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— Our Blogs and Nothing But Our Blogs Hall of Merit: Links to positional threads from last yearHere’s a link to the postional threads, I’ll just add a few notes if there’s something that needs to be considered that isn’t obvious, for those new to the discussions. Catchers - by far the worst hitters as a group, so the ones that could hit (i.e. Deacon White, Buck Ewing, Charlie Bennett) were extremely valuable. First Basemen - the pre-gloves players should get a major boost. Gloves caused the defensive spectrum to shift. Second Basemen - equivalent to 3B today, it was more offensive ... Read More...JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head
Posted: March 19, 2003 at 03:21 AM | 20 comment(s)
Related News: Hall of Merit: First Ballot ScheduleOkay, let’s get this rolling. Let’s open the 1906 polls from March 30 (a Saturday) through April 6 (a Sunday). My fantasy league, of which I’m the commissioner drafts April 5, so I’ll be busy inputting rosters, moves, etc. on the 6th and 7th, but I should be able to tally the ballots by April 9. We’ll then reopen the polls for 1907 on Monday the 14th, and get on a one-week on, one-week off schedule, generally voting Monday-Sunday. Does this work? I need suggestions for how to structure the discussion threads leading to the first ballot. Should I reopen the old threads? Organize them by position, etc? What would you like? The ballot structure we decided on was: 5 electees: 24-23-22-21-20-15-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6 I think this is the schedule for electees that we agreed on: 1906 5 Then from 1918 through 1975 we elect two candidates per year. The year we “catch up” to the expected number of HoMers is 1955. Keep in mind that we will be 18.9 candidates behind when we start, plus we should be inducting 1.26 new per year at that time. From 1976-83 we alternate between 3 in even years, 2 in odd years. From 1984-95 we elect 3 candidates per season. From 1996-2008 we elect a 4th candidate in “leap years”. Starting in 2010, we’ll alternate between 4 in even years, 3 in odd years. In 2014 we’ll be at 4 every year, except leap year when we’ll elect 3. We’ll stay with that until another expansion throws us off, but earliest it would change an election would be 2019 (assuming expansion next year). Here’s a link to the thread discussing the Constitution. Let me know what else we need. We’ll be voting through the yahoo group. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head
Posted: March 18, 2003 at 03:39 PM | 31 comment(s)
Related News: Hall of Merit: 1876 National LeagueOnce again, jimd’s thoughts are in the discussion: Standings W L PCT GB Adjusted Standings W L PCT GB Chicago 52 14 .788 -- Chicago 128 33 .794 -- Hartford 47 21 .691 6.0 St.Louis 115 46 .717 13 St.Louis 45 19 .703 6.0 Hartford 112 49 .694 16 Boston 39 31 .557 15.0 Boston 90 71 .557 38 Louisville 30 36 .455 22.0 Louisville 75 86 .467 53 New York 21 35 .375 26.0 New York 61 100 .379 67 Philadelphia 14 45 .237 34.5 Philadelphia 39 122 .245 89 Cincinnati 9 56 .136 42.5 Cincinnati 24 137 .146 104 If you look at the 3 worst teams, only Philadelphia had more than one or two legit major leaguers. Also the three teams were by far the worst fielding teams in the league. Removing them from the standings would produce these records: Standings W L PCT GB Chicago 112 48 .700 -- St. Louis 94 66 .589 18 Hartford 89 71 .558 23 Boston 61 99 .379 51 Louisville 44 116 .273 68
JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head
Posted: March 03, 2003 at 11:45 PM | 8 comment(s)
Related News: Hall of Merit: 1875 National Associationjimd’s summary is in the discussion below. 1875 saw the culmination of the Boston dynasty, Harry Wright’s most dominant team. Here are the standings: Final Standings W L PCT GB Adjusted Standings W L PCT GB Boston 71 8 .899 -- Boston 144 12 .926 -- Phil. Athletics 53 20 .726 15.0 Phil. Athletics 125 31 .801 19 Hartford 54 28 .659 18.5 Hartford 114 42 .731 30 St. Louis Browns 39 29 .574 26.5 St. Louis Browns 110 46 .708 34 Phil. Pearls 37 31 .544 28.5 Phil. Pearls 104 42 .669 40 Chicago 30 37 .448 35.0 Chicago 98 58 .628 46 New York 30 38 .441 35.5 New York 93 63 .596 51 St. Louis Reds 4 15 .211 37.0 Phil. Centennials 62 94 .394 82 Washington 5 23 .179 40.5 New Haven 43 113 .277 101 New Haven 7 40 .149 48.0 Washington 43 113 .276 101 Phil. Centennials 2 12 .143 37.5 St. Louis Reds 35 121 .221 109 Keokuk 1 12 .077 38.0 Brooklyn 26 130 .169 118 Brooklyn 2 42 .045 51.5 Keokuk 16 140 .104 128 Boston didn’t just get fat on the club teams either, this team was incredible, probably the most dominant in major league history. They played at least .750 against every team in the league. The Pearls played them the best, taking 2-of-8. Here are what the standings would have looked like if you cut ‘major’ league off with New York, the logical place to draw the line: Final Standings W L PCT GB Boston 139 23 .861 -- Phil. Athletics 102 60 .726 37 Hartford 82 80 .507 57 St. Louis Browns 76 86 .468 63 Phil. Pearls 65 97 .404 74 Chicago 55 107 .340 84 New York 47 115 .291 92 I’m just thankful the one season where NY finished 92 games behind Boston concluded 97 years before I was born, and 15 years before my great-grandmother was born.
JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head
Posted: February 24, 2003 at 05:17 PM | 4 comment(s)
Related News: Hall of Merit: 1874 National AssociationThanks again to jimd for the summary in the discussion portion. 1874 Standings W L PCT GB Adj. Standings W L PCT GB Boston 52 18 .743 -- Boston 120 41 .743 -- New York 42 23 .646 7.5 New York 104 57 .648 16 Phil. Athletics 33 22 .600 11.5 Phil. Athletics 102 59 .636 18 Phil. Pearls 29 29 .500 17.0 Phil. Pearls 84 77 .521 36 Chicago 28 31 .475 18.5 Chicago 78 83 .485 42 Brooklyn 22 33 .400 22.5 Brooklyn 70 91 .433 50 Hartford 16 37 .302 27.5 Hartford 53 108 .329 67 Baltimore 9 38 .191 31.5 Baltimore 33 128 .206 87 Here are the standings removing Hartford and Baltimore, who only had a few true major leaguers amongst them. Adj.II Standings W L PCT GB Boston 110 50 .690 -- New York 93 67 .578 17 Phil. Athletics 90 70 .564 20 Phil. Pearls 69 91 .434 41 Chicago 63 97 .395 47 Brooklyn 54 106 .339 56 Boston continues their dominance, winning their 3rd consecutive pennant. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head
Posted: February 22, 2003 at 04:29 PM | 10 comment(s)
Related News: Hall of Merit: 1873 National AssociationThanks again to jimd for this summary, which is in the discussion portion. First the standings: Actual Standings W L PCT GB Adjusted Standings W L PCT GB Boston 43 16 .729 -- Boston 120 41 .744 -- Phil. White Stock. 36 17 .679 4.0 Phil. White Stock. 115 46 .715 5 Baltimore 34 22 .607 7.5 Baltimore 100 61 .623 20 Phil. Athletics 28 23 .549 11.0 Phil. Athletics 97 64 .604 23 New York 29 24 .547 11.0 New York 96 65 .594 24 Brooklyn 17 37 .315 23.5 Brooklyn 61 100 .379 59 Washington 8 31 .205 20.0 Washington 38 123 .233 82 Elizabeth 2 21 .088 23.0 Elizabeth 18 143 .109 102 Maryland 0 6 .000 16.5 Just like 1872, a few adjustments need to be made for the weak sisters again. I’ll give the standings how they would look at each possible spot where you could draw the ‘major league’ line. The first would be to remove Elizabeth, as they were really just a club team that gave it a whirl, Washington had at least tried the year before, and wasn’t total dreck. The second adjustment would be to remove Washington, who, while not total dreck was clearly not on the level of these teams: No Elizabeth W L PCT GB No Eliz./Wash. W L PCT GB Boston 115 47 .707 -- Boston 106 54 .665 -- Phil. White Stock. 109 53 .674 6 Phil. White Stock. 101 59 .628 5 Baltimore 93 69 .571 22 Baltimore 82 78 .513 24 Phil. Athletics 89 73 .549 26 Phil. Athletics 78 82 .489 28 New York 87 75 .538 28 New York 76 84 .476 30 Brooklyn 49 113 .303 66 Brooklyn 37 123 .228 69 Washington 25 137 .156 90 The final adjustment would be removing Brooklyn, since they were clearly below the pack of the other 5. Top 5 W L PCT GB Boston 100 60 .622 -- Phil. White Stock. 93 67 .581 7 Baltimore 73 87 .454 27 Phil. Athletics 69 91 .428 31 New York 66 94 .415 34 Feel free to draw the line wherever you’d like. As far as the individual achievements go, Ross Barnes has solidified his place as the star of the league. George Wright and Levi Meyerle are also looking like superstars, Cap Anson is coming into his own, and Deacon White made his first Silver Slugger squad. Lip Pike and George Hall are also consistently among the best players in the league.
JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head
Posted: February 13, 2003 at 11:52 PM | 3 comment(s)
Related News: Hall of Merit: 1872 National AssociationAll of the text in the discussion portion is courtesy of jimd, who did an outstanding job; and he makes an interesting case for a defensive spectrum shift as well. It’s one that seems obvious to me now, but which I had never thought of, we’ll save that for later. Here’s a look at the standings: ACTUAL STANDINGS W L PCT GB PERFECT BALANCE W L PCT GB Boston 39 8 .830 -- Boston 141 19 .883 -- Philadelphia 30 14 .682 7.5 Philadelphia 127 33 .796 14 Baltimore 35 19 .648 7.5 New York 119 41 .745 22 New York 34 20 .630 8.5 Baltimore 116 44 .727 25 Troy 15 10 .600 13.0 Troy 107 53 .670 34 Cleveland 6 16 .273 20.5 Bro. Atlantics 72 88 .451 69 Bro. Atlantics 9 28 .243 25.0 Cleveland 71 89 .443 70 Was. Olypics 2 7 .222 18.0 Middletown 60 100 .372 81 Middletown 5 19 .208 22.5 Bro. Eckfords 50 110 .312 91 Bro. Eckfords 3 26 .103 27.0 Was. Olympics 16 144 .100 125 Was. Nationals 0 11 .000 21.0 Was. Nationals 0 160 .000 141 There’s more to this though. There were clearly 5 teams that stood out from the pack. What would the standings look like if we considered only these teams ‘major league’? Also, what would the standings look like for the middle four teams? The last two don’t really matter since they couldn’t beat any of these teams. The only two wins for the Olympics came against the Nationals. BAL. TOP TIER W L PCT GB BAL. AAA W L PCT GB Boston 119 41 .744 -- Bro. Atlantics 103 59 .633 -- Philadelphia 89 71 .559 30 Cleveland 100 62 .616 3 New York 73 87 .456 46 Middletown 73 89 .452 30 Baltimore 68 92 .423 51 Bro. Eckfords 48 114 .298 55 Troy 51 109 .318 68 When we compute adjusted Win Shares, we’ll use the top tier standings above for the players on those teams, as a way of letting the air out of their stats. For 2nd tier teams, we’ll give them credit for the wins they would have had under a balanced schedule, if they were the 6th team in the league. I’m pretty sure we’ll be able to work this out, although it may require more editing than it’s worth. But, there are some players of consequence on those teams, guys like Jack Burdock, Deacon White, Ezra Sutton, Jim O’Rourke and John Clapp, so we’ll have to figure something out. I’m open to ideas here. But if we can find a sound way to let the air out of their stats, it’ll help to ease the concerns of some about the quality of the competition. There’s a lot more about the season in the discussion portion. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head
Posted: February 11, 2003 at 05:43 AM | 1 comment(s)
Related News: Hall of Merit: 1871 National AssociationThis will be the first recap of a 19th Century season. Besides baseball-reference.com my main sources will be The Stats All-Time Handbook, The Stats All-Time Sourcebook and The Great Encyclopedia of the 19th Century Major League Baseball. I’ll be presenting two sets of standings, the first, the games as they were played. The second set will show what the standings would have been over a balanced schedule, with the aim for somewhere between 154 and 162 games where possible. I have a complex set of formulas that adjusts for the unbalanced schedule. I don’t want to get into too many details here, but I adjust each team’s skill rate based on schedule strength. Then I prove out the actual W-L record to within .05 for each team (in most cases) using the actual schedule, and the formula for W-L between two teams A and B: (WpctA*LpctB)/((WpctA*LpctB)+(WpctB*LpctA)). I plug that formula in for every combination (multiplied by actual games played), and prove out the records. With wacky schedules sometimes the numbers have to be manually tweaked, but that just improves the accuracy. I’ll send you the spreadsheet if you have any interest in the gory details. Once that is done, the sheet computes a second set of standings based on a balanced schedule. Since there were 9 teams in the 1871 NA, I had each team play each other 20 times (160 game season). I take one final step of rounding up enough teams to make the standings ‘add up’. Sometimes due to rounding, the whole league comes out 1001-999 or something when you add up the rounded numbers. So I find the team over .5 by the least and round them down instead of up (or vice versa if the league is 999-1001). It’s just for appearances, that’s all. The PCT is based on the actual numbers of adjusted wins and losses, as many decimals as excel calculates. Since we care about individuals more than teams for this exercise, once we get the Win Shares spreadsheet adjusted for 19th Century purposes, I’ll be computing adjusted NA Win Shares based on the second set of standings (adjusted to 162 game seasons of course), so we account for unbalanced schedules. It’s especially important, with the short, haphazard schedules, to remove this bias. One other note on the 1871 NA. Rockford’s manager/catcher Scott Hastings played with New Orleans over the previous winter to earn some extra $$. On April 16, New Orleans played Chicago in an exhibition game (this was before the first NA season opener). Here are the results (the actual standings only include games actually played, no forfeits):
*see posts 6, 8 and 10 for explanation of Troy and Fort Wayne’s records You can see that Philly and Chicago both played pretty tough schedules (their adjPCT is .026 higher than actual) while Boston didn’t. In reality, Chicago probably would have won the pennant if it wasn’t for The Fire (see discussion). Boston would have won if it weren’t for an injury that cost George Wright half the season. There’s more, including a Silver Slugger team in the discussion portion. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head
Posted: January 24, 2003 at 04:35 AM | 30 comment(s)
Related News: Hall of Merit: All Time Negro Leagues All-StarsI’ll list the top players as listed from two solid sources, the The Complete Book of Baseball’s Negro Leagues; and the New Historical Baseball Abstract. I’ll also give career dates, courtesy of The Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Baseball Leagues so we can begin to get a grasp on eligibility, etc.. The links are there because they are excellent books to buy if you have a few extra dollars. You’ll have to scroll back up after you click the link. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head
Posted: January 17, 2003 at 02:37 AM | 313 comment(s)
Related News: Hall of Merit: Season by Season RecapI think one way to build towards the first election is to recap each season with a thread, starting with the 1871 NA. I’m thinking a season a day (Monday-Friday). As we go through time this way, we’ll start to get a feel for which players dominated year-in-year out, etc. Charles Saeger has done a lot of work towards coming up with modified Win Shares for NA (and eventually all 19th Century players). The reliability of Win Shares gets shakier the further back we go in time, mainly because of the pitching and fielding differences. Charlie’s work should correct a fair amount of this error. The problem with the massive revisions is that they also require a massive effort to work their way into a spreadsheet. It’ll be worth the wait once they are done, and if we go through time season by season, that will also buy us a little bit of time to get the spreadsheet revised and do some testing before presenting the NA numbers. We’re not saying WS are the be all and end all. But Charlie’s revised numbers will be a very good guide for an era where we don’t have much to go on. Let me know what you think of the season-by-season approach. Assuming people are in favor of it, I should be able to get the 1871 NA up tonight. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head
Posted: January 13, 2003 at 02:53 PM | 11 comment(s)
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