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Dialed In — Friday, November 04, 2005The 2005 No Glove, No Love AwardsThe 2005 No Glove, No Love Awards
Many people don’t care much for the Gold Glove awards. Dan Szymborski has been pointing out that fielders win multiple awards more often than they win the award once for nearly a decade. It’s not the best voting system, but what the heck – it gives us something with which to pass the time during the off-season.
(Runs above average for player’s playing time)
These are nice selections. Texeira had a good season. Hudson has been a good second baseman. Eric Chavez has been a great defender his whole career. The whole AL outfield has great defensive reputations.
In the NL, the OF has the good reps. The infield is some kind of mish-mash of “I don’t have any idea who to vote for” feel to it. Omar Vizquel was a great fielder a decade ago. Derrek Lee is a very good fielder. Castillo and Lowell? Sounds like as good of a guess as anything else. Of course Greg Maddux won. I suspect he’ll win the year after he retires as well.
But were these picks really any good? I mean, Derek Jeter? I can hear Statheads’ brains sizzling over that.
With so much time on people’s hands these days, lots of people have taken to developing their own defensive evaluation systems. I developed one about 8 years ago. David Gassko (Primate: DSG) at The Hardball Times has one. Most of us are familiar with MGL’s UZR system. Even Primate “Chone” Smith (Primate: Rallymonkey) has worked one up.
Does it help to have multiple systems? Most likely. If two systems agree, it could be a coincidence. If three agree, maybe you have something. If four agree, I think there’s a good chance the fielding has been reasonably quantitated.
Sort of.
Of the listed systems, the MGL, Smith and Dial methods get their start from STATS ZR. But MGL’s system changes direction immediately. DSG’s system uses only traditional statistics to generate his data – this is a critical need to do any work pre-1990 or so.
You can read about DSG’s, MGL’s and “Chone’s” and see what you think.
The MLB Gold Glovers: Position American League National League 1B Texeira (+6) Lee (+0) 2B Hudson (+2) L. Castillo (+4) 3B Chavez (+13) Lowell (-1) SS Jeter (+1) Vizquel (+11) OF V. Wells (+6) A. Jones (-0) OF Hunter (-0) Edmonds (+4) OF Suzuki (-2) Abreu (-6) C Varitek (-4) Matheny (+11) P Rogers Maddux Here are mine: Position American League National League 1B Erstad (+9) Helton (+9) 2B Ellis (+11) Utley (+19) 3B Chavez (+13) Atkins (+6) SS Uribe (+9) Jack Wilson (+16) LF Crawford (+10) Floyd (+9) CF Rowand (+13) Clark (+5) RF Rios (+9) Burnitz (+8) C I. Rodriguez (+16) Y. Molina (+14) Pitchers? Um, Jim Kaat? I’d actually agree with both MLB selections. Both Rogers and Maddux are historically good fielders and their stats actually support their selections.
The question is why are the rest of these guys my selections, and why do I think the winners weren’t right?
We’ll go slot by slot:
1B: Texeira is a fine selection. I think Erstad was a bit better, but it is a quibble, and Tex is a good fielder. In the NL, Helton had a much better season than Lee defensively. There’s no doubt Lee is a good fielder, as is Albert Pujols and Doug Mientkiewicz, but this season, Helton was the best.
2B: Plenty of AL fans praise Orlando Hudson’s defense, and I think it may be the turf. I’m not saying he isn’t a good fielder, but Mark Ellis has been very good for several years, and I think he got utterly robbed. But not as bad as Chase Utley. Utley is a big guy, and hits lots of home runs, so he can’t possibly be a good fielder. Well, he is, and he too got the shaft. However, Mark Grudzielanek and Craig Counsell also had good seasons, so either of them would have been a pretty good choice. But Luis Castillo?
3B: Eric Chavez is a good fielder. He looks like a good fielder and his stats say he is a good fielder. He has been one of the tops in the AL for most of his career. No controversy to be had here, even when Chavez is injured, he’s still very good. There was some disappointment in the selection of Torii Hunter because he missed a bunch of games. I would like to award the NL 3B NGNL to Scott Rolen. Bottom line is, Scott was the best fielder going into the season, and even though he only started 55 games, he was the best defensive third baseman in the NL this season. However, he simply didn’t play enough innings. It’s not strong year at the hot corner with Rolen out, so I’ll award the NGNL to a Met – David Wright. Not really. In a coin toss, I vote for Garrett Atkins of the Colorado Rockies. In my heart, I want to vote for Rolen.
SS: Plenty of concern in the AL for the NGNL. Derek Jeter wasn’t the worst player ever, but he wasn’t anywhere near the best. Juan Uribe looked like one of the best in the World Series and his fans were saying he should win the award, and my ratings support that assertion. In the NL, Omar Vizquel was pretty good, but Jack Wilson was significantly better. Adam Everett was very good as well. I am entertained that two of the top shortstops were in the World Series.
LF: The AL had two runaway left fielders for this award. The other guy got the nod in other systems, but here, Carl Crawford gets the nod based on more innings and more chances. Crawford and Coco Crisp were nearly a dead heat. Cliff Floyd has looked terrible in LF in the past, hobbling around on sore legs. Floyd was healthy this year and showed off a much more youthful energy in the field. He also led the NL in assists. Sometimes less than stellar fielders have good years with the gloves, just like they have good years with the bat.
CF: They say you have to be strong up the middle. The Chicago White Sox were just that. Aaron Rowand was the top centerfielder. To be fair, it was very close with Jeremy Reed of the Mariners, but Rowand played 200 more innings. Rowand should have been recognized for this award before. He’s been one of the best since his first day in the league. The NL was a mish-mash of average performers. Jim Edmonds is a fine choice from the coaches, but I am giving the nod to Brady Clark, who just edges Edmonds and Corey Patterson out.
RF: The AL RF award is going to be tough to wrestle away from Ichiro Suzuki, but he’s not, and hasn’t been at any point in his career, the best right fielder in the American League. He’s a fine outfielder, but he’s not the best at all. For this past season, Alexis Rios prevented the most runs defensively and picks up the hardware. In the NL, again there were no clear standouts. Austin Kearns had another great year, and given the chance, could be one of the best defensive right fielders in the game. However, Kearns didn’t play enough innings to outweigh the performance of Jeromy Burnitz. Burnitz doesn’t generally give off the appearance of a good fielder, but he had a good season.
C: Ivan Rodriguez. It’s a stunner. Pudge is truly a great catcher. I suspect he’ll make the Hall of Fame. I am surprised voters would give it to anyone else, much less a mediocrity like Varitek. Yadier Molina slips past Mike Matheny for the NL crown. Matheny is a defensible choice – he is a good catcher and was second in runs prevented.
The St. Louis Cardinals had some outstanding defense: Edmonds, Grudzielanek, Rolen, Molina all could have won the No Glove, No Love Award.
In case some of you were curious, Eckstein was slightly below average (-4).
It’s clear to me that the biggest robbery was Chase Utley not getting any love for his great season. If the Phillies get over the top next year, Utley will be the reason. From what I have seen, he is the total package, offense and defense. |
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1. Miko Supports Shane's Spam Habit Posted: November 04, 2005 at 06:57 AM (#1718605)Chris (and Chone): thanks for these articles. It's nice to see this type of article again.
Any chance of getting a more complete listing of your ratings, Chris?
...I want something to show that Buehrle has deserved the Glove for the last two or three years. 'Cause he has.
Sort of.
Of the listed systems, the MGL, Smith and Dial methods get their start from STATS ZR. But MGL’s system changes direction immediately. DSG’s system uses only traditional statistics to generate his data – this is a critical need to do any work pre-1990 or so.
If any of you sabremagicians is looking for a topic for an article, an explanation of why the various statistical methods of evaluating defense don't always identify the same players as being elite would be appreciated.
So you've already chosen your conclusion and are now simply asking for evidence to justify it?
There will be proffered explanations. Correlations will abound.
Please read the discussion after my D-## article for possible difference explanations.
LABHW - the pre tags don't appear to work in the preview. I'm an idiot.
or instead,
the number of runs this fielder WOULD save behind an average pitching staff (in every regard:quality, handedness, style) in an average field facing an average distribution of hitters?
some of both. I do not adjust for those variables. I think a BIP tends to be a BIP, but part of that is access to generate a proper PF or other factor. MGL does "Park, etc" adjust. It is not dissimilar to a hitting PF.
DSG and Chone use assists, so they generate data that is completely from pouts made by the fielder.
I complete ruin the entire grouping by adjusting the quality of play (a ZR) and normalize all fielders to an equal set of chances, and how they would fair against that. I context-neutral the crap out of it.
Some of my older work went the other way (and I explain that in teh D-## article - I applied an average fielder to the player's chances. Now I apply the player's fielding to average chances. This si solely due to the availability of data, *BUT* my research indicates the difference in those two techniques is <5 runs *at the extremes*. For most fielders, there will be no difference or a difference of 1-2 runs.
If you keep asking such good questions, there will be less left for my next article.
he wants to write a book and/or sell it to a MLB team.
Since zone data is widely available, I can't see why a team would purchse.
Oh, it's bad practice. Downright reprehensible.
...But in this case, yes. There's no question about the Buehr-ster.
have you compared him to the other pitchers at ESPN? Do that and make an argument.
TIA.
Well, not to speak for ol' Bufe, but Buehrle is definitely a better fielder than Rick Sutcliffe. 8-D
Aside, of course, from your irrational dislike for Andruw Jones.
-- MWE
Second that. With his bat if he really saved the most runs in baseball with his glove, well, you'd really have something. Sadly, no.
Career fielding percentages for some pitchers grabbed at random, and divided by the league average for a PCT+ figure ...
Okay, so maybe that doesn't mean a damn thing. Gibson, Kaat, and Langston won 32 Gold Gloves between them, and I don't think anyone thinks they were awarded in error.
According to PMR, Buehrle was pretty good against grounders but pretty bad against bunts in 2004. FWIW.
I don't quite get the hate. :) Prior to seeing him play, I didn't have high expectations of Utley. He doesn't look like your typical 2B and has that funky throwing style. But my eyes tell me that he ranges left very well (lots of diving plays, so I might be overweighting them), is reasonably sure-handed, is okay to his right, feeds the DP ok, turns the DP nicely and has a good overall, if funky, arm for a 2B. Maybe he's not really a +19 in Dial points but I don't have a problem with him defensively at all.
This is correct. It's a rounding thing.
But I changed it from both plain "0" to spite Andruw.
I'm not sure what you mean, Mike. STATS defines the range by zones where >50% of plays are made. I made a slight miscue in my example regarding the difference between PS zones and STATS zones (or I didn't clarify). STATS 3B zone *does* include F. It didn't used to (your recollection is spot on), but it does now. STATS 3B zone is C-F (four zones), rather than a mirror of the 1B zones.
Next posting: "What is ZR?"
I know - it doesn't cover chances, but pitchers effectively *create their own chances*, excepting bunts, which is the catcher's call mostly anyway.
A good fielding pitcher creates chances by snaring balls *most* pitchers miss.
...So, I just make assertions, with no way to ever back them up. Until Win Shares is changed, I guess.
I don't care in the least about the GGs. I will say that Buehrle is an excellent fielder. He has a great move to first and he does handle a lot of comebackers that others miss, at least that's my impression. He generally makes good throws (although that error in Oakland was a throwing error).
As someone pointed out in a postseason Game Chatter (I would give credit if I could remember to whom it is due), White Sox pitchers this year seemed to generally be in good fielding position coming out of their deliveries. Only Neal Cotts seems to really fall off the mound, and even he's in decent fielding position -- he's not twisted around facing away from the plate like some pitchers end up -- but it's not ideal to fall toward third as much as he does.
I was at that game. That was a gut-punch. Ugh.
I'm pretty sure that he led the league in unearned runs, though - I think Westbrook was second with 16.
You're so predictably petty sometimes. It's cute.
And that is absolutely the wrong one to trust. It is heavily based on Range Factor.
-- MWE
I know. But what I don't know is when they make a determination that the zones need to be changed. If basic fielder positioning changes (as I think it has at 3B over the past couple of years), how long does it take for the zones to catch up?
-- MWE
A couple years back, someone (Mike Emeigh? Dan Werr?) wrote a series of long articles (8 of them?) breaking down how each method worked and using Derek Jeter as an example. A few things have changed since, and I don't think it had DSG's system or DRA, but I think the major differences are still mainly the same.
I'd try to track it down, but the author pages don't seem to be working (heck, I had to google Mike just to find the link to BTF author pages).
If a zone on the edge has players make 51% of the plays one year, and 49% the next, do they change this year to year?
Or do they wait for a few seasons before making a switch?
Really? I wouldn't trust defensive Win Shares at all.
It was Mike. I can't find jack in the archives, though ...
I'll catch Mike's here as well.
They evaluate constantly. However, I bet you find the majority of GB singles are through zone G and zone U. As long as that's where hits go, it won't change.
They review regularly, but one fluke season on 51% (WHICH WON"T HAPPEN) because now they have a gaziullion plays.
basic fielder positioning changes (as I think it has at 3B over the past couple of years
I don't think it has...and I think you'll see that the vast majority of balls hit through G are singles.
If you see where the dot is on the STATS grid (which is their positioning assumption for 3B), it's in the middle of D, inside the cutout. Where I've been seeing 3Bs play is just on the "outside" of the cutout, just inside E. (The cutout, the curved portion of the infield between the dirt and grass at the corners, is on the D-E boundary).
-- MWE
I mean, in direct head-to-head competition, he had a lower range factor and turned DPs less often than Placido Polanco during their 2004-2005 time in Philadelphia, and they were standing in front of the same pitching staff.
Either Polanco is Ozzie Smith, or Utley's just not that good.
The fans who filled out Tango's scouting report like Utley. He rated the 3rd best Philly defender behind Rollins and Polanco, with good marks in everything excpet arm strength and accuracy.
Second base is the 2nd best place on the diamond to hide a player with a weak arm. It hurts turning double plays, but the routine throw from 2B can be done by just about anyone.
Boy, what I wouldn't give for pre-registration Primer right about now....
As to the article, I'm sort of surprised to see Brady Clark in CF. I didn't watch all that many Brewer games, but I never heard any buzz about his D. He gets huge points around here for his scrappiness, but that's about it.
Here's my "I could have lived with" list:
AL:
C: Pudge/Mauer
1B: Texiera/Galactic Emperor
2B: Hudson/Ellis
SS: Uribe/O-Cab
3B: Chavez/Crede
OF: Ichiro/Rowand/Crawford/Wells/Reed/Crisp
The biggest scrwejobs of the AL were to Rowand and the SS position.
NL:
C: Matheny/Molina/Schneider
1B: Helton/Lee/Pujols/Douggy Eyechart
2B: Counsell/Grudz
SS: Everett/Wilson/Furcal/Neifinator
3B: Wright/Bell
OF: Edmonds/Burnitz/Francoeur/Johnson
How sad.
Yes, I know he didn't get quite a whole year in, and actually commited a whole four errors, but he's gotta get some recognition one of these days, right?
Do you just want him mentioned - or would you prefer a listing of the starters and their performances?
(Signed)
Derek Jeter
Just being mentioned would have been nice, I think. However, if you wanted to show the performances of all primary starters, I wouldn't object. ;-)
I just think it's a shame that a guy with a career .996 FPCT hasn't ever been serously considered for a GG.
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