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   1. philly Posted: June 30, 2007 at 01:41 PM (#2423732)
The Lancaster guys seem to have an easy explanation. The team tied for the 1st half championship and the way the league settles tie breakers is that the winner of the next regular season game (or series or something) gets the playoff spot. That tiebreaker will be settled on July 4 (I think) and after that I'm sure we'll see some promotions.

I don't think a delay of a couple of weeks is a big deal, but if you do remember that not making their Wilmington affiliate happy doing little things liket this is one of the reasons that their stuck in Lancaster in the first place. Chalk this up to kindler and gentler affiliate relations and be a little patient.

Breslow is blocked by people the manager/FO have more faith in (Javy Lopez as loogy) or beleive have more upside (Delcarmen) or are better fits for the roster (Snyder and Pineiro as more longmen types, I guess). And no I didn't forget Timlin, I just don't want to talk about it.

I'm not sure about Buch. He does seem ready to move. Somebody mentioned recently that AAA pitching tends to be lousy in the second half because the big prospects (Hughes, Gollardo, Bailey) tend to get promoted to MLB and teams just generally don't give second half bumps to the top AA arms. If they want them in the majors they can just reach down and grab them from their and I guess the competition upgrade just isn't that big of a deal.
   2. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 30, 2007 at 01:44 PM (#2423734)
Craig Breslow: 40.2 IP, 30 H, 48 K, 10 BB, 3 HR, 1.55 ERA. Breslow has been pitching very well at AAA for a couple years and hasn’t embarrassed himself in the majors. What will it take for him to get another shot?

Craig Breslow should be in the Majors RIGHT NOW, and one of Timlin/Piniero DFAed. At least DL Piniero, he hurt his ankle.
   3. Mister High Standards Posted: June 30, 2007 at 01:48 PM (#2423737)
What is Breslows option situation?
   4. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 30, 2007 at 02:02 PM (#2423741)
Donnelly's rehab is progressing slowly, but the Globe reported that he's been throwing in the bullpen. If he's due back in a week or two, I can see the case for not making a move to Breslow right now - he'd just have to be optioned down when Donnelly returned. Delcarmen looks like he'll be staying around, though, so Donnelly's return will be a big decision point - do they DFA Timlin or Pineiro? I think the Sox are trying to put that off, hope one of the guys shows signs of life or gets a minor injury. It's only a week or two, so I think that sticking with the guys they had faith in during the offseason is defensible.
teams just generally don't give second half bumps to the top AA arms. If they want them in the majors they can just reach down and grab them from their and I guess the competition upgrade just isn't that big of a deal.
Well, the Sox did it with Papelbon in '05, so I wouldn't be shocked to see them do it with Buchholz in a few weeks. With a hard innings cap of 155, as Temple reported, Buchholz should be lined up for some relief work in Boston down the stretch, so Papelbon '05 seems like a good comp in terms of development.
   5. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 30, 2007 at 02:08 PM (#2423743)
What is Breslows option situation?
Looks to me like this is Breslow's second option year. He definitely used an option in 2006, because he was on the 40-man all year, but I think that was the first. He was signed out of the indy leagues in 2005, so I doubt he was added to the 40-man and optioned to the minors then, and he looks like he was added to the 40-man only to pitch in September. My understanding of the rules is that he wasn't ever optioned in 2005, so he didn't use up a year.

Either way, he definitely didn't use an option in any previous year, so at worst, he remains option-able.
   6. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 30, 2007 at 02:14 PM (#2423748)
do they DFA Timlin or Pineiro?

Both.
   7. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 30, 2007 at 02:35 PM (#2423762)
Following up on philly's post, the other thing with AA->AAA promotions is that Portland's in a playoff race, currently tied for second in the Northern Division (top two teams in each division make the postseason.) Pawtucket is not in the race in their league, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the top players on Portland stay around to play meaningful games down the stretch at a level pretty comparable to AAA.
   8. John DiFool2 Posted: June 30, 2007 at 04:24 PM (#2423804)
What are the relevant conversion factors for AA and AAA to the majors? I've seen MLEs bandied about here and there (Lowrie's looks really good) but I wouldn't know where to start with any translations...
   9. tfbg9 Posted: June 30, 2007 at 04:40 PM (#2423817)
Just shave off 17%? Something like that, and adjust for age and park effects?

I'm not sold on Manny D as the 7th inning guy yet, he seems kinda shakey command-wise a lot of the time. Last night he "made" a pitch right when he had to, but Sammy could have let it go for ball 4 I think.
   10. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 30, 2007 at 07:38 PM (#2423921)
Just shave off 17%?
These are the general conversion factors that MGL found - these are the same ones from the MLE spreadsheet I've been using. (All conversions are from minor league level to majors)

AAA OPS: .86
AAA LW: .72

AA OPS: .84
AA LW: .65

I think that Chone Smith ran a similar study and found just about equal values, though he also found that the PCL is notably easier than the International League, by several percentage points. The difference between AA and AAA is much smaller than the difference between AAA and the majors.

(And of course, these are general numbers that can't be applied to an individual case without running the risk of missing important qualitative factors.)
   11. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 30, 2007 at 07:40 PM (#2423923)
John - I can email you my MLE spreadsheet, based off MGL's numbers, if you're interested.
   12. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 30, 2007 at 07:45 PM (#2423928)
I'm not sold on Manny D as the 7th inning guy yet
I'm not either, but I like him better than any of the other options right now. Once Donnelly comes back, I would demote Delcarmen unless he shows something more soon. But I think Manny D was the best choice in the 7th last night - Snyder, Timlin, and Pineiro were the other options.

I think it's a useful heuristic to rank relievers by the quality of their best pitch. Delcarmen's fastball is the best pitch among the remaining relievers (obviously, Papelbon's fastball and split, and Okajima's split/change are better).
   13. Darren Posted: June 30, 2007 at 07:50 PM (#2423932)
It should also be noted that it's not as simple as shaving off X%. K/BB plays a very big role in how numbers translate.

Darren, you don't think Lars deserves to be upgraded to A+?


I don't know about deserves, but I think he has plenty left to learn in A ball and he's only 19. He has 67 Ks in 75 games, which indicates to me that he isn't in need of a promotion. YMMV.
   14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 30, 2007 at 07:54 PM (#2423935)
It should also be noted that it's not as simple as shaving off X%. K/BB plays a very big role in how numbers translate.
Good point - that and HRs. Home runs translate worse than any other batting event - though there are fewer of them, so the overall effect is smaller than that of the translation of K/BB.
   15. Maine John Posted: June 30, 2007 at 08:12 PM (#2423987)
MCOA,
That would be appreciated, thanks. I'm heading to Hadlock in less than an hour, I'll be in touch tomorrow!

John
   16. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: June 30, 2007 at 08:14 PM (#2423992)
I'm not either, but I like him better than any of the other options right now. Once Donnelly comes back, I would demote Delcarmen unless he shows something more soon. But I think Manny D was the best choice in the 7th last night - Snyder, Timlin, and Pineiro were the other options.


The Globe played up Delcarmen's strikeout of Sammy without mentioning the walk beforehand. I thought the praise should have been tempered. I think this team has enough options in relief that it should run the risk of DFAing Timlin or Pineiro to see who out of Breslow, Hughes, Delcarmen, and whoever else can be the seventh inning pitcher. Why waste great years from Hughes and Breslow in AAA? This team really needs another arm if Francona sticks to the Okajima in the 8th, Papelbon in the 9th formula he has settled into. Last night he had Delcarmen pitching the #3 (and #4 hitter), Okajima pitching to #5-7, and Papelbon pitching to the bottom of the order.
   17. Darren Posted: June 30, 2007 at 08:20 PM (#2424008)
I would like to see a system where Okajima warms in the 7ths and if needed, is used there. Then Pap warms in the 8th and is used there if needed. Considering that you want to limit Paps' appearances, I think it'd be nice if he averaged more than 1 IP per game.
   18. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 30, 2007 at 08:27 PM (#2424026)
Last night he had Delcarmen pitching the #3 (and #4 hitter), Okajima pitching to #5-7, and Papelbon pitching to the bottom of the order.
Okajima was warming in the 7th. Francona had Delcarmen pitch because the #3 and #4 hitters in the Texas lineup were righties. Okajima was set for the next batter.

Regarding the limit to Papelbon, it seems clear to me that they're limiting both his appearances and the length of his appearances, not one or the other. I don't know nearly enough to say that this limit to his workload is the best option on those presented, but it's just as impossible for me to ask them to pitch him more - the factors are way beyond our knowledge.
   19. Darren Posted: June 30, 2007 at 08:40 PM (#2424061)
You're right of course. But Papelbon seemed to have a hard time after he was used 3 times in 4 days earlier in the season. He hasn't show any such dropoff after his longer stints, AFAICT.

I did see that Okajima was warming but Delcarmen was in for the deciding batters. Would have been annoying if Okajima was only used after the lead was blown.

Also, Jacoby's up and starting in CF tonight.
   20. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 01, 2007 at 03:43 AM (#2424981)
So, retreating into the safe, warm bosom of minor league fandom...

Just another shutout, no-hit five innings for Buchholz. Two walks, four ks. Can he play SS, though? I hear he's fast, maybe he could pinch-run, at least.

And Lester had a good night, working 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K.
   21. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 01, 2007 at 03:48 AM (#2424983)
Also, who's Matt Sheely? He was part of the 2006 draft-and-follow class, and he didn't do much in the GCL last year, but he joined the Greenville team in late May, and he's on a tear. He hit a homer tonight to move his numbers to 327/375/519 in 56 PA, and he's been playing CF.
   22. Chip Posted: July 01, 2007 at 04:29 AM (#2424994)
Lester did need 100 pitches to get through those 5 innings, though.
   23. plim Posted: July 02, 2007 at 01:58 PM (#2426257)
I'm not sold on Manny D as the 7th inning guy yet, he seems kinda shakey command-wise a lot of the time. Last night he "made" a pitch right when he had to, but Sammy could have let it go for ball 4 I think.


i didn't see the pitch, but sosa letting it go for ball 4? com'on, the guy has a career .344 obp. he doesn't take ball 4s. unless the pitch was way outside, i'd say that was either good scouting or a good location call against sosa (assuming that delcarmen wanted to throw it there) =P
   24. chris p Posted: July 02, 2007 at 02:04 PM (#2426265)
(assuming that delcarmen wanted to throw it there)

yeah not so sure he did.
   25. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: July 02, 2007 at 02:04 PM (#2426266)
Portland is in New Britski later this week. Is Buchholz scheduled to start any of those days? I can't make it Thursday, but am tempted to go either Wednesday or Friday.
   26. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: July 02, 2007 at 02:15 PM (#2426278)
Does anyone have any information on this note in the BA prospect report about Buchholz's last start:
faced just 17 batters, five short of what he usually faces
   27. chris p Posted: July 02, 2007 at 02:25 PM (#2426286)
Portland is in New Britski later this week. Is Buchholz scheduled to start any of those days? I can't make it Thursday, but am tempted to go either Wednesday or Friday.

i don't think buchholz is starting for portland any more. i've heard he will get a a relief appereance and then will pitch in relief at the futures game. then probably pawtucket?
   28. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 02, 2007 at 02:28 PM (#2426288)
Despite this recent wave of suckage and lack of sack, I'm liking the Manny Delcarmen love and the results because of this love.
   29. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 05, 2007 at 01:40 PM (#2429452)
Last night, Lancaster won a one-game playoff, behind seven strong innings by Justin Masterson, to win the Southern Division first half crown, earning them a spot in the Cal League postseason. One assumes that we'll be hearing about some promotions today.

Bell, definitely. Granadillo and Masterson, probably. (A dude on SoSH posted that Masterson's put up a 2.65 ERA in June.) Maybe Wagner. Maybe Bates or Daeges.

I doubt the Sox will string the promotions - I don't see anyone in Greenville who seems to be in place to be promoted, but if they do go with Anderson or Reddick, that would be pretty awesome. Also, Matt Sheely, who I mentioned in #23 above, got a sudden promotion to Lancaster, apparently to fill in because of an injury. That suggests to me that the Sox see him more likely as an organizational soldier, which is too bad.
   30. Josh Posted: July 05, 2007 at 02:46 PM (#2429512)
On Soxprospects, various people are reporting that Bell and Masterson were promoted. It was apparently mentioned in the broadcast as a rumor, and confirmed by the players to a poster (if I read her post right).
   31. Chip Posted: July 06, 2007 at 03:03 AM (#2430614)
Ellsbury optioned back to Pawtucket after tonight's game, per NESN.
   32. Groovejigga00 Posted: July 26, 2007 at 02:24 AM (#2455735)
Also, Matt Sheely, who I mentioned in #23 above, got a sudden promotion to Lancaster, apparently to fill in because of an injury. That suggests to me that the Sox see him more likely as an organizational soldier, which is too bad.


I've seen Matt play, he's pretty good. As far as being an organizational soldier, I don't think so. Players move up and down frequently, and sometimes, when they're moved up, they have a chance to shine...I think he'll move along nicely through the organization...
   33. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 27, 2007 at 05:37 PM (#2457761)
I heard Lowrie went up to AAA

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