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Sox Therapy— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox
Friday, November 11, 2011
You Will Never See Anything Like Him Again: Jonathan Papelbon
I’m not saying that the Red Sox cannot replace Jonathan Papelbon’s production going forward, but I am saying that what he did for them (us) was incredible. With a 197 ERA+ for his career, a 1.00 ERA in the playoffs, Paps was just about as close to perfect for the Sox as a closer can be. Add to that the fake intense face, the dancing, the goofy Ricky Bobby persona, and you’ve got one of the most memorable Red Sox ever. Thanks for the memories.
Darren
Posted: November 11, 2011 at 09:56 PM | 62 comment(s)
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1. Dave Cyprian Posted: November 11, 2011 at 10:15 PM (#3991389)So many great moments in his career. Wasn't his MLB debut the day at the deadline in 2005 that Manny was surprisingly yanked right before first pitch leading all of us to think he was being traded? Then at the end of that year he had a huge multi-inning relief appearance in Toronto that Ortiz won in extras with an HR I think. And of course 2007 was sensational. His work in game seven of the ALCS gets lost but to retire Hafner, Mrtinez and Garko all representing the tie run in the eighth was electrifying.
Glad he's headed to the Phillies, I've always liked them so rooting for him will be easy.
Loved that multi-inning appearance you mentioned too.
If he stays healthy, he is going to put up some ridiculous numbers in the NL.
MUWAHAHAHAH! YANKEEZ ROOL!
Why? The big difference between the two is pitching to DH's vs. pitching to pitchers. How many closers in the NL get to face pitchers?
If you sign up for mlb.tv, you should be able to watch the Phillies games. I don't think you're in a blackout area.
Good luck, Philly. You will need it.
Pretty sure the Red Sox are much more in need of luck than the Phillies.
4)June 3, 2005: Alex Rodriguez hits a tie-breaking, ninth inning solo homer to the opposite field over the short wall at Fenway.
3)July 6, 2008: Brett Gardner hits a walkoff 70 hopper worm-burner up the middle.
2)May 17, 2010: A-Rod hits a game tying homer, then Marcus Thames wallops a walkoff a few pitches later.
1)August, 2006: Derek Jeter flares a duckfart into right field in Game 4 of the 2006 Boston Massacre, tying the game with two outs and two strikes. Yankees would win it in extras.
You mean now that La Russa's retired?
I remember this vividly. It was so maddening, so incomprehensible. Arod really crushed a good pitch on that one.
Also, Okajima really sucked that game.
1) Papelbon certainly won the arbitration, year-to-year gamble. By taking the gamble, he probably picked up, what, close to $5 million extra in salary over his Red Sox career, and got to free agency a couple years earlier than he would've in a Pedroia/Lester/Youkilis-type deal. Good for him.
2) I think the Red Sox will be happy they did not sign him to this kind of money by year three of the contract. I mean, how many guys have been able to keep this level of effectiveness up through their 10th year of relief pitching? And, if the Sox were going to have to spend $12-$13m a year to keep him, wouldn't that be better spent on quality starting pitching? I'm cool with making Bard the closer, and preparing to redirect the money coming off the books this off-season towards true blue-chip players in the lineup and the starting rotation...even if it means not spending all that money this off-season because of a lack of blue-chip players available...
That Texas game was a doozy.
Yes he bet on himself and won. But I don't think the gamble was as big as it was made out by writers who thought he was stupid not to take whatever team-friendly deals were offered to him.
I've been reading this sort of thing quite a bit lately, and I just don't follow. The rivalry is the rivalry because it goes back pretty much to the founding of the American League. Did the air go out of the rivalry after the 1908 season, when Jack Chesbro left the Yankees and Cy Young left the Red Sox? Yankee fans still have Youkilis and Beckett to hate; Red Sox fans can still rag on A-Rod and Jeter.
No, of course not. He's better so far.
This subject has been widely discussed here over the years. Guess you weren't reading, or comprehending.
Why? The big difference between the two is pitching to DH's vs. pitching to pitchers. How many closers in the NL get to face pitchers?
This brings up an interesting analytical point, which should be dealt with when predicting ERA for pitchers switching leagues:
Do closers have a different league-swapping effect on their stats, since part of the AL/NL difference is the DH/notDH, and closers in general face very few pitchers batting? Has anyone researched this?
The article does not support this. It says at one point he was using fastballs 81% of the time. And neither does it confirm your slander that Papelbon consciously made the decision to pitch in a manner more geared towards his own financial security than for helping win games for the Red Sox.
Like I said...you make things up.
The pivot from Madson to Papelbon in 36 hours when supposedly the team had a deal in place for Madson is... interesting. Will be fun to hear the story there. Have always liked Madson, but suspect the Red Sox will just go with Bard as closer, unless Cherington has Bell/Madson in mind with Bard getting shipping in some mega-deal for a starter or something.
I think his 2006 is an underrated super-fun season. Guy just started dominating the league from day 1. You don't see that happen much in this game.
The Red Sox have, in my estimation of things, $25-30M to spend this offseason. I can't claim to be terribly disappointed they're not spending half of it on Papelbon. But there are also worse ways of spending 4/50 than on Jonathan Papelbon, so I'm leaving my opinion open to revision until I see what they do with their money.
This struck me as a bit odd with Papelbon, ORtiz and Drew coming off the books, so I checked over at Cot's expecting to see a bunch of arb-eligibles that I'd assumed weren't arb-eligible yet. What I found out instead was that Crawford and Gonzalez will cost $20M more in 2012 than they did in 2011. Wow. Still, would paying Papelbon $0.5M more than they did in 2011 really have broken the bank?
Apparently that's not hard to do...
It surprises me that so many Red Sox fans have great memories of the guy and yet are happy to see him go. Does it matter that much to fans how much money a team spends on players? Do we enjoy a guy more if his salary-to-WAR ratio is low? I mean, do we think this contract is an albatross for Philly? Surely he's got at least a couple more great years in him and any nitpicking on contract is at the margins? It's not Vernon Wells territory here.
I would be sad as a fan to lose a player like this, but it appears many in Boston are happy with the two draft picks? Maybe I am not looking at this the right way.
True, but we allready have Lackey under contract anyway.
I never understand this POV. Do I care how much the Red Sox spend? - No, not really. But I understand that they AREN'T going to spend Yankee level infinity dollars. So knowing that they are only going to spend about X, I care what we get back for that.
If you ask me on opening day, would I rather have the team that they have, or the same team plus Papelbon, it would be a no brainer. But that's not the choice. If having Papelbon means they miss out on signing one of Wilson/Darvish/Jackson/Buehrle etc, I would not be happy about having Papelbon, since I think SP are both better bets than closers, and also represent a bigger need for the Sox right now.
But I also know that the Sox have a payroll limit. Something like $25-30M more, and they need two starting pitchers, a DH, and another good relief arm or two. I look at that problem, and spending $13M on a closer doesn't look like the best plan of action. The money needs to be spent as efficiently as possible, and I don't think a relief ace is the best use, especially when the Sox project to have a good reliever worthy of high-lev innings already on the roster.
I thought that all the memories here of Papelbon were reasonably clearly a way of saying goodbye to a guy we all really liked. I don't see any dancing on his grave or whatev. (other than fly, but fly is a crazy person.)
I think as a whole the Sox have the worst fanbase in baseball....but not around here.
Great pitcher, was glad to have him, never became emotionally invested in him.
When I've tried to point out that they recently signed a "proven closer" to a 3-year deal that turned out to be a disaster (Lidge's extension from 2009-2011) as far as allocation of resources goes, they've basically shrugged and said the equivalent of "but Papelbon's got a killer fastball and Lidge got hurt." To which I've replied, "Exactly."
I would have been mad as hell had the Red Sox signed Papelbon to the deal the Phillies gave him, so in that sense I'm glad to see him go. But I also never thought he'd re-sign either, so the "meh" feeling for me is that I've thought for years he wouldn't be around after this year.
Well it'll be interesting to see how excited they are when Paps comes in to close a 3-2 game, walks the first guy and let's him go to 2nd on indifference, and the next batter hits a deep fly to left centre....THAT I won't miss.
Needless to say, Paps was good, but as mentioned above, with the choices on offer, would much rather spend the 13mil/per elsewhere. Would love to see some solid SP.
Nah, 12-13 millions will be (literally) chump change 3 years from now anyway when the world economy goes down the abosalute shite pipe.
Not a pipe I will be smoking...
For me, that fifth-year option is only a very minor consideration. The big reason not to sign Papelbon is the worry about his health, particularly his shoulder's structural integrity, and the option is close to fully hedged against that. Guaranteed years three and four are the place where the club really takes on the risk of Papelbon's shoulder. For the Sox, the further reason not to match this contract is that the club doesn't have a lot of money to spend this offseason, and so they'd be getting relatively less value from the early seasons of the deal, which are supposed to be the team-favorable slice of the contract. Obviously the Sox have to spend the money well to make this choice a good one.
EDIT: I had talked about "opportunity cost" to signing Papelbon, but I edited it out because it's not quite the right term. The issue for the Sox is that they have limited resources, and the replacement level on the roster for leveraged relief innings is Bard/Aceves/Morales/Albers. The team also needs two starters, and the replacement level for those innings is Doubront/Weiland/Tazawa. The Sox will get more value for their free agent dollar if they go for starters - the idea I'm trying to express in the last couple sentences there is mostly about replacement level and relative value given the actually-existing Red Sox roster.
I think he generally wasn't appreciated enough. (And to forestall your next question, no, I don't have "proof," so feel free to disregard my comments.) He was a great, great reliever for the Red Sox, and generally succeeded in high profile situations, including in the precious "playoffs." I don't know what it would have taken for people to appreciate him, but I know he wasn't able to find it.
I was just saying tha Meramec seemed to be suggesting that Sox fans who accepted Papelbon's leaving for the Phillies were happy to see him go, and I wanted to make a distinction between feeling Paps wasn't worth the contract and being happy about his departure.
Fair enough. I do think the truth is closer to "happy to see him go" than "not worth the contract."
You're such a purist.
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