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Sox Therapy — Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox Wednesday, January 17, 2018Where Is The Offense…It’s Right Over HereFanGraphs released the Red Sox’ ZiPS projections today and I think it is somewhat enlightening. With the daily “there are no new updates on J.D. Martinez” updates I think it is worth taking a gander at how the team projects. I used wOBA because it is a nice neat number to go with and compare year over year; 1B Mitch Moreland - 2017: .326 - 2018: .320 While the infield shows some slight decreases there are considerable gains to be had. First Bogaerts projects for a much better season in 2018 which stands to reason as injury dragged him down last year. Additionally health hopefully will benefit Holt and getting a full season of Devers too offset the mess that was third base for the first four months is a big plus. One guy not included in here is Eduardo Nunez who was key last August and while his timing and performance were impeccable he only played 38 games for the Sox. I have to say I’m pleasantly surprised that Moreland’s projection is as good as it is. I have had him mentally penciled in for a big drop but that is pretty minor. LF Andrew Benintendi - 2017: .332 - 2018: .343 Hubba hubba. The underreported story of 2017 was down years from the various Bs (including Bogaerts and Brock - see what I did there). Plexiglass principle alone should result in the some pretty solid improvement for the Sox and none of these performances look unattainable to me. The other thing the Sox can hopefully do better this year is get more from a fourth outfielder than Chris Young’s .310 wOBA of a year ago. Bryce Brentz is currently in that spot and has a .318 projection though I will admit to being skeptical of his ability to reach that level. C Christian Vazquez - 2017: .318 - 2018: 290 Swihart’s 2017 number was achieved in 7 plate appearances so that is worthless. Still it is not especially shocking that the Sox will have some need to cover some loss at the catcher position. I don’t think any sane person was expecting Vazquez to recreate 2017. DH Hanley Ramirez - 2017: .318 - 2018: .334 Another player who had a down 2017 but a player I am not optimistic will bounce back in 2018. What strikes me in general though is that the Sox have a lot of players making up ground on 2017. Bogaerts and the three outfielders combined for 40% of the Sox’ plate appearances in 2017 and should be expected to do so again. Add in Devers being a marked improvement over what the Sox got at third base last year (.677 OPS) and there is good reason that the Sox will see considerable improvement at five positions easily. I would still feel a lot better with J.D. Martinez donning the ol’ carmine hose but maintaining the status quo is not a bad thing. NOTE: I pulled numbers from FanGraphs free site and have the link. If Dan sees this and feels what I’ve done here is inappropriate use of that information please primer mail me or leave a comment and I’ll pull the numbers out. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine
Posted: January 17, 2018 at 04:51 PM | 19 comment(s)
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1. villageidiom Posted: January 18, 2018 at 09:20 AM (#5608609)Willie Randolph
Craig Biggio
Ellis Burks
Elbie Fletcher
Todd Zeile
Marcus Giles
Dan Wilson
Will Venable
Kevin Barker
That is not an inspirational lineup.
Don't get me wrong; this is a decent team and a decent lineup. There's enough quality here, including a Hall-of-Famer and a couple of guys who were on that trajectory for a while. But it seems to lack quantity of quality. ZiPS for JD Martinez hasn't been posted yet for 2018, but in 2017 his top comp was Richie Zisk, who also doesn't inspire me.
Interestingly, the player with the Biggio comp is not Pedroia. Nor is it Betts.
Speaking of...is his knee healed? Is he projected to start the season on the DL for some team, or is he ready to go?
- Hanley says he is ready to play first base
- David price is healthy and expected to be ready to go right from the start of spring training
- Carson Smith is 100%
- Tyler Thornburg has clearance to throw and may or may not be ready to start the season.
v.i., is #1 their overall comps, or those through age X?
Probably should have mentioned that before they signed Moreland.
No idea. It's whatever Szym/ZiPS gives for a comp.
I suppose the exception here is that JD Drew was actually worth the contract he signed, and it's unlikely that Martinez will be, if the numbers I've seen are accurate.
That's my thinking. There is no real downside right now if you are Martinez. Wait it out and if someone gets hurt your market opens up. My guess is next week is when something breaks.
As an aside Drew was delayed in part because Theo got married.
Just hope JD can handle DH. [in a meager sample of 151 AB's, he hasn't, with a 9:49 BB:K split]
Like I said, stupid conspiracy theory,
I don't recall anything about the Red Sox, but the Globe sat on a story about drug use by some of the Patriots' players until the day after Super Bowl XX. They first heard about the issue in December, but didn't report it until the very end of January.
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