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1. Dale Sams Posted: April 19, 2010 at 10:05 PM (#3507810)No more reclamation projects. No more big contracts based on one big year. No more ex-steroid users. Today they looked like they had 6 guys out there who hadn't been together for more than a few months...oh, wait.
But seriously, they just need to relax and remember they're playing a game. It won't help them make the playoffs, but they may win a few more games.
This isn't basketball -- other than the battery, how familiar do the other players have to be with each other's idiosyncrasies? Wouldn't ST and 13 games be enough time for the IF/OF?
The Sox have been outscored 69 to 50, which projects to a record closer to 5-8 than 4-9. So they’ve been marginally poor at turning runs into wins.
Is Pythagorean record that precise over this few games? I was under the impression it was a blunt tool that's most useful over long periods of time.
Sure, we stink right now and the opposition was pretty strong. Personally I loved the 0-30 with RISP in the Tampa serious...very sweet indeed.
The team has too much talent not to win 90 games or so, however this slow start will make it incredibly difficult to eventually leapfrog either NY or Tampa; but the oppotunity is still there. And I'll say this again....Papi is toast.
I'm with Matt here. The numbers make me feel that things will turn around and they are not a bad team, they are a good team playing badly. Maybe they have dug themselves too deep a hole already, but I think there will be a lot more good than bad between now and the end of the season.
I'll let Ellsbury answer that one, providing he can type through the pain.
Just bein snarky.
Still, the trend is worrisome. The Rays scare me silly-they could be a brutal team if they hit on all cylinders and dodge big injuries.
Seriously, at this rate they'll go 12-69 at home. I'm pretty sure that'll turn around.
The key question, it seems to me, is when to cut bait on a guy who is long in the tooth and showing signs of utter uselessness.
Fer sure, we can rely on Theo to understand the concept of sunk cost and ignore past dollar commitments. Purely baseball-wise, though, how long do you wait to replace somebody with somebody else you think will be more productive?
IIRC, Back in '04 and '05 I insisted that a fork needed to be stuck in Kevin Millar early; in both years, he had significantly better second halves. There are lots of other examples. The problem is, the longer you wait to make a move, the deeper in the hole you are. I'd love to think Big Papi has another strong surge in him. But it'd be nice to see signs of it soon, 'cause otherwise...
Or even better, Clarence Carter's The Few Troubles I've Had---One of the sublime songs of all time.
Papi walks into the clubhouse and says: "Dudes, it's been a good run, but I got to step aside, I'm out. Told Theo to go with 13 pitchers and give my at bats to Lowell and Hermida 'cause they hit the high heat....and thanks for the chance to win two world series, I won't forget to write!"
To solve the Papi problem, I think we should bring back Pedro. As soon as Pedro left, Papi started to stink. Hey, it's worth a shot.
I think you're mixing up your Dominicans.
Ortiz has NOT been the same since.
I don't think it has anything to do with lack of Manny, since the decline can initially be traced to an injury that happened while Manny was still there. And obviously nothing to do with Pedro. How soon some forget a 54 homer season after Pedro was gone to NYM.
Hopefully they can salvage this homestand.
This team is just stinking it up right now and like others, I'm going to be patient. In light of this start, though, I would not be very surprised if they narrowly missed the playoffs. I do think that Tampa Bay has a lot of questions in their rotation, young arms with lots of promise but plenty of variability.
edit: and no, it wasn't an infield fly situation.
edit - and there is absolutely no need for Tim Wakefield to be on this team - none.
I think that's a function of expectation. I was having that conversation with a friend the other day. Through Monday they were 8th in DER at .700. Last year they were 13th at .678. The defense is a bit better though there have been a couple of high profile gaffes and it seems that they don't make a lot of spectacular plays though I think Scutaro and Beltre in particular are both playing pretty well and making plays that, while not exciting, were not being made last year.
Bill Hall's? Moving the runner up to third where an SF, WP, passed ball could score? The win expectancy went up 1.2% with the sac bunt.
I agree about Wake. I'd rather cut him and trade for a nice prospect to pitch in Pawtucket.*
*By nice, I mean someone with more ceiling than the useless Bowden.
I'm as big a Wake fan as there is (yes, even including karl), but if you don't have a catcher who can at least throw a little, then I'm not sure how you can send him out there and not expect more of the same.
Carlos Pena walked in a steal the other night - it is a frigging farce and what is being done about it?
Why should we expect anyone to pitch well , when they know a walk or single is a double. No wonder Clay has lost the plot and throws to first all the time.
Tonights win was a smoke screen - if Josh Hamilton could play the outfield properly we are talking about another loss.
dalesams - they give up an out with a runner already in scoring position and were ripe for a DP with Beltre at bat and Lowell at first - I didn't like it.
Well, it might also help if the Rangers' bullpen was worth the cost of washing their uniforms :)
Congratulations, Sox fans, but I agree, this SB thing is getting a little uncanny. Every time the Rangers play y'all they break the Sox record for SB allowed. If you get into games against actual good teams, this could create a nightmare.
I don't know how much it really matters in the end--although I admit it would drive me apeshit were the Yankees the ones giving this up*--but they are just going to crush that record unless people start getting caught.
*And they might soon, come on Montero!
Also, funny that the Ranger's best reliever getting 'promoted' to closer means he wasn't used in a really close game. Normally in sports, moving up in the depth charts means more playing time, not less.
Well, you'd hardly say the same thing about home runs if they'd given up bunches of them and still won. Stolen bases are minor successes compared to extra-base hits or getting on base to begin with, but if teams are stealing at will and never getting caught, that will cost you plenty of close games against good clubs.
Considering the steals contributed to the BoSox giving up 6 runs to an absolutely dreadful offense, I'm not sure it's something to just wave off.
Or what #35 said.
sure, but a team scoring 7 runs but giving up bunches (4-5?) of home runs will win that game maybe once or twice a decade.
1st inning - Cruz (2nd) - did not score
3rd inning - Andrus (2nd and 3rd) - scored, would not have without the SB
3rd inning - Guerrero (2nd and 3rd), Cruz (2nd) - did not score
4th inning - Borbon (2nd) - scored, would have scored if the inning played out as it did anyway
4th inning - Andrus (2nd) - did not score
5th inning - Cruz (3rd) - scored, would have scored if the inning played out as it did anyway
Now we can argue the point that you can't assume the inning would play out the same way but ultimately only Andrus' steals in the 3rd inning led to a run. I think there is a case to be made that it caused Wakefield to lose some focus but I think it is worth noting that even on a night when the Rangers were going around and around at will the impact on runs was fairly minimal.
None of which changes the basic point that it could be a larger issue as the season goes on.
I'm disappointed in NESN. I know that they were concentrating on the story on the field - the celebration and such. But they showed just one replay of where the ball hit in relation to where the glove was. How much did the ball miss the glove? I don't really know.
And Wake has one of those under his belt as well.
Probably a fairly routine F-7.
MLB.com should have the highlight that would give you a pretty good sense of it.
And the 4 or 5 shots to right field-380 that would have been out of Yankee Stadium and home runs in every other park?
Sorry. It was a 'wall ball' all the way. Scraped the wall about 3 or 4 feet above his glove as far as I can tell. His home run earlier probably would have been a gapper in most parks too.
Hittracker says it would have been gone in 18 parks (if I am reading the site correctly).
Here's the question, though: Have the Sox (and esp. Wake) shown any capacity to dampen the running game WHEN IT MATTERS?
Just like pitchers might be willing to risk throwing the ball over the plate with nobody on, I can conceive of situations where you really wouldn't care too much about a SB 'cause you know it doesn't significantly change run expectations, given the number of outs, the batter up, etc.
But sometimes a SB will matter a lot, and if your pitcher and/or catcher just can't reduce the probability in THOSE cases, you are going to suffer for it.
Seems to me Martinez's value as a player hinges on this issue a great deal. He's worth much less if all he is is a decent-hitting 1B or DH rather than an elite-hitting catcher.
It seems to me that when a stolen base matters is much more apparent in hindsight than at the time. Unless a game is a blowout or the team leads by 2+ in the 9th with a runner on first, pitchers should always work to reduce the success of the opponent's running game.
bad rib bruise to be sharply, stabbingly painful when he breaths deeply.
As for the mis-diagnosis, I wondered about not doing a CT scan earlier, when it was clear after 2-3 days something was lingering, but I suspect part of the "routine" of not doing a CT scan early on in the process is the amount of radiation a CT scan of the abdomen has. I know last year my son had 4 CT scans of his head in about 7 months, and after that the dentist didn't even want to do X-Rays of his teeth because they didn't want to pile on the radiation exposure any more than what was already done.
Basically, you don't want to subject guys to CT scans every time they get plunked in the ribs by a pitch--you only want to use it as (sort of) a last resort.
So what OFs are available?
So it sounds like the only issue with the "mis-diagnosis" in this case is the delay in putting him on the DL.
Well, that and annoying the hell out of us once again, sure.
He went to Hollywood Upstairs, after all.
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