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Dialed In — Monday, October 23, 20062006 American League Gold Glove Winners - As I see itDefensive data has been and is being refined pretty well these days. With more and more play-by-play data making it to the mainstream, all of us are stretching the boundaries of what we require from black-box analysts. With the exception of some park factors, we are discovering that Zone Rating provides a pretty good picture of defense. Taking the zone rating and accounting for league averages, based on tens of thousands of defensive innings played, we can closely assess the number of runs saved by a defensive players as compared to his peers.
To be sure, even this data could be refined to account for parks better - Fenway’s Green Monster is a tremendous issue - and handedness of batters - NOT handedness of pitchers - to tune the picture a bit better, but the data you will read will be very close to any refined data. Very close. The basic methodology for this work is here.
I have tweaked this for chances per inning from the original data, so the chances assumed here may be slightly higher/lower, but if you did the same work from the referenced article, you’d find your results would be within a run or two of what I post. And really, the most important thing I do here is provide you with the tools to evaluate defense on your own, without me doing the math. Please note, after this article, I will post some others’ work that even refines what I have done, with a comparison to what I have done. It should be exciting for you - it is for me. Most importantly, it broadens the network of individuals accurately creating the defensive evaluations, as well as allows for everyday updates. Yes, I said *every day*.
Now on with the show. Here are the leaders and trailers at every position for the American League, with some commentary where necessary. In general I draw the Gold Glove qualification line at a significant number of innings - usually around 650. It would be unusual for someone playing only 650 innings to lead the league in anything, but I’m willing to give it a look.
Catcher First LastName Team GP INN RSpt RS/150 Ivan Rodriguz Det 123 1054.3 9 11 Ramon Hernandz Bal 135 1094.3 6 8 Joe Mauer Min 120 1059.3 4 5 Jorge Posada NYY 134 1050.3 4 5 Jose Molina LAA 76 603.3 3 7 Kenji Johjima Sea 144 1173.7 2 3 John Buck KC 112 930.3 2 3 Jason Kendall Oak 141 1254.0 2 2 Rod Barajas Tex 94 825.0 1 1 Mike Napoli LAA 94 716.3 0 1 Jason Varitek Bos 99 822.3 -2 -2 A.J. Przynski CWS 132 1125.0 -5 -6 Bengie Molina Tor 99 842.0 -6 -10 Victor Martinez Cle 133 1110.0 -8 -10 Wow, Ivan Rodriguez is the best defensive catcher in the AL. Who knew? Mostly there is very little difference between catchers in preventing runs via CS, PB, WP and E. I-Rod stands out, but mostly, nearly every catcher is the same, give or take a game with a knuckleballer.
First Base First LastName TEAM GP INN RSpt RS/150 Chris Shelton Det 115 913.0 12 17 Doug Mntkwicz KC 90 725.7 7 12 Justin Morneau Min 153 1346.3 4 4 Andy Phillips NYY 94 533.0 3 8 Travis Lee TB 112 865.7 3 5 Mark Teixeira Tex 159 1399.0 2 2 Dan Johnson Oak 85 715.7 1 2 Lyle Overbay Tor 145 1233.0 0 0 Kevin Youkilis Bos 127 1030.0 -1 -2 Nick Swisher Oak 90 700.0 -2 -5 Ben Broussrd Cle/Sea 90 642.7 -2 -5 Kevin Millar Bal 98 792.3 -3 -5 Richie Sexson Sea 150 1310.3 -6 -6 Paul Konerko CWS 140 1182.7 -8 -9 Jason Giambi NYY 68 480.0 -8 -23 Shelton only got about 50 more innings as the season drew to a close, but he was outstanding with his glove. These leaders didn’t change since August, though. Again, notice there is very little variation between defensive runs. From Morneau to Millar, these guys are about the same. Giambi didn’t really qualify for this list, but he was pretty bad, so I thought I’d illustrate his need to DH.
Second Base First LastName TEAM GP INN RSpt RS/150 Aaron Hill Tor 112 912.0 16 24 Placido Polanco Det 108 943.0 14 21 Mark Grudzlnk KC 132 1111.0 7 9 Mark Ellis Oak 123 1070.0 7 8 Brian Roberts Bal 137 1168.7 6 7 Jose Lopez Sea 150 1322.0 2 2 TadahitoIguchi CWS 136 1209.3 1 1 RobinsonCano NYY 118 1009.0 1 1 Luis Castillo Min 142 1239.3 -2 -2 Ian Kinsler Tex 119 1032.0 -3 -3 Adam Kennedy LAA 133 1141.7 -6 -7 Mark Loretta Bos 138 1172.0 -6 -7 Ronnie Belliard Cle 91 768.3 -9 -17 Jorge Cantu TB 103 899.7 -22 -33 Aaron Hill? Maybe the turf in Toronto helps, considering Orlando Hudson’s slide in Arizona. Placido Polanco - he’s good. Well, he has been. Jorge Cantu is the worst fielder in the majors. He’s bad all over the field.
Third Base First LastName TEAM GP INN RSpt RS/150 Brandon Inge Det 159 1392.0 20 20 Mike Lowell Bos 153 1299.7 14 15 Adrian Beltre Sea 155 1358.0 11 11 Joe Crede CWS 149 1260.0 8 8 Nick Punto Min 89 766.0 8 13 Hank Blalock Tex 122 1063.7 1 1 Eric Chavez Oak 134 1166.7 0 0 Maicer Izturis LAA 87 707.3 -3 -7 Aaron Boone Cle 101 842.0 -4 -7 Melvin Mora Bal 154 1323.0 -4 -5 Troy Glaus Tor 145 1175.0 -7 -8 Mark Teahen KC 109 924.7 -7 -10 Alex Rodriguz NYY 151 1288.7 -8 -8 Over the last two months of the season, the BIP distribution tweaked the third base rankings. A-Rod improved over his last 200 innings and Brandon Inge caught and moved well up on Mike Lowell. Lowell still finished with a fine season, and Adrain Beltre had a great showing. Beltre also hit a little this year, so he may not be the worst signing ever. We’ll look at A-Rod as a total package during the MVP discussions.
Shortstop First LastName TEAM GP INN RSpt RS/150 Juan Uribe CWS 132 1130.0 14 16 Alex Gonzalez Bos 111 966.3 10 14 Jason Bartlett Min 99 880.7 10 15 Bobby Crosby Oak 95 828.0 7 11 Michael Young Tex 155 1356.3 4 4 Carlos Guillen Det 145 1235.0 2 3 Julio Lugo TB 73 620.3 1 2 John McDonald Tor 90 662.7 1 1 Miguel Tejada Bal 150 1294.7 0 0 Orlando Cabrera LAA 152 1321.7 -3 -3 Jhonny Peralta Cle 147 1275.3 -3 -3 Derek Jeter NYY 150 1292.3 -5 -6 YunieskyBetancourt Sea 157 1374.3 -7 -7 Angel Berroa KC 131 1117.3 -11 -13 White Sox fans have been wanting to see Uribe at the top of the list. He’s made it. Derek Jeter, who is a great bet to win the MVP, has seen his defensive numbers slide from the last two seasons. Jeter, while not good, wasn’t too bad, and I would describe him as “slightly below average”. Only Berroa stands out negatively. Michael Young’s defense really jumped from last season. That’s odd, but it could be he worked on it.
Left Field First LastName TEAM GP INN RSpt RS/150 Emil Brown KC 87 719.3 9 17 Carl Crawford TB 148 1252.3 8 8 Scott Podsednk CWS 135 1087.7 7 9 Reed Johnson Tor 100 635.3 5 11 Raul Ibanez Sea 157 1397.7 4 4 Nick Swisher Oak 79 655.7 4 8 Jason Michaels Cle 117 1009.3 3 5 Craig Monroe Det 113 927.3 1 2 Garret Anderson LAA 94 813.7 -1 -1 Frank Catlnotto Tor 101 760.0 -2 -4 Brad Wilkerson Tex 80 664.3 -5 -9 Melky Cabrera NYY 116 999.7 -6 -9 Manny Ramirez Bos 123 1031.3 -32 -42 This offseason, I am going to try to solve the Fenway park factor. We’ve seen good new research from other people, and I hope to establish a PF for Manny. The more I read, the more I think Manny may be *average* on defense. I know, I need to give some demonstration for that. Otherwise, it is a tight group. Carl Crawford could get a Gold Glove. Well, he might if they awarded the GGs for each position, rather than “Outfield”.
Center Field First LastName TEAM GP INN RSpt RS/150 Corey Patterson Bal 134 1079.7 16 20 Vernon Wells Tor 150 1290.3 12 13 Grady Sizemore Cle 160 1379.3 7 6 Curtis Grndersn Det 157 1312.0 5 6 Johnny Damon NYY 131 1087.7 4 5 Brian Anderson CWS 134 966.0 3 5 Chone Figgins LAA 96 829.0 3 5 Rocco Baldelli TB 91 749.3 0 0 Torii Hunter Min 143 1232.3 0 0 Joey Gathright KC/TB 130 1017.7 -2 -3 Mark Kotsay Oak 127 1047.0 -5 -6 Gary Matthews Tex 142 1227.0 -8 -9 Coco Crisp Bos 103 901.7 -8 -13 Corey Patterson in climbing the charts as one of the top defensive CFs over the last 20 years. All of these guys can run down fly balls. Torii Hunter dropped significantly the last two months - was he injured? Could that have led to the ITPHR in the ALDS?
Right Field First LastName TEAM GP INN RSpt RS/150 Alex Rios Tor 124 953.0 11 16 Milton Bradley Oak 94 803.7 7 12 Ichiro Suzuki Sea 121 1062.7 7 9 Reggie Sanders KC 73 601.0 6 14 Casey Blake Cle 93 814.3 4 7 Damon Hollins TB 78 464.7 3 7 Mark DeRosa Tex 60 512.0 2 6 Trot Nixon Bos 110 891.3 0 1 Nick Markakis Bal 127 917.3 -2 -3 JermaineDye CWS 146 1245.0 -2 -2 Magglio Ordonez Det 148 1268.0 -2 -2 Bobby Abreu NYY 57 447.0 -5 -15 VladimirGuerrero LAA 126 1090.0 -5 -7 Kevin Mench Tex 57 489.7 -6 -16 Bernie Williams NYY 58 425.3 -7 -22 Michael Cuddyer Min 142 1227.3 -7 -8 Alex Rios is a pretty good fielder. However, coupled with his very good defensive work in centerfield, I think Ichiro Suzuki should win the Gold Glove. Pattersona dn Wells should win the other two, but I doubt Patterson will. +/-7 runs is a tight group around average. And again, I added two Yankees to the list that I may not have otehrwise. The Yankees are really struggling in the outfield defensively, and could find that to be a big reason why they couldn’t beat the Tigers. My Gold Gloves? Rodriguez, Shelton, Polanco, Inge, Uribe, Crawford, Patterson, Suzuki. That’s a bunch of Tigers. Is it really any wonder they led the majors in ERA? It wasn’t all the pitching. |
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Which way did they go?
I don't know of pbp based data that indicates Betancourt is a good fielder. He's slightly below average, which may well be attributed to his expeience in the majors.
As for Young, players have good seasons. Sometimes with the bat; sometimes with the glove.
This is either a case where the pbp systems are wrong (though I don't know why they would be) or Betencourt just looks like a better fielder than he really is.
The player that surprised me the most when I went over 2006 data was Emil Brown. He did excellent in LF and RF, but isn't he supposed to look awful out there? IIRC, he's done very well in other years, too.
Well of course one year of data, especially fielding, can be very flukey, and I'd say it's at least twice as likely for a 1B.
To some extent, yes, but when you're talking range, the limit will typically be quite small unless the player has some sort of eye problem. It's not like hitting where you may get your swing out of whack or see an inordinate # of great curveballs, or hit a bunch of line drives right at people. Range is a singular ability to recognize the direction and speed of balls off the bat and get yourself in position to field them. It shouldn't vary a lot. Unless you factor in positioning...but that is almost certainly a function of management, not the player and really shouldn't be a source of credit to the player himself. And certainly those of us who've played have all had good years in terms of errors and bad years as well.
1B:
Johnson +1
Kotsay -1
Swisher -3
2B:
Ellis +7
Scutaro +5
Perez -1
3B:
Chavez -1
Perez -0
Scutaro +0
SS:
Crosby +7
Scutaro - 4
Jimenez -1
I don't think that's true at all. For instance, Tony La Russa hasn't ordered Ronnie Belliard to play short right field or Jim Edmonds rover camped behind second base.
Not just positioning, but adapting to the different sight and sound cues that you have in the majors. The stands are higher and the crowds are louder. It takes a while to hone your reactions to the new environment.
-- MWE
Emil Brown - I think his deal was (don't know about now) that he takes funny routes to the ball, occasionally really bad ones, but eventually gets to most the balls he needs to. See Matt Diaz.
I think "one year of data, especially fielding, can be very flukey" outweighs "but when you're talking range, the limit will typically be quite small". Smaller sample sizes (especially at first, as Kyle notes) and a more heterogenous set of opportunities.
****
Did anyone catch Steve Phillips' all Web Gem team (not the best play of the year by position, Kruk mishandled that - but either the guy who either made the most great plays or was the best fielder, not sure which one he meant). It included:
C Yadier Molina (NL)1B Nick Swisher Oak 90 700.0 -2 -5
2B Ronnie Belliard Cle 91 768.3 -9 -17
3B Brandon Inge Det 159 1392.0 20 20
SS Derek Jeter NYY 150 1292.3 -5 -6
LF Raul Ibanez Sea 157 1397.7 4 4 (not sure it was Ibanez, think it was)
CF Gary Matthews Tex 142 1227.0 -8 -9
RF Ryan Freel (NL)
P Kenny Rogers
Yuck.
Assuming I did the math right, here's how it works out on a team-by-team basis (for multiteam players, I divvy their total up on a % of where they played, rounded to the nearest integer):
1. Tigers +61
2. Blue Jays +30
3. A's +21
4. Orioles +19
5. White Sox +18
6. Twins +17
7. Royals +12
8. Mariners +8
9. Rangers +2
10. Rays -8
11. Indians -11
12. Angels -12
13. Red Sox -25
14. Yanks -27
Overall, that's +108 runs. I guess the backups & pitchers weren't as good fielders. Wasn't it just last year the Indians were #1 in all baseball?
This may cool Garth Sears' enthusiasm about Teahen moving to shortstop.
From my observation, I think *average* is pretty unlikely. Manny is slow, takes bad routes, and doesn't have a good first step. I think his positioning is pretty good, but I doubt that's enough to make up for the other demerits. The question to me is whether Manny is merely a bad defender among many in baseball, or a near Jeremy Giambi, worst outfielder ever type. But who knows - Yuniesky Betancourt looks frickin' brilliant out there to me, too.
I love watching chunky guys play the infield. That Uribe is so good just makes it better. I'll always remember that chop over the mound in the WS...what a play that was.
Here are the full team by team totals.
TM RS
Det 69
Oak 19
Min 18
Bal 14
KC 13
Tor 13
Sea 6
CWS 5
LAA -8
Tex -17
Cle -25
NYY -26
TB -38
Bos -43
AL 0
This doesn't include the Manny/Fenway park factor, which looks to be on the order of 15 runs per season.
I'm not Chris, but these should be close.
Russ Adams:
2B: RSpt:-5, RS/162: -22
SS: RSpt:+2, RS/162: +9
Rob Mackowiak drains half the surplus by himself.
If you don't mind, I'd like to link to your work and quote your figures on my blog. Thanks in advance.
The problem is, no one has really tracked Home/Road splits unless you want to play for PBP data. Joe Arther did it this year, and we're going to try and do it going forward.
Chone Smith did some work on the Fenway factor here.
With the zone rating data we have going back to 1987, Fenway LF averaged -20. There's definitely a significant park factor there.
yes, link/quote away.
Numbers produced by SG in ATL, Anaheim Rallymonkey and Kyle C (Melky) have full endorsement from me. They are largely to whom I refer in hte first paragraph, and I will be doing a comparison of the varying data-pulls and methodology tweaks.
I have a terrible work day today and tomorrow, so please be patient with my answering your questions.
Thanks.
Vince, I tracked ZR weekly this season, here's where Anderson was at the end of each week.
Week RSpt RS/1628-Apr 0 9
15-Apr 0 -4
22-Apr 1 14
29-Apr 1 13
6-May 1 8
13-May 1 5
20-May 2 12
27-May 2 10
3-Jun 3 12
10-Jun 4 17
17-Jun 6 21
24-Jun 5 17
1-Jul 5 17
9-Jul 6 18
23-Jul 5 12
29-Jul 5 13
5-Aug 4 10
12-Aug 5 10
19-Aug 5 10
26-Aug 5 9
2-Sep 4 8
9-Sep 4 6
16-Sep 3 6
23-Sep 3 5
30-Sep 3 5
If you want a more detailed spreadsheet, let me know.
I find it difficult to believe that Scott Podsednik was an above-average fielder last year.
That 15 is an average comparing how players play with the Red Sox vs how they did as left fielders for other teams, going back to 1987. I would trust that figure more for multiyear data (such as my projections) than for single year data. In any given year that +15 might be +5, +25, or whatever, depending on how many balls are banged off the wall.
Apr 1 - July 9, 479 innings, 7 plays made above average, RSpt of 6.
July 10 - October 1, 487 innings, 3 plays made below average, RSpt of around -3.
I posted the breakdown here if you want it.
Chris Shelton is not a good fielder. He's slow, he doesn't stretch for balls that are thrown to him, he has little mobility. If it is hit right at him, he can field it. He's adequate at 1b. Not a gold glover.
I know that the sample of data is pretty small for parts of a season, especially for a player who was being platooned, but still, it seems like too great of a coincidence that these things match up so well.
At first blush, one might assume the first is (WAY!) better, but the second puts Crisp in his best position and may put Pena in his best position (aside from DH). How do the numbers shake out?
I'm interested by Ronnie Belliard. He looks like crap out there to me, but then he'll suddenly make an unbelievable play. And he has a good defensive reputation, which I trust much more than my own lying eyes. ZR sides with my "looks like crap" position, but he does seem to position himself strangely. Is it possible that his positioning is what's making his ZR look bad? Or should I just have more faith in myself?
All Twins shortstops score suspiciously high. I'd be willing to bet that there's a strong turf effect.
Agreed. He had an amazing catch in the NLCS, that should count for something.
That didn't help Guzman when he was there.
While I love the work, these are the kinds of judgments we need to be very careful about making. All the pbp defensive metrics are still value statistics, judging what a player accomplished retroactively. We're all very willing to accept that ERA is not a very good indicator of how talented a pitcher is at preventing runs, but is a good indicator of how many runs he actually saved his team in the past.
Dial and Tango have both been saying for years that we need at least two full seasons of data, and preferably more, before we start to evaluate a player's abilities based on the performance. For Betancourt, we now have about a year and a half of data, which still falls short of the minimum that Tango and Dial have stated they want.
This information, combined with the agreement from most other systems, essentially tells us that the Mariners haven't saved that many runs due to balls in play turned into outs by Betancourt in the past year. What it does not say, however, is that Betancourt lacks some fundamental skill necessary to be a good defensive shortstop, just like a pitcher's ERA does not tell us how good a pitcher actually is or is not.
It's a value stat, not a talent evaluation stat. There's certainly usefulness in both kinds of statistics, but we need to be careful that we don't make premature talent evaluation judgments based on value statistics. It's possible, and maybe even probable, that Betancourt is a supremely talented defensive shortstop whose actual value was reduced by circumstances outside his own control. Without at least another year of data, we can't use these numbers to make a talent evaluation judgment, especially one that flies in the face of observational analysis.
For Betancourt, we now have about a year and a half of data, which still falls short of the minimum that Tango and Dial have stated they want.
I tried to make some statement to that in my first post (#9). I think he needs seasoning. I also think Mike Emeigh makes a good ob. He has plenty of time to become everything. Juan Uribe struggled at first, and he's at the top.
Interesting question. Here are the career R/162 for each player at the positions listed.
Pena, RF: -10
Pena, CF: +2
Pena, LF: -24
Crisp, CF: -11
Crisp, LF: -15
Manny, RF: +2
Manny, LF: -29
There are major sample size issues here so keep that in mind. Pena's played just 970 innings in CF, 248 in LF, and 1131 in RF to this point in his career. Manny hasn't been a full-time RF since 1999. If Chone's -15 Fenway park factor estimate is true, Manny's probably a -10 to -15 fielder, which seems more reasonable. You then have to factor in aging and regression and what have you.
It's very possible. ZR only looks at balls that are considered playable (ie converted into outs at least 50% of the time). It does not take positioning into account, which is one of the big flaws with it.
CF: RSpt: 2, RS/162: 8
LF: RSpt:-6, RS/162: -18
RF: RSpt: 1, RS/162: 2
that's against average. It's not just how Peralta played, but how others played as well. Tha's all part of "chances evening out due to sample size increase".
Manny, LF: "-15"
Crisp, CF: -11
Pena, RF: -10
Total: -36
Option 2:
Crisp, LF: +15
Pena, CF: +2
Ramirez, RF: "??"
Total: +17 + ??
I know that Ramirez was around league-average back in Cleveland, but he was younger and had not yet had as many health problems. I'd assume that Ramirez in right would be worse than Ramirez in left, but if the other numbers are right (a HUGE assumption, obviously), then he'd have to be a -53 in right in order to make option 2 as bad as option 1!
Now, obviously, a LOT of unwarranted assumptions are going into this, but we can play with them, of course.
For instance, let's assume Pena is better in center than he is in right, but not bettern relative to his better-fielding peers in center. Let's call him a -10 in center. That still would mean that Ramirez would have to be a -41 in right in order for option 2 to be as bad as option 1!
Let's further assume that Crisp would not be as good in left for the Red Sox as he was in Cleveland. let's call him a +0 in left and Pena a -10 in center. Ramirez would STILL need to be a -26 in right in order for option 2 to be as bad as option 1! We're now in the realm of possibility, I suppose, but that's assuming Ramirez is absolutely horrific in right, roughly 20% worse than Bernie Williams, a bad center fielder with no arm playing an unfamiliar position.
I know that the error bars on all this are so wide that drawing conclusions like I am is foolish. Still, I'm saddened by the idea that although it's possible that the Sox could be 20 runs better defensively in the outfield by simply moving guys to positions in which two of them seem to be more comfortable, such a realignment would never ever be considered at the major league level because of a fear of upsetting the status quo, whose upholding would seem to have virtually no merit, both from observation and the numbers.
Oh well.
Right, but the other AL SS remained pretty consistent from the last time you ran the numbers. Peralta had a defensive collapse in September. However, Andy Marte made the scene and in a limited number of innings (428.7, put up a ZR of .816, which is very good. Yes, it is a ridiculous sample size that we really should not touch, but it a glaring contrast to what Peralta was playing next to with Boone. Boone had a .743 ZR. Marte had a frequency of BIZ/IP of .369; Boone .305.
Unless the Indians' pitching tendencies changed radically in a month (something that is possible wit this type of sample size), Marte's frequency indicates that he was getting to a lot of balls out of his zones (about 28) -- perhaps balls that Peralta had been turning into outs before Marte arrived. Whatever outs Marte made certainly didn't significantly altar Peralta's ZR, but having a mobile third baseman suddenly coming in from Peralta's right probably screwed with his head and his positioning, which only increased Peralta's collapse. That certainly doesn't exonerate Peralta, but with more playing time with Marte, his ZR should be better next year.
I'm almost certain Marlins' LF and Houston's LF have significant park factors, too.
I took out my arm rankings for this:
1999:
RF: +1 and +1.3 per 150
2000:
RF: -6 and -13 per 150
I can't remember it, but I'm certain he was injured as he only played 93 games in the field that year. I haven't done any years before 1999 yet.
Oh, and the most shocking thing I've seen while working on the fielding data is Mo Vaughn played about an inning of CF. Mo Vaughn.
You're of course right, David. I was mistaken though, in thinking he had two full seasons of data, but even still you would generally want three if you can get it, and I would say even more for a young fielder for the reasons Mike lays out.
Also, if anybody wants to, you could use my worksheets to look at fielding at each position by age. It could be interesting to look at aging patterns there and see if it agrees with what mgl has found.
As far as Manny goes, I posted season ending 2006 splits and some comments here.
I was using ESPN data for 2000 and noticed it, thought for sure it was a mistake but saw him on BBRef, too. If I were the player manager on the last game of the season I'd do all kinds of crazy stuff like that if the game didn't matter at all. C'mon, who wouldn't love seeing Jason Giambi pitch or play CF?
the likeliest explanation is that Vaughn for some reason was re-positioned behind second base in a 5 man infield game in which Erstad or Anderson went to first. According to retrosheet, the 5/27 game ended on a sacrifice fly "to first" ...
RE: Shelton... Could his rating be skewed do to the number of assists he has? Harrelson was always ragging on him for making the pitcher run to first base on plays that he should have made unassisted.
RE: Podsednik... You can't convince me that he's a plus defensive player in LF. He might have range thanks to his speed, but he's often lost on balls in the air, is surprisingly slow getting to balls hit on the ground and balls in the gap, and can't limit anyone from going from first to third on singles in the hole.
No. This rating doesn't consider whether the 1B took the ball to first himself or flipped to the pitcher. That doesn't matter - just that an out was recorded. That's one of the significant advantages a pbp-based method has over traditional stats (at every defensive position).
RE: Podsednik... You can't convince me...
Well, then...
Another explanation would be that Peralta was turing balls in Boone's zone(s) into outs.
RE: Podsednik... You can't convince me that he's a plus defensive player in LF.
I'm easily convinced if we're comparing him to other LFs; those guys are not usually good fielders. I'd be chary of saying so if he were being compared to all OFs.
I'm easily convinced if we're comparing him to other LFs; those guys are not usually good fielders. I'd be chary of saying so if he were being compared to all OFs.
I agree and I think the reverse goes for Betancourt. He can look like a tremendous defensive player and play like a tremendous player and still have a negative ZR - shortstops are a really tremendous group of defensive players. The + or - here doesn't encompass the entirety of defensive value, it's just that we typically included a very large chunk of it in offensive value already.
While possible, it is more likely (in my experience) that it was just BIP distribution. It's not likely Peralta was turning Boone's balls into outs. It is possible that balls were cutoff in front of Peralta, but those wouldn't cont against him, so much as not count for him, and that's not likely to be a signifcant number. Did Peralta's errors go up in hte last month?
It's the five-man infield. Scioscia is/was big on that. I think some sources might have Adam Kennedy has having an inning or something in center, as well. But not everyone scores the five-man infield the same way.
Benji Gil gets one-third in 2001, Jose Nieves gets an inning in 2002 (though that may have just been him in CF for some reason, I don't even remember Jose Nieves), and Maicer Izturis two-thirds in 2005.
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One thing to keep in mind about Fenway is that although the playing field is essentially unchanged for decades, the owners have tinkered with the seating structure over time, and there have been claims that this effects how well the ball carries.
Chris - as far as your gold gloves go, I don't see enough of Detroit to have any idea, but I would wonder if there is some infield park effect at Comerica (e.g. long grass - making it generally easier to field ground balls) which explains why Detroit infielders did so well. Of course they won a lot of games, they do have to be above average at some things, and infield defense could be it. I actually do have the raw data for 2006 to address this question, but I do have to do a lot of work to cross reference data from multiple sources.
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he's good - that's about where i expected him to rank.
Want help, or is it not-sharable?
While this is possible I'd have to see Detroit do this for more than one year before I suspect the park is doing it. It doesn't seem like the Tiger hitters had as much trouble getting their hits to fall in as opponents have. I think they're just the latest team to play over their head on defense for a year, like the 2001 Mariners, 2002 Angels, 2005 White Sox, etc.
Detroit infield:
Shelton: probably a fluke
Polanco: Great fielder, does this every year
Guillen: about average
Inge: Good fielder having a career year with the glove.
I'm almost certain Marlins' LF and Houston's LF have significant park factors, too.
I have one for Houston LF, its bigger than Fenway (-20) but sample is smaller and I'm not sure I trust it being that large. Marlin's LF is another good one to check.
How many times in the history of baseball has a catcher converted to another position and been really, really good at it? Are Inge and Biggio it?
Inge was a shortstop in college and was converted to catcher by the Tigers, so really was going back to the infield.
I guess Scott Hatteberg, according to the A's anyway.
Troy Percival ;-)
Gil Hodges was probably a Gold Glove caliber first baseman. There's the Peerless Leader as well; Tom Daly, who is the other guy in the Biggio trivia question ("Who are the only players to successfully convert from catcher to second base?"), although he wasn't "really, really good"; Roger Bresnahan had a great year in center field. And, of course, Todd Hundley was the greatest left fielder in the history of the game.
http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/
How many times in the history of baseball has a catcher converted to another position and been really, really good at it?
Brian Downing. He was a very good left fielder even beyond the errorless streaks. He made up for lack of speed with all out hustle and making friends with walls.
That's weird, isn't it?
Gil Hodges was a good one.
I thought of Downing and should've mentioned him, but wasn't he kind of overrated, i.e., probably better than Charlie Moore, but not much?
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