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   1. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 03, 2012 at 02:15 PM (#4146876)
If they deal Youk it's going to haveto be a three team deal. I don't see a team that would want Youk giving something in return that would help the 2012 team.

On the minor league front I wonder what Brentz could bring. They aren't likely to deal Middlebrooks ,Bradley or Barnes and Brentz is probably the guy that teams would want that the Sox would be willing to bite the bullet on and build a package around.

Another guy who might be appealing to teams is Lavarnway with Saltalamacchia emerging.
   2. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: June 03, 2012 at 02:55 PM (#4146895)
I don't think trading Youkilis is in the best interest of the team for 2012, but he won't be back in 2014 either way so I'm fine with making the move now. If they do that, I agree that a #2 should be the target. The outfield is bad now, but it shouldn't be a long-term concern with all of Ellsbury/Crawford/Nava/Sweeney/Ross around.

If they make a move for Greinke (are the Brewers going to try and resign him?) or Garza (much preferable to Dempster, IMO), they're not going to move Middlebrooks or Barnes. I think the team would prefer to hold on to Bradley with Ellsbury's FA coming. Brentz is a B-/C+ prospect at this point and unlikely to be a lead piece in a deal for Garza. Which leaves Lavarnway, Bogaerts, and Cecchini. I could see a deal of Bogaerts and a lesser prospect, or a Lavarnway/Cecchini deal.

After that, the SP market looks pretty weak.

   3. Darren Posted: June 03, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4146955)
I can't see a good fit for the OF. We have so many guys coming back soon (what's the latest on Crawford) that the acquired player would only add a fraction of a win at the cost of a good prospect. If they're going to try to replace Pods/Byrd, they should give Linares a shot.

I agree with trying to get a starter but Dempster scares me--that may just be because I still can't believe he made the jump to the rotation so well.
   4. Dan Posted: June 03, 2012 at 04:56 PM (#4146963)
Youkilis to Dodgers, Brentz and Eovaldi to Cubs, Garza to Red Sox.
   5. Dan Posted: June 03, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4146965)
I could see a deal of Bogaerts and a lesser prospect, or a Lavarnway/Cecchini deal.


Pretty sure Bogaerts is going to be untouchable for anyone this side of Kershaw or Strasburg. Which is to say he's untouchable in any remotely realistic deal.
   6. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 03, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4146972)
There is a lot of talk that Alfonso Soriano might be available.
   7. tfbg9 Posted: June 03, 2012 at 05:56 PM (#4146990)
Ugh. Man, Bard sucks! He just sucks. That's what I think.
   8. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: June 03, 2012 at 06:36 PM (#4147015)
Glad I was asleep - those walks from Bard would have driven me nuts
   9. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: June 03, 2012 at 07:20 PM (#4147033)
I know Bard was painful today, but I'm still a fan of keeping him in the rotation, because I think he has so much upside as a successful, young, cost-controlled starting pitcher. If you're going to make a trade for a starting pitcher, I'll push back, because:

1) How much better a starting pitcher are the Sox really going to get in a trade than what they have right now? Based on performance, are you really going to boot Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, or Doubront? It could only be Bard. Garza? His ERA+ is 95 right now, and he's making $9.5m this year, eligible for arbitration again this off-season. Then, he's a free agent after 2013. This is a team that is unable to take on payroll right now, and you'd lock in, what, $12 million for 2013 on a guy that is going to be a league-average starter? And the, what about Lackey in 2013? And what about Bard in 2013? Because you get Garza for 1.5 years in a deadline deal in 2012, you have to pay a premium...and I simply don't think what you're paying for is what you need, in this case.
2) How many times do the Rays (or, for that matter, the 2012 Red Sox) have to show that spending money on a bullpen is generally a bad idea? Who are the two highest-paid guys in the Red Sox bullpen this year? (Hint: they aren't pitching right now...Bailey and Jenks.) The Rays never pay for bullpen arms. Unless you've got Rivera, you're crazy to invest your resources in a bullpen. Bard is one of the most valuable commodities in the entire organization right now - he's young, cost controlled, has been successful at the major-league level, is willing to do whatever the team wants, and has filthy stuff. If he was the closer this year (and if you move him back to the bullpen, that's what he'll probably be doing), then how many games ahead would the Red Sox be in 2012 thus far? Aceves is 14-for-17 in save situations, and 12 for his last 13. Since that Yankees meltdown seven weeks ago, he's striking out almost 10 per 9 IP, WHIP under one, etc. How much better was Bard going to be?

   10. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: June 03, 2012 at 07:36 PM (#4147042)
Pretty sure Bogaerts is going to be untouchable for anyone this side of Kershaw or Strasburg. Which is to say he's untouchable in any remotely realistic deal.


Bogaerts isn't nearly that good. Nice prospect, get why the FO likes him, but he's nowhere near an A-level prospect.
   11. Darren Posted: June 03, 2012 at 07:43 PM (#4147044)
Bard is really bad right now and I think it's in his head a bit. I don't know that the skipping of him did it, but he's been terrible since (with one good start). I think he needs two weeks on the DL for "shoulder fatigue." They could throw Atchison for a spot start and bring up Melancon or Tazawa.
   12. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: June 03, 2012 at 07:57 PM (#4147057)
Cafardo wrote about the Twins possibly shopping Willingham. Bring him. Bring him now.
   13. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: June 03, 2012 at 09:48 PM (#4147125)
Bogaerts isn't nearly that good. Nice prospect, get why the FO likes him, but he's nowhere near an A-level prospect.


I don't know - Machado is probably an A-level pospect, right? There are probably some scouty reasons why he's considered much better than Bogaerts, but stat-wise I don't see a yawning chasm.

I mean, he's obviously nowhere near a Harper or Trout, but you don't trade those guys for anybody.
   14. booond Posted: June 03, 2012 at 09:49 PM (#4147126)
Bard is really bad right now and I think it's in his head a bit. I don't know that the skipping of him did it, but he's been terrible since (with one good start). I think he needs two weeks on the DL for "shoulder fatigue." They could throw Atchison for a spot start and bring up Melancon or Tazawa.


Head or arm they need to get him out of there. He's a mediocre starter who can't find the plate. If they need to they could start Padilla.
   15. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: June 03, 2012 at 11:18 PM (#4147212)
I don't know - Machado is probably an A-level pospect, right? There are probably some scouty reasons why he's considered much better than Bogaerts, but stat-wise I don't see a yawning chasm.

I mean, he's obviously nowhere near a Harper or Trout, but you don't trade those guys for anybody.


Well, yes, scouty stuff. And Machado is the same age and a full level higher (AA at 19) with the same production. And he's likely to stick at SS, where nobody thinks Bogaerts has a chance. I wouldn't say a yawning chasm, but it's a clear letter grade at a minimum.

   16. Darren Posted: June 03, 2012 at 11:39 PM (#4147257)
Did Sickels end up bumping him to A- in the book? He had him on the border online. From that and what he's done this year, it seems like A- is pretty fair. That's not untouchable, but pretty close.
   17. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: June 03, 2012 at 11:56 PM (#4147288)
Did Sickels end up bumping him to A- in the book? He had him on the border online. From that and what he's done this year, it seems like A- is pretty fair. That's not untouchable, but pretty close.


B+. And he was higher on him than any of the other big sources. He hasn't done anything this year to move that grade up.
   18. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 04, 2012 at 08:15 AM (#4147433)
Garza? His ERA+ is 95 right now
I don't think this is a fair summary of Garza's talents or projection. He projected to a 116 ERA+ preseason (ZiPS), and he still currently projects to an above average ERA over the rest of the season.

On the general point, I mean, if you want Dan Bard in the rotation regardless of his performance, then you won't want to trade for a starting pitcher. Any trade for a starting pitcher, at the moment, is premised on a Bard demotion of some sort. I think Bard's performance is unworthy of continued MLB starts (5.25 ERA, 5.64 FIP, stuff and command to match for the last month), so I am in favor of trading for a good pitcher.

I also think that with Lester still shaky, Beckett seemingly on the decline, and Buchholz a total wild card, the Sox could really use a front of the rotation starter to give them a bit more stability.
   19. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: June 04, 2012 at 10:29 AM (#4147511)
Bard is really bad right now and I think it's in his head a bit. I don't know that the skipping of him did it, but he's been terrible since (with one good start). I think he needs two weeks on the DL for "shoulder fatigue." They could throw Atchison for a spot start and bring up Melancon or Tazawa.


Why not just Matsuzaka? He isn't great down in Pawtucket, but isn't he bumping up against the limits of his rehab assignment?
   20. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 04, 2012 at 10:35 AM (#4147523)
Not anymore, I don't think. The Sox said he had a neck injury a week ago and shut him down for a few days, which extended his rehab clock to the end of June.
   21. Nasty Nate Posted: June 04, 2012 at 10:56 AM (#4147535)
The characterization of Garza in #9 is just bizarre.
   22. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 04, 2012 at 11:00 AM (#4147541)
They're carrying 12 pitchers including several (Padilla, Atchison, Morales) who can go multiple innings and a closer with a rubber arm. Frankly I'd be content to call up Melancon (who should be up anyway), disable Bard and let one of those three guys get the start. If I count right off days mean the Sox only need the fifth starter on the 9th then don't need him again until the 23rd by which time it is probably go time for Matsuzaka.
   23. Nasty Nate Posted: June 04, 2012 at 11:21 AM (#4147562)
They're carrying 12 pitchers including several (Padilla, Atchison, Morales) who can go multiple innings and a closer with a rubber arm. Frankly I'd be content to call up Melancon (who should be up anyway), disable Bard and let one of those three guys get the start.


What would be the point of all this? just to get Melancon on the team?
   24. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 04, 2012 at 11:32 AM (#4147578)
And to get Bard out of the rotation, back to somewhere he can work his #### out without losing us games.
   25. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 04, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4147581)
What would be the point of all this? just to get Melancon on the team?


I can think of three benefits;

1. Daniel Bard goes away and gets fixed. Whether it's AAA or the DL or to a whorehouse in some third world nation whatever it takes to make him better.

2. The Sox gain flexibility by not rushing Matsuzaka up before he is ready to go. Once the Sox call him up he is "stuck" in Boston unless he goes back on the DL.

3. Potentially identify people who can step in and make a start when needed. I am skeptical that the other four starters are going to make their 22 or so scheduled remaining starts so a little knowledge that Scott Atchison (for example) can take the ball and make a start is helpful.

1 & 2 are the biggest ones though. Melancon is pitching well but I'd be fine with a Mortensen call up (I like him) or even Tazawa.
   26. Nasty Nate Posted: June 04, 2012 at 12:00 PM (#4147611)
1. Daniel Bard goes away and gets fixed. Whether it's AAA or the DL or to a whorehouse in some third world nation whatever it takes to make him better.


I didn't watch yesterday's game, so maybe that's why I don't think removing him from the rotation is an emergency need. I try not to over-react to the ups and downs over a long season. That being said, I think the Sox should be looking to have a better SP than Bard in that spot in the rotation this season. But that should be when they acquire someone, or when/if Matsuzaka is healthy and effective, and not making one of your relievers a starter in a non-emergency situation. Also, the situation described in #22 is one that can withstand a bad outing, and keep the team in the game.

2. The Sox gain flexibility by not rushing Matsuzaka up before he is ready to go. Once the Sox call him up he is "stuck" in Boston unless he goes back on the DL.


Maybe I don't understand what you mean, but the Sox have the exact same flexibility w/ Matsuzaka whether it's Bard or Atchison/Mortensen getting the starts.

3. Potentially identify people who can step in and make a start when needed. I am skeptical that the other four starters are going to make their 22 or so scheduled remaining starts so a little knowledge that Scott Atchison (for example) can take the ball and make a start is helpful.


They know what they have with Atchison. He is a reliever who could probably make a spot start, but has only started 2 games since coming back from Japan a few years ago. Giving him a start this month doesn't really give them any more info.
   27. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 04, 2012 at 12:34 PM (#4147664)
I didn't watch yesterday's game, so maybe that's why I don't think removing him from the rotation is an emergency need. I try not to over-react to the ups and downs over a long season.
These are Bard's numbers this season:

55 IP, 52 H, 33 R, 6 HR, 37 BB, 34 K, 5.24 ERA, 81 ERA+, 5.65 FIP, -0.3 WAR

He's also leading the league with 8 HBP to go along with those 37 free passes. I don't think it's overreacting to judge Bard a poor bet to pitch well in a major league rotation right now.
   28. Nasty Nate Posted: June 04, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4147695)
I don't think it's overreacting to judge Bard a poor bet to pitch well in a major league rotation right now.


I don't either. I, too, think Bard is a poor bet to pitch well in a major league rotation right now. I also think that Atchison/Padilla/Mortensen would be a only slightly less poor bet as a starter at the moment, considering that none of them has been stretched out to start this season. And for a tiny potential benefit, you would be weakening the bullpen and hurting the chance that Bard does become a decent starter this year.
   29. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: June 04, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4147700)
I didn't watch yesterday's game, so maybe that's why I don't think removing him from the rotation is an emergency need. I try not to over-react to the ups and downs over a long season.


To add to what MCoA wrote. Media around the team has been discussing Bard's drop in velocity, specifically that he can never get it up to above 94 and never really hits that number. Some of the speculation is that there is an injury. Second, his statements after the game were discouraging and does not make you think this is a bump in the road, or something that can be tweeked. He basically said "this is not working" and the "this" is the way he is pitching as a starter, not being a starter. He wants to go back to doing things the way he did as a reliever, part of which was not thinking so much. So it seems to me, either he needs to work on his mechanics to get back to where he was before this year or he needs to get his head straight, either of which he shouldn't be doing while pitching for the Red Sox.
   30. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 04, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4147711)
I don't either. I, too, think Bard is a poor bet to pitch well in a major league rotation right now. I also think that Atchison/Padilla/Mortensen would be a only slightly less poor bet as a starter at the moment, considering that none of them has been stretched out to start this season. And for a tiny potential benefit, you would be weakening the bullpen and hurting the chance that Bard does become a decent starter this year.


One of the benefits of getting Bard out of the rotation is that you hopefully can fix him. Fixing him may mean having him contribute as a starter or it may mean having him go back to being a reliever but I think that benefit needs to be factored in. My fear is that Bard is damned close to the Ankiel line and I think getting him out of there before he gets to that point has value.
   31. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 04, 2012 at 01:59 PM (#4147781)
And for a tiny potential benefit, you would be weakening the bullpen and hurting the chance that Bard does become a decent starter this year.
This is basically a repeat of Jose's and Mitch's posts, but I don't think we know what interventions will increase the chance of Bard getting himself right. If I had to choose, I'd suggest that Bard needs either some time off or some time in AAA more than he needs another MLB start.
   32. Dan Posted: June 04, 2012 at 06:48 PM (#4148161)
According to Cafardo on Twitter, the Red Sox are going to "formulate a plan for Bard" tomorrow.
   33. Dan Posted: June 04, 2012 at 07:01 PM (#4148170)
Also on Bard, he had some interesting stuff to say after his last disaster, most notably:

"If anything, it's that I allowed something to happen when I switched roles. It's that maybe we tried to turn me into a starter rather than just taking the same pitcher I was out of the 'pen and moving that guy to the rotation," said Bard. "That's probably what should have been done. It's partially my fault. It's all my fault. It's a matter of getting back to what I had success doing in the past."


If he can actually turn those words into reality, he might be on to something. I think he showed in his first few starts (particularly the first start in Toronto) that he's capable of being a starting pitcher, but he needs to get back to the guy he was then and work from there. I think it would be a mistake to move him to the bullpen at this point, but I would probably send him to Pawtucket until he shows that he can throw strikes with his fastball and regain his velocity.
   34. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: June 04, 2012 at 07:06 PM (#4148176)
Yes. Agree with Dan. Earlier in the season, investing in Dan Bard's future success as a starter meant leaving him in the rotation and riding out the bumps. I think at this point it's become abundantly clear that investing in Dan Bard's future success as a starter means getting him out of the rotation and aggressively pursuing a solution.
   35. villageidiom Posted: June 04, 2012 at 07:57 PM (#4148264)
There was a period of time, well after the no-hitter, that Clay Buchholz was sent to the minors because he was failing as a starter. You remember, the guy who allowed a baserunner then for some reason must have thought he wasn't done pitching to the guy given that he kept throwing over to first. Buchholz's problem was his head: up to that point he hadn't faced enough adversity as a pitcher, and once he hit a point where he struggled he didn't know how to move past it.

I think Bard is in the same position, not knowing if he can succeed as a starter, that lack of confidence becoming self-fulfilling. If the Red Sox are committed to Bard becoming a starter, and he can't get it together, they need to send him down.
   36. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 05, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4149035)
Peter Abraham reports on twitter that Daniel Bard has been optioned to AAA. No corresponding move announced. (It might, for now, just be the activation of Darnell McDonald.)

Dice-K is scheduled to start tonight in Pawtucket, so he would be unable to cover Bard's scheduled start on Saturday.
   37. villageidiom Posted: June 05, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4149049)
Wow. It's rare when my opinion is a leading indicator.

EDIT: Whether he overcomes his difficulties or not, this is a fairly sure sign that they're committed to him as a starter. If they were to give up on the experiment he'd be in the bullpen.
   38. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 05, 2012 at 04:03 PM (#4149054)
Dice-K is scheduled to start tonight in Pawtucket, so he would be unable to cover Bard's scheduled start on Saturday.


But Matt Barnes did pitch last night and would be on schedule!
   39. Dan Posted: June 05, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4149060)
But Matt Barnes did pitch last night and would be on schedule!


They should do this in complete secrecy just for one start, in order to spring him on an unsuspecting opposing lineup with no scouting reports, etc. Then send him to Portland.
   40. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 05, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4149064)
Co-signed. It'd be like a reverse Ehmke.
   41. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 05, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4149066)
SoxProspects.com might crash if they did that.
   42. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 05, 2012 at 04:24 PM (#4149079)
The Sox face the Nationals on Saturday. Barnes facing Bryce Harper, another very good prospect, would be fun.
   43. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: June 05, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4149082)
(It might, for now, just be the activation of Darnell McDonald.)


He'd be a good Bard replacement for the rotation as well.
   44. Nasty Nate Posted: June 05, 2012 at 05:03 PM (#4149113)
The Sox agreed with you guys apparently.

*go the distance* Barnesday at Fenway!
   45. booond Posted: June 05, 2012 at 06:01 PM (#4149156)
Bryce Harper, another very good prospect


The anti-hyperbole.
   46. Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 05, 2012 at 06:21 PM (#4149170)
Dice-K is scheduled to start tonight in Pawtucket, so he would be unable to cover Bard's scheduled start on Saturday.

Apparently they plan to limit him to three innings tonight, which seems to leave the door open to him going five on Saturday.
   47. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 05, 2012 at 06:27 PM (#4149175)
Huh. That is odd for a rehabbing guy, but if they're limiting him to three innings, then surely they're planning to pitch him Saturday.
   48. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 06, 2012 at 10:01 AM (#4149643)
I can't find any information about Ryan Kalish's timeline. He's started three games in a row in CF, and his power appears to be back. I had assumed, given the length of his absence, that Kalish would play a month in the minors before getting called up. The Sox have promoted him aggressively, they've been playing him in the field, and he's producing. Is it too optimistic to imagine Kalish up in the majors next week as our everyday CF?
   49. Dan Posted: June 06, 2012 at 10:09 AM (#4149650)
With how he's playing, they'd be foolish to wait longer than that, especially when you account for how awful the other options all are.
   50. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 06, 2012 at 10:15 AM (#4149653)
Is it too optimistic to imagine Kalish up in the majors next week as our everyday CF?


My gut says it is. I think there are three things at work against him;

1. He's been out a long time. I suspect the Sox will take their time and make sure he's got his timing down. It's one thing to slap around Single and Double A kids, I think they're going to want a bit of a sustained run against the "men" of AAA before promoting him.

2. It's not like Kalish has a track record at the big league level that screams "get him in there." He certainly showed flashes in 2010 but .252/.305/.405 for a right fielder isn't a lock. This isn't a guy like Ellsbury or Crawford who has proven he can do it and is deserving of being pushed into the lineup.

3. God help us all the Sox outfield is playing well right now. While I don't think any of us expects Daniel Nava or especially Scott Podsednik to keep this up I don't think the Sox are in a position where they are going to feel compelled to rush Kalish to the bigs to help the team.

That can all change over the next 7-10 days but my wild guess is that we're talking two weeks at Pawtucket minimum before the Sox move him up. There is a strong likelihood he will be ready next week but for the reasons I laid out I don't think he'll be here until the Miami series (June 19) at the earliest.
   51. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 06, 2012 at 10:39 AM (#4149666)
I think that if Scott Podsednik hits .400 for two weeks, you shouldn't let that influence your decision-making for the future. You thank your dark master and make a note of precisely which of your children you offered into His service, and you set about to finding a real CF as soon as possible.

My other issue with Podsednik is that he isn't a center fielder. If Marlon Byrd were hitting like Scotty Pods is, I could sort of see the case for riding the hot hand. Podsednik is stretched in center for range, and he doesn't have the arm for the position at all.
   52. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 06, 2012 at 10:47 AM (#4149675)
Also, Dustin Pedroia did not look close to 100% at the plate. It was his first game back, so he could just be rusty. He might need an adjustment period with the thumb-brace. He might just have had a bad game for no reason. But since I already didn't trust the decision to run him back out to the field with an injured thumb, it's hard to watch him look bad at the plate and not think, dammit, he's going back on the DL in two weeks.
   53. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 06, 2012 at 10:48 AM (#4149679)
I think that if Scott Podsednik hits .400 for two weeks, you shouldn't let that influence your decision-making for the future.


Agreed but it takes away the need for a quick move to the Majors. It's not like the Sox are losing games because Scott Podsednik is in there and if a little extra time is useful for Kalish then you can take advantage of it. I'm not saying the Sox are going to go months with this arrangement but I think there is reason to believe that Kalish, and by extension the Sox, are better off with a little extra minor league time so if you can use the hot streak you use it.
   54. Dan Posted: June 06, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4149816)
1. He's been out a long time. I suspect the Sox will take their time and make sure he's got his timing down. It's one thing to slap around Single and Double A kids, I think they're going to want a bit of a sustained run against the "men" of AAA before promoting him.


He slapped around AAA pretty good last night!

I agree that Kalish isn't a "sure thing" but he's a much better bet to be a major league centerfielder than Podsednik or Byrd going forward. And during the time he plays center, you can see if he's going to hit enough to play RF after Ellsbury returns.
   55. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 06, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4149840)
I don't disagree with anything you say Dan, I'm just saying that I think the Sox are going to be patient for a variety of reasons one of which is the play of the player(s) he will be replacing.

One thing that jumped at me is his excellent K/BB rate since his return. Sample size and all but that's a nice return to his good 2010 in that regard.
   56. Dan Posted: June 06, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4149851)
He's walking and he's hitting home runs. Both are great signs for a guy who's missed so much time.
   57. Dan Posted: June 06, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4149869)
Adrian Gonzalez still only has 4 home runs and hasn't drawn a walk since May 15th (~80 PA ago).
   58. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 06, 2012 at 01:50 PM (#4149904)
I used Baseball Musings Day by Day Database to find periods where Adrian Gonzalez had a 55 game stretch with an OPS below .750;

2006 - April 17-June 27 .249/.291/.438, remainder of season .343/.403/.546

2007 - June 21-August 23 .245/.321/.417, remainder of season .307/.359/.556

2008 - June 29-August 31 .259/.344/.403, remainder of season .276/.388/.612

2012 - April 5-June 5 .262/.321/.407

What's worth noting is that in each of the other seasons he has had a slump like this there have been several 55 game stretches within it. For example, in 2007 there were 21 games you could have taken as the end point of a 55 game period and gotten a sub-.750 OPS. Obviously it's a bit unsettling to see this happening for the first time in four years but this is not some sort of outrageously bad slump.

I think it's worth remembering that this is not some sort of carryover slump. In September last year he hit .318/.455/.523 (.318/.391/.523 if you turn IBB into outs) so it's not like this slump goes back further than the start of this year.

I'm not saying it's not concerning or that we should just start singing "always look on the bright side" like the end of Life of Brian but this slump is far from unprecedented in length or magnitude in Adrian Gonzalez' career.
   59. Dan Posted: June 06, 2012 at 03:06 PM (#4150011)
In related news, Gonzalez is batting 6th in tonight's lineup, though it is against a lefty.
   60. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 06, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4150043)
Nick Cafardo tweeting to no surprise that Daisuke will pitch Saturday against Washington.
   61. booond Posted: June 06, 2012 at 03:48 PM (#4150054)
I think it's worth remembering that this is not some sort of carryover slump. In September last year he hit .318/.455/.523 (.318/.391/.523 if you turn IBB into outs) so it's not like this slump goes back further than the start of this year.


Last 125 games (starting with 2011 all-star break) he's hit 14 home runs. It is a carryover power outage.
   62. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 06, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4150067)
Last 125 games (starting with 2011 all-star break) he's hit 14 home runs. It is a carryover power outage.


That's heavily, heavily influenced by this year though. He hit 10 homers in 70 games after the break last year which is a 26 home run pace, not the 50 homers some were forecasting but it doesn't make him some kind of singles hitter either.

Yes, the power is down but not in a way that is dramatically different than anything he has done in the past.
   63. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: June 06, 2012 at 04:03 PM (#4150079)
Last 125 games (starting with 2011 all-star break) he's hit 14 home runs. It is a carryover power outage.


He hit 5 HR last August and 4 HR in September. 4-5 HR-a-month pace is around 24-30 a year. That's less than you'd like maybe, but certainly not an outage. This year is an outage, what with that 145 ISO.

EDIT: Or what Jose said.
   64. Dan Posted: June 06, 2012 at 11:48 PM (#4150476)
Kalish's overall stats during his 3 (brief) rehab stops: .385/.529/.769

Bring him to Boston.
   65. booond Posted: June 07, 2012 at 01:07 AM (#4150505)
He hit 10 homers in 70 games after the break last year which is a 26 home run pace,


It's a 23 home run pace. It would be his worst full season. The problem started last year and has carried over. He finished the year with a shoulder issue. It wouldn't be shocking if that problem sapped his power this year.
   66. Chip Posted: June 07, 2012 at 01:21 AM (#4150508)
When Gonzalez talked to Ken Rosenthal last September about his right shoulder fatigue - the one that was surgically repaired in 2010 - he said it was affecting his opposite field power. And lo and behold, that's what a lot of the discussion about him this year has centered on, the disappearance of his left field power stroke.
   67. Darren Posted: June 07, 2012 at 07:56 AM (#4150545)
Since the re-injury in May 2010, he's averaged 26 HRs per 700 PA, down from 36 HR/700 in the previous three years.

That's heavily, heavily influenced by this year though. He hit 10 homers in 70 games after the break last year which is a 26 home run pace, not the 50 homers some were forecasting but it doesn't make him some kind of singles hitter either.


But that's the best stretch from this period and it's far below what he was doing when healthy.
   68. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 07, 2012 at 08:45 AM (#4150557)
No one is arguing that Gonzalez has been good this year. The point I was attempting to make is that Gonzalez is not having such a horrible stretch that we shouldn't expect him to snap out of it and return to being the player he was.

Kalish's HR last night and Byrd's horseshit at bat in the 7th has me ready to call up Kalish right now. That was ####### painful.
   69. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 07, 2012 at 10:02 AM (#4150593)
Am I overreacting because I feel like tonight's game is fairly big given that it's a June game against Baltimore. A loss puts us back under .500, probably 4 games out of the second wild card and looking at a weekend where face Strasburg Friday, then have the return of Daisuke on Saturday, and then we face Zimmermann on Sunday. We could hit the road 6 out of a playoff spot and under .500. This is the only game of the next four that I feel like the pitching matchup favors us and that's being generous to Buchholz.
   70. Dan Posted: June 07, 2012 at 10:13 AM (#4150602)
No, I don't really think that's an overreaction when you consider the matchups over the weekend. Not only is Matsuzaka starting Saturday, but he's facing Gio Gonzalez, who has been the hardest pitcher to hit in the NL this season.
   71. Mattbert Posted: June 07, 2012 at 10:15 AM (#4150605)
Saturday's opponent is Gio Gonzalez, so that's a big ask with just about anyone short of Peak Pedro on the hill for the good guys.

EDIT: Coke to Mr. Dan.
   72. Dan Posted: June 07, 2012 at 09:03 PM (#4151246)
Reddick and Lowrie are each on pace for 6 WAR seasons. Even if they play at replacement level for the rest of the year, they'd both be league average players (~2 WAR).
   73. Dan Posted: June 09, 2012 at 10:59 AM (#4152288)
Byrd has in fact been DFAed.
   74. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: June 09, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4152368)
So long, Marlon. You weren't very good, but you tried hard and I appreciated your weird, ineffective hustle.
   75. Dan Posted: June 09, 2012 at 10:16 PM (#4152709)
Kalish was activated from the 60 day DL this evening and optioned to Pawtucket, so technically he's no longer on rehab.

He also went 4-5 tonight, including his 3rd home run of the week in Pawtucket. Just call this guy up already!

Barnes pitched a 7 inning CG (Doubleheader), allowing 5 hits and 3 walks while King 5.
   76. Dan Posted: June 10, 2012 at 10:39 AM (#4152878)
Rich Hill to the DL with "forearm stiffness"

Melancon called up from Pawtucket
   77. Dan Posted: June 10, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4152886)
Ruh roh:

Rich Hill (forearm) will visit Dr. James Andrews Monday.


Hopefully it's just some scar tissue or something from the TJ surgery. He did rush back, so a setback wouldn't be a shock. It'd be really unfortunate to see him need another surgery. He's a nice story and a really likable guy.
   78. booond Posted: June 10, 2012 at 11:26 AM (#4152892)
Just call this guy up already!


Yes. He proved in 2010 that he can hit AA/AAA pitching.

They should move Barnes to AA too. His Pedro-lite act needs a bigger venue.
   79. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 10, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4153306)
I was at the game today, was there any explanation for not letting Nava hit for either Punto or Podsednik?
   80. Dan Posted: June 10, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4153309)
He was scratched from the starting lineup with a sore hand, so I assume he was unavailable.
   81. Chip Posted: June 10, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4153312)
Valentine just said in his post game conference that Nava required an injection and was thus unavailable. I assume cortisone.

Like Pedroia, it's a bad thumb, so of course they won't just disable him to let it heal.
   82. Dan Posted: June 10, 2012 at 05:42 PM (#4153326)
Another hurt OFer! Huzzah!

Just DL him and bring up Kalish.
   83. Answer Guy Posted: June 10, 2012 at 06:21 PM (#4153345)
It's obviously not happening this season.

Trade Youkilis for prospects. See what you can get for Saltalamacchia too. Let the guys with the broken thumbs rest, and for God's sake don't rush anyone back from injury.

   84. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: June 10, 2012 at 06:26 PM (#4153348)
Are the broken-thumb brigade on Twitter? I'd immediately fine them if they tweet from a mobile device.
   85. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: June 10, 2012 at 06:27 PM (#4153349)
Trade Saltalamacchia? Huh? Why?
   86. Answer Guy Posted: June 10, 2012 at 06:32 PM (#4153351)
a. I think he might a culprit for the underperforming pitching staff.
b. He hits well enough, but he's a defensive liability, even if (a) isn't true.
c. I don't think he's really part of the long-term plan of this club, but he unquestionably has trade value.
d. There's not much else worth trading on this team other than Youkilis.
   87. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: June 10, 2012 at 06:34 PM (#4153354)
Who's gonna catch?
   88. Answer Guy Posted: June 10, 2012 at 06:36 PM (#4153355)
Play Shoppach, and call up Lavarnway. Have them split the job.
   89. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 11, 2012 at 08:46 AM (#4153515)
-Sucky week. Sox scored 23 runs, allowed 25, and went 1-5. Now sitting at 29-31 with a 32-28 Pythag.

-If Nava is hurt, it's going to be very hard for the Sox to justify a take-it-slow approach with Kalish's rehab.

-Shoppach is not an everyday catcher, he's a solid short-side platoon guy having a little babip fluke. If he played against RHP, he'd be hitting .180 at best.

-The Red Sox are having an excellent year in the minors, which means that if they want to upgrade, they don't have to move major league talent.
   90. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 11, 2012 at 09:02 AM (#4153520)
As bad as this week was I still don't think it's time to panic. I still think this is a team well suited for a strong second half. I think the rotation stacks up nicely with Buchholz' recent improvement I feel good about our top three. I'm still confident in Gonzalez and the return of Ellsbury, Gonzalez and possibly Kalish should help.

The concern I have is that they are going to fade too far back. They're now 5 games out of the 2nd Wild Card and 6 out of the division, if we don't start getting some wins the hill is going to be rather steep.
   91. Answer Guy Posted: June 11, 2012 at 10:08 AM (#4153554)
Panic may not be the right word. But that sample size grows less small every day. This is the worst Sox team since Jimy Williams was skipper.
   92. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 11, 2012 at 10:24 AM (#4153567)
From BBRef - worst 60 game stretch by season;

2003 - 32-28 (+36 run differential)
2004 - 29-31 (+21)
2005 - 31-29 (+11)
2006 - 23-37 (-92)
2007 - 32-28 (+24)
2008 - 31-29 (+39)
2009 - 32-28 (+24)
2010 - 29-31 (-14)
2011 - 26-34 (+2)
2012 - 29-31 (+20)
   93. Answer Guy Posted: June 11, 2012 at 11:08 AM (#4153626)
Sox are 84-78 in their last 162 games. That's about what I expected of them going in this year. If the injuries persist they may have trouble even reaching that number.
   94. SoSH U at work Posted: June 11, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4153640)
From BBRef - worst 60 game stretch by season;

2003 - 32-28 (+36 run differential)
2004 - 29-31 (+21)
2005 - 31-29 (+11)
2006 - 23-37 (-92)
2007 - 32-28 (+24)
2008 - 31-29 (+39)
2009 - 32-28 (+24)
2010 - 29-31 (-14)
2011 - 26-34 (+2)
2012 - 29-31 (+20)


Are those other nine examples the worst 60-game stretches in any given season (you know, with the absolute worst possible end points selected)?
   95. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 11, 2012 at 11:31 AM (#4153657)
Are those other nine examples the worst 60-game stretches in any given season (you know, with the absolute worst possible end points selected)?


Exactly.

For what it's worth each season had multiple 60 game stretches like that but they heavily overlapped. Like 2012 you could take 8/1-9/22 or 8/2-9/23, that sort of thing. The run differential I used was the worst among what was typically about 5-6 "worst stretches."
   96. Answer Guy Posted: June 11, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4153685)
I'm sure that you could perform a similar "they're not that bad" exercise on almost any losing team that's not the '62 Mets or '03 Tigers.
   97. Swedish Chef Posted: June 12, 2012 at 01:05 AM (#4154400)
Just two questions:

Would a comparison of the best 60-game stretch of 2012 and previous years be fair?

If no, in what way does that differ from comparing the worst stretches?
   98. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: June 12, 2012 at 08:27 AM (#4154469)
Would a comparison of the best 60-game stretch of 2012 and previous years be fair?

If no, in what way does that differ from comparing the worst stretches?


My argument would be that I believe the 2012 Sox are better than they've been and that we should expect them not to go through a stretch like this in the future. I still expect Gonzalez and Pedroia to step it up and deliver what we have come to expect and I think the pitching has been generally good, particularly with Buchholz' recent improvements.

Having said that last night's loss kicked me in the nuts. I don't know why but for the first time I genuinely feel like we are 100% cooked. One game shouldn't matter that much and evaluations made during prolonged slumps are prone to error but that's the one that got me. I feel dramatically more pessimistic than I did at this time yesterday.
   99. Answer Guy Posted: June 12, 2012 at 09:09 AM (#4154480)
By my count they're 12-18 after a loss. That probably isn't too far out of the norm for a 29-32 team but it does make every loss feel worse since it seems like when it rains, it pours for this squad.
   100. Nasty Nate Posted: June 22, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4163623)
*Bump*
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