User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 1.4987 seconds
63 querie(s) executed
Dialed In — Monday, February 18, 20082007 Team DefenseThere is no “team” offense. Yes, there are bunts and hit-and-runs, but that’s a small part of offense. There are mostly individual acts of hitting, representing upwards of 95% of a player’s offensive contributions. You very rarely hear that a team plays good team offense. You will see cumulative team stats, but most analysts have no problem reading a team line as the sum of its parts. Sadly that type of understanding isn’t true about defense. There is very little “team” in defense. Yes, there are double plays and proper relays, but that’s a small part of defense. There are mostly individual acts of fielding that represent upwards of 95% of a player’s defensive contributions. We’re going to set aside the pitcher’s component of a batted ball, and the ease with which it is turned into outs. That’s a separate piece. So which teams performed best defensively, and how much they could improve, or where they are giving away runs. Here’s a look at the 2007 American League. Team 1B DRS 2B DRS 3B DRS SS DRS LF DRS CF DRS RF DRS C DRS DRS SUM TOR 0 12 -13 27 12 8 0 -12 35 BAL -4 -1 0 16 -2 1 -5 -5 -1 BOS 2 5 5 2 -36 5 -8 -3 -27 NYY -6 8 1 -22 -7 5 0 -4 -24 TB -8 -15 -2 -24 14 -15 -2 1 -50 DET 12 -1 19 -7 9 4 17 3 54 KC 10 -7 -4 6 3 2 4 2 18 CLE -2 -3 -7 -9 -1 12 14 7 11 MIN 2 -8 -1 7 5 3 -16 11 3 CWS 1 -11 -11 1 9 7 -2 -6 -11 OAK -1 24 11 9 5 -7 10 -5 45 LAA 11 5 -2 3 7 -15 2 -4 6 TEX -4 -11 3 -5 6 -4 9 3 -3 SEA -15 3 1 -4 -25 -8 -21 12 -57 Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Max 12 24 19 27 14 12 17 12 54 Min -15 -15 -13 -24 -36 -15 -21 -12 -57 Range 26 39 31 50 50 27 38 23 111 Let’s start by tempering the Boston LF number. Analyses have indicated this number is about –16, rather than –36, moving the Red Sox defensive score to –4 DRS. In addition to having a good hitting year, the Sox also were a solid defensive team, and that certainly helps in close games. In the AL East, Toronto is the defensive leader. If they can learn to hit more, they can step forward. Even with Boston and the Yankees giving away five wins to the Jays, they stay on top. The Devil Rays are predicted to be better, but they have to catch the ball first. Imagine Kazmir with a good defense behind him. The Tigers defense has been solid for several years, and I suppose they decided it could handle Miguel Cabrera. With the significant gap between the Tigers defense and the Indians’, I suspect the Tigers will be well off. With Santana leaving Minnesota, I can’t imagine they, nor the ChiSox and Royals will be contenders. Team 1B DRS 2B DRS 3B DRS SS DRS LF DRS CF DRS RF DRS C DRS DRS SUM PHI -13 20 -1 -2 -5 3 13 8 23 NYM -1 -4 1 15 -4 12 2 -2 20 ATL 3 -6 9 -9 8 -3 0 -1 -1 WAS -14 1 13 -14 -2 1 7 6 -2 FLA -1 -18 -28 -13 -11 -5 8 -1 -70 STL 12 5 24 -10 -2 -6 -7 8 25 CHC -1 13 3 1 3 9 0 -8 21 CIN 8 1 -1 0 -3 1 -2 1 7 PIT 9 -14 -10 -6 -2 16 -11 -1 -19 MIL -8 -12 -5 -10 3 -14 0 -2 -48 HOU -5 -7 -16 -1 -23 -5 -6 2 -61 SF 10 -6 26 25 -9 -4 -6 2 36 COL 10 19 -14 16 14 -8 -6 -2 30 SD 1 9 2 9 15 -1 4 -22 17 ARI -3 4 -2 -9 12 2 6 6 15 LAD -7 -8 -1 8 7 2 1 6 8 Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Max 12 20 26 25 15 16 13 8 36 Min -14 -18 -28 -14 -23 -14 -11 -22 -70 Range 26 38 54 38 38 30 23 30 107 The Marlins are a terrible defensive team. They improved defensively this off-season by trading away Cabrera. He’s remarkably terrible. Hanley Ramirez is a terrific hitter thus far, but he’s not good with the glove. Dan Uggla is a powerful hitting second baseman, but can’t turn batted balls into outs. Like their Florida brethren, until they field better, they aren’t going to be terribly competitive. The Cubs have been picked to win the Central, and their solid defense will be a big part of that. The Astros are bad, and didn’t keep Adam Everett. The Brewers defense is very weak, and from good hitters, which means they will continue to threaten to challenge, rather than challenge. The NL West has all solid fielding teams. The good defense for the Rockies helped push them ahead of their division opponents. The Padres could have won with any decent amout of catching. Giving up doubles on walks is a terrible way to try to win. Overall, American League teams are more willing to swap offense for defense at shortstop, and National League teams swap at third base. Overall, it looks like centerfield is the location where teams agree on the required skill set, as it shows the lowest variation to chances.
|
BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot TopicsSteve Austin is not a Baseball Player
(159 - 12:27am, Jul 07) Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter) Defensive Replacement Level Defined (41 - 1:20pm, Mar 14) Last: Foghorn Leghorn Reconciliation - Getting Defensive Stats and Statheads Back Together (30 - 1:42pm, Apr 28) Last: GuyM Handicapping the NL East (77 - 2:02pm, Oct 15) Last: The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Landing Buerhle a Great Move (79 - 8:43am, Feb 04) Last: Foghorn Leghorn Weekly DRS Update (Defensive Stats Thru July 19, 2010) (3 - 2:47pm, Sep 27) Last: Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! You Have Got To Be Kidding Me (8 - 3:52am, May 01) Last: Harris Weekly DRS Update (Defensive Stats Thru July 4, 2010) (2 - 4:05pm, Jul 11) Last: NewGrass Weekly DRS Update (Defensive Stats Thru Jun 29, 2010) (5 - 12:47pm, Jul 04) Last: Harveys Wallbangers Weekly DRS Update (Defensive Stats Thru Jun 13, 2010) (15 - 1:51am, Jun 16) Last: Chris Dial Weekly DRS Update (Defensive Stats through games of June 6, 2010) (17 - 7:08pm, Jun 14) Last: Foghorn Leghorn Daily Dose of Defense (41 - 8:31pm, Jun 04) Last: Tango 2009 NL OPD (Offense Plus Defense) (37 - 11:22pm, Feb 17) Last: Foghorn Leghorn NOT authorized by Major League Baseball or its Member Teams (40 - 7:32pm, Feb 16) Last: GregQ 2009 AL OPD (Offense Plus Defense) (35 - 9:05pm, Jan 05) Last: Foghorn Leghorn Syndicate |
|||||||
|
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2021 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
| | ||||||
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Dag Nabbit: Sockless Psychopath Posted: February 18, 2008 at 04:43 AM (#2693437)Yes, I often hear about baseball player X being a great team defender.
I think this is semantic. Sure, the phrase "team offense" is rarely used, but so what? "Team defense" is just a catchphrase for referring to the overall defensive quality of a team, and certainly people also discuss the overall offensive quality of teams.
Counsell and Graffanino combined for a little over 1/3 of innings at 3B. -5 might be a little better than they actually were, but it's probably not off by that much.
Here's what (I think): People think of offense of individuals first, then the team. People think of team defense first and then the individuals. I'd like the order of that changed.
I completely agree that the Brewers' defense is an Achilles Heel, but this is an awfully strong statement. There are prospects for moderate improvement (Mike Cameron + dead cat bounce + Melvin is aware it is a big problem).
Cameron to CF, Hall to 3B, Braun to LF should do a lot to improve the defense.
If Cameron stays healthy.
Cincinnati's pitchers were *really* bad last year - they had a decent defense behind them, they walked the second-fewest number of batters in the NL, and they *still* allowed more runs than anyone but the Marlins.
-- MWE
If it makes you feel better, I don't think that is true, or at least the "people" you refer to are few in number. In other sports, yes, but I can't remember the last time someone explained to me about a good "team defense" aside from saying simply that they have a lot of good defensive players.
I do also have a question about how positioning and pitcher tendencies are accounted for in these stats.
Take the Phillies for example. It is just hard to imagine, based on watching Utley and Rollins over several years that Utley is a 3-win plus defender while Rollins is actually a negative. Considering they play next to one another, I wonder if there is something with the way the Phillies position the infield, or in the tendencies of their pitchers (less likely since they have had some overhaul in the past 3 years).
I'm perfectly willing to believe that Utley is an above average defender and that Rollins is not a GG caliber SS, but it is the size of the discrepancy that seems to indicate their are other factors at work aside from player skill.
That depends on whether he moves Inge off third or not. The difference defensively between Tigers 3B and Marlins 3B was almost 4 wins by itself. Cabrera's offense more than makes up for it, but I wonder if they'd be better off putting Miguel in LF.
Yes, I think the Phils made out defensively there, but offensively, it's going to kill them. Rowand had a HUGE year, and that's going away, and Feliz' offense is dropping like a stone. The park will mask some of that, and a few clutch HRs can win some games, but he's pretty awful.
Do you truly believe that there is a 40 run difference defensively between Inge and Cabrera?
It does make me feel a little better, but I disagree based on the rampant use of DER. That's not a good statistic for the reasons I wanted to make above (but may not have because I need to do more research before going fully into this claim).
Yes, I do.
Take the Phillies for example. It is just hard to imagine, based on watching Utley and Rollins over several years that Utley is a 3-win plus defender while Rollins is actually a negative. Considering they play next to one another, I wonder if there is something with the way the Phillies position the infield, or in the tendencies of their pitchers (less likely since they have had some overhaul in the past 3 years).
I'm perfectly willing to believe that Utley is an above average defender and that Rollins is not a GG caliber SS, but it is the size of the discrepancy that seems to indicate their are other factors at work aside from player skill.
There are probably instances where positioning matters. SS/2B are too far apart for that to be the factor. Rollins is about average, and Utley is a stud. That's a real difference. Adding Feliz *may* impact Rollins rating, but only wrt cutting off balls near the hole. Not much, but you could see a 3-5 play bump in Rollins rating - but that's because Feliz isn't "average"; he's outstanding, and it would take a great palyer like that on the same side of the infield to make those small impacts.
You are missing that I made an error. I wrote that, then realized I hadn't included catchers, and so my math was off.
Sorry about that.
Yes, the other teams in the AL would tweak.
Rowand did have a very good offensive year, but that's not the question going forward. The question is, will he do it again? I don't think so, but some might.
Why wouldn't you believe that? It looks like the best/worst range across the skill positions is in the 35-50 run range.
Inge is a great defender and Cabrera's an absolute butcher. That trade's not going to help Detroit as much as people think. I bet they wish they hadn't extended Sheff and had DH available.
Sheff should be on the bench, or playing as much left as he can, Cabrera at DH and Inge at 3B.
So Inge is better than Sheff?
I find it interesting where the advanced defensive metrics and player valuation methods are taking us.
I don't understand this. Isn't the difference between a very good and a very bad arm generally on the magnitude of the difference between a very good and a very bad baserunner (+7 runs v. -7 runs)? In the case of Francoeur or Soriano in 2007, it was more like +12. Is there some way that your system accounts for part of this, or should we add about 12 runs to ATL RF and CHC LF to be more accurate?
No, they aren't, but I'm not completely sold on significant park factor changes.
No, on average the arm differentials are muchmuch smaller (+3 to -3). I also do arm comps, but I think "baserunner holds" for OF arm are WAY too high. The baserunner and the BIP specific have much more to do with the base advancement than the arm of the OF.
I find it interesting where the advanced defensive metrics and player valuation methods are taking us.
I'm getting there....
No, I don't think he will either, and where it is relevant is in any discussion on whether or not the Phils repeat. They are going to lose 50 runs from the player changes/regression, and a that's going to be a problem.
Sheff should be on the bench, or playing as much left as he can, Cabrera at DH and Inge at 3B.
Is that Inge projection BRAA or BRAR? Brandon Inge has put up exactly one positive BRAA season in his career. If it's a BRAR, then you maybe better to use the BRAA just as DRS is essentially a measure around the median, right?
More interestingly, if it is BRAA, then it's predicting a pretty big year for Inge, with a career-high OBP (ZIPS is only .246/.319/.400), but I guess it must be BRAR.
On a related note, going by b-ref's team splits, the 2007 Padres did the worst job throwing out opposing baserunners of any of the 1,270 teams since 1957.
Yes, VORP which is above replacement. I'm not sure if they have the replacement right, I know BPro has had some issue with that. But, in any case, it looks like Sheff is only about 20 runs better than Inge offensively.
I'm not sure how to translate the RC numbers from Zips into runs above replacement, but for projections it has Inge almost exactly the same 246/319/400 vs 245/316/407, and Sheff quite a bit worse, 269/366/438 vs. 274/372/460 compared to BPro.
If the Inge/Cabrera gap really is almost 50 runs, Detroit is basically giving back Cabrera's offense on defense.
I think that depends on what's causing the higher BABIP. If balls are just being hit harder and into zones where a lower % of balls are turned into outs, the PBP systems will correct for this automatically.
If you assume that Cabrera remains that bad on defense. I think the Tigers are assuming/hoping that in a new, winning environment, Cabrera will lose weight and work more on his defense. Cutting that number to a -10 DRS or so would add a lot of value back. With Inge still on the team, they have a late inning defense replacement, as well as the ability mobe Cabrera around to LF and DH.
Or, is he? The Orioles are shown as +16 at shortstop. How much is due to him?
Even if he's -10, and Inge is +15, the team is still better with Inge in the lineup than Sheffield.
Or, how about Guillen at 3B and Cabrera at 1B?
How much of that has been abated by the humidor. There used to be a big problem with it, BUT, yes, I think hitters get better contact there.
I don't think Francouer's arm has been that high every year. I exclude it because of the reasons I already stated. I'll throw up his arm ratings later.
Cabrera is that bad at third. Inge is that good. In a straight switch, it'd be problematic. The Tigers should do as you say, with Guillen (or someone) at third and Cabrera at first.
It is, and that made it very close.
Any indication that Guillen would be able to handle third with anything around the ability that he currently handles SS? I don't see him often enough to know, but the move to 1B was more health than performance. Is his first step quick enough?
I htink so.
....... 2005 2006 .2007RS..... +5.5 +4.6 +11.9
RS/200 +12.8 +4.1 +13.4
So he was slightly below +5 in 2006. Sue me.
Mostly true for the infield, not so much for the outfield.
Balls hit in the air at Coors tend to spend less time in the air (Clay Davenport noted this a couple of years ago, if memory serves), which normally means that they're harder to catch even when they are in-zone for the outfielders. The zone conversion rates for the OFs, especially CF, are likely affected by that to some extent.
-- MWE
Yes, but how large is the factor?
But are people using DER talking about "team defense" in a way any different then when they use total runs scored to talk about "team offense?"
In both cases, I don't think most people think they are referring to a skill different from the sum of the individual players.
1. Everyone else who played the position must be as good as Carl Crawford.
2. Dunn isn't the butcher everyone thinks he is.
3. The numbers are off.
Encarnacion at 3B and Griffey in RF also played over 80% of the innings at their positions; Jr. is considered the worst in the majors at his position, and EdE is among the worst. There is no way the other positions were covered by guys good enough to make up the difference between these two and ratings above.
This is the first place I've seen Cinci's defense described as "decent".
There is no way their positions were otherwise covered by guys good enough to make up the difference between these two and ratings above.
No, in center he was.
I disagree. DER is a great statistic. It's what everything should add up to. "Everything" means more than just defensive performance. DER = defense + how hard pitchers are hit + ball distribution + ballpark effects.
I can understand that a proper defensive rating is not always going to match DER because of the other factors, but if the sum of individual defensive stats do not positively correlate with DER, then you have a useless defensive stat.
I agree with this. Unfortunately, while we have a good idea about A, B, and D, C is a near mystery, with little available info.
And without C, we struggle to move forward with DER.
NYY: -24 (PMR 62)
Tigers: 54 (PMR 21)
Mariners: -57 (PMR -2)
PMRs are in outs, not runs, so the comparison is not one to one with DRS, but I would have guessed that they should be in the same ballpark. The two systems seem to produce fairly different views of who is really good and who is really bad.
NYY: -24 (PMR 62)
Tigers: 54 (PMR 21)
Mariners: -57 (PMR -2)
PMRs are in outs, not runs, so the comparison is not one to one with DRS, but I would have guessed that they should be in the same ballpark. The two systems seem to produce fairly different views of who is really good and who is really bad.
I'd like for them to agree better. PMR uses a different base system and the same one as Dewan, and he and Dewan don't agree much, while this system and Dewan agree pretty well.
I haven't really "gotten" PMR, so I can't really address why he differs so much from my system, UZR and Dewan.
If every position gets the same # of balls, I don't see how there would be any difference.
If a real team had this situation, with CF getting more chances than corner guys, they'd move the left fielder, Darin, to center, and the centerfielder, Garret, to left. Then they'd go win their first championship in a 42 year history.
Well, it really was, when you consider the park and how hard their pitchers were hit most of the year. Encarnacion was probably the worst glove out there. Dunn's really not a horrible outfielder - like Manny, I think he gets a bit of a bad rap because the environment makes him look worse than he is.
Probably not well at all. There are different performance models underlying each system.
Pinto's model is based on how visiting team fielders do at each ballpark - or alternatively, how the home team hitters do. The problem you have with taking this approach is laid out in this Pinto article (check out Guy's comment, in particular) - if the home team hitters vary significantly in their performance from the rest of the league's hitters, that in turn will affect how the home team fielders are perceived by Pinto's system.
IMO, the biggest barrier to progress in defensive analysis is that we have no idea whether the underlying model that we use to determine baseline performance is accurate. How do we model the default expectation for the conversion rate for a Yankee shortstop given the nature and distribution of the balls put into play against the Yankees? There are problems with both the visting-team model and the all-fielders, all-teams model when there is variation in ball-in-play distribution between the baseline and the actual distribution against a particular team - but how do we model and measure the effects of that variation? Where do those effects show up?
-- MWE
Better to say "different", at this point.
-- MWE
Are there significantly more LHBs in the AL than in the NL? I note that the BIP distribution favors the 1B/2B/LF in the AL and the 3B/SS/RF in the NL. (For those that don't know, when you make an out on a FB, it tends to be to the opposite field, and most FBs are outs).
<u>AL</u>
Lefties:33348
Righties: 44844
Percentage of AB by lefties: 42.6%
<u>NL</u>
Lefties: 34996
Righties: 54558
Percentage of AB by lefties: 39.1%
I think BIP distribution in the NL is skewed by bunts. I don't know how many bunt attempts there were in each league, but there were 495 successful bunts by an AL team last year and 1045 by an NL team, in about 11,000 more AB (78K to 89K).
It ought to be possible to do ZR for pitchers only now. I'd bet the results would be interesting (though of course, sample size and all that)
It is probably best to use some combination of the two. It is difficult to account for park factors in defence evaluation, and the "smoothed visiting player" model is one good way to do it. As Mike Emeigh alluded to earlier, one does need to temper the use of the model depending on the characteristics of the team's offence, which may sometimes cause unusual BIP distributions for the visitors, both in location and type.
I was merely looking at the total chances distribution, and out of 89000 PAs, pitchers only get 5200 (or so). I don't know what the pitcher batting L/R breakdown is, but I'd be surprised that's an issue.
Your concern has been addressed by my WOWY system, described in The Hardball Times 2008 Annual.
Tom
Yeah, what's the deal with that? This the second system I've seen that doesn't care much for Ichiro! in CF.
Nice work though, Chris. Defense has become my favorite thing to read about and to try to understand.
Best article in the Annual this year.
By the defensive metrics, Ichiro didn't seem to score all that well as a RF either.
I'm not convinced we need to. In addition, I'm not sure that BIS doesn't take that data, and effectively do that.
How so?
But no, it's not. Not sure what you might be referring to.
Speaking for myself, I hardly ever hear much about team defense in the way Chris describes. When I refer to it, I'm speaking of how the team did as a whole, the same way I would for team runs scored or runs allowed. That's how I interpret other people when they use the term. I agree that team defense is just about as individualistic as team batting.
<u>Drew</u>
Home ZR: .743
Road ZR: .932
Home plays made above/below average: -13
Road plays made above/below average: -11
Home runs saved above/below average: +8
Road runs saved above/below average: +7
<u>Hinske</u>
Home ZR: .737
Road ZR: 1.000
Home plays made above/below average: -2
Road plays made above/below average: -2
Home runs saved above/below average: 0
Road runs saved above/below average: 0
<u>Kielty</u>
Home ZR: 1.000
Road ZR: 1.000
Home plays made above/below average: +1
Road plays made above/below average: +1
Home runs saved above/below average: +1
Road runs saved above/below average: +1
<u>Pena</u>
Home ZR: .769
Road ZR: .913
Home plays made above/below average: -2
Road plays made above/below average: -2
Home runs saved above/below average: +1
Road runs saved above/below average: +1
<u>Total</u>
Home ZR: .756
Road ZR: .933
Home plays made above/below average: -18
Road plays made above/below average: -15
Home runs saved above/below average: +10
Road runs saved above/below average: +8
<u>Total</u>
Home ZR: .756
Road ZR: .933
Home plays made above/below average: -18
Road plays made above/below average: +10
Home runs saved above/below average: -15
Road runs saved above/below average: +8
Various people within the A's organization have been quoted as saying they see defense as the next big underrated commodity. It was specifically why they acquired Mark Ellis, for example. Rather than "Beane's interpretation," I think it's more accurate to call it Beane's strategy. His pitchers play in front of a consistently great defense. He pays less than other teams for the raw value of the defense, and as a nice bonus, his pitchers are worth a lot more on the trade market to teams who don't understand DIPS.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main