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Dialed In — Monday, January 11, 20102009 NL OPD (Offense Plus Defense)Everyone on the Stathead side of the aisle was pretty happy with the MVP awards this season. There was plenty of the usual hand-wringing over how much the BBWAA would screw them up. Then Statheads patted the BBWAA on the head and themselves on the back when Albert Pujols won. But should he have won? Don’t get me wrong, Albert Pujols is a fantastic player and is certainly an MVP candidate year-in and year-out. However, he wasn’t anything like Joe Mauer over in the American League. The offensive portion of OPD is XR+AA, which is eXtrapolated Runs (XR), adjusted for park and outs (+), above average at position (AA). You can see how Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is calculated here. The offensive statistics come from Baseball Reference and the defensive raw data comes from CNNSI.com. My park factors are based on a the last three seasons’ average, averaged with the last season. Please recall that all these are “Runs Against Average”, and the typical Replacement Level (RL) is in the 25-run range. So, if you want to compare these numbers to any other site’s Runs or Wins above RL, add 25 runs or so. For catchers, there is a ZR portion of up to one run, and then a standard rating from SB/CS/PB/E compilation. The National League was fortunate to have three excellent MVP candidates: When the race is this tight, there are other factors to consider - baserunning (outside of stolen bases), clutchiness, anything else that can tweak the needle, including additional positional considerations. There is a reason the offensive and defensive methodologies have enough error, as well as luck, can have an effect at least as large as three and a half runs. So while everyone was giddy with the Pujols selection, selecting any of these three is likely a fine MVP representative. Pujols (53.3 XR+AA, 9 DRS, 62.3 OPD) did have the top mark, and he’s a good baserunner in general. He’s a great player, and the best fielding 1B this past season, and is a deserving candidate. Matt Holliday (23.2, 6.2, 29.4) only got 270 PAs, and still managed to perform at a high enough rate to tie for tenth in the league in OPD. Now Holliday has re-signed with the Cardinals and having two mashers could strengthen the St. Louis grip on the NL Central. The second spot went to the most underrated player in the NL. Yes, those of you reading this know he’s terrific. Heck, even the media knows he’s good. Unfortunately, they constantly underrate just how good he is. Chase Utley (45.5, 13.4, 58.9) is the best second baseman in baseball, and one of the top three or four players overall. The last three seasons, Chase Utley has 174 OPD. That’s 9 runs fewers than Pujols, who has won two MVP awards. Utley is often thought of as the third best player on his team behind Jimmy Rollins (42 3-yr OPD) and Ryan Howard (36 3-yr OPD). Hanley Ramirez (56.5, 0.9, 57.3) had the top offensive season in the league, but doesn’t have the defensive skils of Utley or Pujols. Ramirez is improving. A few years ago, people talked about moving him away from shortstop after a dismal defensive 2007, but 2008-2009, Ramirez has been average, with a slight trend upwards. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hanley improve a handful of runs on defense and wrest the MVP from Prince Albert. Ramirez has been the top offensive performer in the league (relative to position) over the last three seasons. The Milwaukee Brewers are assembling one excellent team on the field. Ryan Braun (46.6, -3.8, 42.8) is definitely a star. He’s a great hitter and a solid fielder. He wasn’t great in left field, but he’s learning, and certainly capable. As of now, he’s the best left fielder in the NL. The Brew Crew had two other players make it to the top ten - Prince Fielder (39.3, -3.9, 35.4) at first base was seventh and Felipe Lopez (25.4, 4.1, 29.4) at second base tied for tenth. The Brewers have the makings of a team that can challenge the Cardinals, with a little more pitching. The Padres have Adrian Gonzalez (32.9, 5.5, 38.4) stationed at first base and he’s one of the league’s best players. He’s a cut or two below Pujols offensively, but then almost everyone is, and he’s a terrific fielder as well - although a cut below Pujols there as well. He’s Duke Snider to Pujols’ Willie Mays. Okay, perhaps not quite that strong, but he’s a very good player that gets almost no recognition. He stepped it up in 2009, and at his age, he’s a good bet to continue to improve. The Rookie of the Year award has a limit on experience. No more than 130 PAs to be considered a rookie. If the Giants had called Pablo Sandoval (37.4, 0, 37.4) up ten days later in 2008, Sandoval would have been a runaway ROY. He was the sixth best player in the league overall, and the top third baseman. He’s going to have to continue to produce at the position, as it is loaded in the NL with Chipper Jones, David Wright, Mark Reynolds and Ryan Zimmerman. Speaking of which, the eighth best in the NL was Zimmerman (29.5, 5.4, 34.9). The Nationals third baseman has improved as he learns, and is one of the top fielders as well as a top hitter. Zimmerman is getting help in DC, and his efforts may turn the franchise around sooner rather than later. Rounding out the top ten at number nine is the Rockies stellar shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (31.3, 2.2, 33.5). Tulo was terrific in his rookie season, and struggled in his sophomore year, but was superb in 2009. It’s harder to be the top SS when Hanley is in the league, but Tulo is certainly making his mark. The most remarkable thing, to me, about this top ten was the age. The average age was just 26, and six of the top ten players were 25 or younger. That is coupled with the young pitching in the league. The entire set of 2009 NL OPD can be found at Google docs. Please enjoy, research, verify and ask all the questions you can. |
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1. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: January 11, 2010 at 06:07 AM (#3433731)Rough example:
We could certainly say that Hanley actually has 400 runs saved, and Albert has 270, however, that's not informative because it doesn't speak to their opportunities nor their positional peers. Everyone else that plays Hanley's position, and gets Hanley's chances saves 400 runs. The other 1B, compared to Pujols' chances, save only 260 runs. Hanley's positional advantage comes at the plate - some systems will compare all hitters equally, and then adjust (say, +12 runs for a SS vs a 1B), where this system compares players to their actual peers - the other players that were deemed good enough to field the position, and how they hit.
It is like VORP in that respect, but I suppose it is VOA. Then add defense. As noted, the difference between these numbers and VORP should be about 20-25 runs (and a different park factor).
I hope that helps. And thanks for the kind words, all.
So, no position adjustment here Chris?
Because your numbers seem to say that if you have two identical offensive players, and one is an average defensive 1B and
one is an average defensive SS, they are of equal value. But, in reality, the SS is much more valuable b/c the average offensive level of an average fielding SS is much lower than that of an average fielding 1B.
So really, you're measuring production, not value. Not criticizing, but just want to know how to use your numbers.
Thanks for all the work!
I think it yields the same as Hitter-Average hitter+Position adjustment, if you allow the positional adjustment to "float" with the specific yearly performance. Instead of being *12*, it's "12 this year, 14 last year..." etc.
I think it yields the same as Hitter-Average hitter+Position adjustment, if you allow the positional adjustment to "float" with the specific yearly performance. Instead of being *12*, it's "12 this year, 14 last year..." etc.
OK, I see what you're doing. Makes sense.
I think that the SS is still "more valuable" in the sense that elite hitting SS are still rarer, and acceptable SS are just rarer in general.
I can see how this sentence could be a bit confusing. Hanley almost certainly does have better defensive skills than Pujols and is probably fairly close to Utley. But relative to position, they are better than Hanley is.
Chris has the position adjustment figured into the offense side of the equation. If it were in the defensive side, it would be more apparent who the most skilled players are. But once you add it up to get the final OPD number, it's all the same.
Well, largely. I think that average may not completely express the scarcity, depending on the talent distribution.
That's most of a Hall of Fame resume, so long as Utley remains in baseball and reasonably competent for another five to seven seasons. Utley's already had Ryne Sandberg's peak. And Sandberg's case doesn't consist of much more than peak. Sadly, Utley's glove hasn't received the respect it deserves, so he won't have the string of gold gloves to point to. Hopefully Utley can go out there and put up, say, a 30/30 season, and get the MVP his case will probably need.
Weeks = +6.7
Lopez = +14.8
Counsell = +16.0
Counsell, 38, putting up a +11 defense...wow. 2nd best among NL 2b.
Ah, OK. Thank you for the explanation!
I don't know how much extra work it involves, but you do you have the data to do a 3 yr OPD run, instead of calculating it year by year?
And you are group think approved. Thanks for all the effort you put in.
You have Jeff Francoeur with a -7.03 DRS, which comes down closer to UZR (-5.9/150) than Fielding Bible Runs Saved (+8).
Fun to note that three of the four worst DRS numbers belonged to Houston players. Lee (worst), Tejada (3rd) and Bourn (4th).
Weeks = +6.7
Lopez = +14.8
Counsell = +16.0
Counsell, 38, putting up a +11 defense...wow. 2nd best among NL 2b.
Correct me if I'm wrong, Chris, but don't you use innings played at the defensive position as the denominator?
In that case, Milwaukee's bad pitching will (theoretically) result in more batters faced/inning and therefore more opportunities/inning for the fielders. Under those circumstances their performance, relative to average, will get magnified. I don't see if there is a way or a reason to adjust for this factor but it's something we should take into account if that's how the system grades them.
Player has X chances in his IP
Player converts X chances into outs at Y rate yielding Z plays made
League avg rate times X chances yields league Z plays made
Player Z minus League Z times run value.
I was mistaken then. It's been a while since I read your defensive stuff.
Is there any reason to think Utley can play shortstop? I know there's no reason to think Pujols can play short. But there's every reason to think Hanley Ramirez could play a decent second base.
That's an unusual rating.
This is obviously a very poorly written sentence. It seems to say that you have quantified the effect of luck in the calculation but not the error. That is a - let's say - unusual statement.
Or maybe that sentence says something else. It's not really readable.
I agree with this, snapper - which is not to say that this (Chris' method) is unreasonable, just different than what I (or you) might do.
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