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Dialed In — Tuesday, July 15, 2008American League Leaders at the All-Star Break (Offense Plus Defense)With the season at a break, we can get a snapshot of where players are performing thusfar, and see how they are helping, or hurting their team. the data here is “runs against average”. The offense is calculated using Extrapolated Runs, but the number I have will approximate any run formula - RC, LW, EQR. The Defense is converting Zone Rating to runs (as you can read about here). The run values are very close to MGL’s UZR (usually). the definition of “Position” is the innings at which a player has played the most. Yes, Ichiro is back playing RF, but he’s played the most in CF, and thus that is where he “counts” at the mid-point of the season. First Base
LG Player FirstName Team pos g ab Xra+AA DRS OPD It is pretty clear that the Royals are completely lost at first base. That’s got to be below replacement level. Fortunately plenty of the AL Central chooses not to field a good player at this “difficult to fill” position. kevin Youkilis is really having an underrated season, and being a good glove helps him. He could win the rare second Gold Glove. Second Base
LG Player FirstName Team pos g ab Xra+AA DRS OPD Ian Kinsler is clobbering the AL second basemen. Yes, these are park-adjusted. Mark Ellis is dominating the fielding again. Robinson Cano’s offense is terrible, but that isn’t knews to the Yankee fans. I suspect Kinsler will regress in the second half, but he’s got a great headstart. Third Base
LG Player FirstName Team pos g ab Xra+AA DRS OPD All that hard work from Morneau is just being given away by Mike Lamb. And Alex Gordon - how does the idea of first base sound? It’s not like the Royals have anyone over there. Scott Rolen seems to be healthy again. And of course, Alex Rodriguez is a stud. Even missing a few weeks. Shortstop
LG Player FirstName Team pos g ab Xra+AA DRS OPD Wow, the Royals are terrible. Look! There’s Derek Jeter not stinking it up with the glove! Remember, this is a small sample at this point in the season. These numbers can, and will, move by the end of the season. It’s a fairly tight group, with no team really gaining a big advantage. If Jeter starts hitting, and maintains his defense, the Yankees could catch some people. Catcher
LG Player FirstName Team pos g ab Xra+AA DRS OPD The M&M Boys in the Twin Cities are just great players. I think they may come back and win that division. ‘Tek may be done. I like the balance of Posada and Molina’s defense. Ivan Rodriguez is having a decent season, and all you hear is how bad that team has performed. Left Field
LG Player FirstName Team pos g ab Xra+AA DRS OPD Johnny Damon. Really. Want a list of teams that could have used Barry Bonds this season? All the ones with left fielders not as good as Johnny Damon. That is a terrible set of left fielders. to be more fair, Manny’s defense is probably only half as bad as that -8.6, so he could be 4 runs better - or, about as good as Luke Scott. That’s got to be worth $20 million. Center Field
LG Player FirstName Team pos g ab Xra+AA DRS OPD Josh Hamilton got some well deserved love last night. But Grady Sizemore is looking like the MVP. He’s hitting and fielding. If he could get a little more help, maybe they could dig out of that hole. Okay, it’s too late, but Grady is earning some hardware. Hey, there is a Royal down at the bottom. they aren’t good, you say? Nick Swisher has also played quite a bit of first base for the White Sox. He’s a poor defender there, so his overall contribution is somewhat less than I am saying here. Right Field
LG Player FirstName Team pos g ab Xra+AA DRS OPD Wonder who the culprit is on the Yankees’ team? Look no further, Mr. Kim, I’m your man. Abreu isn’t catching anything. At this point in the season it is difficult to miss that many balls. One of the pleasant surprises, for me anyway, was Franklin Gutierrez. Why, you ask? Because of his defense. He showed up last year as a really good fielder, and I’m glad to see that continue. There is Michael Cuddyer ruining the Twins playoff chances - or at least doing his part in that. Quietly, Nick Markakis is outstanding in Baltimore. And then Milton Bradley. I’d love to see him push out in the second half and get some MVP consideration. DH
LG Player FirstName Team pos g ab Xra+AA DRS OPD If I were concerned about the MVP, I wouldn’t just make zeroes for defense, but here, it gives you an account of what they are doing. Bonds would be dogging all these players as well. Top Fourteen
LG Player FirstName Team pos g ab Xra+AA DRS OPD That’s a pretty good All-Star team - just stick ARod at short.
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1. Scott Kazmir's breaking balls Posted: July 15, 2008 at 06:00 PM (#2857166)Will you be posting NL players? Thanks.
Good job, Chris, too bad the formatting is crap. I don't know how to do any better, anyone have suggestions?
Actually the top names are a pretty young group. That's good to see, plus they aren't all Yanks and Red Sox. It's good to see teams like TEX and BAL getting good ink every once in a while.
But he's a hall-of-famer when it comes to jumping over stuff!
Bloomquistian power and his walk rate is down. Though he has a good year (for him) as a base stealer. I guess things could be worse.
JD Drew at -4.4, Ellsbury at -1.9, Crisp at -8.1 and Manny at -8.6.
And yet subjectively, all of them except Manny look like plus defenders.
I've never been that impressed with Crisp visually. I think Ellsbury is pretty good, but not that great.
Team pos XR+aa DRS OPD
BAL 1B 15.5 -1.4 14.1
2B 18.9 -4.3 14.6
3B -12.9 0.6 -12.3
C -8.1 -3.2 -11.3
CF -3.2 7.6 4.3
LF -1.4 9.6 8.2
RF 16.7 1.9 18.5
SS -18.0 -1.6 -19.6
BAL Total 7.5 9.1 16.6
BOS 1B 21.7 6.7 28.3
2B 6.7 0.7 7.4
3B 7.1 5.1 12.2
C -10.6 -3.7 -14.3
CF -5.1 -13.5 -18.6
DH 3.6 0.0 3.6
LF 11.9 -12.3 -0.4
RF 19.3 -5.5 13.8
SS 0.9 -4.4 -3.5
BOS Total 55.4 -26.9 28.6
CHW 1B -8.4 -1.7 -10.1
2B -9.4 3.1 -6.3
3B -4.8 1.6 -3.2
C 4.0 -6.9 -2.9
CF -7.1 1.2 -5.9
DH 12.7 0.0 12.7
LF 14.5 -6.6 7.8
RF 11.2 -4.3 6.9
SS 4.7 6.4 11.1
CHW Total 17.4 -7.3 10.1
CLE 1B -9.3 -4.4 -13.7
2B -17.2 3.5 -13.7
3B -1.1 -7.6 -8.7
C 0.7 1.5 2.2
CF 25.2 8.2 33.4
DH -2.3 0.0 -2.3
LF -6.3 -3.8 -10.0
RF -19.1 11.0 -8.1
SS 7.6 1.6 9.2
CLE Total -21.7 10.1 -11.6
DET 1B 8.4 1.3 9.7
2B -0.1 -4.9 -5.1
3B 5.2 4.3 9.5
C 0.5 3.8 4.2
CF 9.1 1.8 10.9
DH -7.6 0.0 -7.6
LF 6.7 6.0 12.7
RF 5.3 6.6 11.8
SS 2.6 -3.6 -1.0
DET Total 30.0 15.2 45.3
KCR 1B -24.5 -4.0 -28.5
2B -10.3 -1.6 -12.0
3B -2.9 -12.9 -15.8
C 0.3 -0.4 -0.2
CF -12.8 -1.1 -14.0
LF 0.6 0.9 1.6
RF -7.8 1.0 -6.8
SS -13.0 4.2 -8.8
KCR Total -70.4 -14.1 -84.4
LAA 1B -4.1 3.5 -0.6
2B -3.2 -2.7 -5.9
3B -17.4 2.4 -14.9
C 5.5 -4.9 0.7
CF -2.2 -2.5 -4.7
LF -28.4 10.2 -18.3
RF 1.0 -4.6 -3.7
SS 5.0 9.9 14.9
LAA Total -43.8 11.4 -32.4
MIN 1B 20.3 0.4 20.6
2B 4.7 -3.5 1.2
3B -11.6 -6.7 -18.4
C 19.2 3.2 22.4
CF -21.1 6.2 -14.9
LF -6.6 -3.1 -9.7
RF -3.4 -7.9 -11.3
SS 5.7 -5.4 0.3
MIN Total 7.2 -16.8 -9.6
NYY 1B 10.3 -2.2 8.0
2B -16.5 5.5 -11.0
3B 19.0 -4.1 15.0
C -7.9 4.6 -3.4
CF -13.5 4.7 -8.8
LF 19.0 -3.3 15.7
RF -2.6 -15.1 -17.7
SS 0.4 2.6 3.0
NYY Total 8.1 -7.3 0.8
OAK 1B -8.7 8.2 -0.5
2B -0.7 13.6 12.9
3B -5.9 -2.0 -8.0
C -1.9 5.2 3.3
CF 1.5 6.6 8.1
DH 8.9 0.0 8.9
LF 6.3 -1.4 4.9
RF -27.6 7.9 -19.7
SS 1.8 -8.7 -6.9
OAK Total -26.3 29.4 3.1
SEA 1B -10.9 -5.9 -16.8
2B -2.6 -10.5 -13.1
3B 6.9 6.2 13.1
C -18.6 1.1 -17.5
CF 5.4 -3.9 1.6
DH -15.4 0.0 -15.4
LF 1.0 -7.9 -6.9
RF -12.9 3.2 -9.7
SS -5.6 4.1 -1.5
SEA Total -52.6 -13.6 -66.3
TBR 1B 2.8 -0.4 2.5
2B 2.9 -2.0 1.0
3B 14.9 3.5 18.5
C 8.0 1.4 9.4
CF 8.2 -5.3 3.0
DH 4.1 0.0 4.1
LF -5.1 10.8 5.7
RF -2.9 -3.5 -6.5
SS -8.0 -1.6 -9.6
TBR Total 25.1 3.0 28.1
TEX 1B -11.8 -2.4 -14.2
2B 29.7 -1.3 28.4
3B 0.1 -7.4 -7.2
C 3.7 -3.3 0.3
CF 17.3 -6.7 10.6
LF -1.0 -4.0 -5.0
RF 24.9 -0.3 24.6
SS 14.4 -3.0 11.3
TEX Total 77.4 -28.5 48.9
TOR 1B -1.3 2.1 0.8
2B -2.8 3.6 0.8
3B 3.2 17.0 20.2
C 5.2 1.7 6.9
CF -1.4 -2.5 -3.9
DH -4.0 0.0 -4.0
LF -17.2 3.0 -14.3
RF -16.1 6.9 -9.2
SS 1.6 -1.6 0.1
TOR Total -33.0 30.2 -2.8
Orlando Cabrera is 4.7 runs above average offensively here. He has 84OPS+. BPro have him at a 241 EQA, 3.6 runs below position.
Orlando Cabrera is 4.7 runs above average offensively here. He has 84OPS+. BPro have him at a 241 EQA, 3.6 runs below position.
I suspect that the difference might be that Chris is comparing players to the AL positional average, while BPro is probably using the positional average for the entire majors. The average AL SS has a 83 OPS+, while the average NL SS is at 92.
Can you imagine the reaction to a metric that showed a team that is among the leaders in runs scored to be the worst offensive team in the league?
Well, that was pretty common in the pre-humidor days in Denver...
There are players that are listed as DH but without much PT. The team totals consist of all players at a position.
Maybe I didn't elaborate enough, or I don't understand the answer, but there are 6 teams that don't show any DH data at all in their team totals. These are AL teams...somebody is DHing for them, even if they aren't doing so consistantly.
Most people that have watched him this season (myself included) would say that the latter is closer to the truth (though almost certainly a bit over).
As for the team numbers, the Rays are 2nd in the majors in DefEff yet ZR is showing just 3 runs above average. They significantly better than that overall.
That'd be a fair comparison if pitching wasn't the biggest factor in preventing runs.
Chris, if a team has more flyball pitchers than normal (and I don't know that the Sox do), how might that skew your defensive numbers for the infield/outfield? I'm not saying your numbers are screwy, Chris, but below-average defensive numbers for the Boston outfield are counter-intuitive enough that I figure these sorts of questions are worth exploring.
For Ellsbury, hasn't Mike E. said rookies usually struggle defensively as they get used to the new sightlines? He certainly has the tools, but I would not be surprised if he is struggling a bit as he adjusts to that and playing in such a weird park.
As for Coco, wasn't the consensus going into 2007 that he was a great LFer but for whatever reason just couldn't hack it in center? I know he looked good there last year (and the numbers backed it up) but maybe it was just a fluke?
I did a quick defense calc from the Hardball Times numbers that is IZ plus OOZ plays above average times .8 (I can't remember where I got that multiplier from). It's not regressed or park-adjusted, but it does have Longoria comfortably above average.
This quick calc agrees with the other 3B for the most part, but it also has Mora waaay below average. In fact, I have Longoria 23 runs better than Mora, while Dial's numbers have Mora rated above Longoria.
Mora
700 Innings
221 BIZ
152 Plays (.688 RZR)
19 OOZ
Longoria
740 Innings
162 BIZ
116 Plays (.726 RZR)
32 OOZ
It is odd that Mora has so many more balls in zone than Longoria. Maybe it's a positioning thing?
Defensive efficiency isn't perfect, but its the best we've got for an objective team measure on defense. It shows how often a team turns batted balls into outs, and the Red Sox do an excellent job at this. Given that the Red Sox also look good on defense (other than Manny), it simply isn't believable that they are the worst defensive team in the American League.
I agree with most of the above ratings, both offensive and defensive. When it comes to the Red Sox, I believe the above ratings are incorrect.
1: More Balls in play- Tampa's pitchers have 120 more strikeouts
2: More Balls in play- Baltimore has given up 69 more hits
3: G/F ratio, I don't have team numbers, but Baltimore's pitchers seem to have more of a ground ball tendency than TB's...
... and many more possibilities
Chris may disagree, but to me fielding metrics are still more art than science- If I haven't seen a player much I'll go by what the metrics say, but if I've seen a guy a lot, I tend to go with eyeball mark 1 if there is a dispute.
Right, but neither does Pronk, but he seems to count in both charts. Meanwhile someone with Toronto (Stairs, I'm sure), counts for the team totals, but not the individual totals. Is the playing-time cutoff different? I can understand you being very limited in the number of players that you call a DH, and I can understand having a minimum playing time requirement...but the AB limit doesn't seem me to be consistent.
Wow. I didn't realise that AL SS suck so badly this year. Looking at EQA, the AL SS above the MLB SS average of 250, with > 200PA are Young(276), Peralta(260), Jeter(257), Eckstein (256), Lugo(251. Whereas in the NL, there is Hanley(328), Hairston(301), Reyes(297), Hardy(294), Rollins(279), Barmes(279), Guzman(268), Theriot(268), Keppinger(264), Escobar(258), Tejada(257), Drew(251).
I'm sure Rolen has him beat. The question though was whether he's closer to the ZR rating (about -3 over 158 or so games) or FRAA (about 24), to be more specific that would be an O/U of 10.5. I'd rate him a bit higher than that number. My actual point stands regardless, that most anyone who has watched him all season would consider him a very good defender.
Lugo is nowhere near above average. I don't care what the stats say.
what you don't think Lugo isn't a better hitter than Tony Pena? Or Betancourt? or Bartlett? or Renteria's corpse?
He's got a OBP of .355
Actually I think Pena and Bynum are so mind numbingly awful they are skewing the AL SS numbers downward.
Remove the best and worst SS from both leagues and I think the "average" Al and NL shortstops will be a lot closer.
It is? He's played in 88 of his team's 95 games. How much is a sufficient sample? It seems like a half year's level of performance ought to be reasonably predictive of a full year's performance, first-half/second-half splits notwithstanding.
Well, the AL has TPJ, Bynum and the other Baltimore SS. The NL has VizCock, the SS the Dodgers have replaced Furcal with, Tulo. Barmes has been very good for the Rockies, but Tulo has been awful.
If you remove the best offensive SS from the AL, say the top 2, you're left with barely any guys barely above average, especially when you consider that Eckstein is sharing the position with McDonald and Scutaro. Remove Hanley and Reyes from the NL, and you still have several guys who would be better than anyone in the AL, even if you didn't remove anyone from the AL.
result?
Al SSs go up from 83 to 84...
NL SSs go down from 92 to 90...
not much difference
2 plays.
And it's still a small sample. Generally, I cutoff my Gold Glove awards at 1000 innings. There just a lot of variation below that.
Do you use a different stat source than Hardball Times? It looks like Mora has received a lot more chances, but is converting a much lower percentage of them into outs. If he's doing that at a below-league-average rate, shouldn't those extra chances hurt him?
I have no idea about Desperate Evan.
RZR's (THT site):
Coco CF: .908
Ellsbury LF/CF/RF .929/.956/1.000
Ells has 102 innings in RF BTW, and his CF number would lead the league if he had enough innings to qualify there.
I think these are closer to the truth than what I see in post #17 above.
Not really...it's not a big deal. I'm just trying to understand what I'm looking at. There are 5 players listed in the DH list and 8 teams listed with DH stats....It seems like there should be more of former or less of the latter. It doesn't sound like you left any of the players out of the totals...you just grouped them differently there. It all works out in the end, but I was confused along the way.
He's listed in left field, where he's spent most of his time this year.
I was talking to someone. Five years later, Markakis is looking like the best player taken in the '03 draft. Maybe you could argue Chad Cordero, but I don't expect many on this board to.
/Still time for Carlos Quentin or Adam Jones going forward, of course.
I was thinking that his fielding should be a much bigger asset for him, enough to cancel out more of that sub-zero offense. But it's league-average.
Damn, he really does have a decent shot at it. If he keeps up his performance in the 2nd half, he'll enter 2009 at 37 years old needing around 370ish hits. Assuming he doesn't completely fall off the cliff talentwise, and is willing to play as a backup and/or risk his lifetime .300 average, I'd say he's got a better than decent shot.
I won't argue about Markakis the best of 2003, but sometime down the road Adam Jones, Carlos Quentin, John Danks, and Chad Billingsley might have something to say about it. Maybe Delmon Young and Rickie Weeks will figure the game out too.
How about Papelbon?
Kemp and Ethier on LA were both 2003 draft picks, too, although neither is looking as good as Markakis. Down the road, though, who knows?
If I could pick any one player, though, I'd pick Markakis.
That's incredible. On the Marlins broadcast yesterday, someone sent in an email about how Uggla stinks on defense and that they shouldn't be using errors. So they used Range factor...argggh.
Thanks for the note.
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