawa.
I didn't watch yesterday's game, so maybe that's why I don't think removing him from the rotation is an emergency need. I try not to over-react to the ups and downs over a long season. That being said, I think the Sox should be looking to have a better SP than Bard in that spot in the rotation this season. But that should be when they acquire someone, or when/if Matsuzaka is healthy and effective, and not making one of your relievers a starter in a non-emergency situation. Also, the situation described in #22 is one that can withstand a bad outing, and keep the team in the game.
Maybe I don't understand what you mean, but the Sox have the exact same flexibility w/ Matsuzaka whether it's Bard or Atchison/Mortensen getting the starts.
They know what they have with Atchison. He is a reliever who could probably make a spot start, but has only started 2 games since coming back from Japan a few years ago. Giving him a start this month doesn't really give them any more info.
55 IP, 52 H, 33 R, 6 HR, 37 BB, 34 K, 5.24 ERA, 81 ERA+, 5.65 FIP, -0.3 WAR
He's also leading the league with 8 HBP to go along with those 37 free passes. I don't think it's overreacting to judge Bard a poor bet to pitch well in a major league rotation right now.
I don't either. I, too, think Bard is a poor bet to pitch well in a major league rotation right now. I also think that Atchison/Padilla/Mortensen would be a only slightly less poor bet as a starter at the moment, considering that none of them has been stretched out to start this season. And for a tiny potential benefit, you would be weakening the bullpen and hurting the chance that Bard does become a decent starter this year.
To add to what MCoA wrote. Media around the team has been discussing Bard's drop in velocity, specifically that he can never get it up to above 94 and never really hits that number. Some of the speculation is that there is an injury. Second, his statements after the game were discouraging and does not make you think this is a bump in the road, or something that can be tweeked. He basically said "this is not working" and the "this" is the way he is pitching as a starter, not being a starter. He wants to go back to doing things the way he did as a reliever, part of which was not thinking so much. So it seems to me, either he needs to work on his mechanics to get back to where he was before this year or he needs to get his head straight, either of which he shouldn't be doing while pitching for the Red Sox.
One of the benefits of getting Bard out of the rotation is that you hopefully can fix him. Fixing him may mean having him contribute as a starter or it may mean having him go back to being a reliever but I think that benefit needs to be factored in. My fear is that Bard is damned close to the Ankiel line and I think getting him out of there before he gets to that point has value.
If he can actually turn those words into reality, he might be on to something. I think he showed in his first few starts (particularly the first start in Toronto) that he's capable of being a starting pitcher, but he needs to get back to the guy he was then and work from there. I think it would be a mistake to move him to the bullpen at this point, but I would probably send him to Pawtucket until he shows that he can throw strikes with his fastball and regain his velocity.
I think Bard is in the same position, not knowing if he can succeed as a starter, that lack of confidence becoming self-fulfilling. If the Red Sox are committed to Bard becoming a starter, and he can't get it together, they need to send him down.
Dice-K is scheduled to start tonight in Pawtucket, so he would be unable to cover Bard's scheduled start on Saturday.
EDIT: Whether he overcomes his difficulties or not, this is a fairly sure sign that they're committed to him as a starter. If they were to give up on the experiment he'd be in the bullpen.
But Matt Barnes did pitch last night and would be on schedule!
They should do this in complete secrecy just for one start, in order to spring him on an unsuspecting opposing lineup with no scouting reports, etc. Then send him to Portland.
He'd be a good Bard replacement for the rotation as well.
*go the distance* Barnesday at Fenway!
The anti-hyperbole.
Apparently they plan to limit him to three innings tonight, which seems to leave the door open to him going five on Saturday.
My gut says it is. I think there are three things at work against him;
1. He's been out a long time. I suspect the Sox will take their time and make sure he's got his timing down. It's one thing to slap around Single and Double A kids, I think they're going to want a bit of a sustained run against the "men" of AAA before promoting him.
2. It's not like Kalish has a track record at the big league level that screams "get him in there." He certainly showed flashes in 2010 but .252/.305/.405 for a right fielder isn't a lock. This isn't a guy like Ellsbury or Crawford who has proven he can do it and is deserving of being pushed into the lineup.
3. God help us all the Sox outfield is playing well right now. While I don't think any of us expects Daniel Nava or especially Scott Podsednik to keep this up I don't think the Sox are in a position where they are going to feel compelled to rush Kalish to the bigs to help the team.
That can all change over the next 7-10 days but my wild guess is that we're talking two weeks at Pawtucket minimum before the Sox move him up. There is a strong likelihood he will be ready next week but for the reasons I laid out I don't think he'll be here until the Miami series (June 19) at the earliest.
My other issue with Podsednik is that he isn't a center fielder. If Marlon Byrd were hitting like Scotty Pods is, I could sort of see the case for riding the hot hand. Podsednik is stretched in center for range, and he doesn't have the arm for the position at all.
Agreed but it takes away the need for a quick move to the Majors. It's not like the Sox are losing games because Scott Podsednik is in there and if a little extra time is useful for Kalish then you can take advantage of it. I'm not saying the Sox are going to go months with this arrangement but I think there is reason to believe that Kalish, and by extension the Sox, are better off with a little extra minor league time so if you can use the hot streak you use it.
He slapped around AAA pretty good last night!
I agree that Kalish isn't a "sure thing" but he's a much better bet to be a major league centerfielder than Podsednik or Byrd going forward. And during the time he plays center, you can see if he's going to hit enough to play RF after Ellsbury returns.
One thing that jumped at me is his excellent K/BB rate since his return. Sample size and all but that's a nice return to his good 2010 in that regard.
2006 - April 17-June 27 .249/.291/.438, remainder of season .343/.403/.546
2007 - June 21-August 23 .245/.321/.417, remainder of season .307/.359/.556
2008 - June 29-August 31 .259/.344/.403, remainder of season .276/.388/.612
2012 - April 5-June 5 .262/.321/.407
What's worth noting is that in each of the other seasons he has had a slump like this there have been several 55 game stretches within it. For example, in 2007 there were 21 games you could have taken as the end point of a 55 game period and gotten a sub-.750 OPS. Obviously it's a bit unsettling to see this happening for the first time in four years but this is not some sort of outrageously bad slump.
I think it's worth remembering that this is not some sort of carryover slump. In September last year he hit .318/.455/.523 (.318/.391/.523 if you turn IBB into outs) so it's not like this slump goes back further than the start of this year.
I'm not saying it's not concerning or that we should just start singing "always look on the bright side" like the end of Life of Brian but this slump is far from unprecedented in length or magnitude in Adrian Gonzalez' career.
Last 125 games (starting with 2011 all-star break) he's hit 14 home runs. It is a carryover power outage.
That's heavily, heavily influenced by this year though. He hit 10 homers in 70 games after the break last year which is a 26 home run pace, not the 50 homers some were forecasting but it doesn't make him some kind of singles hitter either.
Yes, the power is down but not in a way that is dramatically different than anything he has done in the past.
He hit 5 HR last August and 4 HR in September. 4-5 HR-a-month pace is around 24-30 a year. That's less than you'd like maybe, but certainly not an outage. This year is an outage, what with that 145 ISO.
EDIT: Or what Jose said.
Bring him to Boston.
It's a 23 home run pace. It would be his worst full season. The problem started last year and has carried over. He finished the year with a shoulder issue. It wouldn't be shocking if that problem sapped his power this year.
But that's the best stretch from this period and it's far below what he was doing when healthy.
Kalish's HR last night and Byrd's horseshit at bat in the 7th has me ready to call up Kalish right now. That was ####### painful.
EDIT: Coke to Mr. Dan.
He also went 4-5 tonight, including his 3rd home run of the week in Pawtucket. Just call this guy up already!
Barnes pitched a 7 inning CG (Doubleheader), allowing 5 hits and 3 walks while King 5.
Melancon called up from Pawtucket
Hopefully it's just some scar tissue or something from the TJ surgery. He did rush back, so a setback wouldn't be a shock. It'd be really unfortunate to see him need another surgery. He's a nice story and a really likable guy.
Yes. He proved in 2010 that he can hit AA/AAA pitching.
They should move Barnes to AA too. His Pedro-lite act needs a bigger venue.
Like Pedroia, it's a bad thumb, so of course they won't just disable him to let it heal.
Just DL him and bring up Kalish.
Trade Youkilis for prospects. See what you can get for Saltalamacchia too. Let the guys with the broken thumbs rest, and for God's sake don't rush anyone back from injury.
b. He hits well enough, but he's a defensive liability, even if (a) isn't true.
c. I don't think he's really part of the long-term plan of this club, but he unquestionably has trade value.
d. There's not much else worth trading on this team other than Youkilis.
-If Nava is hurt, it's going to be very hard for the Sox to justify a take-it-slow approach with Kalish's rehab.
-Shoppach is not an everyday catcher, he's a solid short-side platoon guy having a little babip fluke. If he played against RHP, he'd be hitting .180 at best.
-The Red Sox are having an excellent year in the minors, which means that if they want to upgrade, they don't have to move major league talent.
The concern I have is that they are going to fade too far back. They're now 5 games out of the 2nd Wild Card and 6 out of the division, if we don't start getting some wins the hill is going to be rather steep.
2003 - 32-28 (+36 run differential)
2004 - 29-31 (+21)
2005 - 31-29 (+11)
2006 - 23-37 (-92)
2007 - 32-28 (+24)
2008 - 31-29 (+39)
2009 - 32-28 (+24)
2010 - 29-31 (-14)
2011 - 26-34 (+2)
2012 - 29-31 (+20)
Are those other nine examples the worst 60-game stretches in any given season (you know, with the absolute worst possible end points selected)?
Exactly.
For what it's worth each season had multiple 60 game stretches like that but they heavily overlapped. Like 2012 you could take 8/1-9/22 or 8/2-9/23, that sort of thing. The run differential I used was the worst among what was typically about 5-6 "worst stretches."
Would a comparison of the best 60-game stretch of 2012 and previous years be fair?
If no, in what way does that differ from comparing the worst stretches?
My argument would be that I believe the 2012 Sox are better than they've been and that we should expect them not to go through a stretch like this in the future. I still expect Gonzalez and Pedroia to step it up and deliver what we have come to expect and I think the pitching has been generally good, particularly with Buchholz' recent improvements.
Having said that last night's loss kicked me in the nuts. I don't know why but for the first time I genuinely feel like we are 100% cooked. One game shouldn't matter that much and evaluations made during prolonged slumps are prone to error but that's the one that got me. I feel dramatically more pessimistic than I did at this time yesterday.
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