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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Wednesday, March 27, 20192019 Season PredictionsI suck at these, but they’re always fun to revisit after the season to get an idea of my state of mind from Spring Training. 1. Bryant will finish top 3 in the MVP voting. I’ve been saying for years he was going to put together a truly monster season, and he looked on his way last year before his shoulder injury. I’m talking something .300+/.420/.600. Let’s say 94 wins. Add your win total predictions, plus any other bold ones to this thread. Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: March 27, 2019 at 04:56 PM | 164 comment(s)
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FWIW, since you all love my OOTP predictions... Q started my 2019 play through in god mode - he threw 5 consecutive CG shutouts to begin the season, including a No Decision where he pitched 11 scoreless innings (so, I suppose, 4 CGs... friggin Carl gave up a lead-off HR to lose it when I decided 130 pitches was enough).
I'm going to take another day to do my list...
I’m okay with what the Cubs did (not) do in the off-season — I think success comes first from internal development of players, and second through the trade and free agency routes. The Cubs know how to do the former, and have built a successful roster doing so. But they were forced to overspend in the latter categories for the sake of short-term success. Now they are in a lag phase with regard to player development, and deciding not to over-extend in terms of free agency, with trade opportunities limited. We can reasonably argue that the Cubs are being too cheap, but I believe this underlying model applies in a general sense.
Another factor in my view is that the Cubs are still a pretty good team. I look at a 94-win prediction and think, they could do that, or even better. But I also recall the team entering the doldrums for periods in the last two seasons, and my overall gut feeling is that they are less equipped to come out of that this year. .
Per annual tradition: Kyle Schwarber is a breakout candidate and Lester is a collapse candidate. Personally I am rooting for Bote to figure it out so Baez can move to SS.
Bold prediction: Heyward produces 2.0+ bWAR. Pleeeeeease?
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
Contreras
Bote 2b
Zobrist DH
Heyward
Zagunis LF
Makes sense against a LHP, though I still would rather see Schwarber in there against LHP then Heyward - at least early on.
Duensing cleared waivers (shockingly!) and will go to AAA; guess that now means there's an unfortunate chance he makes the majors this year.
Now hopefully Bote and Zagunis hit two home runs apiece and lead the Cubs to a 14-2 Opening Day victory and make me look like an idiot.
I think #16 is in conflict with #17-18, because I agree with the latter two in a big picture sense, but I think Happ will be the guy that's dealt. He seems like a guy the Cubs are just not really feeling any more patience for, and it's easy to see him knocking the crap out of the ball in AAA and being part of a deal.
91 wins.
Including Happ in the deal doesn't satisfy #18. Happ's not on the Opening Day 25-man roster.
Darvish had a horrible game, which looked very similar to last year. I don't know what the answer there is, but that's maybe the thing that worries me the most. It's one thing if he's hurt, like last year. But now that he's healthy? Awful.
Hamels doesn't worry me as much. Partially, because he was just ###### over that inning; he had gotten when should have been an inning ending K at least twice. Now, that brings back last year's issue and the whole "framing" problems both Contreras and Caratini have. I noticed it all weekend - and it's not just the balls "stolen" as strike calls; it's the sheer number of clear strikes that are called balls against the Cubs. It's maddening. Considering both guys spent most of their development time in the Cubs org, is there just something ###### with how the Cubs teach catching defense?
Well, the offense sure looked good though. Lots of quality ABs, good situational hitting. So there's a positive I guess.
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Almora
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
Contreras
Bote
Heyward
Hendricks
Zagunis
I don't really mind Bote over Zo at 2b vs LHP, but this Heyward over Schwarber nonsense needs to stop.
EDIT: Oh, this makes it even worse
I interpret this as nothing is close on any of the other extension guys. If I had to guess, I'd say right now Javy and the Cubs are furthest apart based on percentage of the deal, Bryant and the Cubs are furthest amount on total dollars but probably close enough that if KB really wanted to sign he would have by now; I bet we see a Rizzo one before either of those guys. I think Schwarber would be smart to sign something, and he's probably the most likely the best next. Contreras's agent probably shouldn't let him sign anything this season. Almora probably could sign for something similar to maybe a little higher than Bote right now if he wanted, but he shouldn't. Any chance of something with Happ is on the backburner for quite some time. Maybe there's another one for Strop that gets him for 2 more years at a small raise, but he'll be the next pitcher to sign.
So final tally for add'l* extensions this year o/u set at 1.5, and I'll take the over (deadline of AS break).
The Bote extension is one of the more inexplicable contracts I can remember. Unless the Cubs know (or think) something we don't, I don't see how Bote could possibly have enough playing time this year or next to really demand any more than he got here, so the timing is just odd. I guess I'll take Moses' thought one step further and speculate that from the Cubs brass' perspective this is more sending a message to Bryant and Baez than it has anything to do with David Bote.
I don't get the Bote extension at all. $15 M total to buy out his arb years. Unless he becomes a starter, I don't see how he was possibly gonna earn $15 M in arbitration. (And if he becomes a starter, the Cubs are probably in serious trouble.) I don't think he was even going to be super-2 eligible. For comparison, with 3.086 in service time, Schwarber got just $3.4 M and he's a 500-PA a year guy with some success under his belt. Jordy Mercer was the Pirates starting SS for 3 years and a top bench guy for three more and he only got to $12 M in arb. He'll have to reach at least average full-time 2B/3B to make the deal any sort of bargain (comp Moustakas at $17 M for 3 arb year; LeMahieu just over $16). And it would take a sea change in either the market for meh bench players or Bote's performance levels to make those options attractive, even after inflation.
....for all the shitty baseball playing.
FTFY.
Bryant's [presumed] grievance is still unresolved. He and his representation are going to force the Cubs to buy him out of that claim so I suspect there is a low chance he extends with Chicago (unless the service time issue is addressed in a CBA or something).
He is their Addison Russell insurance. The chances he becomes an everyday player are not insignificant.
I felt the same way last night. The final month of last season left a sour taste in my mouth, so I didn't have much enthusiasm going into 2019. But what enthusiasm I had has been zapped by the Braves series. As it is, I've got too many things going on that actually affect me directly more than Cubs baseball, so I'm cool pulling back a bit for now.
We say it a lot, but thank god for 2016. Without it, some of us may have dropped dead from the stress caused by the last two seasons and 1 week.
Well, they're already 4.5 games out of first place, which is really hard to do in the first week of the season. Brewers are probably going to lose again and I suspect the Cubs will win again at some point, but the pitching has been putrid enough that I could easily see them being 10 games out by May. So that's my prediction. Maddon gets bounced once they're out by double-digit games.
MLB Network carried the game last night, so I couldn't help but watch a little. Right now, Darvish is looking like the pitching equivalent of Jason Heyward. Not sure there's light at the end of that tunnel.
Carl Edwards is looking like he's officially in Carlos Marmol territory and I'm afraid you cannot really count on him much going forward.
Again, the offense has been pretty good, but the pitching is just offensively bad right now and I don't know how much you can expect it to improve.
Yeah, they're getting pretty close to firing Maddon to send a message stage.
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Even if the Cubs splurged this offseason on say Harper and Kimbrel, they might still be exactly where they are now. Now of these leads were blown in the 9th (they lost on the walk-off Strop WP), and they wouldn't be scoring 10+ a game with Bryce. The fact that every single pitcher - oddly enough, except for Lester - has gone worst case scenario is extremely troubling.
The bullpen is a legit problem though, no sugarcoating that. Kintzler hasn't had a bad outing, so I guess it's not literally every guy that's been terrible.
Man - thank God for 2016.
Of course, maybe I just knew what was coming for quintana tonight. Edit: and kintzler
But yeah, I suppose one effect of 2016 is my no longer caring that much. Perhaps I'm not the fan I thought I was.
I got her the framed Cub birth certificate and Marquis photo.
Worst case
Zobrist RF
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
Schwarber
Conteras
Descalso
Heyward CF
Lester
Curious why Joe already switched back from pitcher hitting 8th, though this appears to be a relatively standard vs RHP lineup (Almora/Bote getting the nods against LHP, but Heyward and Schwarber switching). I keep forgetting they had the DH last week.
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Something I saw on twitter that I didn't think about with Bote's contract is what, if anything, does this mean about Russell? I guess I just assumed Zagunis would go down for Happ soonish, and Bote is the odd man out when Russell comes back. If Russell just replaces Zagunis, they're really an OF down (though that would make Zobrist pretty much FT out there, but it also means someone else would start getting more OF ABs - could just be Bryant, I guess).
OTOH, the offense has been pulling its weight.
Cubs have scored at least 10 in half of their 10 games so far.
11 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 14 K
So that's nice, I guess.
I feel like this tracks. They've blown out their opponents a few times, gotten blown out a few in turn, and then lost literally every game that could have gone either way. So any kind of metric that shows them as basically a .500-caliber team thus far seems about right to me.
I remain curious as to which of the a) terrific offense, or b) terrible pitching holds out to be more reflective of their true talent level. Maybe both? Maybe neither? For what it's worth - probably very little, I'm sure - every time I looked at the scores in spring training it seemed like they were scoring a ton then, too.
Very curious start to the season, at any rate. I know everyone's frustrated with them but I gotta say I'm into it. Curious to see how this plays out.
I believe this will necessitate another 40 man move; Tseng was taken off for Webster. I'm kinda surprised it's Collins and not someone else already on the 40 (not counting CJ).
I have tickets Sunday, so it's a good thing Lester isn't starting because of the curse of him shitting the bed when I'm there. It's a bad thing for me and everyone else when it turns out Chatwood makes the start.
It's cold, and will be really cold for this one.
Speaking of, anyone been yet and experienced the new section numbering?
Boy, the Cubs are really reaching for a 2019 ad campaign.
1) The Catalina Club, which is completely restricted to ticketholders for said club, has completely replaced the old concession area and rooftop deck that were underneath the press box before. The walkway just ends behind home plate, and the Club is closed in. It's a big change and I don't love it.
2) You can still get from one side to the other (we were speculating about this over the winter at one point), BUT the only way to do so is to go down a half-flight or so of stairs, to a narrow catwalk that connects the two sides behind where the rooftop deck is. In other words, right above the Clark and Addison intersection. It's so narrow - maybe 4-5 feet wide - that I can't imagine the bottleneck on a busy day (which tonight was certainly not). It's a cool view though.
3) An equivalent to that old rooftop deck has now been constructed along the full length of the upper deck, with all-new restrooms, concession areas, and a place to just hang out. It's actually very nice and open and spacious, aside from that narrow catwalk bottleneck behind home plate.
4) Elsewhere, you are now allowed underneath the bleachers without a bleacher ticket, so you can see the bullpen areas (not that there's anything to see, as both teams had the window shades down tonight) and the memorabilia that's back there, etc. You still can't walk all the way around - you need a bleacher ticket to get to the area by the center field gate - but it's a nice change.
5) The walkway area between the 100 and 200 sections has been extended in right and left field, and there's new stairs at each end to get up to the bleachers. Seems like it's opened things up over there, and I believe some seats have been added as well. This seems well thought-out to me.
6) The lower concourse seems to have been redone again, and the concession areas seem much larger and you can actually see people cooking food in there now. Food options seemed more or less the same to me, though I don't really pay a ton of attention to Wrigley food so I can't say anything too definitive about it.
I think that's pretty much it. Once again, the changes seem basically positive to me overall, despite my reservations about the whole Catalina Club thing. The park now really looks quite lovely on the outside now that the exterior renovations have been completed all the way around.
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My current level of worry rankings:
1. Bryant. .231/.333/.365. Specifically that slugging. Is his shoulder just ######? Considering he was supposed to be healthy after an offseason of rest, that fact that he's not hitting the ball hard or driving it at all is extremely troubling.
Ok, I'm actually surprised by that, yet also surprised to see he really doesn't hit the ball that hard overall.
2. Darvish. What the ####, man? Seriously, what the #### is this ####? And why are we talking about him like the pitching version of Heyward - great, he didn't walk everyone, just gave up a bunch of homers. That's not progress.
3. Rizzo. .192/.344/.385. Last year's slow start was supposed to be because of his back; I haven't seen anything about his back bothering him this year.
4. Almora. Is he just a bench player?
5. Schwarber. He just finished a horribly ugly stretch. He'll never be what he was built up to be, but there's still lingering disappointment because of that.
6. Hendricks. Razor's edge.
7. Javy. Streaky.
8. Contreras. Mostly just because of Caratini's injury and how much he's about to be overplayed when he's on this awesome tear.
9. Me. Because Heyward's great start will once again mask his decline back to suckitude when it inevitably happens.
I think Darvish is not healthy. He's trying to cover up a lack of command by overthrowing everything. Last year his velocity bumped up to a career high even as his overall performance imploded.
Almora's career .726 OPS is right in line with his minor league numbers. I feel like he is better on defense than BBREF is giving him credit for but I don't think he's a great fielder, exactly. He's plenty valuable as the 4th outfielder/short side of a platoon but it is best to not lean on him for 130 starts.
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If the Cubs are getting enough offense from every other spot in the order, I'm ok punting offense in CF for Almora's defense - I definitely agree with you on the rating for him there. Once Heyward crashes back down to earth, it's really hard to carry at least 2 offensive zeroes in the order every day (and that's with assuming every other player is carrying their weight); IOW, a Heyward/Almora CF is fine with me in theory. Heyward seems to be planting himself 5th in the order, so once again, I know it's going to take a long time for Joe to adjust to him back at his normal self when it happens (and it absolutely, 100% is happening).
It's kind of amazing how this team seems to do everything in bunches, both good and bad (hitting and giving up HRs, same with BBs, errors); last night was be stupid on the bases night. Maybe that's overselling what happened, but Descalso got throw out at 3rd trying to tag on a fly to RF (it was that guy's first game, and that throw was ridiculous), Javy was out trying to Javy his way into a double, and Bote got picked off 1st. Thankfully, it didn't matter yesterday, as Quintana was absolutely dominant again.
Schwarber back in the lineup tonight at hitting 8th. Still haven't really seen anyone mention anything about it.
I really want this turnaround to be real.
Also feeling OK at present about that option they picked up on Hamels.
It's really amazing how this team seems to rise and fall over the past couple years with how well Baez is playing.
Huh. Cubs have the best run differential in the division - 2nd best in the NL.
The Reds are 5-12 despite a run differential of -1.
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I don't think it's a coincidence things look better playing the Troutless Angels and Marlins. But that first week+ does look to be a bit of an outlier.
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Hmmm.
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Fool me once, well, I've yet to be fooled by him being good on the Cubs. I also am surprised how far he stands from the plate almost every time I see him at the plate.
And I love those launch-angle graphics.
Quality stat-padding against some dreadful offenses.
I mean, technically, if the hitters swing at balls, they are magically turned into strikes.
But yeah, it is very nice to see the rotation be other than terrible; even against bad teams you can't expect three consecutive starts of 7 IP, no runs unless the pitchers do their jobs well.
Jose Quintana: 0.2 bWAR
Eloy Jimenez: -0.3 bWAR
Yes. Longest such streak for the Cubs since 1976, Len said.
I will go to my grave wondering why the DBacks didn't walk Bote in the 10th to face Zobrist. It's one of those things that's so negligent it's practically losing on purpose. Zobrist is more selective for sure, and that's something to consider since the bases would have been loaded if they'd walked Bote, but Bote hits the ball hard on a consistent basis. He's the last guy you want to face with a drawn-in infield, and sure enough, he scorched a 110mph grounder that Marte simply had no shot at playing in.
Honestly, there's no one on the Cubs' roster I'd have rather had at the plate than Bote in that situation. He's a decent contact guy, he hits the ball hard, and he's already shown that he can keep his head on straight in pressure situations. But the DBacks just didn't seem to care. Zobrist is a double-play waiting to happen these days, he was just as likely to hit the ball on the ground but would have allowed the DBacks to play back a little further and have a chance at the force at home. And then probably they'd have had to dealt with a struggling and very high-strikeout hitter in Schwarber if it came to that, which is also way preferable to facing Bote.
Don't get me wrong, this was all fine by me. I just couldn't believe what I was seeing. It was like playing chess against someone who just forgets to protect their king.
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Morrow had some sort of setback or pain, or something. So his return has not been moved back even further indefinitely. In the grand scheme of things, Strop's HR allowed yesterday isn't a big deal, but I wonder if between that and Morrow the Cubs eventually try to figure out a way to sign Kimbrel.
They are going to trade Russell for a middle reliever.
Leaving the city, the BNSF leaves Union Station every hour at 40 minutes past (so 10:40, 11:40, 12:40).
I question just about every part of this; Montgomery sucked early on, but perhaps that was just the injury. I fail to see how one shockingly good start (and it was shocking because no one expected it and no one in their right mind expects it again any time soon), and 4 relief appearances (he only gave up runs in half of those) - none in almost 2 weeks - would have moved Chatwood ahead of Montgomery in either role. Now, it's really worrying if Jesse has someone on the Cubs telling him that.
Sure, in the abstract, if the Cubs actually think some of the depth at AAA + Chatwood can handle spot starts/cover for another injury (and those both definitely will happen), I'm not opposed to trading Montgomery for a late inning reliever type.
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Nico Hoerner hit an inside the park HR to LF last night:
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I'm still holding out hope for him figuring something out and becoming a weapon for the Cubs.
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That feels like a ton of attempts against.
I guess, but Monty has been awfully mediocre with the Cubs, too. I don't feel like either one is a good option, honestly.
Interestingly, the Cubs are 12-9 now in Chatwood starts since signing him. They're 19-19 in Montgomery starts since he came to the Cubs, on teams that've obviously been way better than .500 overall. Not saying that Chatwood has winning magic or anything like that, just that Monty doesn't actually give them a lot of value in a starting role other than "someone has to do it." A pre-2018 Chatwood, if he can perform at that level, probably gives them roughly the same thing Monty does.
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