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   1. Darren Posted: April 25, 2007 at 02:19 AM (#2344981)
Buchholz's totals for the year: 15.1 IP, 11 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 18 K, 2.35 ERA.

So far, he and Bowden both look good.
   2. Xander Posted: April 25, 2007 at 02:31 AM (#2345003)
Left after the 4th inning?

5 lines of observations?

Gotta bring it a little harder than that Darren.

I was expecting a pitch-by-pitch account.
   3. Xander Posted: April 25, 2007 at 02:51 AM (#2345040)
From another report at the game tonight:
All in all, the story of the game was easily Buchholz. He was terrific, pitched around the errors well, dominated the strike zone all night, and showed an impressive curveball that had the fans around me whistling and the NB players shaking their heads as they walked back to the dugout. Hopefully hes still in AA when the dogs come back to NB, id like to watch him again, what a treat!

From poster Vendrell at SoxProspects.com.
   4. Darren Posted: April 25, 2007 at 11:03 PM (#2345788)
Well, whooppitty do! Vendrell must of been sitting in a different section from me because I don't recall any whistling. I also don't recall any headshaking either. Maybe our friend Vendrell has a flair for the dramatic, or maybe I was a bit distracted by my other duties. I'm a good father, so sue me!

Temple, what's your opinion of the Haigwood deal?
   5. Darren Posted: April 26, 2007 at 02:23 AM (#2346029)
In AAA, it's hard to believe, but it looks like Hansack may not actually be the greatest pitcher in history. Since his 'so amazing that they must prove he's actually good' 2 starts in which he K'ed 20 guys, he's been downright blah. 5.1 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, then 6.1 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 3 K. I'm shocked, shocked I tell you, that he may not actually be better than Phillip Hughes.

There are a couple players doing interesting things in AAA though. Brandon Moss 306/377/565 with a respectable 7/16 BB/K ratio. This is probably one of his notorious hot streaks though. Pauley is also doing well through his first 3 starts: 18 IP, 12 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 16 K, 1.00 ERA. He's probably better than Koufax right now, and he's still developing.
   6. Xander Posted: April 26, 2007 at 03:54 AM (#2346109)
Maybe our friend Vendrell has a flair for the dramatic, or maybe I was a bit distracted by my other duties.
I think it's the latter.
   7. Xander Posted: April 26, 2007 at 03:58 AM (#2346116)
Mike Rozier- 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 5/2 K/BB (in Lancaster)
   8. Darren Posted: April 27, 2007 at 02:30 AM (#2346970)
Through 3 IP tonight, Bowden's got 4 K, 1 BB, 1 H, 0 R. Wagner's up to .370, which includes good hitting at home and on the road.
   9. Don Guillote (The Cheat) Posted: April 27, 2007 at 02:50 AM (#2346983)
Haigwood is your typical minor league pitcher with a good curveball. Lots of strikeouts against guys who can't hit breaking balls at the lower level.

His fastball isn't even in the same ballpark as Gonzalez, who tops out at 93-94 as a 5'10" lefty. Not to mention he's two years older. The age alone is enough to explain the difference in grade. Add in the 4-5MHP difference between fastballs, and they're hardly in the same category.

Gonzalez currently leads the Southern League in strikeouts with 30 in 21.1 innings to go along with 8 walks and a 1.69ERA.
   10. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 27, 2007 at 12:40 PM (#2347092)
Yup, another great outing by Bowden. Gave up one string of hits in the fourth, but still ended up 6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 9 K, 0 HR. I think we need to expect significant regression from Bowden - guys who are now top major leaguers pitched in Lancaster, and they didn't do nearly this well. 2.33 ERA with a K per inning just isn't sustainable in that environment.
   11. Darren Posted: April 27, 2007 at 09:34 PM (#2347544)
That's an odd way to look at his great performance so far. Sure, he's likely not really so good that he's going to keep posting a 2.33 ERA in Coors Jr. But absent any scouting reports, my main takeaway from this is to conclude that Bowden may be something special. His performance, which has included 4 home games BTW, is more impressive to me than 2 fluky games by the Lobsterman.

Bard, on the other hand, might want to Greenville a try.
   12. Darren Posted: April 28, 2007 at 01:03 PM (#2348229)
Lester 5 IP, 6 K, 0 R, 0 BB. Say goodbye to Kyle Snyder and say hello to long reliever Julian Tavarez.
   13. Darren Posted: April 28, 2007 at 01:06 PM (#2348234)
Cheat,

That's good info and it does show that Gio Gonzalez is certainly looking a lot better than Haigwood right now. I don't mean to imply that these guys are similar right now, because if they were, there's no way the Red Sox get Haigwood for nothing.

I was only trying to show that a year ago, Haigwood was considered a damn fine pitching prospect, and then he went out and put up a season very similar to two guys who were considered damn fine pitching prospects. Those two guys kept their status somewhat and Haigwood dropped off the map.
   14. PJ Martinez Posted: April 28, 2007 at 01:15 PM (#2348238)
From the Globe:

"Portland center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury continued his spectacular start last night, going 4 for 4 -- all singles -- and reaching base when he was hit by a pitch. Ellsbury, who also stole his sixth base, is batting .468 for the Double A Sea Dogs."
   15. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 28, 2007 at 01:18 PM (#2348239)
According to Amalie Benjamin on the extra bases blog, Lester threw 84 pitches through five. He's getting very close to a major league pitch count already. Lester's recovery has been pretty much shocking, and it seems like he very well may join the rotation sometime in May, if they choose to push him. Wow.
   16. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 28, 2007 at 01:24 PM (#2348246)
For entertainment purposes only...

Jacoby Ellsbury, MLE: 418/460/592
   17. JB H Posted: April 28, 2007 at 01:35 PM (#2348249)
Well, I hope they don't push him. His major league ERA last season could very easily have been about five and a half, so I think pushing him to the rotation this year as soon as possible is just setting him up to fail.

Ellsbury's been insane this year, although it would be nice if he showed a skill besides being good at having an unsustainably high BABIP. He probably doesn't need very many offensive skills to be a good major leaguer with his defense though.

Daniel Bard had another horrible start last night. Will he have a start with more strikeouts than walks this year?

Oops, I don't mean to be so negative. The top four prospects in this system are awesome, honest.
   18. Darren Posted: April 28, 2007 at 01:35 PM (#2348250)
Holy blurging Schnidt! That's a nice MLE. He's really taken off this year, unlike some of his teammates at AA.

Lester's recovery has been pretty much shocking, and it seems like he very well may join the rotation sometime in May, if they choose to push him. Wow.


Woah, woah, woah. Let's not get crazy here. It's not like he's going to blow past Hansack on the depth chart.
   19. Darren Posted: April 28, 2007 at 01:38 PM (#2348251)
Ellsbury's been insane this year, although it would be nice if he showed a skill besides being good at having an unsustainably high BABIP.


He's shown patience, he's got good speed, and he makes a lot of contact too. Those are skills and getting hits on BIP is a skill as well.
   20. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 28, 2007 at 01:39 PM (#2348252)
Ellsbury's been insane this year, although it would be nice if he showed a skill besides being good at having an unsustainably high BABIP.
Like plus defense at an up-the-middle position, or good contact skills, or plus baserunning, or doubles power?
   21. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 28, 2007 at 01:40 PM (#2348254)
Darren: faster
Me: snarkier

you make the call!
   22. JB H Posted: April 28, 2007 at 01:53 PM (#2348260)
Well he's not patient. And he has 29 doubles in 643 minor league at bats against pretty mediocre competition. I like Ellsbury, but I see him as a better Endy Chavez, not Johnny Damon with faster speed or anything.
   23. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 28, 2007 at 02:08 PM (#2348264)
29 doubles and 15 triples. Seems they should be counted together. And Ellsbury doesn't draw a ton of walks, but he draws some, and he doesn't strike out. And his power is up this season.

I guess that by the numbers, any minor leaguer other than a Delmon Young should be compared to marginal major leaguers, but Ellsbury seems clearly to have the upside of a better Johnny Damon. Do you compare any prospects outside BA's top 5 to Johnny Damon, and thus your claim is really about how we should talk about prospects in general, or are you claiming that Jacoby Ellsbury in particular should be downgraded more than other prospects?
   24. PJ Martinez Posted: April 28, 2007 at 02:19 PM (#2348269)
Well, Damon was in the majors by the time he was Ellsbury's age. He made the jump straight from AA, though, so Ellsbury may only be a year behind him, I guess. At age 21, Damon put up .343/.434/.534 in 111 games at AA before getting called up. That doesn't sound out of the question for Jacoby this year.

Should that extra year of age make any real difference? Are there park factors I'm not considering?

Damon did slug a bit better in A+ than Ellsbury.
   25. JB H Posted: April 28, 2007 at 02:45 PM (#2348278)
I think it's fine to compare Hanley Ramirez (or Tony Blanco..) to absurd names like Ken Griffey Jr when he's in the GCL and nobody has too much of an idea of who he really is. But Ellsbury is a 23 year old in AA without a whole lot of mystery to him.
   26. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 28, 2007 at 02:58 PM (#2348280)
Ellsbury's MLE is 260 AB in AA is 315/374/429. Doesn't the very real possibility that he's already a legit .300 hitter carry some air of mystery? To me, there's quite a lot. I think you're understating both the value of batting average and the variance in batting average among major and minor league players.
   27. Raskolnikov Posted: April 28, 2007 at 03:12 PM (#2348287)
Well he's not patient. And he has 29 doubles in 643 minor league at bats against pretty mediocre competition. I like Ellsbury, but I see him as a better Endy Chavez, not Johnny Damon with faster speed or anything.

That's the classic adage of focusing on what a prospect can't do versus what what he can do. There's a wide gulf between a young Johnny Damon and Endy Chavez. Ellsbury at this stage is in between the two.


Johnny Damon was a top prospect when he came out of the minors. If you're asking for that standard out of all your OF prospects, then you're going to be waiting a long time.

Ellsbury is a great fit for what the Red Sox need and will need in the short term. He'll be an excellent defensive OFer who can get on base at a strong rate and brings a lot of speed. Personally, I'd promote Ellsbury in mid-May or early June barring no new developments.
   28. tfbg9 Posted: April 28, 2007 at 03:42 PM (#2348300)
From one of the Local Papers...Lester's latest-

Through five scoreless innings with the Pawtucket Red Sox [team stats], Lester threw 84 pitches (56 for strikes), giving up three hits, no walks and striking out six against Cleveland’s Triple-A Buffalo Bisons.

Lester did not allow a runner past second base, with Hector Luna the only Bison advancing that far, reaching on a single to center, then stealing second.

*Whoo-hoo!*
   29. JB H Posted: April 29, 2007 at 09:03 PM (#2349562)
matt clement that MLE is obviously not a very good aproximation of his true talent. it needs to be regressed against his less than spectacular A-Ball numbers, his draft position and babip



That's the classic adage of focusing on what a prospect can't do versus what what he can do.


?

i think ellsbury will be a .285/.340/.390'ish hitter if he's a major leaguer next year. if he hits that and is one of the top half dozen baserunners and defensive outfielders in the world like i think he may be, then mgl will probably say he's a boarderline all-star caliber player. i dont think im particularly pessimistic about him or focusing on what he can't do.

if ellsbury is a low-mid 800's OPS hitter than he's probably one of the top 25 players in the world
   30. CraigK Posted: April 29, 2007 at 09:07 PM (#2349563)
This shows how small my high school was:

Daniel Haigwood was the closest thing to a major leaguer my HS baseball team ever faced.
   31. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 29, 2007 at 09:16 PM (#2349574)
I wonder how long before they send Ellsbury to Pawtucket.
   32. Darren Posted: April 29, 2007 at 09:21 PM (#2349578)
Crowded OF in AAA, but it's not as if it's full of players who are anything special. Maybe if he gets to AA he and Pedroia will make a nice 1-2 punch.
   33. Xander Posted: May 02, 2007 at 05:09 AM (#2351947)
Tonight:

Buchholz- 7 IP, H, 0 ER, 9/0 K/BB
Bowden- 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 9/0 K/BB

YTD:

Buchholz- 22.1 IP, 12 H, 27/3 K/BB
Bowden- 33 IP, 28 H, 37/7 K/BB

Any questions?
   34. bibigon Posted: May 02, 2007 at 05:14 AM (#2351948)
Any questions?


Groundball/Flyball tendencies?
   35. Xander Posted: May 02, 2007 at 05:34 AM (#2351954)
Bowden- 4/3 GO/AO
Buchholz- 4/7 GO/AO

I'll wait for the updated stats on Minor League Splits, but in terms of GB/FB, Buchholz has a 2/1 GB/FB ratio and Bowden has a 1.8/1 ratio.

Other BABIP stuff (not updated through tonight):

Bowden:
GB%- 44%
LD%- 16%
FB%- 24%

Buchholz:
GB%- 50%
LD%- 8%
FB%- 25%

Obviously it's important to have the league averages, but I don't have them right now. So that's that.
   36. Xander Posted: May 02, 2007 at 06:51 AM (#2351972)
Buchholz last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 6 H, 0.52 ERA, 25/2 K/BB
   37. Darren Posted: May 02, 2007 at 10:04 PM (#2352582)
Those two are looking very good. Bowden's numbers are simply astounding considering his home park and that 4 of his 6 starts were there. I'd love to see him bumped to AA soon. Any chance of that?

Buchholz's 9/1 K/BB ratio makes me wonder if he would be ready to take Tavarez's spot in the very near future.
   38. Darren Posted: May 02, 2007 at 10:05 PM (#2352584)
You forgot to mention they've both allowed only 1 HR. That's good too.
   39. JB H Posted: May 03, 2007 at 02:41 AM (#2352982)
So far this minor league season the top three prospects all look like they're going to be very high on BA's top 100, and pretty much everyone else has been ####.

Lars Anderson is sinking like a stone. His OPS is just under 800 with a BABIP just under .400. Oh well, he's still a nice prospect even if he doesn't destroy A-Ball this year.

Brandon Moss might still have a major league career. He's now at .321/.421/.593, altho his strikeout rate is kinda high. Is his defense supposed to be any good? If everyone's healthy in a few months he might make Wily Mo expendable.
   40. Darren Posted: May 20, 2007 at 05:09 PM (#2371232)
Where are all the Hansack fans now?
   41. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 21, 2007 at 01:53 AM (#2372200)
Those were all typos. I was trying to say "Gabbard".
   42. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: May 21, 2007 at 03:13 AM (#2372472)
Daniel Haigwood was the closest thing to a major leaguer my HS baseball team ever faced.
No shame in that - he was a monster as a prep.
   43. villageidiom Posted: October 27, 2007 at 10:45 PM (#2595985)
...and just like that, Haigwood is gone. He was released to make room for waiver claim LHP Jay Marshall from the A's. Press release here.

Haigwood turned in a 5.74 ERA in 69 IP at Portland, easily his worst stint of his four-team (!) tour of AA. He really didn't progress much this year, with a HR rate that jumped up quite a bit.

Marshall, one year older, didn't have a much better season than Haigwood - but that was in the majors, a pretty big leap from high-A Winston-Salem, where he spent 2006. Any scouting reports? (I expect a quick response, what with nothing else of significance going on with the Red Sox organization these days.)
   44. Darren Posted: October 27, 2007 at 10:49 PM (#2595989)
Does designated mean he was released? Or does it just mean that he's exposed to waivers?
   45. Dan Posted: October 28, 2007 at 07:06 AM (#2596933)
Looks like we have our Javier Lopez replacement as side-arming LOOGY to be used in situations where an actually good pitcher mgiht be nice.
   46. villageidiom Posted: October 29, 2007 at 02:47 PM (#2598659)
Does designated mean he was released? Or does it just mean that he's exposed to waivers?

Actually, no. I misspoke. DFA means off the roster, and they have 10 days to do something with him: trade him, release him, or outright him if they can (a player can be outrighted only once). Most often it precedes a player being released, and that's the leap I made. In his case, he'd never been outrighted before, so that's what they did (according to soxprospects.com).

He is exposed to the Rule 5 draft, but I think that's low risk.

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