Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Sox Therapy > Discussion
Sox Therapy
— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. chris p Posted: July 03, 2007 at 10:55 PM (#2427976)
apparently carlos almanzar is on the red sox payroll but hasn't appeared in a game at any level this year? is that right? if so, probably not a coincidence that they signed his kid.
   2. Mister High Standards Posted: July 04, 2007 at 02:05 PM (#2428680)
Thats how you make up for not having first round pick.
   3. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 05, 2007 at 01:54 PM (#2429466)
Sox seem to be rebuilding their Latin programs, which is good to see.

Question - I think it was Temple who mentioned Anthony Alvarez, a 17-year-old who made the GCL roster, skipping the VSL. There's now a guy on the GCL team named Jose Alvarez, who's 18, who was born in Venezeula and who seems to have the same physical characteristics as Anthony. Is this the same guy, but with new documentation? Either way, he's still quite young, and he's been pretty good, 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 4 K.
   4. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 05, 2007 at 02:06 PM (#2429476)
Are these players 16 years old or "16 years old"?
   5. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 05, 2007 at 02:13 PM (#2429479)
I assume age-gate risks are really low with $1.5M bonus babies - there are a lot of teams in the running, all with great incentive to make sure the documentation is right. It's the $10k signings where the risk lies.
   6. Josh Posted: July 05, 2007 at 02:44 PM (#2429509)
His father is 33. I suppose he could be older than 16, but I'd rather not think about it.
   7. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: July 05, 2007 at 05:02 PM (#2429645)
Are these players 16 years old or "16 years old"?


I think with Jairo Garcia/Santiago Casilla, we may have seen the last of "16 year olds." A lot of the dust has been shaken off the pre-9/11 documentation and now the standards are a lot more rigorous.

Or am I talking out of my butt?
   8. plim Posted: July 05, 2007 at 07:29 PM (#2429750)
besides, even if he was "16 years old" it's not like he's really 24. at most, they're going to shave off a couple years. if he's still as good as advertised, and like 18-19, that's still not that bad.

or am *I* talking out of my butt? =)
   9. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 05, 2007 at 07:38 PM (#2429762)
or am *I* talking out of my butt? =)
Yeah, I think you are. Imagine if Lars Anderson were 22 years old - he'd be having a pretty nice season, but he'd be far away from being an impressive prospect. If this kid were 18, he'd need to be ready to hit in the sally league next year to have a ranking that fits with the outlay.

Further, bonus babies generally don't fake their age - if they're that good, they want the money as soon as possible, and they're showcased to the teams as soon as possible. The age-gates with high dollar signings have been with players who faked their age in the other direction, claiming to be 16 when they weren't yet. (Edgar Renteria, Adrian Beltre)
   10. Darren Posted: July 06, 2007 at 03:24 AM (#2430635)
I agree with MC. If there's any faking going on here, it'd be boosting his age rather than reducing it.


Since this is the minor league thread, Adam Mills has recorded 27 outs for Lowell: 7 Ks, 18 GBs, and 2 FBs. That's a 9.0 GO/AO ratio.
   11. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 06, 2007 at 03:39 AM (#2430655)
Oscar Tejeda continues to tear it up in the GCL, going 2-for-4 with a double, again. He's up to 340/426/553, half his hits have gone for extra bases, and, oh yeah, he's a 17-year-old shortstop. I know it's still too early, but I'm very excited about this kid - he looks like the real deal.
   12. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: July 06, 2007 at 03:35 PM (#2430977)
Who is Oscar Tejeda?

I could google it but I wouldn't want to deprive you the pleasure of being all, "OMG you don't know who Oscar Tejeda is?"
   13. plim Posted: July 06, 2007 at 03:48 PM (#2430990)
oh, i'm not disputing that if he's age-gating, that he's actually older, but i was saying that if they say he's 16 and he's age-gating, chances are he's still only 18-19, and is it so horrible that he's 18-19? it's not like he's 22-24 and should already be posterizing AA or AAA ball. 18-19 is still young enough to rip through some of the lower leagues, right?
   14. Xander Posted: July 06, 2007 at 03:49 PM (#2430991)
Question - I think it was Temple who mentioned Anthony Alvarez, a 17-year-old who made the GCL roster, skipping the VSL. There's now a guy on the GCL team named Jose Alvarez, who's 18, who was born in Venezeula and who seems to have the same physical characteristics as Anthony. Is this the same guy, but with new documentation? Either way, he's still quite young, and he's been pretty good, 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 4 K.
Different player. Anthony Alvarado hasn't pitched yet. He has an injury which the Sox aren't considering serious; but they're trying to be cautious with.
   15. JB H Posted: July 06, 2007 at 05:18 PM (#2431119)

Who is Oscar Tejeda?


He signed for 4-500k last summer. I got the impression from BA/ESPN that he was just as good as the guys that signed for 1 million. Besides that and what he's done in the GCL, I don't think anybody knows anything.
   16. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 06, 2007 at 07:41 PM (#2431281)
Different player. Anthony Alvarado hasn't pitched yet. He has an injury which the Sox aren't considering serious; but they're trying to be cautious with.
Oops! thanks.
   17. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 08, 2007 at 01:21 PM (#2433480)
Reports on SoSH that Buchholz will be called up to Pawtucket after the Futures Game.
   18. Chip Posted: July 08, 2007 at 09:53 PM (#2434025)
Gave up an oppo HR to the second batter he faced in the Futures. That ball was crushed.
   19. Chip Posted: July 08, 2007 at 09:57 PM (#2434031)
Make that first batter. Came back to get the next three, including two Ks.
   20. Darren Posted: July 08, 2007 at 10:30 PM (#2434062)
Where does the term "oppo" come from. It's so annoying I want to cry (or maybe I'm thinking of today's game).

Boo Buchholz. You are not making me think you're shut-down reliever material.
   21. Darren Posted: July 08, 2007 at 10:55 PM (#2434084)
Lowrie 3/6 today with 2 HRs. His stats are now 307/408/516 with a 49/50 BB/K ratio. Among position players, his stock has risen the most this season.
   22. RobertMachemer Posted: July 09, 2007 at 06:19 PM (#2434847)
Michael Bowden:

high-A (Lancaster): 46.0 IP, 46 SO, 35 H, 8 BB, 1 HR, 1.37 ERA
AA (Portland): 49.1 IP, 39 SO, 53 H, 23 BB, 4 HR, 5.11 ERA

So did the thin air in Lancaster help keep his pitches from moving out of the strike zone? The other numbers don't bother me as much -- if he's having trouble throwing strikes, he's probably going to have times where he'll try taking something off a pitch and end up allowing hits and home runs -- but that's a lot of walks in AA.

I can't imagine anyone has looked to see if he's changed something in his rhythm or whatever, but if they have, I'd be interested in hearing if anything has changed.
   23. JB H Posted: July 09, 2007 at 06:52 PM (#2434881)
theres no need to go looking for a post hoc explanation to explain away all the variance between two tiny samples.
   24. RobertMachemer Posted: July 09, 2007 at 07:15 PM (#2434908)
Fine. I totally agree. There's no need to look. So, that said, has anyone looked? Not out of need, but out of curiosity?

The fact that he has about three times as many walks in roughly the same length of time (and in a context that might even be easier for a pitcher -- better opposing hitters, but also easier park/league for pitchers) doesn't make you wonder if there might not be something going on besides the random variation of performance?
   25. JoeHova Posted: July 09, 2007 at 07:30 PM (#2434925)
he age-gates with high dollar signings have been with players who faked their age in the other direction, claiming to be 16 when they weren't yet. (Edgar Renteria


I never heard about this. Who signed him when he was too young? bbref has him being signed at a legal age by Florida.
   26. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 09, 2007 at 07:30 PM (#2434926)
I don't see much need to look for an explanation - Bowden's facing much better hitters. They lay off more pitches out of the zone, they make contact with more pitches in the zone. He needs to adjust, he hasn't. It's possible that it's random, of course, but if it isn't random, it's almost certainly the normal struggles that so many prospects face upon jumping to AA - qualitative differences in opponents require qualitatively different strategies.

I would be very interested in exactly what the specifics of Bowden's adjustments are, and I'm sure there are people in the Sox org discussing it. But I think that locating the issue - if one exists - in the normal adjustment struggles on moving between levels is pretty much a certainty.

On Buchholz, I was pretty impressed. The pitch Votto hit wasn't bad - 93 mph at the knees, just caught a bit too much of the plate and Votto put a really good swing on it, and Buchholz dominated the next three batters even though he only threw one good curve - he just switched to fastball-changeup, and three straight hitters looked lost against him. K on change, weak grounder on change, K on change (I think).
   27. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 09, 2007 at 07:32 PM (#2434930)
Who signed him when he was too young? bbref has him being signed at a legal age by Florida.
Florida did. If you look around in the BTF archives around the time of the Renteria signing, you can see the discussions - it was revealed in a long profile of Renteria a while back that Renteria is actually a year younger than his listed age. The revelations were so far after his signing that no one ever did anything about it.
   28. JoeHova Posted: July 09, 2007 at 08:05 PM (#2434957)
Florida did. If you look around in the BTF archives around the time of the Renteria signing, you can see the discussions - it was revealed in a long profile of Renteria a while back that Renteria is actually a year younger than his listed age.


So he's a year younger than his listed age? That's good news for the Braves.
   29. Darren Posted: July 10, 2007 at 01:52 AM (#2435256)
The newly promoted Justin Masterson goes 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 Ks in his AA debut. Must be happy to get away from Lancaster.
   30. Darren Posted: July 11, 2007 at 12:18 AM (#2436207)
Mistake on that line. It should be 0 Hits, and 2 BBs.
   31. chris p Posted: July 11, 2007 at 12:58 AM (#2436325)
bowden is still impressive ... he's very young still. however, i think masterson could be a very good reliever very quickly as well as a good starter down the road.
   32. Darren Posted: July 11, 2007 at 01:54 AM (#2436526)
Masterson survived at High A in part because of a good GO/AO ratio. What about him makes you think he could relieve soon?
   33. Darren Posted: July 13, 2007 at 03:06 AM (#2439674)
Ellsbury 0-5 tonight with 3 Ks. That blows.
   34. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 13, 2007 at 04:04 AM (#2439710)
Ryan Kalish, one of the 2006 late-round signability picks, had been plugging along well in Lowell, commanding the strike zone, playing center, and hitting singles, but he hadn't shown much of any power.

Tonight, he knocked a pair of homers, and he's now a 19-year-old CF hitting 330/430/480 in the worst hitter's league in baseball.
   35. chris p Posted: July 13, 2007 at 12:20 PM (#2439779)
darren, did you read the globe piece on the lancaster team? i don't think a go/ao ratio is necessarily the recipe for success there ... the desert air and high winds make for a rock solid infield, so ground balls go for hits, too.
   36. JB H Posted: July 13, 2007 at 08:22 PM (#2440189)
There's some reports that Almanzar got $1.5 million to sign, plus another $1.5 million over the next 6 months. So basically a $3 million signing bonus. I think that would make him the biggest Latin bonus baby ever but I'm not really sure. This probably means he is going to become the best player ever to come from Latin America.
   37. Darren Posted: July 14, 2007 at 05:53 PM (#2441048)
Another 0-5 for Ellsbury. This time only 1 K!

Bubba gets 3 hits and his first AA HR. Now at 307/357/462. If he could maintain that as a 24-year-old CF in AA, he'd be something resembling a prospect.
   38. 1k5v3L Posted: July 14, 2007 at 05:57 PM (#2441052)
darren, did you read the globe piece on the lancaster team? i don't think a go/ao ratio is necessarily the recipe for success there ... the desert air and high winds make for a rock solid infield, so ground balls go for hits, too.


Meh. the globe should ask kevin, he knows what leads to success at lancaster: daniel bard's sweet mechanics.
   39. Darren Posted: July 14, 2007 at 06:15 PM (#2441065)
Daniel Bard's been struggling but it's only because he doesn't get to face hitters like Callaspo, Stephen Drew, and Chris Young.
   40. 1k5v3L Posted: July 14, 2007 at 06:34 PM (#2441071)
So true.
   41. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 15, 2007 at 04:06 PM (#2441750)
i don't think a go/ao ratio is necessarily the recipe for success there ...


There is no particularly good recipe for pitching success at Lancaster.

-- MWE
   42. 1k5v3L Posted: July 15, 2007 at 05:06 PM (#2441771)


There is no particularly good recipe for pitching success at Lancaster.


I'm sure Theo has a plan.
   43. chris p Posted: July 15, 2007 at 09:03 PM (#2442154)
one thing lancaster is good for is overhyping mediocre hitting prospects, right, levski?
   44. 1k5v3L Posted: July 15, 2007 at 09:12 PM (#2442161)
yup. watch the red sox farm system swarm with awesome 24 year old centerfielders...
   45. villageidiom Posted: July 17, 2007 at 03:33 AM (#2443425)
Buchholz pitched tonight, but I want to focus on another minor-leaguer who pitched tonight: Kason Gabbard.

Oh, wait, did I call him minor-leaguer? 'Cause after posting a 131 ERA+ last year, he's got a 133 ERA+ through tonight's complete game. He's only pitched 55 MLB innings, so it's hard to say that we should project anything going forward.

Here's what he did in the minors to date (from Baseball Cube and MiLB.com):

Level  Year   IP     ERA    K/BB

Rookie 2001   14.1   5.65   17
/9

A      2002   38.0   1.89   31
/7

A
+     2003    7.0  10.29    4/3
A
+     2004   43.1   2.70   30/16

AA     2004   53.0   6.28   35
/26
AA     2005  132.2   4.61   96
/65
AA     2006   73.2   2.57   68
/25

AAA    2006   51.2   5.23   48
/26
AAA    2007   75.0   3.24   64
/25 


What I see is someone who has trouble at a new level initially, but adjusts to it just fine. Tonight he went against the Royals, so I wouldn't say it was a true test of his MLB pitching ability... But we don't get too many complete game shutouts from even our big-name pitchers these days. Otherwise, though, he's done about as well as I would have hoped for from a 20-something-round draft pick from the Delcarmen year.

I'd been thinking of Gabbard as decent trade bait for a while now, figuring that we could "sell high" on him based on his limited success. But I'm starting to wonder how high on the depth chart he is now. (Obviously pretty high if he's in the MLB rotation.) Looking at the MLB roster, Schilling and Timlin are likely gone next year, and who knows how long Wake will be there. I think the Piniero fascination will end this year as well. I'm thinking Lester needs more time to build strength, and Hansen won't be ready, either. For one of two or three open spots (Buchholz getting the other one), it would seem like Gabbard has earned a place in the discussion for next year, hasn't he?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Ray (RDP)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.2737 seconds
60 querie(s) executed