BBTF's Game Chatter Discussion :: RedSox (1-4) @ Blue Jays (3-2), Wednesday, April 11, 2012, 12:37pm

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Wednesday, April 11, 2012

RedSox (1-4) @ Blue Jays (3-2), Wednesday, April 11, 2012, 12:37pm

BOS:Jon Lester (28, LHP, 0-0, 1.29)
TOR:Ricky Romero (27, LHP, 0-0, 7.20)

The Primer Chimp Posted: April 11, 2012 at 09:06 AM | 86 comment(s)
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1. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4103940)

Once again, ACE!

2. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:40 PM (#4103953)

#### Ells! Run to first!

3. Dale Sams Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4103955)

I know..I know..

4. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4103956)

Giving the balls a ride, but not going anywhere.

5. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4103958)

You know what?

6. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:43 PM (#4103959)

2 warning track flyouts in the first inning. I don't know whether to take that as a sign that the Sox will hit Romero hard, or a sign that nothing is going to break out way today.

7. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:43 PM (#4103960)

Well, we have our ACE going.

8. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4103963)

Quick update on Reddick: 111 OPS+! You're winning so far.

9. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4103965)

I like this aggressive ####. 3 pitches, 2 outs.

10. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4103966)

7 pitches! ACE!

11. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4103972)

It's good to see Lester pitching well in April.

12. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4103973)

Nice play by escobar

13. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4103974)

New Papi needs to lay down a bunt. Is he waiting for a nationally televised game?

14. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4103975)

Is it my imagination or did we lose like every getaway day - day game last year? It feels like every time we have one of these we lose 3-1 or something like that.

15. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4103978)

Well, this is the platoon advantage lineup, right? And this is a pitcher the Sox kill. So where's the killing?

16. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4103985)

Love BV: "don't buy into personal catchers"!

17. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4103989)

Lester's pretty on so far.

18. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4103992)

Is it my imagination or did we lose like every getaway day - day game last year? It feels like every time we have one of these we lose 3-1 or something like that.

Tried to find an answer to this, but I can't find a 2011 schedule with start times.

19. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4103996)

Here comes the killing.

20. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4104000)

Aviles with a base hit. Also, Jenny Dell is still hot.

21. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4104001)

So, am I crazy for liking how Aviles looks at the plate? He makes contact, has some power.

Hate the bunt. Let Shoppach hit the lefty.

22. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4104002)

Stupid bunt.

23. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4104003)

Shoppach has a ####### .900 career OPS vs LHP. Why th efuck are you asking him to bunt>?

24. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4104004)

That was not supposed to be a sacrifice was it? Or was it supposed to be bunt base hit?

25. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:07 PM (#4104010)

I liked the idea of bunting. Shoppach is a pretty good DP candidate and with these two pitchers every run is likely to be at a premium. Play for one and hope to get a couple when Ellsbury or Pedroia singles.

I'm with you on Aviles MCoA. He's too undisciplined to be particularly good but he hits the ball hard...ooh In play, run(s)!!!

26. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:07 PM (#4104011)

I don't at all mind a 12-, 0 out bunt. If the following batter is better than the current batter and the current batter can run, it's a good call.

In this case, Shoppach has no chance of beating out a hit, and has some good history as a lefty masher.

27. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:09 PM (#4104013)

Shoppach is a pretty good DP candidate and with these two pitchers every run is likely to be at a premium.

I think it's too early to presume you can't hang a crooked number on Romero. This isn't Justin Verlander.

28. Dale Sams Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:09 PM (#4104014)

I don't know how Reddick is doing that well, everytime I look he's just kinda 'meh'...I'm still waiting for some hits to drop in for him. He has made some nice assists so far.

29. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4104018)

I don't know how Reddick is doing that well, everytime I look he's just kinda 'meh'...I'm still waiting for some hits to drop in for him. He has made some nice assists so far.

I have a feeling that a .737 OPS won't be a 111OPS+ by the end of the season. It's just early.

30. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4104020)

Reddick has hit a lot of hard hit balls for outs from what I've seen too though. If he keeps hitting the ball as well as he has been hitting it, he'll have higher than a .737 OPS. Of course the issue is that at some point he'll go cold, and Cold Reddick is basically a K/popup machine.

31. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:13 PM (#4104021)

Reddick's wOBA is .317. He's not actually hitting well, though it's certainly early.

Zero walks in five games is a little worrisome, given his history.

32. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:13 PM (#4104022)

(Should have said, "his results haven't actually been good." I haven't seen enough of Reddick's at bats to know how he looks at the plate.)

33. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4104026)

Off to the store, then home to cook. Will be checking in with y'all occasionally.

34. Dale Sams Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4104027)

Re Reddick: I wonder if most baseball players understand the concept of 'woobie'...and if they think it's creepy.

35. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:16 PM (#4104028)

Reddick's wOBA is .317.

I see this being used a lot more. What's the scaling on wOBA? Is it pretty much an OBP scale?

36. Dale Sams Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:17 PM (#4104029)

Thames looks like he eats Dolemite for breakfast.

37. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4104030)

That's the idea. The thing is wOBA isn't park adjusted, so it really shouldn't be used as widely by sabermetric "analysts" as it is. wRC+ is a far more useful and superior stat.

38. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:19 PM (#4104034)

Why does Rajai Davis always kill the Red Sox? He does nothing, ever against any other team, but against the Red Sox he's Rickey Henderson.

39. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4104040)

I see this being used a lot more. What's the scaling on wOBA? Is it pretty much an OBP scale?

It's BA scale, even though they say it's scaled to OBP. .300 is poor. .330 is average. .317 is decent but not great.

40. Dale Sams Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4104046)

Please explain to me how Shoppach is superior to Lavarnway?

41. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4104047)

That's the idea. The thing is wOBA isn't park adjusted, so it really shouldn't be used as widely by sabermetric "analysts" as it is. wRC+ is a far more useful and superior stat.

Tango points out that if OPS+ were to include a slight change in the way it's calculated, it would be "superior" to wOBA.

42. Mattbert Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4104049)

How is that BA scale?

43. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:27 PM (#4104052)

How is that BA scale?

Yeah, looking that over after I wrote it, I thought it didn't sound right. I'm not sure where I got that idea. It's scaled to OBP.

44. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4104054)

Rajai Davis vs Sox, career: .235/.244/.365

45. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:31 PM (#4104059)

He was .323/.323/.484 against them last year, fwiw.

46. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4104064)

Please explain to me how Shoppach is superior to Lavarnway?

Lavarnway is in AAA to get consistent reps so that he can be a full time catcher in the future. It might be a minor downgrade at the platoon catcher position, depending on how good Lavarnway's defense is, but it's a long-term plan they're executing.

No one takes their #4 prospect and makes him the weak side of a platoon. That's tremendously dumb management.

You could ask the question of whether Lavarnway should be starting over both Salty and Shoppy. That's plausible, though I don't think Lavarnway's glove is ready.

47. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:43 PM (#4104082)

So the boys are done playing today apparently? #### it, we got one run and you gave it back so we're just going to roll through a series of 7 pitch innings...####### awesome boys.

48. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4104084)

Seriously, WTH is with the offense?

49. Mattbert Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:54 PM (#4104101)

/facepalm

50. Mattbert Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:56 PM (#4104106)

Most shameless plugging (Shaws) ever, happening on WEEI right now.

51. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4104109)

They promote Shaws like that all the time.

52. Mattbert Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:59 PM (#4104114)

No kidding? I guess I haven't listened to WEEI in about four years, so there you go.

53. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:00 PM (#4104118)

The one thing I'm hanging my hat on is that they've been pretty good about rallying late in games they weren't losing 10-0. Even last night they put up a pretty nice 9th inning fight but for cryin' out loud how about some early runs.

54. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4104126)

Pretty impressive that Lester has allowed 2 hits, neither home runs, and both guys scored.

55. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:10 PM (#4104144)

This is a hell of a pitching job by Lester and Romero. No baserunners since the third inning.

56. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:14 PM (#4104149)

I feel like I'm watching the Mariners offense rather than the Red Sox. They can't put anything together offensively.

57. Mattbert Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4104163)

First pitch outs are the new market inefficiency.

58. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4104164)

I'm glad Ross, Aviles, and Shoppach mash lefties, otherwise they'd be worthless.

59. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4104165)

This is the best platoon lineup for a lefty right?

60. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4104167)

Hey that fried chicken isn't going to stay warm forever!

61. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4104169)

If this team is anything other than 1-9 by the time the winners cross the finish line on Monday I'll be stunned. I think there is a better chance we get no hit this weekend than there is of us doing anything remotely competent against the Tampa pitching.

62. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:29 PM (#4104175)

I have to say that I think Farrell should go to Santos for the 9th. He's got to get him straightened out, can't leave him in the bullpen, it's a save situation, gotta give him the ball. Yup, that's it. Gotta give the ball to Santos.

63. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4104178)

This is the best platoon lineup for a lefty right?

Theoretically, though Romero has reverse splits. But that still means Shop > Salty, and probably Sweeney still worse than Ross or McDonald since Sweeney is totally inept against LHP. Lefties with no big platoon split like Ellsbury, Gonzo, Ortiz, should do well against Romero, theoretically.

64. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4104179)

Santos is out of town for the birth of his child, IIRC. Even if they did go to the pen, it'd be Cordero, likely.

65. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:31 PM (#4104181)

When is the last time the Sox played a game under 2 hours?

66. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4104183)

Well then he has to get Cordero in there! It's just bad managing not to go to the Closer with a lead in the 9th!

67. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:33 PM (#4104187)

Lester allowed 3 baserunners on 2 hits in 7 2/3 innings. The Jays scored 2 runs. How many shitty ways can this team find to lose ballgames?

4 now.

68. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:34 PM (#4104191)

This team is a ####### joke.

69. Mattbert Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:35 PM (#4104194)

Lord beer me strength.

70. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4104195)

3 hits, 3 runs.

71. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:37 PM (#4104196)

First time in his career Lester has pitched consecutive quality starts in his first two starts.

72. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:37 PM (#4104198)

If fried chicken and beer gets them 90 wins someone call the caterer.

73. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:40 PM (#4104203)

Come on boys, how about another dramatic 9th!

74. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4104208)

Just for the record, NOT in favor of the 1st and 2nd, no out bunt now.

75. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:44 PM (#4104209)

What are the odds that Gonzalez DOESN'T gidp? 20%?

76. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:47 PM (#4104216)

Now Youk hits a sac fly, and they lose on the margin of Davis scoring after stealing 2nd despite being picked off.

77. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:48 PM (#4104219)

Verlander is absolutely dominating the Rays.

78. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4104220)

Could've sworn I read that Santos was out of town until Friday. Guess he's back early?

79. Textbook Editor Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:50 PM (#4104221)

IBB Ortiz to face McDonald?

80. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4104222)

Wow, it was the wrong move to pitch to him but it worked.

81. Dan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:53 PM (#4104225)

Odds this team gets booed on Opening Day at Fenway? 80%?

82. Textbook Editor Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:53 PM (#4104226)

Guess not.

So... This year's bad start seems a bit better than last year's bad start.

[/grasping at straws]

83. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 03:00 PM (#4104237)

So... This year's bad start seems a bit better than last year's bad start.

I don't feel that way at all. I felt like last year's team was excellent and would come around, I don't feel that way about this team right now. I don't think they're going 75-87 (and I don't really think they'll be 1-9) but at the same time I don't look at this team and think "at some point in the near future they are just going to take off running."

84. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: April 11, 2012 at 03:04 PM (#4104243)

Odds this team gets booed on Opening Day at Fenway? 80%?

Boston fans aren't such shortsighted ######## are they?

85. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 11, 2012 at 03:06 PM (#4104247)

I don't think they'll get booed right out of the gate but if they don't get the job done they'll hear it. Beckett gets the start and if he gets knocked around he's going to get lit up pretty good.

86. mathesond Posted: April 11, 2012 at 08:57 PM (#4104542)

Santos' baby is due on Friday, he's flying out Thursday

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