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   1. Darren Posted: July 11, 2006 at 03:18 AM (#2094958)
So no one has an opinion on David Murphy?
   2. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 11, 2006 at 03:32 AM (#2094976)
Nope.
   3. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 11, 2006 at 03:34 AM (#2094977)
Against RHP this year:
212 AB, 67 H, 29 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 23 BB, 0 HBP, 1 SF and 32 SO.
.316/.398/.538 with a 85% contact rate and a .356 BABIP.

I don't know enough about him to make a comment on his defense, but it seems to me that at the least he should develop into a nice platoon partner. He makes consistent contact, has good power and discipline, and I would guess a nice linedrive swing. If he can go the other way with the ball I think he'd be very good in Fenway, especially if the Sox want Pena to platoon next year.

Were the scouts predicting him to have this type of year before? Because his past seasons weren't impressive at all, but if he can keep this up for the rest of the year, and of course assuming scouts have liked him, then I think he's for real.
   4. Darren Posted: July 11, 2006 at 03:55 AM (#2094992)
Not sure about the Scouts, but Sickels had him as a C and #17 in the Sox system, and BA didn't put him in the top 10.
   5. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 11, 2006 at 04:09 AM (#2095007)
BA had him #12 last year. They said he has the ability to play CF and plus power potential as he adds strength. That sounds good, but it really should get him more than #12 in a shallow system, so I downgrade those reports a bit.

From what little I've seen of Murphy, and from what I've heard from people watching him, is that he tends to just look like more of an athlete than the other players on the field. His tools aren't that great, though, so it's kind of a weird thing. (BA said he has merely average speed, for instance.)

I tend to think there's probably 3-5 teams out there whose scouts have seen him on a good day and been very impressed, and the Sox will find a way to match up for a trade with one of those teams. But I don't really know. I'd like to see Murphy get a shot as a backup - with his left-handed bat and ability to handle CF, he doesn't need a ton more offense to have a major league career as a 4th OF. I'd be pretty surprised if he were an above-average regular, especially for the Sox, but who knows.
   6. Xander Posted: July 11, 2006 at 04:26 AM (#2095014)
I wouldn't mind seeing Murphy get a shot at platooning with WMP next year in right. I think he can settle in as a .870 OPS guy vs. RHP, which is all you need.

W/R/T what MCoA said about his appearance, he has that "jeans selling" look. Long, stringy, toned frame with a high waist, etc. But I don't think any of his tools are plus. He can be plugged in at CF, but probably doesn't have the ability to stick there long term. But yes, Murphy can be a useful major leaguer. Which is a long cry from what people thought about him in the beginning of last year. He might end up being better than Murton though. Which is interesting.
   7. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 11, 2006 at 04:33 AM (#2095020)
I think he can settle in as a .870 OPS guy vs. RHP, which is all you need.
870 OPS v. RHP next year, at age 25? He'd be even with Nixon at that age, then. I'd be shocked if Murphy could do that next year.

I think maybe Murphy could pull off a season like that at age 28. If he could do it next year, he might be a future all-star.
   8. Xander Posted: July 11, 2006 at 04:44 AM (#2095027)
I apologize. When I said settle in, I meant over the course of the peak of his career.
   9. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 11, 2006 at 04:47 AM (#2095029)
Oh, that's different. I think that's probably a bit more optimistic than I'd be - 870 OPS v. RHP makes for an above average MLB regular, and I don't think that's Murphy's future - but yeah.
   10. 1k5v3L Posted: July 12, 2006 at 12:22 AM (#2095875)
Everything I wanted to know about Murphy, I learned from Darren.

Maybe Theo would let the Dbacks to trade him Upton and Young for Murphy. And Theo would be cutting his own throat.

[I'd have included Drew as well, but the Sox don't need a shortstop, seeing how Pedroia is on his way to the HOF.]
   11. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 12, 2006 at 02:06 PM (#2096617)
According to the dudes at SoSH, Jacoby Ellsbury has been promoted to Portland over the break. That's always good news.

He hit 300/380/415 in Wilmington, which is a very impressive line given the terrible hitting conditions there. It'll be interesting to see what, if any power Ellsbury can add as he moves up the ladder.
   12. Norcan Posted: July 12, 2006 at 04:41 PM (#2096797)
In 2005, the D-backs sure did well taking Upton instead of Maybin. Both of course are HOFs-to-be but just to nitpick, Upton looks like a fifth-balloter while Maybin a first-balloter.
   13. Norcan Posted: July 12, 2006 at 04:46 PM (#2096806)
I don't think Ellsbury's stats can just be upgraded because of Wilmington. He actually hit better there than on the road as of July 9th:

Home: 314/403/451
Away: 294/368/397
   14. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 12, 2006 at 07:02 PM (#2096952)
According to the dudes at SoSH, Jacoby Ellsbury has been promoted to Portland over the break.


Yep. Tommy Hottovy also went to Pawtucket, although I think that was just a paper move to clear space for Jason Johnson at Wilmington.

-- MWE
   15. Kyle S Posted: July 12, 2006 at 07:16 PM (#2096967)
At this point, it sure looks like that Pedroia "yam what he yam", as Popeye might say (i.e. David Eckstein with a few more walks and an outside chance at more pop). Anyone feel like googling for the thread where kevin said he was better than David Wright? That comparison looks slightly hasty these days :)

btw, i'm really happy with this firefox search plugin i wrote for FirstInning.com. Minor league stats instantaneously, can't beat that! if anyone wants it, send me an email and I'll send it to you along with some instructions for installing it.
   16. MM1f Posted: July 12, 2006 at 07:49 PM (#2096990)
"In 2005, the D-backs sure did well taking Upton instead of Maybin. Both of course are HOFs-to-be but just to nitpick, Upton looks like a fifth-balloter while Maybin a first-balloter."

Are you really judging two uberly talented 18 year olds based on 200 low-A ball at bats?

See it always baffles me when people use stats to make their argument but then don't actually bother to find out what those stats really mean and how significant they are. So really you aren't analyizing anything at all.
And if you are going to look at them soley on their stat lines its worth looking at how much higher Maybins K-rate is.

Really its much, much to early to be trying to sort out which is better since the difference is so close, the scouting reports are both glowing and the statistics mean so little (and neither has a clear advantage when you really look into it) but if youre going to try at least do more than...oh one has a higher OPS...
   17. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 13, 2006 at 12:19 AM (#2097184)
I think he's just screwing with levski, nothing more.
   18. 1k5v3L Posted: July 13, 2006 at 03:38 AM (#2097276)
What has been quite interesting about Upton so far is his befuddlement against left handed pitchers. Kevin Goldstein talks about it:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5286

Justin Upton, of, Low Class A South Bend (Diamondbacks)

The first overall pick in the 2005 draft, Upton's pro debut has been good, but it hasn't been great. He had his first career two home run game on Sunday, and is batting .271/.344/.415 overall, but a quick look at his platoon splits finds something downright strange. A right-handed batter, Upton is hitting righthanded pitchers very well, with a .304 average and a near .500 slugging percentage. However, against left-handers, he's batting .179 (12-for-67) with just two extra-base hits. If that's not weird enough, Upton has drawn 16 walks in those 67 at-bats (one per 4.2 at-bats) and just 11 against righties (one per 17.4). The amateur psychologist in me says it's a matter of confidence--the numbers look like Upton's patience against lefties is more a result of him not seeing a lot of pitches that he thinks he can hit--or is recognizing them too late. It bears investigation, but I'm not sure if it matters much: in a conversation with a team official this weekend, we both rated Upton as the top center field prospect in baseball.


Imho, the Dbacks currently have two of the top 3 CF prospects in the game right now, depending on how one would rank Chris Young and Lastings Milledge...

When it comes to evaluating talent, Mike Rizzo is one of the best directors in the game. And he was dead set on Justin Upton. The guy will be a superstar. And there's no maybe/maybinot about it.
   19. 1k5v3L Posted: July 13, 2006 at 03:38 AM (#2097277)
Btw, I think Ellsbury is the real deal. Unlike Murphy.
   20. Norcan Posted: July 13, 2006 at 04:14 AM (#2097301)
What's kind of odd is that both Young and Upton have the same severe reverse split.

Young: 175/297/286 (68 AB)
Upton: 176/333/206 (63 AB)

With both being centerfielders and similar athletically and with the same tilted splits, it's possible that they are the same player in different plots of the space-time line. Upton still has ample time to figure lefties out and his contact rate looks better than Young's though Young has improved this year but what if he settles into the same 270/360ish/510 line, with superb defensive skills and speed on the basepaths. Still a fine-fine player but not necessarily a superstar.
   21. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: July 13, 2006 at 04:56 AM (#2097315)
what if he settles into the same 270/360ish/510 line, with superb defensive skills and speed on the basepaths. Still a fine-fine player but not necessarily a superstar.

Nothing wrong with a slightly better hitting Mike Cameron. You'd win a lot of games with a guy like that.
   22. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: July 14, 2006 at 04:38 AM (#2098540)
Pedroia's up to 294/375/408 after a terrible start. More BB than strikeouts, but only 2 HR. Better, but not exactly setting the world on fire.
   23. Darren Posted: July 16, 2006 at 02:42 AM (#2100477)
Pedroia went 4-4 with 2 2b and a walk tonight. He's at .307/.385/.432. Trade Loretta for Mark Prior, the Cubs love secondbasemen!
   24. 1k5v3L Posted: July 16, 2006 at 02:47 AM (#2100483)
Can Loretta also set up for Dempster? Is he can, you guys might end up with Carlos Zambrano.
   25. Darren Posted: July 16, 2006 at 02:57 AM (#2100491)
No, you trade the middle relievers to the Phillies. That's how you get Abreu for Tavarez.
   26. Darren Posted: July 16, 2006 at 03:00 AM (#2100494)
I think I got Pedroia's OBP wrong. It doesn't count his ~5 HBP and his ~3 SF. So maybe he's around .390?

Ellsbury also had 4 hits tonight at Portland.
   27. Xander Posted: July 16, 2006 at 03:11 AM (#2100506)
Bowden had a nice little game too.

5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB

This is courtesy of Amfox at SoSH for Pedroia:

1st 29 games (through 5/20): 25/107, 5-2B, HR (33TB), 14/16 K/BB, SF (41/124 OBP) - .234/.331/.308/.639

Last 47 games (5/21-7/15): 65/187, 19-2B, 2-3B, 2HR (94TB), 9/19 K/BB, 4HBP (88/210 OBP) - .348/.419/.503/.922

Total................ 90/294, 24-2B, 2-3B, 3HR (127TB), 23/35 K/BB, 4HBP, SF (129/334 OBP) - .306/.386/.432/.818

Only 9 K's in his last 187 AB's is very impressive. He should be our starting 2B for next year and for at least the next 5 years.
   28. 1k5v3L Posted: July 16, 2006 at 03:45 AM (#2100515)
One day, Dustin Pedroia will have a chance to be as good as Alberto Callaspo. Minus the strong arm.
   29. Xander Posted: July 16, 2006 at 04:17 AM (#2100527)
Haha
   30. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 16, 2006 at 04:59 AM (#2100539)
The key with Petunia has always been to determine when his spring training ended. Amfox has provided the data to prove conclusively that Petunia's real season only began on May 21st.

Full season MLE: 280/350/380
Awesomely cherry-picked MLE: 320/380/440

Mark Loretta in MLB: 300/355/380

That contact rate is what keeps me convinced, all cherrypicking aside, that Pedroia will be an above-average major league regular for years.
   31. Darren Posted: July 16, 2006 at 12:14 PM (#2100589)
Yeah, I'm not sure what Amfox's reasoning is for those splits, but he does always seem to pick the most advantageous day. I'd like to see his splits if you take off about the 1st month, which I'd guess would be something like .310/.400/.480.

MCoA, are those MLEs from that spreadsheet that you gave to me some time ago? If so, that full season MLE seems low. IIRC, a couple times when I plugged in his stats this year, his MLE came out almost identical to his AAA numbers, because of his incredibly low K rate/high BB rate.
   32. Darren Posted: July 16, 2006 at 12:19 PM (#2100590)
Meanwhile, Ellsbury is at .467 .529 .533 in AA. That's got to be a pretty good MLE.
   33. Darren Posted: July 16, 2006 at 12:23 PM (#2100592)
Both of the Papelbon twins are doing quite nicely in short season ball.

Jeremy in Boise: 17 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 19 K!
Josh in Lowell: 9.1 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11K.

Wouldn't have liked to have grabbed Jeremy, but oh well.
   34. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 16, 2006 at 12:44 PM (#2100598)
MCoA, are those MLEs from that spreadsheet that you gave to me some time ago? If so, that full season MLE seems low. IIRC, a couple times when I plugged in his stats this year, his MLE came out almost identical to his AAA numbers, because of his incredibly low K rate/high BB rate.
Well, two things. First is, I was running the MLEs wrong, and those were the AA conversions.

Second is, that doesn't appear to make any particular difference. I have Petunia's MLE at 280/350/390, and his no longer in spring training MLE at 320/380/455. For a guy like Pedroia, who strikes out so little and hits few home runs, the difference between AA and AAA won't be quite so large.
   35. 1k5v3L Posted: July 16, 2006 at 01:30 PM (#2100607)
Why haha, TempleUSox? The two are the same age, showing comparable hitting ability, except that Callaspo has better plate discipline, stronger arm, and can easily play SS or 3B as well, while Petunia will be limited to 2b.
   36. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 16, 2006 at 01:38 PM (#2100610)
Why haha, TempleUSox? The two are the same age, showing comparable hitting ability, except that Callaspo has better plate discipline, stronger arm, and can easily play SS or 3B as well, while Petunia will be limited to 2b.
Callaspo's had a nice 350 AB this year, even accounting for home park. But he never did anything like this before, and BA ranked him #8 in the Angels system and suggested he'd probably be a utility player in the majors. Whether the two show comparable hitting ability is precisely what's up for debate, and I'd be a lot more impressed with Callaspo if he had ever performed this well in a park that wasn't the Coors Field of the PCL.
   37. 1k5v3L Posted: July 16, 2006 at 01:53 PM (#2100614)
Isn't #8 in the Angels system the same as #3 in the Red Sox system? The "utility" label by BA probably had more to do with having Wood, Kendrick and Aybar in the same system, fighting for the same spots.

And yes, I'm sure it's all the PCL/Tucson's fault. That's why all of AZ's prospects are overrated. If Callaspo were in the INT league, his BB/K ratio would've been absolutely terrible. And he'd have had a weak arm.
   38. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 16, 2006 at 02:09 PM (#2100621)
A lot of what you say above is arguably correct, but you ignored the main point.

Callaspo's MLE last year, according to BP, was about 260/300/360. Pedroia's was 275/355/430. The reason people like Pedroia better is that he has a much more significant history of good hitting.
   39. 1k5v3L Posted: July 16, 2006 at 02:21 PM (#2100629)
MCA, my posts were half tongue in cheek. Pedroia arguably is a better hitter, but Callaspo has always been tough to strike out, and he's now starting to build on his excellent plate discipline. Once you account for defense and arm strength, I'm not sure Callaspo is the inferior prospect.

Regardless, I'm looking forward to many years of Petunia at 2b in BOS and Callaspo at 2B in AZ.
   40. Darren Posted: July 16, 2006 at 09:43 PM (#2101239)
MCA, my posts were half tongue in cheek.

Whenever I say or write something that's somewhat tongue in cheek, and then someone laughs, I always immediately ask them why they laughed. It's the most sensible thing to do, of course.

Arguing with levski about anything is pointless. Any time you show him to be obviously wrong, he says he was joking and tells you to calm down and get a sense of humor. Arguing with him about Red Sox prospects is even less productive.
   41. Darren Posted: July 17, 2006 at 02:24 AM (#2101844)
Ho hum. Pedroia 3-5 today. Hitting .311 now, probably hitting .360 since the big phony-baloney-magical-happy-fun-ball endpoint.

Hey MC, thanks for the bogus spreadsheet. :)
   42. 1k5v3L Posted: July 17, 2006 at 02:27 AM (#2101845)
Hmmm, someone has shown me that I'm obviously wrong? How so, Darren? The "half tongue in cheek" comment was #28; the other posts were serious. Then again, arguing with Darren about anything is pointless; arguing with him about Red Sox prospects is even less productive.
   43. Norcan Posted: July 21, 2006 at 04:12 AM (#2106186)
Callaspo reminds me of this year's version of Mark Loretta with better defense, actually much better defense since Callaspo's supposed to be a good shortstop as well.



Isn't #8 in the Angels system the same as #3 in the Red Sox system?


No, not in the same grouping with Papelbon, Lester, Hanley, Anibal and Hansen.

Speaking of Anibal, he looks like he's lost a lot of weight since his start against the Yankees and appearance against the Red Sox. His chubbiness was the thing that stuck out to me, along with his fastball mostly reaching 90-91 instead of the low to mid-nineties it was reported to. Since he's gotten fitter looking, his fastball has crept up to the 94 mph range and he's allowed only 3 hits in his last 14 innings.
   44. 1k5v3L Posted: July 21, 2006 at 04:17 AM (#2106189)
That's a nice list of prospects, Norcan. Incidentally, there is a very good chance that all 5 of them will have lost their rookie status by the end of this year...

Assuming he's not called up soon, my guess is Pedroia will duke it out with Ellsbury for the title of best prospect in the Red Sox system going into next season...

Kevin Goldstein ranked Callaspo as the best defensive 2Bman in the minors...

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