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Dialed In — Wednesday, July 16, 2008National League Leaders at the All Star Break (Offense Plus Defense)The NL has some wonderful performances so far. Chipper Jones flirted with .400 for a couple of months, and Dan “Please don’t hit it to me” Uggla has had a great season. How does the league line up - and who is in the driver’s seat for the MVP? The data here is “runs against average”. The offense is calculated using Extrapolated Runs, but the number I have will approximate any run formula - RC, LW, EQR. The Defense is converting Zone Rating to runs (as you can read about here). The run values are very close to MGL’s UZR (usually). The definition of “Position” is the innings at which a player has played the most. Yes, Cristian Guzman played third base in the All-Star Game, but here he’s a shortstop. First Base Player First Team pos g ab Xra+AA Inn DRS OPD berkman lance HOU 1B 93 334 37.7 751.7 6.5 44.2 pujols albert STL 1B 82 286 35.3 660.7 8.9 44.1 teix'ra mark ATL 1B 93 347 4.2 814.7 9.6 13.9 gonzalz adrian SDP 1B 95 370 4.3 844.7 4.9 9.2 howard ryan PHI 1B 96 364 -2.9 822.0 6.0 3.1 lee derrek CHC 1B 94 382 0.3 807.7 2.5 2.9 votto joey CIN 1B 91 308 -1.2 722.0 0.2 -1.0 young dmitri WAS 1B 50 150 -0.3 212.3 -0.8 -1.0 jackson conor ARI 1B 84 303 1.6 572.7 -3.2 -1.6 helton todd COL 1B 81 297 -5.5 715.3 3.2 -2.4 fielder prince MIL 1B 93 344 3.1 786.0 -6.7 -3.6 bowker john SFG 1B 75 234 -5.5 386.0 0.4 -5.2 boone aaron WAS 1B 71 163 -6.0 290.0 -3.0 -9.0 laroche adam PIT 1B 87 311 -5.8 720.0 -3.3 -9.1 delgado carlos NYM 1B 93 347 -4.0 783.0 -5.3 -9.3 aurilia rich SFG 1B 83 249 -8.0 411.7 -1.6 -9.6 loney james LAD 1B 95 350 -9.9 821.3 -0.1 -10.1 helms wes FLA 1B 80 169 -9.0 205.3 -2.8 -11.9 jacobs mike FLA 1B 81 285 -5.2 514.7 -10.7 -15.9 Berkman and Pujols are just monsters so far. The batting averages are pretty high, and Berkman’s 50 points of slugging is outpacing Pujols’ 20 points of OBP. Mark Teixeira is haveing a very good season, but it looks like nothing next to those two. Mike Jacobs is a catcher playing first base. And it is beginning to show.For as poorly as Carlos Delgado started, he’s “only” four runs below average on offense. Ryan Howard is “only” three runs below. Second Base Player First Team pos g ab Xra+AA Inn DRS OPD utley chase PHI 2B 94 364 29.0 815.0 8.5 37.5 uggla dan FLA 2B 81 301 29.9 703.7 1.8 31.7 derosa mark CHC 2B 89 307 12.0 394.3 2.7 14.7 phillps brandon CIN 2B 93 372 6.3 811.3 6.5 12.8 font'not mike CHC 2B 71 143 6.6 288.7 3.7 10.3 johnson kelly ATL 2B 86 313 7.8 695.7 -2.0 5.9 gonzalz edgar SDP 2B 51 162 0.8 275.3 4.5 5.3 matsui kazuo HOU 2B 61 244 2.0 523.7 1.4 3.3 kennedy adam STL 2B 67 218 -5.6 446.7 7.7 2.1 baker jeff COL 2B 61 175 0.7 215.7 1.1 1.7 hudson orlando ARI 2B 86 328 3.3 724.7 -2.4 0.9 durham ray SFG 2B 87 263 7.8 535.3 -7.4 0.4 iguchi tadahto SDP 2B 59 239 -3.4 521.0 2.0 -1.4 miles aaron STL 2B 72 224 -0.8 299.7 -1.5 -2.3 weeks rickie MIL 2B 77 300 -1.7 667.0 -1.9 -3.6 kent jeff LAD 2B 79 285 -6.5 589.3 3.0 -3.6 loretta mark HOU 2B 62 173 -3.1 249.3 -2.0 -5.2 castllo luis NYM 2B 68 245 -0.4 565.0 -6.2 -6.5 easley damion NYM 2B 66 182 -2.0 266.0 -8.4 -10.4 lopez felipe WAS 2B 88 292 -14.5 582.7 1.7 -12.9 sanchez freddy PIT 2B 87 358 -24.4 718.3 -2.0 -26.4 Uggla is slightly ahead of Utley on offense, but Chase’s defense pushes him to the top slot. The Cubs are getting some great second base play from DeRosa and Fontenot. The Mets are being equally sabotaged by their second basemen. Easley has had a hot month, or that would be much worse. Freddy Sanchez won a batting title. No, really, he did. Third Base Player First Team pos g ab Xra+AA Inn DRS OPD jones chipper ATL 3B 83 298 38.6 659.7 9.9 48.6 glaus troy STL 3B 94 333 7.4 758.0 8.7 16.1 wright david NYM 3B 94 365 14.9 838.0 -3.0 11.8 ramirez aramis CHC 3B 88 326 12.3 764.0 -4.6 7.7 wiggnton ty HOU 3B 58 202 4.0 500.0 -2.8 1.3 bellard ronnie WAS 3B 56 163 0.5 192.3 -2.0 -1.5 feliz pedro PHI 3B 94 319 -10.4 726.3 8.5 -1.9 dewitt blake LAD 3B 83 266 -6.7 662.0 4.5 -2.1 reynolds mark ARI 3B 88 309 1.9 740.7 -5.2 -3.3 cantu jorge FLA 3B 92 368 3.8 676.0 -7.4 -3.6 atkins garrett COL 3B 93 368 -5.0 779.0 1.3 -3.6 kouzmnff kevin SDP 3B 88 354 -1.9 799.7 -1.7 -3.7 mntkiwicz doug PIT 3B 71 154 -2.1 173.7 -2.2 -4.3 encrncion edwin CIN 3B 86 297 1.2 721.3 -5.6 -4.4 zmmermn ryan WAS 3B 50 206 -4.9 440.7 -0.2 -5.1 blum geoff HOU 3B 60 160 -10.9 273.0 3.8 -7.1 hall bill MIL 3B 82 269 -9.9 578.3 0.4 -9.4 bautsta jose PIT 3B 86 269 -5.9 624.3 -3.6 -9.5 castllo jose SFG 3B 93 322 -15.8 705.3 2.7 -13.0 What is with the Pirates? Chipper was pretty unhappy with David Wright’s Gold Glove, and it looks like he wants his own this year. He’s been the best player in the NL this year, and by a decent margin given that it is only halfway through. The Cardinals trade of Rolen for Glaus has worked out pretty well for both clubs. Shortstop Player First Team pos g ab Xra+AA Inn DRS OPD ramirez hanley FLA SS 93 373 40.6 800.3 -3.9 36.7 reyes jose NYM SS 93 393 22.7 824.0 -4.4 18.3 guzman cristian WAS SS 93 403 9.0 827.0 0.4 9.4 rollins jimmy PHI SS 72 292 6.9 595.3 0.8 7.7 hardy j.j. MIL SS 83 307 8.9 707.7 -4.4 4.5 escobar yunel ATL SS 83 332 0.7 706.7 3.0 3.7 tejada miguel HOU SS 94 371 -0.3 804.0 3.2 2.9 wilson jack PIT SS 45 168 -0.1 395.0 1.7 1.6 barmes clint COL SS 55 193 0.5 241.0 0.8 1.3 theriot ryan CHC SS 87 347 5.5 752.3 -7.0 -1.6 drew stephen ARI SS 88 341 1.8 740.7 -5.9 -4.2 izturis cesar STL SS 73 216 -6.0 546.7 1.0 -5.0 quintnlla omar COL SS 56 164 -6.2 267.0 1.0 -5.2 keppnger jeff CIN SS 58 214 0.5 394.0 -5.9 -5.4 greene khalil SDP SS 92 343 -10.3 830.3 4.2 -6.1 ryan brendan STL SS 55 158 -7.6 224.7 0.4 -7.2 vizquel omar SFG SS 46 151 -15.7 378.7 8.0 -7.8 tulowtzki troy COL SS 39 151 -14.6 339.3 2.3 -12.2 Hanley is a terrific player. Word is that his defense has legitimately improved, andit does show up here. Jose Reyes has played pretty poorly defensively this year, making careless errors. Omar Vizquel’s glove almost makes him worth keeping around. Cristian Guzman has made a nice recovery after missing considerable time. Rollins is about 100 ABs short, but not performing nearly as well as last season. Catcher Player First Team pos g ab Xra+AA Inn DRS OPD mccann brian ATL C 89 318 25.5 734.0 -0.7 24.9 soto geovany CHC C 88 316 20.0 714.7 0.8 20.7 doumit ryan PIT C 56 207 18.7 445.0 0.8 19.6 martin russell LAD C 93 330 17.5 739.0 -1.5 16.0 kendall jason MIL C 86 291 1.2 757.7 8.2 9.4 iannetta chris COL C 52 168 9.2 400.3 -1.5 7.7 snyder chris ARI C 64 191 4.6 507.7 0.9 5.5 molina yadier STL C 78 276 3.0 634.3 2.1 5.1 molina bengie SFG C 84 314 0.6 660.0 2.9 3.5 coste chris PHI C 57 165 3.4 368.7 0.0 3.4 flores jesus WAS C 55 178 3.4 410.3 -2.0 1.5 schnider brian NYM C 62 205 -1.7 526.0 3.0 1.3 bako paul CIN C 66 203 -5.1 519.0 2.1 -3.0 treanor matt FLA C 54 183 -3.1 465.3 -0.9 -4.0 towles j.r. HOU C 48 136 -9.4 374.7 1.8 -7.6 ausmus brad HOU C 53 144 -8.2 365.7 0.2 -8.0 torralba yorvi COL C 52 185 -8.4 456.0 0.1 -8.3 bard josh SDP C 38 130 -6.7 313.7 -4.1 -10.8 ruiz carlos PHI C 66 193 -13.1 492.3 -1.5 -14.5 Brian McCann and Geovany Soto are being heralded for their season. And they should be, but there are Ryan Doumit and Russell Martin right there. Martin will get his due, but Doumit is having a solid year. Jason Kendall is throwing out runners at a tremendous pace. That rate has made him into a good player, up from being a decent player. I am somewhat surprised that the Molinas aren’t dominating the throwing rates, but they are not. Brother Jose is in the AL though. Left Field Player First Team pos g ab Xra+AA Inn DRS OPD burrell pat PHI LF 94 313 24.2 700.0 5.2 29.3 holliday matt COL LF 79 309 20.0 691.1 2.4 22.4 bay jason PIT LF 92 341 23.4 785.1 -6.1 17.3 dunn adam CIN LF 91 290 16.9 698.1 -0.7 16.2 soriano alfonso CHC LF 51 212 7.2 426.2 2.5 9.7 hairston scott SDP LF 82 255 5.7 289.1 2.5 8.3 braun ryan MIL LF 92 377 7.3 777.2 -0.5 6.9 lewis fred SFG LF 92 324 3.4 624.2 3.5 6.8 willnghm josh FLA LF 44 158 7.4 347.1 -4.2 3.2 duncan chris STL LF 72 212 -4.9 306.2 4.9 0.0 lee carlos HOU LF 94 358 15.2 724.0 -16.0 -0.8 schmker skip STL LF 89 311 -0.6 271.1 -0.5 -1.0 harris willie WAS LF 79 145 -1.7 162.0 0.1 -1.6 pierre juan LAD LF 73 274 -8.1 547.0 5.0 -3.1 gonzalz luis FLA LF 88 241 -0.4 421.2 -7.3 -7.7 byrnes eric ARI LF 52 206 -14.8 420.2 4.2 -10.6 pena wily_mo WAS LF 64 195 -20.7 399.0 -1.9 -22.5 Pat Burrell has been the best LF in the game so far this year. No ASG for him. He’s also got the best defensive stats through the ASB. There is some park effect here that isn’t defined yet, and that is for Carlos Lee. He’s going to gain a handful of runs back, boosting him from about average to above average. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not going to be a good fielder, just not quite that bad. I don’t like cookie-cutter ballparks, but they make defensive analysis easier. The Pirates may end up trading Jason Bay. The Mets should get on that if they aren’t going to sign Bonds. Center Field Player First Team pos g ab Xra+AA Inn DRS OPD beltran carlos NYM CF 94 355 17.8 808.0 7.2 25.0 ankiel rick STL CF 83 307 15.4 680.3 -0.1 15.3 ross cody FLA CF 81 244 10.6 479.0 4.3 14.8 mclouth nate PIT CF 90 367 24.1 774.0 -10.3 13.8 hairston jerry CIN CF 56 188 11.5 82.7 1.5 13.0 gerut jody SDP CF 61 201 6.0 390.7 6.2 12.2 splborghs ryan COL CF 72 185 11.1 117.7 -2.2 8.9 victorino shane PHI CF 82 319 4.2 648.3 4.4 8.5 kemp matt LAD CF 89 338 4.8 431.0 1.5 6.2 rowand aaron SFG CF 90 330 4.6 756.0 0.9 5.6 cameron mike MIL CF 59 216 5.6 507.7 -0.2 5.4 bruce jay CIN CF 44 163 0.9 176.0 1.5 2.4 johnson reed CHC CF 63 205 -0.8 342.0 -0.7 -1.6 amezaga alfredo FLA CF 73 182 -1.3 320.3 -0.5 -1.8 blanco gregor ATL CF 82 261 0.6 358.7 -3.2 -2.6 edmonds jim SDP/CHC CF 70 224 1.4 536.7 -4.4 -2.9 young chris_b ARI CF 94 377 -10.3 824.3 4.4 -5.9 kotsay mark ATL CF 58 208 -4.2 467.7 -2.1 -6.4 milledge lastings WAS CF 80 302 -6.8 696.7 -1.3 -8.1 patterson corey CIN CF 75 199 -13.0 400.0 2.9 -10.1 taveras willy COL CF 80 292 -9.7 582.7 -0.7 -10.4 jones andruw LAD CF 53 165 -14.4 387.3 0.7 -13.7 bourn michael HOU CF 89 326 -14.6 693.0 -6.4 -21.0 Carlos Beltran was not at the All-Star Game. Rick Ankiel, considering this is his rookie position player season, is having a great year. I like seeing Cody Ross on the board. I suspect few people have seen and can appreciate how good he is. Jay Bruce is making a good showing too. For a young rookie, he’s hanging tough. For once Andruw Jones is posting a good DRS - and his bat is atrocious. Right Field Player First Team pos g ab Xra+AA Inn DRS OPD ludwick ryan STL RF 87 298 20.0 519.7 0.5 20.5 giles brian SDP RF 84 319 11.0 729.7 6.4 17.4 nady xavier PIT RF 82 305 13.2 669.7 0.7 13.8 church ryan NYM RF 57 205 9.4 453.3 0.8 10.2 ethier andre LAD RF 85 307 6.5 474.0 2.7 9.2 werth jayson PHI RF 69 214 7.1 247.0 0.6 7.7 fukudome kosuke CHC RF 90 326 4.8 723.3 2.9 7.7 winn randy SFG RF 90 330 4.4 696.7 1.3 5.7 hart corey MIL RF 93 357 3.9 797.0 0.4 4.4 hermida jeremy FLA RF 84 333 -2.8 698.3 6.3 3.5 dukes elijah WAS RF 52 175 4.2 366.7 -2.3 1.9 griffey ken CIN RF 90 315 -2.5 649.0 -0.5 -3.0 chavez endy NYM RF 78 201 -10.7 281.0 6.1 -4.7 pence hunter HOU RF 92 357 -8.7 797.0 1.0 -7.7 upton justin ARI RF 83 277 0.8 696.0 -8.8 -8.0 jenkins geoff PHI RF 77 232 -10.5 495.7 0.4 -10.2 kearns austin WAS RF 52 185 -11.4 454.0 0.7 -10.7 hawpe brad COL RF 77 262 2.5 653.3 -13.7 -11.2 franco'r jeff ATL RF 90 355 -18.5 784.3 -2.8 -21.3 Wow, that Jeff Francoeur is something special. Ryan Ludwick is enjoying a good season too. I am glad he got an All-Star slot. Brian Giles is toiling in anonymity still. His whole career has lacked the publicity it deserves. Elijah Dukes is playing pretty well for Washington. If Ryan Church can get back healthy, he could be a difference maker for the Mets. Jayson Werth is one player I’d like to see get a full season. I like the cut of his jib. MVP Chase Player First Team pos g ab Xra+AA Inn DRS OPD jones chipper ATL 3B 83 298 38.6 659.7 9.9 48.6 berkman lance HOU 1B 93 334 37.7 751.7 6.5 44.2 pujols albert STL 1B 82 286 35.3 660.7 8.9 44.1 utley chase PHI 2B 94 364 29.0 815.0 8.5 37.5 ramirez hanley FLA SS 93 373 40.6 800.3 -3.9 36.7 uggla dan FLA 2B 81 301 29.9 703.7 1.8 31.7 burrell pat PHI LF 94 313 24.2 700.0 5.2 29.3 beltran carlos NYM CF 94 355 17.8 808.0 7.2 25.0 mccann brian ATL C 89 318 25.5 734.0 -0.7 24.9 holliday matt COL LF 79 309 20.0 691.1 2.4 22.4 soto geovany CHC C 88 316 20.0 714.7 0.8 20.7 ludwick ryan STL RF 87 298 20.0 519.7 0.5 20.5 doumit ryan PIT C 56 207 18.7 445.0 0.8 19.6 reyes jose NYM SS 93 393 22.7 824.0 -4.4 18.3 giles brian SDP RF 84 319 11.0 729.7 6.4 17.4 bay jason PIT LF 92 341 23.4 785.1 -6.1 17.3 Those are the top 16. Two Pirates in there. There are the reasons the Marlins are in the hunt. The Cardinals big bats are in there. Utley and Burrell for the Phillies. I think the top four will be the ones at the end as well. Beltran has had a first half power outage, so if he gets hot, he could jump up. Burrell and Uggla both had big first halfs, so expect them to regress. All in all, it’s going to be very exciting. |
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1. Frisco Cali Posted: July 17, 2008 at 12:29 AM (#2861827)Geez.
Is there a park effect there? All the Rockies outfielders rate below zero except Holliday, who has a mediocre 2.4 despite generally positive defensive reviews.
Of course, Chipper missed the same amount of time and is 4.5 runs ahead of either. Damned Chipper.
Chris I know you've done some "career" totals (i.e. for the years you have data) -- where is Vizquel for his career?
I am stunned that somehow Michael Bourn has managed to be worse overall than Andruw Jones. I've had more value to the Dodgers this year than Jones.
1B is particularly interesting to me. Probably fairly typical but ignore the top 2, and everyone's within 14 runs of one another. An interesting mean vs. median example possibly. But think of it from a GM's perspective. You need to replace a 1B, you can't get Pujols or Berkman -- basically you might as well weight offense and defense equally.
Yes, and for $18 million less.
Don't remind me. I'd have settled for 1 year at $4M but my agent kept telling me I could get Pierre's contract.
Thanks Brattain!
Well, technically, even if Ankiel had never pitched, he had too many at-bats last year to be considered a rookie this season.
Really?
I question a rating system that has Reggie Abercrombie at the top.
Somebody please talk to me about the positional adjustments (?) on defense. Is a good 1B that much more valuable than a mediocre SS?
It could be:
1. An artifact of nothing, and 7 of the 8 best players in baseball are in the NL.
2. An artifact of the NL being the weaker league. Ut is easier for truly great players to create a lot of separation from league average when league average is set lower.
I think it's mostly #2, but who knows.
It's even harder for Pujols and Berkman because they are being compared to each other.
bibigon has it pretty well answered in #28. When there are more tams in a league, there will be a lower average (as they have to start two guys that wouldn't have jobs in the AL). That inherently gives an advantage to the top players.
1B - Pujols
2B - Utley
3B - ARod
SS - HRamirez
LF - Holliday
CF - Beltran/Sizemore (tie)
RF - Dunno - but I would actually give it to Brian Giles
C - Mauer
P - Santana
The top players at each position do largely reside in the NL.
Data not counting the allstar game?
Hey! #### you kevin!
The Mets don't have enough to get Bay.
Is this true? The NL and the AL both draw players from the same pool of talent. Just because the NL has more teams, that doesn't mean the average player should be any worse. If you moved two teams from the NL to the AL, the AL average likely wouldn't change. Or, more accurately, it would be just as likely to go up as to go down, depending on which teams you moved.
I think it is likely one of these three:
1. The NL is the weaker league and has more variance of players as a result.
2. Some guys who aren't really this good (Berkman, Chipper) are having out-of-this-world seasons so far.
3. The NL may have a greater concentration of superstars than the AL at this time, despite being the overall weaker league.
it doesn't *have* to, but given the teams and typical spread of payrolls, I think it is likely to.
OK, but this is more about which teams are in the AL vs. which teams are in the NL. I don't think it has anything to do with the number of teams in the league.
Those guys are really good. I man, players spike all the time. I think those two are closer to their true talent than someone like Dan Uggla.
Yeah, didn't mean to imply otherwise. I actually didn't realize Uggla had been "better" than all but one AL player.
Chipper and Berkman are both really good players, but not this good. Still, Chipper is 21 points ahead of his all-time best OPS+ and Berkman is 25 points ahead of his. And that's part of my point. The guys who are having career years in the NL were already really good players. In the AL, that is not really true. Ian Kinsler having a career year is like Chase Utley having a normal year.
Chris, one interesting thing about the NL is that the top offsneive players seem, with a few exceptions, to be having really good defensive seasons as well. In the AL, that is less true.
1. Adjusted batting runs picked from the pocket of Sean Forman.
2. Pretty much same as you (I would guess), although I don't separate the leagues, which obviously has a notable impact at positions where one league's defenders are appreciably better than the other's.
Why didn't Brian Roberts make your list of AL leaders?
Because I'm a total clod, apparently. It's been fixed.
Are you reading and using my article on Zone Rating and how to calculate runs from it?
No, by "same as you" I just meant "I also converted Zone Rating to runs." I have my own convoluted method of estimating chances that makes me a unique snowflake.
You can get actual chances from SI from 2002 on.
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