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Dialed In — Friday, August 10, 2012Handicapping the NL EastThe Washington Nationals, today, have a 4.5 game lead on the Atlanta Braves. They have done this with outstanding starting pitching, mostly. Heck, they lead the NL across the board. It’s been impressive, and they have also been fortunate enough to use their five core starters (Strasburg, Gonzalez, Jackson, Zimmermann, Detwiler) for 106 of their 112 games. That generally is a good thing (he asserts). The Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds has the Nats at 77% chance of winning the division. It is quite the rosy picture for Nationals fans. But is it? There are plenty of pieces written and discussions had around the Nationals limiting Strasburg to just 180 innings. He’s had serious surgery and certainly never worked this many big league innings. Will Strasburg re-injure his arm? Can he handle the workload? If he is going to get “shutdown” at 180 innings, will he be able to get loose again for the playoffs? Does that 180 IP include what they would want for the playoffs? These are all fun questions, and the Nats do have, in my opinion, the right guy at the helm to creatively manage the situation. At least he would have that creativity if he only had to worry about Strasburg. The Nats have two other pitchers that have only thrown 160 innings in one season in the majors. Detwiler and Zimmermann are also staring at big jumps in arm wear. Sixty percent of the Washington rotation is approaching a wall, or a cliff. Detwiler has made it to 150 innings between the minors and majors, but these are tougher innings. Zimmerman had TJ surgery and threw a handful of innings two years ago, and then 160 last year. So, can Zimmermann make the leap to 200? Is he going to run out of gas? I want to be clear - I am not talking about these guys getting injured - I am talking about them getting worn down. That just means less effective. History is filled with pitchers getting the dreaded “dead arm”, or loss in velocity. The brainy types like to roll that into a large group and call it “regression to the mean”. Sometimes it is more than that - it is a pitcher that is tired because he is young and hasn’t developed the staminato throw 200+ innings in the major leagues. I know what you are saying - everyone doesn’t need to get to 200 IP by a step process. I agree. Unfortunately for the Nats, they have three key starters that are looking to make this step, without getting tired and without regressing to the mean too much. What that means to me is that the Nationals have too many eggs in the baskets carried by inexperienced arms. If the Nationals have to get too many starts from other pitchers - maybe it is just one a week, it could spell trouble. With seven weeks to go, 50 games, I think the Braves will chase them down, and win the division. Will Washington drop all the way out of the playoffs? It will depend on how they start handling their staff, if they pick anyone up to help shoulder the load, or just how creative Davey Johnson gets to hold the line. |
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1. Chris Dial Posted: August 10, 2012 at 09:31 PM (#4205862)Rizzo:
Truth be told, the offense has actually hit well since their very slow start in April. After that tough first month, they have had a team OPS of around .760 since then, though early on they often couldn't get hits with runners in scoring position to save their lives.
Really? We're expecting Tim Hudson, Paul Maholm and Ben Sheets to tire down the stretch due to lack of experience? Odd.
In order to miss the playoffs the Nats will have to lose 7 and a half games on the Pirates and 9 games on the Cardinals. At the risk of jinxing them (and being aware of what happened last year), I think they'll be ok.
While I don't think you chalk it up to experience, I do think Ben Sheets at least has the "will he make it to the end of the season?" vibe about him. To a certain degree all pitchers have that, but come on, this is Ben Sheets!
Actually it's not about experience.
Yes, Ben Sheets. Workhorse. Reliable. Always posts up.
Paul Maholm has a single season of 200 innings and that was a long time ago.
And what about the other two spots in the rotation ? Which stud proven innings eaters are manning those starts ?
Predicting that the Nationals rotation is going to collapse in a quivering heap of fatigue while the Braves rotation is projected to march through the end of September unscathed and stronger than ever ? Even with the new additions ? THAT is odd.
I would expect them to tire down the stretch because they are old.
Seriously, the Nationals have the best record in all of baseball by two full games more than 70% of the way through the season, they have the third best run differential in all of baseball, they have won 8 out of their last 9 and 18 out of their last 23, and it's not as though they have a killer schedule the rest of the way (27 out of their last 47 games are at home). To talk about them missing the playoffs completely seems more than a little strange to say the least.
So Chris has two central points, if I read him right. Please correct me, Chris, if I've missed something or misinterpreted you.
1) A central part of the Nationals' success to date is the performance of their young pitchers.
2) Those young pitchers are not used to the wear of a full ML season, and there is a specific reason to think that young pitchers will wear down because they don't have that experience.
Therefore,
C) We ought to project the Nationals to do significantly worse the rest of the year, because one of their central strengths may not be there to the same extent.
If that's Chris's argument, it doesn't apply to the Braves in any way, shape or form. Here are some relevant differences:
1) the Braves are not relying on standout performances by their SPs. Their three SPs with the most starts have ERA+s of 94, 82, and 107. Performances like that are a lot easier to find than performances like the Nationals' young studs.
2) the Braves are not relying on any particular SPs. Their five SPs with the most starts have a total of 92 starts between them, out of 114 games.
If you think the Braves have rotation troubles of their own, that's fine; they do. But you've got to make arguments different than Chris's to get that conclusion.
Granted, Hudson is 36, but Sheets is 33 and Maholm is 30. Of their young guys, Minor has the most work, and he projects to 160 innings (or so my napkin calculations have him). Sheets' arm might fall off, but age and 'wearing-down' is not the big issue here, and their oldest starter is the one with the best record of being a horse.
In any case, the big picture here is that the Braves are a hitting team with pretty good pitching, a lot of it coming in the bullpen. They don't need weirdly good performances by their SPs to keep up their record, and they've got a lot of depth in their starting pitching to get the merely above-average results they need.
EDIT: or now it does.
That was in Chris's last paragraph. It's not a maybe. It's a prediction. It's a strong one. All I'm saying is the very same thing that he is concerned about for the Nationals rotation could just as easily apply to the Braves. Does anyone other than a Braves fan feel differently ?
Heard one of the talking heads at ESPN mentioning the Braves Bullpen workload has been better than last year, and that might help their bullpen avoid the late season collapse they had last year. If thats true, thats a factor that would certainly help the Braves chase down the Nationals.
I am biased, but the projection of wear and tear on the Nationals young arms is only conjecture. Sheets and Hudson have had their issues, to say the least, in the past. Hanson is a six inning guy even if healthy. Maholm is a 4th starter. The Nationals have proved they can win on the road; and have everybody back in the lineup. I say they win the division even if Strasburg is shut down in September.
What *I* said could *NOT* just as easily apply to the Braves pitchers. You may think they'll breakdown for other reasons, but not the reasons that Nats might.
The reasons that one pitcher or another might tire, fatigue, hit a wall, get deadarm, or even get hurt can vary.
When I said the same could apply to Atlanta, you have a number of different cases. You have a young guy or two that could hit a wall. And you have some vets with a lot of wear and tear and some spotty health track records, to put it politely.
I just don't see the justification for such a conclusive summary point as you gave us.
The Nats are still missing Desmond, so the offensive juggernaut is not complete yet, and his bat would allow them to rest a regular more often. The only position guy that's a bit over his head on the Nats is LaRoche, and they are going to want to find at bats for Moore anyway to keep him sharp, so he can play 6-8 games at first without a huge dropoff except in defense. Everyone but Harper and Espinosa have missed some time, and there is the depth currently to rest players when needed.
So basically that's just 16 games left against teams that can truly be called good this year, and 28 games left against teams that range from mediocre (at best) to horrible. And 27 out of these 44 remaining games are at home.
How concerned should we be about a Nats collapse with that schedule right there? I say not very concerned at all.
So Dial thinks the Nationals may only be the sixth best team in the National League? Hmm.
Depends, say the Braves win 4 of the 6 against the Nats. That only gives the Nats a 2 win lead. Doesn't take much of a collapse for the Braves to catch them then. The chances the Nats fall out of the WC are remote, but a scenario were they're two games worse than ATL for the rest of the season and lose 4 of the 6 to them is believable if not probable. If that happens and the Nats lose the one game playoff in the WC game I have to think that qualifies as a disappointment.
Edited for grammar
I suspect that if they could go back in time and handle the whole situation differently, they almost certainly would. But NOBODY thought before the season that the Nationals were going to be this good this year, least of all the organization itself.
There were also mundane roster management and service time concerns involved. Not pitching him in April would either mean a) the Nats playing a man short in April, or b) sending him down to the minors thus depriving him of the service time -- which would have led to Boras screaming bloody murder and probably resulting in a greviance from the MLBPA. I'm assuming putting him on the DL would be nixed by the league since he wasn't really hurt.
Whereas in September, it's easy to have the extra starter because of the roster expansion.
All of a sudden the game on Wednesday looks pretty damn critical for the poor little Braves. Believe me, those bittches do NOT want to leave town with their tail completely between their legs and eight full games back in the standings.
I'm pretty sure Joey clinched that distinction a long time ago.
And by the way, if the Nationals now win a paltry one out of three games the rest of the season, they end up with 90 wins. And I feel confident to about 98 or 99 percent certainty that 90 wins is going to be enough to get a team into the one game wild card playoff. So take one guess as to just how paralyzed with fear I am right now as to the possibility that we're not going to make it.
Yes.
If the Nats don't make the playoffs, it'll be a collapse of epic proportions. It wouldn't have been without the two wild cards - blowing a 7 game lead with 39 to go would be near-historic but they have a bigger lead than that in the WC.
Didn't work. Joey's posts are still there.
Try again!
And I'm glad that he did, because you could tell in the first inning or two that Strasburg had some of the best stuff going that he has had all year. Plus the bullpen really needed a fairly easy night.
2.) I find it rather hard to believe that a 59m rain delay = Strasburg returns but a 1h1m rain delay = to the hot tub him. It can't have been that mechanical of a deadline. That said, it was absolutely the right thing to bring Strasburg out there to continue pitching, as he was devastatingly effective and fairly effortless at that. The Braves really worked Jordan Zimmermann hard the night before, lots of lengthy ABs that simply wore him down, but they were utterly helpless against Strasburg and by the time the 7th rolled around they just looked demoralized.
But if you're going to be that overprotective, then it makes sense you would be the same in all respects and not bringing back pitchers after a delay is well precedented. It just boggles my mind you'd bring your fragile flower out after a delay but not let him pitch in the playoffs. However great he was pitching last night, it was a mid-August game when you have a 6 game lead. Not exactly panic time.
Because umpires should be making game time decisions based on what the home team GM is telling them to do.
* Rizzo may yet back off his plan, who knows?
No they shouldn't, any more than they should have changed calls on the field based on what Bobby Cox told them to do, but that doesn't make it wrong for Rizzo or Cox to try.
It was a 51 minute rain delay and Strasburg took a couple of stints throwing 10-15 pitches in the batting cage while waiting for the game to resume. Not really much different than the Nationals having two good offensive innings in a row at the same time Strasburg had two easy innings. Seems OK, but perhaps the decision was influenced by the previous game's heavy bullpen usage and extra innings, as well as the opponent.
I don't disagree with what you say but I think it goes against what seems to be the Nationals' organizational philosophy regarding Strasburg. If you're going to china doll him out of the playoffs then throwing him back onto the mound after an extended delay doesn't seem logical. There are any number of reductio ad absurdum responses that could follow this but I feel like the Nats are already going so overboard with this plan that they're already there.
The Nationals have said that they believe the best thing for Strasburg is to pitch less than 180 innings on a regular 5-man rotation schedule without stopping and re-starting his season. They could be wrong, or as many have suggested, one could argue that they should accept higher risk in return for a better chance at playoff success. However, I'm not sure the Nationals are really being inconsistent by treating a relatively short rain delay as a different level of risk. Apples and oranges, at least to the Nationals.
24 for the one game wild card playoff; 27 for the division; and a virtual tie with the Reds for the best record in the N.L.
And the magic numbers are dropping like a friggin' stone. Now down to just 16 for the wild card playoff, 20 for the division, and the best record in baseball by one game (not to mention the best run differential in baseball).
Pitcher preERA post-ERA
Zimmermann 2.38 6.29
Strasburg 2.90 4.50
Detwiler 2.99 3.77
Jackson 3.56 3.90
Gonzalez 3.32 1.57
I didn’t count on the offense scoring scoring so much more:
Thru Aug 10 - 4.37 rpg
Since - 5.38 rpg
Those starters hit the wall. The offense picked them up.
You know what, I'm ready to just go ahead and make my official call: the Nationals are now a 100% lock to at least make the wild card game, and Washington D.C. is going to see postseason baseball for the first time in almost 80 years. It's still almost more like a dream than reality!
Meanwhile, the Braves ALSO had two starters go downhill since your post...
Sheets got hurt, and before he did, had a 7.71 ERA in 3 starts since you first posted this. He had a 1.41 ERA prior to your post.
Hanson has had a 5.07 ERA since you posted this, up from 4.29
So both teams had 2 starters go bad in the last month. Like I said, your analysis could have easily applied to both teams at the time.
Whats really kept Atlanta in it is a completely unexpected performance from Chris Medlen.
Detwiler also got roughed up last night, raising his mark to 4.01.
My contention ALSO was specific that these three were out of gas, not injured. Sure, the Braves trying to ride Sheets was a risk, but not something they had all season, like the Nats did.
I'd say the pitchers *did* run out of gas. Their offense picked it up (although looking at that change from the start of July would have been smarter) - it's up 25%. And there's still time to lose a seven game lead. As a Mets fan, I am well aware. And any Braves fan knows they can drop like a stone, like last season.
Ok, maybe you are new at this, so let me try to help. 3.77 ERA = league average, more or less. 5.07 ERA = BAD. Yes, the amount of increase is roughly the same, but one went from well above average to average, and the other went from below average to BAD.
And Chris, I already told you up thread, because you were making a prediction on the outcome of the race, and you were making that prediction based on a downturn in the fortunes of the Nats rotation, you overlooked that there could be a downturn in the Braves rotation too.
You will notice that at NO POINT have I ever contested your theory that some of the members of the Nationals rotation might wear down. What I have contested from the beginning is that this might be the only factor that might impact the race. One potential factor I pointed out is that the Braves could have issues with THEIR rotation as well, which they clearly have. You want to get into fine line distinctions over semantics as to the difference between wearing down, vs. injury or regression. But YOU are the one handicapping the race. And when you did so, you did it in an incomplete manner. Now you want to say "See I was right, they did wear down". But that wasn't really the entirety of the point was it?. The MAIN point, being as you were handicapping the race was:
disingenuous indeed.
I didn’t count on the offense scoring scoring so much more:
Thru Aug 10 - 4.37 rpg
Since - 5.38 rpg
That's saying this isn't likely to happen because of the offense.
This set of ideas has proven to be just plain wrong. It takes some amazing cognitive dissonance to be the writer of that paragraph, read it a month after writing it, and to think, "I got it right".
And so far in the month of September, the Nats have 39 home runs and 115 runs scored in 22 games with a team OPS of .841! We are just absolutely killing the ball right now. I really like our chances to take that division title.
P.S.: Nationals magic number to clinch the division now down to just 2.
Nope, not exactly, especially when it was a virtual lock several weeks ago that the Nationals were going to take it.
Frankly, I'm surprised this thread is even still up. They ought to take it down, for poor Dial's sake if nothing else.
Not so bad that I'm rooting for Washington, mind you.
This is why everyone on the site, including your fellow Natinal fans, wish you would die in a fire Joey. For the record.
You misspelled "laugh and laugh and laugh" as "feel a little bad."
Really, people care that someone got a prediction wrong? The Nationals are a great story, the Nationals fans here really make me root for them to lose (not that Sam exactly sends me running to the warm embrace of the Braves).
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