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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Wednesday, March 27, 20192019 Season PredictionsI suck at these, but they’re always fun to revisit after the season to get an idea of my state of mind from Spring Training. 1. Bryant will finish top 3 in the MVP voting. I’ve been saying for years he was going to put together a truly monster season, and he looked on his way last year before his shoulder injury. I’m talking something .300+/.420/.600. Let’s say 94 wins. Add your win total predictions, plus any other bold ones to this thread. Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: March 27, 2019 at 04:56 PM | 164 comment(s)
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I'm not going to argue the point that much, because I totally agree with this:
I don't feel like either one is a good option, honestly.
And if someone values Monty enough as a starter, have at it. I think the Cubs can be fine with the other LOOGY-type RP, also, so he wouldn't be a huge loss if the Cubs are comfortable with the spot starter options (I'm not).
But...
While Monty wasn't great as a SP last year, he was still clearly significantly better than Chatwood (5-5, 3.69ERA, 2.5 K/BB vs 4-6, 5.16ERA, 0.93 K/BB) - and in his defense, last year was the first time he was a SP for an extended period and not going back and forth from the pen to the rotation. For me, last year's performance for both carries a helluva lot more weight than what either guy did pre-2018, especially Chatwood. I also completely dismiss the 12-9 argument - Cubs went 10-9 in Monty starts last year; most were in the 2nd half with the MIA offense that scored 1.9 runs/game in those 9 losses. The Cubs averaged 7 runs a game in the 12 games the Cubs won in Chatwood's starts.
Well, sure. The 12-9 thing isn't even an "argument", really, it's just a curiosity. Obviously the Cubs can win with either guy if they're scoring a bunch of runs and will struggle to win with either if they're not.
I'm still not sure how much stock I put in Chatwood's 2018. Pitchers bounce back from bad years all the time, although of course he doesn't have all that great of a level to bounce back to. Obviously I wouldn't suggest that he's some kind of hidden ace, just needing the right circumstances to unleash his secret powers, like pre-Cubs Arrieta or something. But I don't think a low-end-of-cromulence season would be all that surprising either. I guess all I mean is that if they trade one and give the other 15 starts this season, I'd expect the Cubs' overall record to be pretty much the same regardless of which one was dealt and which was kept.
Also, full disclosure - I'm still mad at Montgomery for pitching like ass and breaking my in-person 11-game winning streak last year. Chatwood, on the other hand, was excellent when I went on Sunday. And I ask you, what more do I need to make up my mind?
That's how I feel about Lester, no need to say anything else.
When I lived in Schaumburg is was a piece of cake. I lived within walking distance of a Metra station, then a short walk from Union Station to a red line stop.
I'm 3-0 in Lester starts. Surprisingly to me, I haven't seen anyone else on the current staff more than once. They won the starts I've seen by Hendricks, Quintana, and Chatwood, and lost the starts by Montgomery and Darvish.
I might need to double-check my log. I can't believe I've only seen Hendricks once, although in the last few years I've racked up quite the murderers row of randos - Rodrigo Lopez, Chris Rusin, Justin Germano, Carlos Villanueva, Scott Feldman, Tom Gorzelanny, Clayton Richard, Brett Anderson....
That bolded phrase really bugs me; I am on the outside here and don't see the day to day, but I still am not seeing a lot of remorse or even understanding of what happened here. It's like he's saying it's a challenge for him, something that happened to him.
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From the story again:
My cynical side is nodding, knowing this was all inevitable as long as he checked off every thing on his to do list.
Kinda feels like Heyward is starting pretty regularly in CF these days, so Almora isn't really losing any more PT with this. He'll get starts against LHP and be a defensive replacement. I think I'd be shocked if he were demoted.
Schwarber continues to struggle, I wonder if him getting sent down again is a possibility. I'd guess no, but he'll probably continue to be a straight platoon guy in LF, with Bryant starting there against LHP.
I bet it spells the end of Zobrist in the IF, except for late game switches, etc. He'll start mostly in RF, with Bryant over there on the regular days off he gets (in some cases, it'll be Heyward vs a LHP; Zo won't start 3 days in a row and probably not day game after night game).
I don't think Russell will be handed the starting SS job right off the bat. But he probably does start the majority of time there. Javy plays more 3b again on days Descalso plays.
I think the only guys who will remain regulars are Rizzo, Bryant and Javy (well, and Contreras until he breaks down again and/or Caratini comes back), with the latter 2 moving regularly between 3 spots. Heyward gets the next most starts, then the Zobrist/Descalso/Bote/Russell group all probably get about the same number of starts, with Almora and the backup C the least. I think I'd agree with that approach. I assume there'll be more advanced scouting/platoon type info used to make the specific day to day decisions. Splitting up the PT is something Joe is pretty good at, even if it isn't always obvious at the time.
Even trying to set aside the whole "I'd rather not root for a domestic abuser on my favorite team", I'm not entirely sure that Russell deserves to make the Cubs' 25-man roster on merit. I guess over Zagunis as Moses suggests in #116, but the Cubs seem pretty well covered in the middle infield already with Baez, Bote, Descalso, and Zobrist. If Baez were to get hurt, I don't know that I'd want any of those other guys starting at shortstop regularly, but I don't think it's a big deal to have your injury-replacement everyday SS playing at AAA. But admittedly, that's probably clouded somewhat by the opening clause of this paragraph.
It's early, but Zo's lack of power (he doesn't have an XBH yet - neither does Almora) is concerning to me. If both of those guys are on the team, they're better off with Russell being the regular and Zo the backup. I don't really know what I think about Descalso's defense yet, but right now I'd say him and Bote should remain ahead of Russell. It's harder to carry multiple offensive zeroes (or near-zeroes) in the lineup regularly, but Russell's defense puts him on the short list of guys who could/potentially should play every day regardless of what he's hitting.
I guess this is a long way of saying I could see them keeping Russell in AAA until his bat shows it should be up, but I remain highly skeptical that he won't be on the 25 man the second he's eligible.
Well ... look, I like Bote as much as the next guy, and Zobrist has earned the benefit of the doubt despite struggling in ways that are extremely concerning for a player his age. But there's no argument for Descalso over Russell. Even last year, when Russell was sort of terrible, he still posted 2.0 bWAR. Descalso for his entire career has 1.9 bWAR, and most of that was last year (1.1).
Russell is an extremely gifted defensive shortstop who is occasionally useful with the bat. Descalso is a throwback to the Jim Hendry era.
I'm just really not looking forward to seeing him get a big standing ovation when he first comes to bat at Wrigley.
Same. I probably will just skip that game to be safe.
Adam Warren had a rotten half-season with the Cubs, but aside from that he's been a good pitcher for essentially his entire MLB career. He's a lot more than a bag of beans.
Schwarber 5th again today. I'm not exactly sure why, especially after a week when he appeared to be benched (though no one said anything), and he hasn't hit #### since he's been playing again.
Once Russell returns I hope the Cubs find a way to keep Bote in the lineup over Kyle (if it comes down to that choice).
Once Russell returns I hope the Cubs find a way to keep Bote in the lineup over Kyle (if it comes down to that choice).
Yeah, a platoon makes sense, but Bote offers the positive defense.
Speaking of, at some point, if Schwarber isn't hitting, you just have to ride with Almora instead (also not hitting, but gives you the plus defense). I'm very disappointed in myself on completely buying into the Schwarber hype, but also more disappointed this is how his career has turned out. I never know how much to put into the whole "fresh start" narrative, but maybe he is someone who would benefit from playing somewhere with less attention/baggage/hype/etc. Too bad he's not worth very much in a trade.
There you go
EDIT:
Joe sure seems to be talking about Russell as if he'll be back as soon as he'll eligible. But Joe's not the one that has to worry about perception.
He's started every game since Caratini has been hurt, and has caught every inning but 1 (he was pulled before the 9th of the 6-0 loss to the DBacks this weekend). He's appeared in 21 of the Cubs' 22 games, starting 19 of them (the 2 he didn't start, he still caught after PH or double switching in). He's only 6th in innings caught, but everyone ahead of him has had more team games (Yadi, Realmuto, Grandal, Navarez, Maldonado). I think it was a failure of the FO that they couldn't get a veteran catcher on minor league deal, even if it was a show of faith in Caratini.
Chris Gimenez
Rene Rivera
Alex Avila
Dioner Navarro
Steve Clevenger
David Ross
Koyie Hill
Steve Federowicz
Henry Blanco
Paul Bako
Steve Lake
Steve Christmas (!!)
Damon Berryhill
Hector Villanueva
Erik Pappas
Tyler Houston
Robert Machado
That's all I got.
And his brother, Tim.
Didn't comment on it last night, but Hamels 6 BBs last night actually didn't bother me that much. He was close, and the Dodgers don't chase. It wasn't ideal, and Joe did leave him in a batter or two too long.
...
I mean this whole series lineup thing never made sense.
Only 0.5 WAR so far despite the hot start with the bat (he's got more homers than Trout!), with -0.3 dWAR. As we all knew, he's not much in the field.
The offense had been doing a good job of capitalizing on those chances, but yesterday's performance was maddening. Q was really good, and his mistakes cost him. The pen was also pretty good, for the most part.
...
SSS alert
...
This feels a little mixed messagey from Theo. By letting him go to AAA for "rehab" or whatever they're calling it as soon as he was eligible, was kind of a sign that the org is saying he's done everything they've asked of him. I get the point Theo's try to make that it's not like he's cured or fixed or anything, but at the same time he can't really say it's purely a baseball decision and there are other considerations. I do wonder if Theo's having second thoughts on keeping him around.
Blech
I'm not sure these would be second thoughts. If the Cubs are going to trade him it's in their interest to stand behind him and improve his image to the extent possible.
Although if that's the case I am surprised that Bote hasn't gotten more time at second base.
Javy is on pace for a 10 bWAR season. I wonder if he needs a day off, or if he'll even get one before Russell comes back. He had 5 non-IBB BBs in March/April (2 IBB), which very well might be a career high month for him, but I'm not checking (he had 21 all last season, so he's slowly upping that rate).
Cubs are first in the NL in R/G (3rd overall) and 2nd overall in OBP. Even after that horrific opening road trip, the Cubs are up to 13th in fewest RA/G (FIP is also 13th); overall they're still walking too many guys (3rd highest BB9).
Lester was amazing yesterday, and was really good in his first start off the IL. It's early, but his FIP is over a full run lower than last year, plus his K% is up, BB% and H% both way down - he's basically 2016 Lester so far. IOW, this looks like less of a mirage than last year. Quintana also has appeared to turn back into what he was when the Cubs traded for him, and Hamels has not turned back into a pumpkin. It's probably too much to ask for both Hendricks and Darvish to go back to themselves; it does look like Hendricks' underlying numbers are fine, but his BABIP is out of this world at .405 so I'm guessing he's been a little unlucky (though to my eye, he had been giving up more hard contact, similar to early last year) and he'll eventually be fine.
I wasn't hugely concerned by the poor opening road trip, but I'm still kinda surprised by how thorough the turnaround has been. Since their home opener, they've been straight-up dominant.
Gotta beat the Cards now, though. ####'s about to get real.
But I would be quite happy with only one starting pitcher foundering this year. The Cubs carry a lot of risk in that rotation.
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At some point, it might make more sense for him to be on the roster than Zagunis, but of course, you don't have to worry about getting Zagunis ABs. I think Descalso is also probably better off in more limited doses.
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Javy is awesome.
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We got the good Maples last night, the kind that really makes me dream on him as a dominating closer.
It is almost unbelievable that a guy so prone to mistakes has become maybe the headiest player in MLB.
I saw that tweet last night. My favorite is the third pitch, where not only the batter flinches but so does Contreras as he's catching the ball.
I just love the swing and reaction from EE on the last one that strikes him out. The first pitch of the AB totally ruined the rest of the AB, he had no chance.
The games in hand thing worries me a bit. This happened last year too and we ended up with that 1 day off in 1.5 months (or whatever it was) to end the season. Brewers and Dodgers both have 5 (!) games in hand on the Cubs, Cards 3. Have we had more rainouts than I realize?
On Schwarber ... while I was certainly hoping and really expecting something better than this, I hate to say I told you so ... OK "speculated a reasonably high probability of ..." Still, I think this is mostly just a bit of a slump and the power will bounce back. I have kinda suggested all along that he and the Cubs should embrace his TTO nature rather than continuing to think he's supposed to be some sort of LD machine. This year he's hitting way too many GB although this is partially balanced by a lower pop-up rate. His defense has also been fine this year (and Rfield and Statcast agree) although in limited opportunities. I certainly would not have guessed that Joey Gallo would be the more consistent player but here we are.
Still, if anybody is gonna be the next David Ortiz or at least Oscar Gamble, Schwarber seems a pretty good bet. (Jesus the game has changed -- Gamble BBd more than he Kd.)
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