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1. Darren212 AB, 67 H, 29 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 23 BB, 0 HBP, 1 SF and 32 SO.
.316/.398/.538 with a 85% contact rate and a .356 BABIP.
I don't know enough about him to make a comment on his defense, but it seems to me that at the least he should develop into a nice platoon partner. He makes consistent contact, has good power and discipline, and I would guess a nice linedrive swing. If he can go the other way with the ball I think he'd be very good in Fenway, especially if the Sox want Pena to platoon next year.
Were the scouts predicting him to have this type of year before? Because his past seasons weren't impressive at all, but if he can keep this up for the rest of the year, and of course assuming scouts have liked him, then I think he's for real.
From what little I've seen of Murphy, and from what I've heard from people watching him, is that he tends to just look like more of an athlete than the other players on the field. His tools aren't that great, though, so it's kind of a weird thing. (BA said he has merely average speed, for instance.)
I tend to think there's probably 3-5 teams out there whose scouts have seen him on a good day and been very impressed, and the Sox will find a way to match up for a trade with one of those teams. But I don't really know. I'd like to see Murphy get a shot as a backup - with his left-handed bat and ability to handle CF, he doesn't need a ton more offense to have a major league career as a 4th OF. I'd be pretty surprised if he were an above-average regular, especially for the Sox, but who knows.
W/R/T what MCoA said about his appearance, he has that "jeans selling" look. Long, stringy, toned frame with a high waist, etc. But I don't think any of his tools are plus. He can be plugged in at CF, but probably doesn't have the ability to stick there long term. But yes, Murphy can be a useful major leaguer. Which is a long cry from what people thought about him in the beginning of last year. He might end up being better than Murton though. Which is interesting.
I think maybe Murphy could pull off a season like that at age 28. If he could do it next year, he might be a future all-star.
Maybe Theo would let the Dbacks to trade him Upton and Young for Murphy. And Theo would be cutting his own throat.
[I'd have included Drew as well, but the Sox don't need a shortstop, seeing how Pedroia is on his way to the HOF.]
He hit 300/380/415 in Wilmington, which is a very impressive line given the terrible hitting conditions there. It'll be interesting to see what, if any power Ellsbury can add as he moves up the ladder.
Home: 314/403/451
Away: 294/368/397
Yep. Tommy Hottovy also went to Pawtucket, although I think that was just a paper move to clear space for Jason Johnson at Wilmington.
-- MWE
btw, i'm really happy with this firefox search plugin i wrote for FirstInning.com. Minor league stats instantaneously, can't beat that! if anyone wants it, send me an email and I'll send it to you along with some instructions for installing it.
Are you really judging two uberly talented 18 year olds based on 200 low-A ball at bats?
See it always baffles me when people use stats to make their argument but then don't actually bother to find out what those stats really mean and how significant they are. So really you aren't analyizing anything at all.
And if you are going to look at them soley on their stat lines its worth looking at how much higher Maybins K-rate is.
Really its much, much to early to be trying to sort out which is better since the difference is so close, the scouting reports are both glowing and the statistics mean so little (and neither has a clear advantage when you really look into it) but if youre going to try at least do more than...oh one has a higher OPS...
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5286
Justin Upton, of, Low Class A South Bend (Diamondbacks)
The first overall pick in the 2005 draft, Upton's pro debut has been good, but it hasn't been great. He had his first career two home run game on Sunday, and is batting .271/.344/.415 overall, but a quick look at his platoon splits finds something downright strange. A right-handed batter, Upton is hitting righthanded pitchers very well, with a .304 average and a near .500 slugging percentage. However, against left-handers, he's batting .179 (12-for-67) with just two extra-base hits. If that's not weird enough, Upton has drawn 16 walks in those 67 at-bats (one per 4.2 at-bats) and just 11 against righties (one per 17.4). The amateur psychologist in me says it's a matter of confidence--the numbers look like Upton's patience against lefties is more a result of him not seeing a lot of pitches that he thinks he can hit--or is recognizing them too late. It bears investigation, but I'm not sure if it matters much: in a conversation with a team official this weekend, we both rated Upton as the top center field prospect in baseball.
Imho, the Dbacks currently have two of the top 3 CF prospects in the game right now, depending on how one would rank Chris Young and Lastings Milledge...
When it comes to evaluating talent, Mike Rizzo is one of the best directors in the game. And he was dead set on Justin Upton. The guy will be a superstar. And there's no maybe/maybinot about it.
Young: 175/297/286 (68 AB)
Upton: 176/333/206 (63 AB)
With both being centerfielders and similar athletically and with the same tilted splits, it's possible that they are the same player in different plots of the space-time line. Upton still has ample time to figure lefties out and his contact rate looks better than Young's though Young has improved this year but what if he settles into the same 270/360ish/510 line, with superb defensive skills and speed on the basepaths. Still a fine-fine player but not necessarily a superstar.
Nothing wrong with a slightly better hitting Mike Cameron. You'd win a lot of games with a guy like that.
Ellsbury also had 4 hits tonight at Portland.
5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB
This is courtesy of Amfox at SoSH for Pedroia:
Only 9 K's in his last 187 AB's is very impressive. He should be our starting 2B for next year and for at least the next 5 years.
Full season MLE: 280/350/380
Awesomely cherry-picked MLE: 320/380/440
Mark Loretta in MLB: 300/355/380
That contact rate is what keeps me convinced, all cherrypicking aside, that Pedroia will be an above-average major league regular for years.
MCoA, are those MLEs from that spreadsheet that you gave to me some time ago? If so, that full season MLE seems low. IIRC, a couple times when I plugged in his stats this year, his MLE came out almost identical to his AAA numbers, because of his incredibly low K rate/high BB rate.
Jeremy in Boise: 17 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 19 K!
Josh in Lowell: 9.1 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11K.
Wouldn't have liked to have grabbed Jeremy, but oh well.
Second is, that doesn't appear to make any particular difference. I have Petunia's MLE at 280/350/390, and his no longer in spring training MLE at 320/380/455. For a guy like Pedroia, who strikes out so little and hits few home runs, the difference between AA and AAA won't be quite so large.
And yes, I'm sure it's all the PCL/Tucson's fault. That's why all of AZ's prospects are overrated. If Callaspo were in the INT league, his BB/K ratio would've been absolutely terrible. And he'd have had a weak arm.
Callaspo's MLE last year, according to BP, was about 260/300/360. Pedroia's was 275/355/430. The reason people like Pedroia better is that he has a much more significant history of good hitting.
Regardless, I'm looking forward to many years of Petunia at 2b in BOS and Callaspo at 2B in AZ.
Whenever I say or write something that's somewhat tongue in cheek, and then someone laughs, I always immediately ask them why they laughed. It's the most sensible thing to do, of course.
Arguing with levski about anything is pointless. Any time you show him to be obviously wrong, he says he was joking and tells you to calm down and get a sense of humor. Arguing with him about Red Sox prospects is even less productive.
Hey MC, thanks for the bogus spreadsheet. :)
No, not in the same grouping with Papelbon, Lester, Hanley, Anibal and Hansen.
Speaking of Anibal, he looks like he's lost a lot of weight since his start against the Yankees and appearance against the Red Sox. His chubbiness was the thing that stuck out to me, along with his fastball mostly reaching 90-91 instead of the low to mid-nineties it was reported to. Since he's gotten fitter looking, his fastball has crept up to the 94 mph range and he's allowed only 3 hits in his last 14 innings.
Assuming he's not called up soon, my guess is Pedroia will duke it out with Ellsbury for the title of best prospect in the Red Sox system going into next season...
Kevin Goldstein ranked Callaspo as the best defensive 2Bman in the minors...
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