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Sunday, August 04, 2019

Unacceptable

Well the good news is they aren’t dead yet but at this point pretending the 2019 Boston Red Sox are going to mount any kind of defense of their 2018 World Series title is a fool’s errand to say the least.  The simple reality is the pitching has been a complete disaster and frankly it’s a bit of a shocker.  From top to bottom they have underperformed and I can’t help but feel like this falls heavily on the shoulders of Alex Cora and management in general (both above and below him) for the arrogant approach to the season. 

Having said that I think the Sox should enter 2020 as a 90+ win playoff and division contender.  The future is bright.  Let’s look at reasons for optimism moving forward with the continued hope that they will right the ship and earn a Wild Card spot.

Rafael Devers - No reason not to start here.  Whatever else has happened this year the presumptive superstar (and Ben Cherington’s greatest gift) exploded in 2019.  Not only has become a genuine star at the plate his defense has improved dramatically.  After a truly awful start he found his footing defensively and has become a very good defender with a particular emphasis on some truly impressive range.  I look forward to watching him for the next several years.

Extensions for Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts - We’ll start with the one no one will argue.  Xander signed the long extension and elevated his game impressively.  Quite simply he has become the superstar the Sox have hoped he would become.  Like Devers he is going to be a force to be reckoned with.

Sale is probably a bit more concerning given his season but I think the long term will be good.  He continues to lead all of baseball in K/9 and his FIP is over a run better than his actual ERA suggesting that even without any rebound his 2020 will be far superior to 2019.  On top of that I think in retrospect it should not be a huge shock he has struggled a bit.  This is a guy with a history of breaking down late in seasons.  Coming off a year where he worked much further into the season and had a shortened off-season some residual problems don’t seem surprising.  I expect him to be excellent in 2020.

The Minors - The Sox emptied out the system for the 2016-2018 run and it is hard to argue with the results.  They did an excellent job (not unlike the late-90s Yankees) of keeping the right guys and selling at the right time on others to acquire key contributors.  2019 has seen some impressive contribution from the youth at the big league level with Michael Chavis in particular looking like a guy who can be a useful part.

Behind that the Sox have seen some players show some growth.  Bobby Dalbec, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, Triston Casas and Gilberto Jimenez have all had strong seasons.  It’s not a top 10 system or anything but unlike where they were this year (and frankly last) there are signs of help on the way.

Christian Vazquez* - OK, it’s possible, not definite but possible, that the Sox chose the right catcher from the choice of Blake Swihart or Vazquez.  Swihart will probably still have four or five All Star Games in him of course but Vazquez looks like a genuinely strong piece for the future.  I suspect the bat will come back some in 2020 but he looks like a guy who can be productive and of course he is a weapon behind the plate.  There is a reason the Sox are third in the league in fewest steals allowed.

* I swear to God I was typing that paragraph and then Vazquez homered about halfway through it.

Hey, this has been a bust of a season.  I think we all knew they weren’t a 108 win team and similarly they aren’t the mid-80s win team they are looking like they are going to wind up.  I think with just some modest adjustments (SIGN A RELIEVER WHO CAN THROW A FREAKIN’ STRIKE THAT DOESN’T LAND ON THE PIKE) there is no reason this team should set its sights on anything less than division contention in 2020.

Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: August 04, 2019 at 09:41 PM | 52 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. villageidiom Posted: August 05, 2019 at 08:54 AM (#5868302)
I'm going to be the guy to say it. Another bright spot is the apparent end of Dustin Pedroia's career.

Don't get me wrong: there's nobody I'd want out there other than Pedroia when he was at the top of his game. But it's been evident for a long time now that Pedroia will never be remotely near that level of performance again. We're done with the whole charade of bulking up his knee with chewing gum and duct tape so he could get back to being the Pedroia we needed. They can pursue a long-term replacement instead of just biding time until he's "back".
   2. jmurph Posted: August 05, 2019 at 09:30 AM (#5868313)
Obviously this would all be much more upsetting if they hadn't won last year. As it is it's hard to muster much outrage.

Literally my only concern for the remainder of the season is ensuring the culture doesn't sour to the point that Mookie's decision-making is impacted. I think that's probably a long shot, but you know, until they sign a contract I'll be anxious.
   3. villageidiom Posted: August 05, 2019 at 09:33 AM (#5868316)
One other thing: I don't know if the plan to ease the players into the season was Cora's, or if he was simply executing a front office plan. He is accountable either way, but if his head rolls over this and it was someone else's plan I wouldn't expect replacing him would make things any better.

What we've learned from the process are these, IMO:

1. Giving the players basically an extra month to get acclimated has put them one month behind the rest of the league, all season long. Now, maybe that pays off in September when everyone else gets worn down. But until then it sucks.

2. Easing into the season might have had a health benefit. Looking at the IL stints this year we had Price out for a brief time; Eovaldi out for an extended time; Pearce and Moreland out for extended time; and of course Pedroia. All of that strikes me as normal for those players, except for maybe one of the 1B. Holt had a scratched cornea from his adorable son; various players had back injuries, and none of that seemed like it stemmed from the short off-season. I think whether the extra time helped depends on whether the underperforming players (such as Sale) are members of the John Lackey Memorial Hidden Injury Club. If their underperformance has been due to injury, one could argue that the slow start to the season didn't have a health benefit. But if they just suck, then easing into the season actually kept injuries pretty smooth this year, and the easing was more of an effectiveness issue. That might sound like splitting hairs, and maybe it is. But it's good to recognize what actually worked and what didn't.
   4. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: August 05, 2019 at 09:51 AM (#5868322)
Yeah, to be clear I’m not calling for Cora’s head. I would find such cries as outrageous as the seemingly daily calls for Farrell’s head. I think what is fair to say is that Cora did a great job in 2018 and has done a poor job in 2019 and I suspect he is somewhere in between. Assuming he and Dombrowski/the Front Office are on the same page I feel pretty good with him in charge.
   5. karlmagnus Posted: August 07, 2019 at 10:06 AM (#5869035)
Can we get rid of Dombrowski yet? The good bits of this team were all assembled by Ben Cherington; Dombrowski has pulled in overpaid veterans who don't perform, as he did in Detroit. Either get Cherington back or admit that the whole Henry era has been a ghastly mistake and re-hire Dan Duquette, who is once again available!
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 07, 2019 at 11:07 AM (#5869061)
Either get Cherington back or admit that the whole Henry era has been a ghastly mistake and re-hire Dan Duquette, who is once again available!

Four World Championships in 17 years is a "ghastly mistake"? Wow!
   7. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 07, 2019 at 11:15 AM (#5869072)
Red Sox fans are just terminally spoiled by success, all triggered by a single stolen base 15 years ago.
   8. jmurph Posted: August 07, 2019 at 11:37 AM (#5869087)
This is just karl's shtick, you guys should be used to it by now. No one has any idea what he's on about, going on 15 or so years now.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 07, 2019 at 11:43 AM (#5869095)
This is just karl's shtick, you guys should be used to it by now. No one has any idea what he's on about, going on 15 or so years now.

Yeah, but his schtick used to be semi-grounded in real events. This post is just wack-a-doo.
   10. SoSH U at work Posted: August 07, 2019 at 11:47 AM (#5869099)

Yeah, but his schtick used to be semi-grounded in real events.


I think you give him too much credit.

   11. Nasty Nate Posted: August 07, 2019 at 11:48 AM (#5869100)
I think his shtick was 90% stuff he believed, originally. But after all his analyses and predictions were proven wrong and stupid, he played up the shtick angle and just became a troll.
   12. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: August 08, 2019 at 02:50 AM (#5869422)
The good bits of this team were all assembled by Ben Cherington; Dombrowski has pulled in overpaid veterans who don't perform

On the other hand, this is 100% true.
   13. jmurph Posted: August 08, 2019 at 09:35 AM (#5869469)
On the other hand, this is 100% true.

Yeah I really regret those Sale and JD Martinez acquisitions.
   14. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: August 08, 2019 at 09:50 AM (#5869475)
Karl has been “wack-a-doo” for a long time. The Sox have been one of the most successful organization in baseball since the Henry group took over (you can make a case for most successful but I ding them for a couple of bad years that the Yankees and Cardinals haven’t had).

Just for reference the top 12 players this year by WAR;

Betts, Bogaerts, Workman, Vazquez - Theo
Devers, EdRod, Benintendi, Chavis - Cherington
Martinez, Sale, Price, Walden- DD

And just because I was curious the 2018 World Champs;

Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley - Theo
Benintendi, Porcello, EdRod, Wright - Cherington
Sale, Martinez, Price, Kimbrel, Velazquez (!) - DD

Honestly Cherington is a bit better than I expected on these two lists.
   15. karlmagnus Posted: August 08, 2019 at 11:52 AM (#5869519)
You could argue that Cherington's "don't trade prospects away but wait for them to mature" is responsible for several of the Theo names on that list, even though Theo drafted them in his last years. Of the three Henry-era GMs, I liked the Cherington approach best, and dislike the Dombrowski approach most -- Theo grew on me, after initial rejection of the "Wonder Boy" persona, but Theo may indeed have improved as he got out from under Lucchino.

I'd dearly love to rebuild the prospect machine -- Betts, Bogearts and Devers (and EdRod) growing year by year is truly wonderful, and builds champions. To do that, we need to lose Dombrowski.

Don't know why my simple views get me called a fruitcake by everyone, but I'm sort of used to it by now!
   16. Lassus Posted: August 08, 2019 at 01:05 PM (#5869563)
Don't know why my simple views get me called a fruitcake by everyone

Because the whole era you deemed a ghastly mistake won four World Series.
   17. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: August 08, 2019 at 01:19 PM (#5869565)
Because the whole era you deemed a ghastly mistake won four World Series.


True but;

- that’s 14 years they DIDN’T win a World Series.

- how does this 18 year stretch compare to other 18 year eras of Red Sox baseball. The Yawkey era certainly had similar if not better success.

- if they only had held onto Duquette they’d be thriving like the model organization that is the Baltimore Orioles right now.
   18. pikepredator Posted: August 08, 2019 at 02:35 PM (#5869592)
just went to Mexico for a week and a half. the Sox didn't win while I was gone. I accept full responsibility for my actions. They were flying high before I left.

I'm sorry, fellow fans.
   19. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: August 08, 2019 at 02:46 PM (#5869598)
That you recognize your error and apologize for it is enough for me.
   20. jmurph Posted: August 08, 2019 at 02:51 PM (#5869602)
just went to Mexico for a week and a half. the Sox didn't win while I was gone. I accept full responsibility for my actions. They were flying high before I left.

I'm sorry, fellow fans.

I think the only way to undo this is to send the rest of us to Mexico as a counterweight. Or just me, just me is fine too.
   21. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 08, 2019 at 02:59 PM (#5869606)
The simple reality is the pitching has been a complete disaster and frankly it’s a bit of a shocker. From top to bottom they have underperformed and I can’t help but feel like this falls heavily on the shoulders of Alex Cora and management in general (both above and below him) for the arrogant approach to the season.
We’re pretty far into the season, so it may be that the babying of the pitching staff during spring training isn’t the sole problem. In any event, given the amount of money committed to Sale, Price & Eovaldi for the next few years, does Boston have any real option other than hoping those guys bounce back? Doesn’t look like the farm system is likely to produce much help in the immediate future, although I suppose you can’t rule out a surprise. Seems like the Red Sox don’t have a lot more money to invest in pitching if they are going to stay below the top of the luxury tax threshold and pay fair market value to retain their young players.
   22. jmurph Posted: August 08, 2019 at 03:32 PM (#5869614)
In any event, given the amount of money committed to Sale, Price & Eovaldi for the next few years, does Boston have any real option other than hoping those guys bounce back? Doesn’t look like the farm system is likely to produce much help in the immediate future, although I suppose you can’t rule out a surprise. Seems like the Red Sox don’t have a lot more money to invest in pitching if they are going to stay below the top of the luxury tax threshold and pay fair market value to retain their young players.

You're not wrong on the big point- Sale, Price, and Eovaldi are going to need to be better going forward, given the money involved. But big picture I don't think it's as dire as you present. Porcello and Sandoval(!) combine to account for about $39 million this year as far as the luxury tax is calculated. They should have some room to maneuver.
   23. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 08, 2019 at 04:11 PM (#5869628)
I had forgotten about Sandoval - he doesn’t get much mention here anymore for some reason, although the Giants seem to have resurrected him a bit this year (114 OPS+). However, assuming big contracts are coming for Betts & Devers, that 2020 financial window might quickly get a bit tight, making any significant pitching gains dependent on Sale, Price & Eovaldi improving or getting unexpectedly lucky without spending that much elsewhere. Could happen, but maybe not.
   24. Nasty Nate Posted: August 08, 2019 at 04:16 PM (#5869630)
At least karlmagnus is succinct.
   25. bfan Posted: August 08, 2019 at 04:18 PM (#5869633)
Once the Red Sox drop below X% play-off chances (pick your own "X"), do you shut down Sale for the remainder of the season, to save the number of career pitches he has left in his arm for pitches (and innings) where team success is achievable?
   26. pikepredator Posted: August 08, 2019 at 04:19 PM (#5869634)
I think we have to remain confident that Price, Sale, and Eovaldi are talented pitchers who will return to form. Price and Sale have pitched reasonably well for the most part even if results haven't been as good as we'd like.

My unshakable fear is that at least two of them have some kind of medical/structural issue that could prevent that from happening.

Fortunately, the line-up is fantastic. Bounce-back from the pitching staff and we're in the thick of things.
   27. grandcosmo Posted: August 08, 2019 at 04:21 PM (#5869635)
Either get Cherington back or admit that the whole Henry era has been a ghastly mistake and re-hire Dan Duquette, who is once again available!
Too bad Buddy LeRoux is dead, right?
   28. Nasty Nate Posted: August 08, 2019 at 04:36 PM (#5869637)
Once the Red Sox drop below X% play-off chances (pick your own "X"), do you shut down Sale for the remainder of the season, to save the number of career pitches he has left in his arm for pitches (and innings) where team success is achievable?
Yes. But if they don't make the wildcard game, elimination will come late in the season so probably only a start or 2. At that point, they might even just rest Price and Rodriguez too.
   29. bfan Posted: August 08, 2019 at 06:13 PM (#5869667)
Yes. But if they don't make the wildcard game, elimination will come late in the season so probably only a start or 2. At that point, they might even just rest Price and Rodriguez too.


It depends what your choice for x% is. Right now I am looking at the Baseball prospectus play-off odds which put the Red Sox chances to make the play-offs at below 5%. You can let 24 guys on the roster continue to go all-out to get that 1 in 20 chance (to play on the road in a 1 game crap-shoot), but if stopping now makes Chris Sale better in 2020, do you stop him now?
   30. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 08, 2019 at 11:16 PM (#5869744)
but if stopping now makes Chris Sale better in 2020, do you stop him now?


Chris Sale had been reading this and gave you the big FU about shutting him down this year with this very tidy 99 pitch, 8 IP 2H, 13K outing today.
   31. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: August 09, 2019 at 01:47 AM (#5869753)
On the other hand, this is 100% true.

Yeah I really regret those Sale and JD Martinez acquisitions.

Well, I don't think you should, but you're right not to get all worked up about JDM. He wasn't critical to last year's success, though he had a good year, and he's not wowing anyone this year either. He'll certainly opt in to his option year for 2020, and that's money we could probably spend better somewhere else.

Sale's a trickier one. Kopech having blown out his arm almost immediately helps make one side of the case, sort of. This year has continued to be inexplicable for him. I guess we'll see!
   32. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: August 09, 2019 at 09:22 AM (#5869777)
Swihart will probably still have four or five All Star Games in him of course


No way, Jose.
   33. jmurph Posted: August 09, 2019 at 11:56 AM (#5869828)
On the other hand, this is 100% true.

Yeah I really regret those Sale and JD Martinez acquisitions.

I was (gently) mocking/arguing with you! I don't regret those at all, of course, they've been great.
   34. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: August 09, 2019 at 05:43 PM (#5869985)
JD has been hitting very well the last couple of weeks. If the rest of the team gets as hot they can get back in it. It's a long climb but they're good enough. It's obvious that they have to do it with their bats, because their pitching is erratic.
   35. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 09, 2019 at 10:10 PM (#5870057)
I don't think you shut anyone down until you're eliminated. Obviously they're unlikely to even make the wild card playoff at this point, but this roster is so talented that I wouldn't put it beyond them to succeed in the playoffs if they get there.
   36. Phil Coorey. Posted: August 12, 2019 at 12:15 AM (#5870443)
This team reminds me of 2006 in every way
   37. bfan Posted: August 12, 2019 at 07:57 AM (#5870454)

Chris Sale had been reading this and gave you the big FU about shutting him down this year with this very tidy 99 pitch, 8 IP 2H, 13K outing today.


Chris Sale is a great pitcher; it is hard to argue with that. The only question is the number of pitches left in his arm and how to best allocate them among the seasons he has in Boston.
   38. villageidiom Posted: August 12, 2019 at 08:52 AM (#5870460)
This team reminds me of 2006 in every way
I'm still hoping they'll remind me of the 2004 team. No team came back from 0-3, but no team as talented as the 2004 team had been down 0-3 to begin with. This year's edition is a talented team.
   39. pikepredator Posted: August 12, 2019 at 09:35 AM (#5870476)
I'm still hoping they'll remind me of the 2004 team. No team came back from 0-3, but no team as talented as the 2004 team had been down 0-3 to begin with. This year's edition is a talented team.


I love you optimism!! But I am having trouble mimicking it this morning.
   40. Rally Posted: August 12, 2019 at 09:56 AM (#5870481)
No team came back from 0-3, but no team as talented as the 2004 team had been down 0-3 to begin with.


Haven't done a comprehensive search, but I'll go with the 1954 Indians as the most talented team down 0-3 in a postseason series.
   41. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: August 12, 2019 at 10:30 AM (#5870497)
The talent to get on a run is there but for whatever reason; age, fatigue, some intangible...it just ain’t happening this year. At this point it’s hard to believe it will. The pitching just isn’t performing to it’s ability. With only 42 games left and 7 1/2 games back it’s hard to see it happening.
   42. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: August 12, 2019 at 02:49 PM (#5870637)
I would just like to point out that Mookie is up to 40 career WAR. That is the 10th best start to anyone's career (through 6 seasons)ever, and he may very well end up around 6th place or so.

All the moves the Sox have made will be wiped out if they do not resign him to a long, hopefully career, contract.
   43. Answer Guy. Posted: August 12, 2019 at 10:43 PM (#5870800)
Are they even going to finish above .500?
   44. Textbook Editor Posted: August 12, 2019 at 10:52 PM (#5870806)
Probably not.

Long time to sit at the window and wait for Spring, but I feel like I need to get the chair ready.

I’d throw a chair, but what’s the point?

The upside to the season: no overtaxed pitchers come Spring Training!
   45. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 13, 2019 at 12:42 AM (#5870832)
I would just like to point out that Mookie is up to 40 career WAR. That is the 10th best start to anyone's career (through 6 seasons)ever, and he may very well end up around 6th place or so.

All the moves the Sox have made will be wiped out if they do not resign him to a long, hopefully career, contract.
Betts seems like a guy you sign for fair market value without too much haggling. His kind doesn’t come around that often, and while he’ll cost a lot, you’re likely to get a lot. I find it hard to believe the Red Sox wouldn’t offer him enough to get a deal done this offseason.
   46. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 13, 2019 at 02:31 AM (#5870841)
I find it hard to believe the Red Sox wouldn’t offer him enough to get a deal done this offseason.



And let's play the speculation game! What will it take to sign Mookie?

I'm thinking 10/340 or 8/295 type of thing.
   47. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: August 13, 2019 at 09:39 AM (#5870884)
I'm thinking 10/340 or 8/295 type of thing.


And opt outs! Can't forget those.
   48. pikepredator Posted: August 13, 2019 at 09:40 AM (#5870885)
yeah, should be more than Machado. Face of the franchise money, I'm fine with a long deal for big $$.
   49. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: August 13, 2019 at 10:42 AM (#5870917)
I think the contracts for Harper, Machado and Trout make it really easy to get Mookie done;

13/330
10/300
12/428

Sit down with him, get him in the middle of that somewhere and there is no reason an agreement can’t be reached. 12/350, maybe push it to 360 to hit that “$30 million” threshold. Haggle a bit but no reason not to get it done.
   50. karlmagnus Posted: August 14, 2019 at 02:49 PM (#5871348)
Mookie's a very nice player, but I think WaR overrates him -- he's an outfielder with a 132 OPS+, which isn't earth-shattering -- far below Manny for example. He looks a Robinson Cano-level talent, so the Sox should be in the 8/250 range rather than higher (his fielding skills will presumably atrophy in his 30's, anyway.)

Need to keep some money back for Devers!
   51. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: August 14, 2019 at 03:08 PM (#5871366)
Mookie's a very nice player, but I think WaR overrates him -- he's an outfielder with a 132 OPS+, which isn't earth-shattering -- far below Manny for example. He looks a Robinson Cano-level talent, so the Sox should be in the 8/250 range rather than higher (his fielding skills will presumably atrophy in his 30's, anyway.)


He's Dwight Evans with better baserunning, better fielding, and a better potential peak. That is a no doubt HoF player. Also, not really sure how calling someone a Robinson Cano talent is supposed to be a bad thing; Cano has put up 53.8 WAR in the last 10 years, including his current negative value year.
   52. Darren Posted: August 30, 2019 at 01:31 PM (#5875647)
13/330
10/300
12/428


I'd add Arenado at 8/260.

One thing to remember about these numbers is that Mookie is projected to be better than Harper and Machado, but won't be a free agent until age 28, instead of 26. That means that a 10 year deal for him includes ages 36 and 37 instead of ages 26 and 27. I did a very quick and dirty comparison, and it looks like a fair contract, based on the Machado/Harper precedents, would be something like 11/325, including the age 27 arb year at about $26MM (to match Arenado's record number).

Basing this on Trout's contract, you come in at around 11/$236MM. Arenado's really interesting in that he was in the same situation that Mookie faces this offseason--one year away from FA--and was one year older. The Rockies really paid through the nose for him, and based on his rate, Mookie would be worth something like 11/$380MM.

Overall, I guess you could really end up anywhere in the range of 10/300 to 12/350. Either side might not be comfortable with that.

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