Gut check Monday

Rather that doing any sort of write, I thought I’d list out a bunch of things I like, or didn’t like, or felt, after the first 2 games; plus how I feel about tonight’s game.

Things to like:
1. Javy.  It really speaks to how far he’s come all the ways he’s making an impact.  Sure, I’d love for him to run out of the box sprinting every time (more on that late), but he’s been exactly what the Cubs needed at the bottom of the lineup.  He hasn’t even had to do too much defensively yet, but the ...

Five minute non-specific opponent playoff preview

I’ll write a little more after the NL WC game on Wednesday, once we know who the Cubs are playing (quick thought - I don’t have a preference; both the Mets and Giants have obvious strengths and ways they could beat the Cubs, and also plenty of weaknesses and reasons the Cubs can beat them).  In the meantime, here’s some quick thoughts about how things are looking.  First though, 103 wins.  Wow.  I hope we can fully appreciate how great this season way, regardless of how this month turns out.  ...

Fear, Worry, and Overthinking

Since the Cubs actually cliched, and even well before that when it was inevitable, I found it easy to push a bunch of minor concerns out of my mind.  Usually a quick “Yeah, but that won’t matter until October” was enough to mentally move on.  Now that the playoffs are just a (long, long) week away, the doubts have started creeping back in.  So, in the remaining 8 days until the Cubs play their next meaningful game, here are the things that worry me.

1. This:

We interrupt your regularly ...

Projected Playoff Roster

We’ve talked about this off and on in so many different threads and chatters, figured it was time to create a dedicated thread now that the Cubs have clinched.  I’ll put any new predictions in the comments.  But this is what I’m guessing will be the roster, not what I want it to be.

Starters:
Contreras
Rizzo
Baez
Russell
Bryant
Zobrist
Fowler
Heyward

I think we’re going to see Baez start at either 3b (for Lester’s start, with Bryant in LF) or 2b (the other guys, with Zobrist in LF) for the ...

Just Enjoy It

WIth the end of the season fast approaching, there’s going to be plenty of stressful moments and opportunities for second guessing.  Whether the Cubs keep winning in October or not, I’ve found now is really a good time to just sit back and enjoy what we’ve seen over the last few years.  Obviously the title would be the ultimate, but I am at the point where I wouldn’t want to change places with any other fandom. 

Sometimes it’s just fun to step back and consider the numbers.  It’s only ...

Is that good?

Kris Bryant has 12 WAR thru his first two seasons in the league. That's really, really good https://t.co/IwYl54X428 pic.twitter.com/RgMPFkib51

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) August 24, 2016

Can he move into 2nd by the end of the year?

What the FIP?

The Cubs pitching has been statistically extreme in some interesting ways.

First, let’s look at FIP.  FIP (“fielding independent pitching”) attempts to capture a pitcher’s performance, in a term similar to ERA, that does not depend on the fickle fate of balls hit in play. As a team, the Cubs have greatly outperformed their team FIP, posting a 3.13 team ERA (best in MLB), compared to 3.80 FIP (fourth in MLB).  I believe the last time a team finished the season with a higher difference was 2002, ...

Dog Days of Summer

I haven’t had a lot of specific things to write, and we’ve gotten our fair share of threads lately, but I still thought I’d put up a new open post and people can take it whatever direction they’d like.

Some random assorted thoughts…

- How about Javy Baez?  His defense has been even better than I could have imagined.  He’ll make the occasional error, either on a play he tries to force or where someone isn’t expecting him to make the throw, but I could only imagine what his defensive numbers ...

Another Direction with Andere Richtingen

This post comes from another long time poster, Andere Richtingen, who can’t seem to locate his keys to the blog.

The Cubs hit a bit of a rough spot the last three weeks, going 6-15.  On June 19th, the team hit its apex so far for the season, completing a three-game sweep of the Pirates at Wrigley. They led the division by 12.5 games, an achievement the team hadn’t made since 1929, and had a record of 47-20.  That sweep completed a 15-6 stretch, after which things fell apart.  Really fell ...

Midseason Prospect Check-in

Rather that just look up a bunch of stats for guys that I really haven’t seen at all, I’ll just link to the excellent write-up from Cubs Den on the first half for the Cubs prospects. 

At the same time, we want to give credit to those players who have made a breakthrough early in 2016.  I’ve had the good fortune to see all of these players since February, so I know that the breakthrough seasons of Eloy Jimenez, Bryan Hudson, and Trevor Clifton —or those of sleepers like PJ Higgins, Jesus ...

Finally, part 2

Patrick Mooney ‏@CSNMooney 15s15 seconds ago
#Cubs put Clayton Richard (blister) on DL and option Adam Warren to Iowa with intent to stretch him out to make start before All-Star break.

Gordon Wittenmyer ‏@GDubCub 3m3 minutes ago
RHP Spencer Patton recalled. LHP Gerardo Concepcion also called up for big-league debut.

The bullpen is all of a sudden very young and inexperienced.  Here’s hoping at least one of these guys (this includes Edwards) really stands out and can stay on the ...

Finally

The Cubs have finally made one of the more obvious and inevitable moves with their roster this season.  No, not that one, the other one.  Tim Federowicz isn’t on the team anymore.  He’s been replaced as the third catcher by Willson Contreras, arguably the Cubs best prospect.  Contreras had absolutely dominated AAA this year, hitting .350/.439/.591, with only 32Ks in 239PAs.  His bat appears the be the real deal.  The only thing that was holding him back was the Cubs’ belief that he needed more ...

Off Day Musings

Just a quick post about a couple of things on my mind lately.

Addison Russell

On May 14th, Addison Russell was hitting .263/.375/.447 and was looking like he was on his way to a legit breakout season.  He was in the middle of an amazing hot streak, going .323/.447/.597 over his previous 17 games.  However, since that game, he’s hit .184/.225/.211 with 30Ks in 76PAs.  His season K% is now only down slightly to 30% after 31.3% last year.  It’s not so much the slump that concerns me, but the ...

Soler

For those who didn’t see it last night, Soler left the game in the 3rd inning after a single.  He pulled up rounding first; earlier in the game he’d made a great defensive play on a running/jumping catch at the wall.  Jorge has a history of hamstring problems, and is getting an MRI today.  Rumors are that if Jorge has to go on the DL, Almora would get the call.  I would hope that means he’s coming up to play - and preferably CF, even though I really don’t expect that - and not just watch ...

Prospect Update

I don’t actively follow the minor leagues, and haven’t seen any of these guys plays this year yet.  But I thought it would be interesting to look at how the top prospects for the Cubs have been doing so far this year, and also to talk about which ones the Cubs should keep and which are possible trade bait.  As for what the Cubs should trade for, feel free to add your suggestions or packages you think it would take to get these guys. 

I’ve been banging the drum for some time for a young, cost ...

Regression and Perspective

I tend to think that sometimes “regression” is used too broadly when talking about a really good or really bad team.  I know that it has a very specific meaning in statistics and projections, but part of my mind always goes to the non-statistical definition: “a return to a former or less developed state.”  That’s probably a poor way of saying that we really shouldn’t be surprised that the Cubs have started looking downright mortal.  For the season, the Cubs are down to 5.5 runs/g (6.2 in April, ...

Roster Construction

I tend to be quite forgiving of most moves that Maddon or the Cubs make these days.  I mean, in some sense they’ve earned that benefit of the doubt, and it’s nice feeling comfortable that there appears to be an underlying reason for everything they do even if it doesn’t appear obvious or isn’t fully explained publicly.  However, the Cubs appear to be doing a less-than-perfect job of maximizing their 25 man roster.

The most obvious culprit is currently rostering 3 catchers.  I partially ...

This and That

Some assorted thoughts about the last week, in no particular order.

Addison Russell

Wow, does he look good right now.  His season line is up to .263/.375/.447, and his K% is down from over 28% last year to just under 20%.  His walk rate has jumped from 8% to 14%.  He’s really been driving the ball lately, and driving it to RF.  He actually had a bad April (.214/.341/.343) but has really been on fire in May (.341/.431/.614).  During his spring training power surge, I predicted 20HRs for him ...

Jake

There’s a million different ways to talk about how dominant Arrieta has been recently:

Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka May 3
Jake Arrieta’s last 26 regular season starts:
0 Runs allowed: 14
1 Run allowed:    6
2+ Runs allowed: 6

Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka May 3
Jake Arrieta ERA (regular season):
1.62 in 2015-16
0.85 in last 26 starts
0.55 in last 18 starts
1.46 on road in 2015-16
0.84 in 2016

Most of them usually include some sort of “since X”, with X being sometime last year.  That ...

I Am Fine with This

As Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer assemble a 2012 team that looks to be, well, not very good, I find myself in an odd state of mind.  Of their six biggest contributors in terms of WAR in 2011, four (Matt Garza, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Peña, Sean Marshall) are either gone or apparently on their way out, and in no case does it appear that the Cubs have clearly superior short- or long-term replacements.  Ramirez was one of three 10 and 5 players on the 2011 team. Only one, Ryan Dempster, is likely to ...

GM Candidates

Now that the Cubs have finally fired Jim Hendry, I thought it’d be a good time to see if this blog thing still works.  I’ve decided to create a thread listing the potential candidates, and anytime I see any sort of update, I’ll put it in this thread.  If I miss a story, please feel free to add it yourself.

The early candidates include:
Billy Beane
Brian Cashman
Andrew Friedman
Rick Hahn.

Buster Olney mentioned on BBTN last night that he believes the top 3 are the Cubs top choices, while a lot ...