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1. The District Attorney Posted: July 20, 2010 at 04:58 AM (#3593897)Not familiar with Mitch Moreland, so I can't offer an opinion there.
Salty is NOT an option. He's hit like an organizational soldier in AAA the last few months. Moreland, maybe. He has good plate discipline. He's not really starting 1B material. He might be better than Davis has been, but I don't think you count on it during a pennant race and going into the playoffs. I expect the Rangers to make a deal for a 1B veteran, probably a righty.
He was a MLB caliber hitter in 317 PAs in 2008
He's also 24
McPherson's injury history is scary, does Davis have that?
Ok his plate discipline is abysmal, Frenchiesque so to speak, and it's quite likely that will eat him alive, but he seems to be starting from a higher level (AAA performance anyway) maybe he needs a change in scenery? How about to KV for Alex Gordon?
define non hitter
2007-2009, 91 players have had 300+ PAs seasons primarily as 1Bs (1 starting 1B per team IOW)
the MEDIAN OPS+ for a "starting" 1B was 122, 2007-09 is pretty typical, the median starting 1B has been around 120 for decades.
A 1B who hits 90 in a bad year and 110 in a good year (let's call him a mancaveitch) is like a SS (median 92) who hits 68 in a bad year and 83 in a good one (let's call him a post-30 Juliolugo)...
You really don't want that guy on your team as anything other than a short term stopgap.
Your 1B can't just be a "league average" hitter- he HAS to be better
Just till late October will be fine :)
À propos of nothing, I just got an e-mail from the Rangers with this subject line:
Relive your trip to Rangers Ballpark in Arlington!
My last trip involved a three-hour rain delay, soggy seats, a $5 watery Sprite, and a blown save by the Ranger bullpen well after midnight. No thanks.
The problem with this is that people were saying the exact (I mean, the exact) same thing about Nelson Cruz a couple years ago and now he has a .916 OPS over the past 3 years. I'm sure the Rangers are hoping for a Cruz-like breakout from Davis. Obviously that kind of thing doesn't happen often but they do have a prominent example of a guy who many people thought was a AAAA player on their team.
Some truth to this, but part of Cruz's problem was that Texas kept jerking him around and never just gave him a job and the chance to hit. Davis was given every chance in 2009, and while Texas pulled the plug on him earlier this year, he was beyond hopeless while he was up. Sending him to the minors was an act of mercy at that point. Davis might figure it out someday, but how long should a team in contention stick with a 1B who hits like he has the past two seasons?
Yeah, I hadn't realized Salty was slumping so badly in AAA after his good start. He's not an option. But Davis isn't either.
The problem with this is that people were saying the exact (I mean, the exact) same thing about Nelson Cruz a couple years ago and now he has a .916 OPS over the past 3 years. I'm sure the Rangers are hoping for a Cruz-like breakout from Davis. Obviously that kind of thing doesn't happen often but they do have a prominent example of a guy who many people thought was a AAAA player on their team.
That's true. But Davis was going to absolutely shatter the strikeout rate last year if he wasn't sent down. He isn't striking out as much now (though he's still above 25% of PAs, which is too high) but it's still higher than Cruz's was and his ISO hasn't stayed nearly as high. His swing is just too long - I don't think it's unreasonable that he just can't beat advanced scouting - pitchers know his weaknesses and MLB pitchers are generally capable of taking advantage of it. This may explain why he was good to start with.
At minimum Nelson was going to be a good platoon player. Toss in the defense and he was a solid 4th outfielder. And then he held his own against righties.
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