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Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Minor League Thread: Pulling Me Back In

Ten games into the season is no time to be making dumb extrapolations from minor league statistics, but from another perspective, it is the perfect time.

Three of the Red Sox top prospects of 2008 have been encouragingly not terrible, even kinda great, over the first games of 2010.  Lars Anderson is the biggest – he has three homers in the first ten games, after knocking only nine all of last season, en route to a nice 316/381/632 line.  The Dominican bonus baby pair of Oscar Tejeda and ...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 20, 2010 at 12:07 PM | 66 comment(s)
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Monday, April 19, 2010

What’s Wrong?  Everything.

They say that failure is an orphan, but in the case of the Red Sox 4-9 start to the season, failure is like some sort of test tube clone freak spliced from the DNA of dozens of different people.  And it is like other, better similes as well.

The Sox have been outscored 69 to 50, which projects to a record closer to 5-8 than 4-9.  So they’ve been marginally poor at turning runs into wins.  The Sox have a .329 wOBA, 5th in the AL, but they’re 10th in the league in runs scored.  So they’ve ...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 19, 2010 at 09:17 PM | 57 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Tuesday, April 06, 2010

How Good Is Josh Beckett?

There appears to be a developing BTF consensus that Josh Beckett’s 4/68 extension is perfectly fair, and probably somewhat favorable to the Red Sox.  John Lackey, whose ERA+ numbers have been functionally equivalent to Beckett’s the last three years, got a bit more from the Red Sox.  Walt Davis mentions Carlos Zambrano (5/91), AJ Burnett (5/82) and Derek Lowe (4/60) as comparables.  That all looks reasonably good.

But we’re statheads, right?  We stopped caring about actual runs prevented years ...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 06, 2010 at 01:45 PM | 35 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Sunday, April 04, 2010


What’s the deal with this?  It’s opening day and it’s 75 degrees out and it’s a night game.  Consider this an open thread to draw far-reaching and panicky conclusions about the Red Sox after just one game, and then consider this an open thread to perform your emotional and intellectual superiority as represented by your lack of concern and/or tempered excitement about the events of the game.

In unimportant news, Terry Francona’s lineup matches almost exactly what I projected in one of the ...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 04, 2010 at 11:10 PM | 64 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Sunday, March 28, 2010

I Haven’t Been Watching Spring Training

For a variety of boring reasons, I’ve watched only a handful of innings this spring.  I think this lack has also shaped my expectations, in that I haven’t really changed any of the opinions I held after watching the team in ’09 and then seeing the projection spreadsheets in February.  The two major divergences between my expectations and those of the broader March-baseball-watching Therapudlian population seem to be David Ortiz and Josh Reddick. 

The following are their projections ...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: March 28, 2010 at 12:13 PM | 12 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Your Two Thousand and Ten Boston Red Sox

We’re a week away from opening day against the Yankees, so it seems like a good time to look at the roster.

C: Martinez, Varitek
IF: Youkilis, Pedroia, Beltre, Scutaro, Hall, 25th man
OF: Ellsbury, Cameron, Drew, Hermida
DH: Ortiz

SP: Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Wakefield, Buchholz
RP: Papelbon, Okajima, Bard, Ramirez, Delcarmen, 6th reliever, 7th reliever

Mike Lowell is the 25th man if he can play baseball, but that appears doubtful.  While Lowell’s role would be to back up the corners and ...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: March 27, 2010 at 03:36 PM | 63 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

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