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   1. Neil M Posted: September 11, 2006 at 09:34 PM (#2173719)
dJf -

No apologies needed. Most of us have probably been quietly trying to quantify these same stats to test the Pravda version of this year, though with lessening interest as the season has gone south.

It is so sad that a franchise which, albeit briefly, promised to turn over a century of history now seems to be locked into a delusory alibi which should carry its dismal record of failure well into another century.
   2. JPWF13 Posted: September 11, 2006 at 10:07 PM (#2173751)
More back of the envelope type calculations:

The average NL team has hit .265/.356/.418 with 471 RBIs in 1501 PAs with RISP (all PAs except errors)
The cubbies have driven in 425 runs in 1400 such PAs

The average NL team has driven in 31.4% or RISP
The cubs have driven in 30.4%
If they were "average" they'd have about 439 RBIS rather than 425 (ooh big gain)

The most efficient team at driving in RISP has been the Mets at 34.9% (hitting .276/.366/.471 with RISP can do that)- if the Cubs hit like that with RISP they'd have 488 RBIs rather than 425

a gain of 63 - which would mean that a .267/.319/.417 team would have to step up to a .471 slugging in RISP I don't think so.


They are 3rd in SH, they are 4th in most CS, they are dead last in walks, they are also 3rd in fewest Ks...) despite so few baserunners and so many sacrifices (+ they're 5th in steals)they have grounded into the 3rd most DPs
-
because they put the ball in play (few Ks- little power) on the ground (1.42 g/f ratio- highest G/f ratio)

They need offensively:
1: Base runners
2: power

Statistically they are a dead ringer for the small ball offense loved by the mediots and old time baseballers- aggressive- high average- put the ball in play- on the ground- so you can advance runners... steal and sacrifice a lot.

No wonder Dusty and the Cubs brain trust are baffled- every cliche they've spouted for so long that they actually believe says that this offense "should" work-

but of course it doesn't- the statheads can't be right (about anything) so what is it? RISP! That must be it (to be fair to Dusty he has pointed out the lack of power- which really is a big factor- not quite as big as the lack of baserunners- but more importatnt than hitting with RISP...)
   3. dcsmyth1 Posted: September 11, 2006 at 10:34 PM (#2173785)
Re: batting w/ bases empty vs runners on base. If you are worse at the latter (relative to the overall relative splits for those categories), it means you are better at the former. Since hitting w/ ROB is *dependent* on the performance w/ BE, there is a lot of "canceling out" in this calculation.

Because of that, I estimate, looking at the Cubs' performance w/ BE vs ROB, that they have only lost about 1 run due to this situational split.

So, Hendry/MacPhail are pretty much covering their own behinds, by implying that "we obtained good hitters, but they simply did not hit when it counted". That's not to say that their excuse won't work--most fans and sportswriters will buy it hook, line, and sinker.

But they can't fool someone who knows how to analyze the numbers. Unfortunately, we don't have much of a public voice.
   4. JPWF13 Posted: September 11, 2006 at 10:41 PM (#2173791)
So, Hendry/MacPhail are pretty much covering their own behinds, by implying that "we obtained good hitters, but they simply did not hit when it counted". That's not to say that their excuse won't work--most fans and sportswriters will buy it hook, line, and sinker.


Actually I've usually found that even the least sabr inclined fan understands the need for baserunners- oh they don't like OBP because they've been told it's crap or that slow guys clog up the bases-
but if someone says, "we need to hit with runners on"
and then you say, "what runners? we have less runners than everyone else- we've got to reach first"

the average fan will understand that

what I don't get is why so few in the general sports media will bring it up- or print letters from those who do
   5. Walt Davis Posted: September 11, 2006 at 10:53 PM (#2173805)
Maybe time to dust this one off again:

2006 Cubs: 267/319/417, 106/44 SB/CS, 78 SH, 4.26 r/g
1959 Sox: 250/324/364, 113/53 SB/CS, 84 SH, 4.29 r/g

In 2006, who in their right mind would model an offense after the 1959 White Sox?
   6. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 11, 2006 at 11:55 PM (#2173893)
Cubs Fans:

My grandson is going to be in Chicago this week for a conference. If he gets time he wants to catch a game. Where is the best place to scalp a ticket and what is the going rate for good seats these days? 20% off face value? 30??

Any input is appreciated.

Sincerely,

Harvey
   7. Andere Richtingen Posted: September 12, 2006 at 01:33 AM (#2174060)
My grandson is going to be in Chicago this week for a conference. If he gets time he wants to catch a game. Where is the best place to scalp a ticket and what is the going rate for good seats these days? 20% off face value? 30??

Email retro, and you might do even better than that if he has a ticket he wants to get rid of.
   8. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 12, 2006 at 01:40 AM (#2174070)
Andere:

Apparently he might have several compadres with him. So I'm guessing scalpling will be involved.

I appreciate the thought. Any insight on how to "negotiate" would be helpful.

Harvey
   9. Walt Davis Posted: September 12, 2006 at 02:50 AM (#2174170)
Any insight on how to "negotiate" would be helpful.

I've found a guy named Guido with a baseball bat is effective. But right now, if it's a weekday game, scoring a group of bleacher tix could be had with Gary Coleman as your "negotiator".

Y'know, in Harvey's honor, I tried to find some long-serving, crappy-hitting Brewer C or MI to use in Coleman's place, but there really aren't any. Charlie Moore is about the best you can do and an 89 OPS+ out of your C ain't bad at all. The OF years were kinda embarassing, yet Harvey seems to have pulled through those with his sanity intact.
   10. Passed Ball Posted: September 12, 2006 at 12:16 PM (#2174367)
buy the tickets on the east side of sheffield, between the sports corner and murphys.
do not buy the tickets on addison west of the convenient store.
   11. Andere Richtingen Posted: September 12, 2006 at 12:22 PM (#2174370)
I appreciate the thought. Any insight on how to "negotiate" would be helpful.

Well, prices are going to go down as the game approaches, assuming that ticket demand is poor -- a safe assumption if we are talking midweek. One thing to do is ask someone who just bought tickets from a scalper and find out what they paid. Another is to listen in on someone else's transaction and hear what bleachers are going for (for a midweek premium game, the face value is $30.

I'd suggest going early, finding out what they're going for, hanging out for a bit, then trying again. I don't think the scalpers are going to go below face value unless they're pretty sure they will have to eat the tickets otherwise.
   12. Jerry Mumphrey Posted: September 12, 2006 at 02:37 PM (#2174446)
Somebody needs to hammer on this topic at the Cubs convention. "We can see right through your excuse and we're not buying it. You need to come up with a better plan than waiting for clutch hits. The RISP numbers look bad simply because the Cubs had 150 fewer chances with RISP than their opponents." This utter BS of Hendry's needs to get shot down in some sort of public forum the next time he goes to it.
   13. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: September 12, 2006 at 03:08 PM (#2174475)
Y'know, in Harvey's honor, I tried to find some long-serving, crappy-hitting Brewer C or MI to use in Coleman's place, but there really aren't any.

Teeny Pat Listach should work just fine. He wasn't long-serving, but he was a name, at least.
   14. Chicago4 Posted: September 12, 2006 at 03:23 PM (#2174487)
My grandson is going to be in Chicago this week for a conference. If he gets time he wants to catch a game.

The Cubs also release tix day of game so if he's not necessarily looking for a deal -- he could try either hopping on-line or stopping by the box office a few hours before game time.
Labor Day weekend against the Giants we got 4 tix together - 5 rows up just past 3 base.
   15. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 12, 2006 at 03:28 PM (#2174490)
Teeny Pat Listach should work just fine. He wasn't long-serving, but he was a name, at least.


Pretty good manager, too. And he's in the Cubs' system (at West Tenn). Maybe he should be Dusty's replacement.

-- MWE
   16. CFiJ Posted: September 15, 2006 at 04:24 PM (#2177713)
We get more hits [than the opponent], but they aren’t the timely hits.

You know, the Japanese word for "RBI hit" is taimurii.

I was paging through a sports newspaper today and saw an article speculating about how much Daisuke Matsuzaka will draw for the highest bid when he's posted this off-season, and how much of a salary he'll be able to command. At the top of the article were the team logos of all the teams that have expressed interest: Mets, Yanks, M's, Pads, Rangers, O's, maybe one more. Conspicuously absent was the Cubs.

Not that expected the Cubs to make a play for Matsuzaka. With our payroll and staff troubles that would make just make too much sense. But it also bugs me because there was a time when the Cubs were one of the few teams setting up an Asian talent pipeline, and that seems to have been abandoned when Leon Lee was let go. Now they can't even be bothered to at least scout a guy they owe the fans to be interested in.

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