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Bill James’ Runs Created Stat
Posted: 04 October 2008 06:06 AM   [ Ignore ]

I understand the formula, and it translates extremely well to actual runs scored.. except what I don’t understand is how. For instance, if a player puts up barry bonds like statistics on a team full of replacement players, wouldn’t the amount of runs decrease by that player? I have no qualms whatsoever with the formula. But, if you can generate the amount of runs created by a single player, could you formulate the numbers based for the rest of the team?

To score runs wouldn’t you need an occasional hit to drive a player in? I know I’m not articulating this the way I want to, but I hope somebody hear has an idea what I’m talking about…

Also, is SLG percentage flawed because it doesn’t take into account for walks? And shouldn’t doubles, triples and home runs be weighted? A triple can not be that much more important than a double, can it? 1,2,3,4 just don’t see like the most accurate numbers to correlate with true slugging percentage. Obviously when doing this, the proverbial goalposts are moved and a .500 slugging percentage may no longer indicate a good number. Any thoughts?

Posted: 09 October 2008 04:32 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]

it depends on *which* runs created formula you use.

When James first published his basic equation, circa 1980—- OBA * total bases = runs; yes, it worked great for teams, and well for individuals in ‘normal’ context, but would not work for Barry Bonds and a group of punchless Giants.

James moved to a team-dependent formula this millenium, which will tell you that Bonds surrounded by smurfs wil not create as many runs.