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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Monday, October 24, 2016Bring on the outsourced 5 minute Indians previewI haven’t had time to write one of these up yet, but Walt posted this in a comment on the last thread. I’ll just post what he wrote, and give any of my thoughts in the comments. I’ve paid very little attention to this team all year but here goes: Offense is better than the overall numbers look—the overall numbers are dragged down by a mostly terrible bench but the starters are pretty good and they cleaned up one weakness getting Guyer to mash LHP. There’s no stud batter but everybody is a threat except for their horrible Cs (who will now hit 400 for the series). With 3 starting switch-hitters and Guyer (and others) available to PH for Chisenhall or Naquin, they aren’t particularly vulnerable to LHR but you’ll want two for Kipnis who they won’t PH for.** They led the AL in steals with 134 ... but use the slow-footed Carlos Santana in the leadoff spot which is kinda cool. They take a decent number of walks (4th in the AL), don’t strike out overly much (7th), don’t have a lot of power (10th in HR) ... but, again, those numbers are dragged down by the weak-hitting bench. 34 HRs for Santana and Napoli, 23 for Kipnis and 14 for Naquin in 365 PA are legit power threats. Defense is OK by Rfield. Mainly everybody is average except for Naquin who is apparently unbelievably awful in CF and Lindor who is apparently excellent at SS. The rotation of course is a bit of a mess due to injuries. Kluber is outstanding, Bauer is a moron and Timlin is oddly effective. The bullpen looks pretty scary for the Cubs. Apparently their ballpark is the new Wrigley with a PF around 110 so expect some high-scoring games there ... and maybe don’t freak out if we give up a couple of runs early in a game. Well, freak out less. Anyway, overall “strategy” looks about the same. Make sure we beat the non-Kluber starters. Working the counts though won’t necessarily be the way to do that, that just gets their killer pen into the game earlier. Ideally we score early off of Bauer et al, not just work them for counts and leave baserunners. If they get good Kluber starts, then the Indians really don’t need more than 2 turns through the lineup out of their other starters. On the pitching/defense side, the Cubs are pretty much the opposite and want their starters going deep. In that sense, Arrieta may be the key. I assume he’s scheduled for games 2 and 6 and it seems prudent to win at least one of those games. Another key for the Cubs is whether Chapman can be effective in the multi-inning way that Maddon clearly wants to use him. ** In Lester starts, if he needs relieving early, it would be good to bring in a RHP and maybe you get those platoon RHB out of the game. Then they should be quite vulnerable to Monty, Wood, Chapman later. Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: October 24, 2016 at 10:15 AM | 91 comment(s)
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1. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 24, 2016 at 10:35 AM (#5332779)I think that on paper, the Dodgers were a slightly better team than Cleveland (I'm not really making much of a league adjustment mentally here). We'll obviously hear a bunch about the bullpen, and in Miller and Allen's case, it's definitely warranted. They use Shaw a lot as well, and although he's had a good playoffs, he's a step down from those 2, but is someone Francona clearly trusts. So if there's a guy you'd hope to go Blanton all over, it's possibly him. The absolute best and scariest part of their pen is really the usage, which Walt touched on. Francona is extremely aggressive in his usage of those bullpen aces, and perhaps the wear the guy out strategy would have a bigger impact on them. If they can run up Miller and Allen's pitch counts, they may be less effective as the series goes on. Their pitching is more susceptible to the long ball than either the Giants or Dodgers were. It's actually a little weird Russell/Rizzo are the only guys with 2 HRs, but the Cubs do have HR from 10 different guys.
Offensively, their baserunning is the scariest part to me; they ranked 3rd in FG's BsR. Unlike the Dodgers, they won't just talk about running; they'll actually run. Davis will start against Lester, and he'll be aiming to steal 2nd and 3rd. They're going to run on Montero during warmups. Ross and Contreras will have to be on top of their games during their starts.
The biggest roster question is obviously Schwarber. I completely understand the desire to have him on as the DH. As a fan, I couldn't be more excited about the possibility. However, I really do wonder how good his timing would be. I completely and utterly trust the Cubs on making that decision; I don't think they'll put him on unless they really believe he's ready to hit. It's not like Soler or Coghlan are really demonstrating that they clearly should be playing.
I don't think the Cubs are likely to need the 12th pitcher, and they didn't even use Zazazazaaztryszay last round, so I think that would be an easy swap. I'd be hesitant to drop a bat for Kyle, just in case you need to PR for him late in a game. Others have pointed out that the roster is a bit unbalanced between IF and OF, but I'm willing to defer to Maddon on preferring Coghlan over LaStella (who really has shown nothing since his mid-season pity retreat).
Rotation hasn't been announced, but I'd assume it goes Lester/Arrieta/Hendricks/Lackey. It's kind of a shame that would deprive Arrieta the chance of hitting, but that's really just a minor style point complaint.
Cubs in 6.
1. Even beyond the base stealing this is a good base running team. Not only are they quick but they are smart. Napoli is an excellent base runner in particular.
2. I never felt out of a game against Allen. He is very good but beatable.
3. Tomlin gets no love for some reason. He's an exasperating pitcher because when he is on his game things are happening very quickly and very badly for the offense.
4. Perez is a terrific defensive catcher. He seems to get good ratings on his pitch framing and he keeps everything in front of him. He won't give up free bases.
As I said in the Schwarber thread, I think I'm hoping they add him... With the DH for at least two games and Miller as the only real lefty on the Cleveland staff, I think he fits better than anyone else. Granted, Allen and Shaw are decent against LHP -- and I think Otero actually has a reverse split, but I feel a lot more confidant that Schwarber - even a rusty Schwarber - would have a positive impact with the bat. Soler has to stay if only to be the designated PH against Miller, so whether it's back down to 11 pitchers or replacing Coghlan, I'd prefer to have him.
I would think/hope the Cubs/Maddon also consider that Arrieta and Wood are not terrible PH options. Usage and gameflow almost certainly means that Wood probably won't be used as such in all but the oddest of situations, but there's no reason Arrieta can't be looked as a realistic and non-awful bench is empty PHer on his off days.
If the Cubs do keep 12 pitchers, then I really do hope Joe pulls back on the mid-inning relieverorama a bit and consider that there may very well be situations where it would be preferable to use Wood as a PH when he's going to start the next inning anyway.
I think they steal at least one win in Cleveland and win it at home... Cubs in 5.
Kluber and Bumgarner had the exact same ERA+ according to BB-Ref (149, Cueto was at 147; Lester and Hendricks were both better). I feel the same as you. I know he's good, but don't necessarily think of him as elite. Partly, it's a lack of familiarity, being more of an NL fan; partly, the existence of the DH in the AL makes his raw stats a little worse. And, of course, Madison Bumgarner also has the (mostly earned) reputation as a postseason god, whereas Kluber was the starting pitcher in the Indians' only postseason loss so far this season.
But certainly, the easiest path to a Cubs victory is to win the non-Kluber starts.
Do we have any sense of what the Indians are planning to do beyond Game 3? I assume they're at least toying with the idea of pitching Kluber in Games 1, 4, and 7, but would they do the same w/ Bauer and Tomlin - throw them on short rest in Games 5 and 6?
Perez isn't a great hitter (or even a good hitter), but his true offensive talent level is probably closer to the .242/.338/.390 line he put up in '14-'15 than the steaming pile he served up this season. If he's healthy, he's perfectly cromulent.
Fair enough. This leads to the obvious follow-up: is he healthy now?
Is the World Series assignment merit based? If so, how bad must MLB umpiring be if Cowboy Joe is among the top 6 umpires? If not, why the heck not?
That would probably make Mike Napoli the first starting baseman to sit in the NL games in a World Series for two different teams. Make it happen, Tito.
Cowboy Joe is usually rated quite highly in terms of his balls/strikes, out/safe calls. He's also at the top of the most objectionable human being lists.
I guess they'd probably be more likely to bench Napoli than Santana, based solely on the fact that Carlos is the leadoff hitter. But I wouldn't be totally stunned if they split time.
Increasingly, I feel like the smart money is that he's on the roster.
I also hope my team wins. But as gutted as I'd be if the Indians lose, I'll at least be able to take solace in being happy for Catuli Nation.
I agree. I think the downside risk is fairly minimal. The team literally only used 24 players in the NLCS anyway - Zastryzny never pitched. And LaStella in the NLDS and Coghlan in the NLCS played so sparingly that if you blinked you missed them. So, he's not pushing a potentially valuable player off the roster.
And for as much depth as the team has, their DH options aren't necessarily great. Soler is probably their best bench bat, but he doesn't have the platoon advantage and hasn't looked great. Contreras would presumably be available to DH in Games 1, 2, and 6 if he continues to not catch Lester and Arrieta, but he's also a righty and if he's the DH, he's not necessarily available to catch later in the game (he is, but then you lose the DH). And, frankly, the bar for Kyle Schwarber to be a better hitting option than Chris Coghlan is fairly low. Worst case, if he strikes out four times in Game 1 and looks bad doing so, don't start him in Game 2 (and 6 and 7) and make him your last PH option off the bench.
Glad he'll be with the team either way.
Adding Schwarber mid-season the AFL roster seems rather pointless if he's not going to be added
Not exactly, I mean he was added to see if he was healthy. If he isn't ready, then they burned 8 or so PAs. Still better than what the Mets are doing with Tebow.
That's really the key to me -- Soler/Schwarber make the most sense as DHs... neither has any real use except hitting. Using anyone else at DH is somewhat of a wasted resource. For the weekend, they're both one and done PHers...
Schwarber's certainly going to be rusty -- but per both the FG report and another from Jim Callis at BA, he certainly seems close enough. One hanger he mashes into the stands would make it all worthwhile, I think.
True -
My understanding of the backstory is that Schwarber basically pleaded his case to the FO just to get the chance. I'm just guessing, but I have to think that once the FO agreed, the bar for Schwarbs get activated is probably pretty low. I'm guessing that just that supposedly well-struck gapper that he got robbed on cleared that bar (I imagine there's all manner of "how does the knee feel" follow-up, but the public statements seem to indicate no worries there).
I wish the Mesa game were available SOMEHOW in ANY form... at least it would give us a way to spend the afternoon.
Kluber is a better pitcher than Bumgarner.
In terms of overall base running, the Indians rank third in MLB with 17.1 Fangraphs BsR, but the Cubs are not far behind, ranking fifth at 15.9. The Indians have twice as many SB as the Cubs, but in general terms of turning base running into runs, it looks like the two teams are similar. The Indians have been better at preventing the SB than the Cubs, but not by a large margin, and I think the Cubs have been better with Montero getting less time behind the plate.
The difference is that stealing bases is clearly a part of the Indians offensive game plan, and it works for them. Broadcasters will prattle on about it, particularly when Lester is pitching, but clearly this is something the Cubs are prepared for. Against the top 10 teams in terms of total SB, the Cubs had a record of 56-23 this year (without playing the Indians, of course, and otherwise it is not exactly a list of the best teams in MLB).
Schwarber in place of Coghlan or Almora -- no way.
Schwarber in place of Heyward -- yes please.
I think I would prefer to see Almora starting every game. Honestly, I think the Cubs' Game 6 lineup against Kershaw was my favorite lineup of the postseason - Almora in RF, Contreras at C.
My concern w/ starting Heyward is that the time when you're most going to want to pinch hit for him - in a close game when Andrew Miller is on the mound - is the precise time when you're going to most want Heyward to stay in the game for his lockdown late-inning defense in a close game. Granted, you could bring Almora in for defense and you don't lose that much in RF, but you lose the opportunity to use Almora as a defensive replacement, then, in LF.
I'm going to try not to ##### about Heyward starting every game if he does. He has his obvious strengths and Maddon knows what he's doing. But I really liked what they did in Game 6 (lineup / late inning defense; obviously, I loved the 5 runs off of Kershaw, the 2-hit shutout, and the 3 DP's, too) and would love to see more of it.
Tomlin, of course, probably throws about as hard as Hendricks if that.
Coming out of the AL, the Indians staff is probably as good a Heyward matchup as he/we could hope for... but that's not saying a whole lot.
This doesn't make a lick of sense.
Anyway...there really isn't any reason to prefer Almora in RF to Heyward against a righty. I mean, Heyward's all sorts of messed up, but Almora's bat is far from a sure thing, and as good as he is defensively I don't think he's as good as Heyward today, mainly because he hasn't played enough in RF. To get Contreras's bat in the lineup, you could shift Zobrist to RF, but again, you're OF corner defense takes a pretty big hit; even bigger if you put Soler in either corner. Considering the strength of the Indians is their pitching, I think you have to plan for low-scoring, and go with the defense first option. In that case, you start Heyward, PH for him against Miller (in preferred order of Contreras on his 4 non-C days, Soler, Ross, then Almora), and have Almora play defense late. I keep talking about PR, but that hasn't mattered yet, but you think it will finally have to matter if Schwarber does play.
The website says the opportunity to register ends at noon today (though it's said it was closed all morning), but TBD on email for tickets. I'm guessing the email goes out later today or first thing tomorrow, and tickets are on sale Wednesday at noon. For the NLDS, they emailed the winners at 5:48pm 2 days before the sale; for NLCS it was at 3:26pm 1 day before the sale.
So, you probably have to wait a couple more hours.
On the whole, Kluber's fastball is probably better than Bauer's fastball because at least the Klubot knows where it's going. But it's not thrown as hard as Bauer's heater.
My understanding is that the tentative plan is Salazar out of the bullpen, but I guess I wouldn't rule anything out.
I don't know how deep the Indians' bench is (beyond not wanting to have their backup catcher pinch hit), but I think it makes more sense to do a bullpen game in Chicago than in Cleveland. You just pinch hit for the pitcher every time he comes up, and, in theory, you get a slight offensive advantage over the Cubs having their starting pitcher bat 2 or 3 times.
BUt if you want to get a look for yourself, MLB Pipeline will be streaming the Mesa game coming up in about an hour...
NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Now where did I put that link to sell a kidney on the black market...
They've got to feel a little more comfortable now to call on Merritt for one short start, I'd think.
Ditto.
My wife is of the very strong opinion that "this is history, we have to go". I asked her how much she'd be willing to spend per ticket (note: we also have two sons, so this is times 4), and her response was, "I don't know, it's history: $10,000, maybe $15,000". It's very weird for her to be willing to spend at least twice what I'd be willing to spend for a baseball game.
That said, I just bought 4 tickets in section 204, row 14 for Saturday night. For about one-fourth of what she was willing to pay.
---
Also kinda cool:
It was a really good price. And it's going to be awesome to be there. But, as I just told my wife, I kind of have to get over the, "I just spent HOW much money!?" for the excitement to really take center stage.
Carrie Muskat reports that the Schwarber decision won't be made until tomorrow morning (rosters due 9 AM, I think). Caught his first two PAs -- grounded out sharply on his first PA, lined out into the shift on the 2nd.
If Stub Hub is any indication, you'll be better off flying to Cleveland. For G2 you can get upper deck seats between $900-1000. For G3 in Chicago, you're looking at $2800 bucks for upper deck.
I think the most I ever paid for baseball tickets was $500 a piece. I think that's still my limit.
I wish I could just know what'll happen with games 1 & 2.
I allotted myself a grand - with the idea that if worst came to worse, I'd probably go up to 1500 but that doesn't appear to be in the cards.
I suppose some lottery tix will start entering the mix now, but anything that goes up under 2 grand seems to get snapped up pretty quickly.
Cleveland's probably a 6-hour drive. You may want to look at getting a hotel a couple of hours away - Toledo? I read somewhere that some Cleveland-area hotels have jacked up their prices for the relevant nights.
That's the home game I don't have tickets for, but I suspect I'll find a TV or two in Chicago where I might be able to take in game 4.
Sounds about right. Cleveland's 345 miles from Chicago; I'm 300 almost on the nose and it takes me 5.
Don't take the damn Bishop Ford....that asphalt work they're doing has slowed things to a crawl, as I discovered leaving town yesterday. Take the Skyway/IN toll road.
Road trips to Cleveland fall into my area of expertise.
1) 6 hours unless kids or traffic. Less if you stay on the West side, or live south suburbs.
2) Indiana rest stops are terrible. Hold it until Ohio.
3) Ohio City is a good neighborhood to stay in, fun part of the town. Lots of good bars/restaurants
4) The Great Lakes brewery has a cheap shuttle to/from the game. Very good beer, very decent food.
Yeah, meat -- been up to your neck of the woods a couple of times for family stuff over the summer/fall, and I gotta say -- for the first time in my life, I think that BOTH I-94 and I-90 are worse in NW Indiana than in Chicago/NE Illinois... It's just painful to get past Valporaiso -- and what's with I-94? Seems like it's been 'under construction' for 5 years now and I only rarely see anything actually being done. Grrrrr...
Anyway, game 3 SROs now down to 1925 (woo-hoo?!?!?) and the supply seems steady, if growing a bit. My brother wanted to meet in Cleveland and a buddy who IS making the drive with his son offered me an in-law's couch (unclear if that was an offer made with their blessing!). I think I'm going to hold my decision till after Wednesday. Hopefully, the Cubs can at least split the first two (I'll gladly take a nice, easy 4 game sweep even if it means the supply curve for tix stays flat). That might perhaps drop game 3 a bit further, which looks like the best target. If it goes 6 or 7 - I've already informed work that I will be traveling... hopefully, Prog field or whatever it's called now stays in the more reasonable triple digits in that case.
Hi, old-timers. I'm also contemplating flying to Chicago for the weekend. No tickets as of yet, and maybe in the end I won't splurge for them, but I'm definitely happy to contribute to any arrangement of the type Andere mentions, and will keep my eyes and ears open for the same.
At the very least it would be super cool to see some of you guys there, preferably in a drunken celebratory stupor.
Game three prices continues to slide in 25 dollar increments -- 1900 now.
Most encouraging, the total number of available tix continues to rise. Game 3 looks like it might be the best option... game 4 prices ain't budging much, if at all.
Over/under home runs for series? 1.5 and I take the over.
Yup. If Rob Z didn't get into a game against the lefty-heavy dodgers, I see no reason to have him against the Indians.
It was driving me crazy watching (and then re-watching... and re-watching again) MLBN's preview and the manner in which they talked about this... they kept saying Soler would be dropped, maybe Coghlan, and it was just criminally poor insight not to recognize there was an extra pitcher who didn't even get into the last series (in fact, I think he only even warmed up once).
That link needs a trigger warning. If I get any more pumped, I will explode.
trigger warning for the pregnant, elderly, or those with bad hearts
So, my cousin is coming in from LA and he is a well-connected guy, so if he can work some magic, I may get to go. But if not, I'm fine with it. Am I just rationalizing or does that make sense?
Consult your physician if your erection lasts longer than 4 hours.
Exactly where I'm at. Yeah, I'd love to go. But after experiencing Game 6, I'm ok with being overcome with joy elsewhere for this one.
Meh. These days, 4 hours only gets you to about the bottom of the 7th.
Good Guy Kyle Hendricks.
Though, hourly SH update -- now starting to see some game 3s fall into the 1700-1800 range and game 4s have finally started to move downward (still 2200+). We're still talking SROs, but it is what it is.
I'll reiterate - if I had my choice, even though a split in Cleveland likely bumps prices for 3 & 4 down a notch - if only by opening up game 5 as a possibility, I'm still very much preferring a nice easy sweep. I also got my fill of drama in the NLDS and NLCS. Sticking with Cubs in 5 - but 4 more wins in a row would be great.
I think the Cubs hit more than 1.5 home runs, yes.
I was obviously talking about Schwarber.
I think putting Schwarbs on in place of Zastryzny is a mistake. Sure, Rob Z didn't get into a game against LA, but only because they were fortunate enough to avoid any long-inning marathon affairs. The Cubs should have kept the extra pitcher and made the tough decision to drop one of their redundant utility IF/OFs. I would keep Coghlan due to his very productive last month and look at Heyward, Soler, or Lastella as being the odd man out.
Yeah, no. LaStella was already the out one out, and Zas barely pitched the last couple of weeks. An appearance by him wouldn't have necessarily been a good thing, and it's not just that he didn't appear, the bullpen as a whole is really, really rested.
I almost got a serious bargain... During my now-every 15 minute refresh on stubhub -- a pair of REALLY great seats (section 32 - Club Boxes!!!) popped up for game for just a $1000. This is cheaper by 1200 than even SROs! I immediately figured someone made a mistake listing them - forgetting a zero -- but tried to click through the purchase before it could get rectified.... and of course, it got rectified before I could check out.
I wonder what SH does in a situation like that, had I actually been able to complete the purchase before the poster recognized the error?
I can't imagine you would get the tickets for that price - there wouldn't be a valid purchase contract because the seller never actually intended to make that offer.
What if I'd already downloaded them (which I had intended to do the minute I got the opportunity, had it gone through)?
I could see the purchase going through, then SH giving me a call, canceling the transaction, etc if I hadn't yet DL'ed... but seems like they'd be kinda screwed if I already had.
The SH seller FAQ page seems to say that the seller would have been screwed:
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