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1. Spivey Posted: May 20, 2006 at 11:11 PM (#2029862)Also, note that I wrote this yesterday afternoon, before the Rangers loss to Houston.
Jamey Newberg recently reported via mlb.com that Danks will see the Rangers' team physician soon due to left elbow and forearm soreness he felt in his last start, a 6-inning 12-strikeout start against San Antonio. The club, however, claims the move is "purely precautionary" and they hope he'll only miss one start. Doesn't that typically mean a trip to the surgeon and a 6-12 month rehab stint is less than a month away?
I'm not familiar with the inner workings of that program, but I don't understand how it could project a 25 year old player to hit 700 HR. It doesn't seem to have a large enough regression/injury factor.
His main value seems to be in his good defense and good durability. His EQA last year was .308, and I think that's probably his upper limit (although he might have one or two years better than that in his career) - although he'll be very good and generally an all-star, I haven't been impressed with his offense to the point where I think he can be the best hitter in the league (adjusted for park) even in his best year. He looks like he'll be 'very good' for a very long time, so he could very likely be a HOFer - I guess that could certainly be called a superstar... I don't think he's going to have the peak of Hank Greenberg though.
And the last 2 years, he's made 19 and 18 errors - which is just about average for a SS. If he was making 10 errors, you could live with the poor range. But, he's making an average number of errors and he has no range to his left, giving up single after single up the middle.
He's such a great hitter, and locked up to such a reasonable contract, that I still really like him.
But he struggles mightily at defense.
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