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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Thursday, December 08, 2016Cubs roster update - post Winter MeetingsNot surprisingly, the Cubs have been relatively quiet so far this offseason. After a couple moves, I thought it’d be worth putting the current projected 25 man roster on paper to see where things stand. C: Contreras, Montero SP: Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Lackey, Montgomery I see those 22 as locks. Maybe Duensing is a lock, but I don’t think $2mil is a guarantee. Maybe Zazstryzny earns a spot, too, but he’s pretty far from a guarantee. The Cubs are short an IF, and I’d think LaStella would have the inside track, but he also isn’t a lock. Szczur is out of options, but he might not have a spot unless Almora tanks ST. Other people on the current 40 man with shots and option include Leathersich, Pena, and Candelario. I think the Cubs are going to continue downplaying the chances of another big move, but I feel (hope?) there’s still another big splash to be made. As of now, the payroll is projected to be lower than last year, and I wouldn’t think it’d stay that way (though perhaps that means a bigger midseason trade). Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: December 08, 2016 at 05:09 PM | 80 comment(s)
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1. Andere RichtingenThe positions are strong, and the organization has familiar players to fill the 24th and 25th positions. And if not, they are replaceable.
Brad Lidge is also available.
I'm reluctant to trade Schwarber, but...
As typos go, this is A+ stuff.
I think Dexter's bat will age fairly well but I'm not so sure about his legs.
It was actually one of the Cubs beat writers (I want to say Miles) that had the typo earlier in the season. I even made it part of my handle for a while.
So yeah, I guess my 3/$45M offer wouldn't have gotten it done.
I was still kinda hoping the Cubs would jump in when the rumored offers were 4/$60mil.
The way things look today, I think I'd like to see something like Zobrist/Rizzo/Bryant/Schwarber/Russell/Contreras/Baez/Almora vs lefties and Zobrist/Rizzo/Bryant/Schwarber/Russell/Contreras/Heyward/Jay against righties. But even those aren't going to be consistent, because I don't think there's any straight-up platoons. I think they should seriously think about only playing Heyward against RHP until he's shown he's straightened everything out; Jay hits lefties just fine, and it's not enough PT to just play Almora vs LHP; Baez is probably going to get more ABs than any of the Cs/CFs, and probably Heyward.
Maybe Jay is a lead-off options on days he plays. I tried to get a R/L pattern going where possible, so that meant putting Bryant between Rizzo and Schwarber. Days Montero* starts, you probably don't put him/Heyward next to each other.
I guess what I'm realizing here is that the Cubs probably won't have a standard lineup, and guys are going to be all over the order just as much as they'll play around the field.
*I pray to every holy being that we don't see Montero become Lester's personal catcher. I'd rather not he be Arrieta's catcher either, but I'd rather he regularly catch Jake than Lester.
He put up 2.5 BsR in 2015 in 273 PAs. Last year Fowler put up 6.2 in 555 PAs. Zobrist hasn't put up 2.5 BsR since he was in his 20s. Sure, that's a small sample, but so far he has not been a bad baserunner at all. And I also realize that Schwarber's not a fast runner, and who knows how his injury might continue to affect him, but I think he's actually a good baserunner at this point if he's healthy. But how much does it matter? It's not something we've seen much of from the Cubs, but the Angels used the lumbering Brian Downing as a leadoff man for years, with quite a bit of success despite his station-to-station approach on the bases.
Also, in the past Maddon has batted pitchers eighth quite a bit -- I won't be surprised to see Almora/Jay hitting ninth next year.
I'm not arguing that this is a great idea or even a good one, I just don't think it's a bad idea. It's not like they were constantly asking Bryant to hit behind the runner or take pitches or bunt when they had Fowler leading off last year, or plan to in the future. On the other hand, I think Maddon really likes having a power hitter leading off, something he got used to with Desmond Jennings. And as you say, this is Maddon. We might see 150 different lineups next year. I expect to see Bryant and Rizzo as regulars in a couple of lineup spots, but otherwise it's going to be where the dice fall on any given day.
Montero is not good at controlling the running game. I can't imagine that he'd be a paired with Lester.
I'm happy to see I might be wrong. It's hard to really remember Schwarber on the bases, and the limited version in the WS is too fresh in my mind; then again, he did swipe 2nd once that series. Zobrist seems like a guy who does everything right though, so my thoughts are more in the take the extra base variety, as opposed to stealing or hit/run. Zobrist isn't young either, so he could very easily slow down. It just *seemed* like the Cubs got a number of runs out of Fowler/Bryant and their speed/baserunning than I've seen in quite a while.
I admittedly am overthinking this.
You're much more confident than I am with Lester not being adamant about this. I can't recall Contreras catching him at all, but vaguely remember him throwing to Montero once or twice (I could be wrong, or thinking about 2015). Arrieta threw to both, but at least Arrieta can field his position.
They did. Fowler's 6.2 BsR was 12th in baseball, and Bryant's 7.3 was 8th. Which means Schwarber's 2.5 in 2015 (in just 273 PAs) was actually pretty good. He only stole three bases that year so the BsR must have come mostly from taking extra bases and effectively advancing on batted balls. Again, small sample size, but it's contrary to any assertion that he is bad at base running.
Jed Hoyer was talking about this in an interview with Spiegel & Goff this morning on The Score. Hoyer was up for the idea. He said it gives more PA to the best hitters an a first inning lineup of Schwarb-Bryant-Rizzo would really hurt some opposing starting pitchers.
I seem to recall there being some "issue" late in the season when they were testing Arrieta and Contreras as battery-mates, as if they were having a tough time getting on the same page. Jake didn't seem thrilled with Willson's Yadi-like mound visit routine or something... Does this ring a bell to anyone?
Contreras feels like a natural behind the plate and I expect his game calling skills to advance pretty rapidly. Nevertheless, I have a hunch that Miggy will be Jake's personal catcher.
Yes. Montero caught the last 3 or so Arrieta starts in the regular season, then caught Jake in the NLDS and NLCS (one start each). We talked quite a bit about here, hoping Contreras would catch him in the WS, which is what ended up happening.
Nevertheless, I have a hunch that Miggy will be Jake's personal catcher.
I'm predicting Schwarber doesn't catch at all, but we'll see. I think Contreras is going to catch about 60% of the time, give or take, he'll always catch Hendricks. That's 40% or so for Montero (depending on DL time), and he'll probably get one pitcher that he always catches; I agree it'll probably be Arrieta. Maybe it's unfounded, but I fear that Lester will push to pitch to Montero as well, leaving Contreras Lackey/Montgomery (or TBD), but both guys can catch those few depending on the other team's SP handedness and hopefully both catchers catch all of the pitchers (unlike Lester throwing like 99% of his pitches to Ross the past few seasons). I hope Joe has already begun prepping Lester to throw to Contreras.
Nobody with something like that on their chin can be any good at baserunning.
I think I'll take the over on this, unless injuries make giving Contreras 25 or so starts in the OF a viable option. I also don't think Schwarber will catch at all.
I am shocked, shocked I tell you.
The Law of Conservation of Rosses. Think they'll make him shave his head and get behind the plate when Lester pitches?
Cayenne peppah, ohn-yohn....
A bullpen of Wade, Strop, Rondon, Uehara, Edwards Jr, Wilson, and one or two other guys would look pretty strong.
He's still a perfectly cromulent reliever, I guess -- call him the Travis Wood replacement without the desire to start... but he doesn't excite me like a real LOOGY would.
Well, true, but I also neglected to mention Uehara having an even more convincing reverse split, so it balances out. I believe the Cubs are signing him with that in mind. Anyway, right now it looks like the bullpen options against LHB consist of a RHP with a reverse split (Uehara, assuming that is happening), and then some fairly cannon-foddery types.
You need to get out more.
I have grown fat(ter) and complacent feasting on championship laurels, so I would argue that getting out more is the last thing I want to do.
Having tasted the sweet meats of a title, I now wish that the delicious morsels in ever more tantalizing and delicate flavors be delivered to me.
*Clap Clap* Thedly! Fetch me a LOOGY so that I might taste a Matt Carpenter Ohfer.
I think I love you.
*Only 108 total, so almost 25% of his Ks came against the Cubs.
That's a bit higher than what was reported from Japan last week.
These types of perks have always struck me as kind of bizarre. Both Uehara and the Cubs have more than enough money to pay for as much business-class travel between the U.S. and Japan as Uehara could reasonably do during the season (and in the offseason, for that matter). Either don't include it or include it and don't put an arbitrary limit on it (except for maybe limiting it to his immediate family or something, so he can't try to fly an entire village over to see a game or something. Although I bet that would be a fun game to be at.
That's why it's called a "perk" - it's not vital - or even really all that consequential - but still nice to have.
EDIT: Wow, when I'm writing quickly and off the cuff, I use "or something" way too much. Duly noted.
I mean, I can kind of see how the business-class tickets to Japan would be an expense even a rich organization like the Cubs might want to rein in just a tad.
Wait, business class, not first class. Those are $8700 each. Not so bad.
If he had a better agent, it would be first class tickets. But those business class seats were nice for that long of a flight.
I understand. HR is a difficult, thankless job.
I made an exception for Ron Swanson, but sorry Moses... I do not have room for two exceptions. This marks you as a terrible person.
It's an acquired taste. Even now, I only kind of like a few flavors of the stuff. I just prefer it to being 250 lbs.
My current client is...a very well-known fast food chain. They have fountain drink machines in all the break rooms, and we're welcome to drink as much as we want. I stop at a Speedway gas station right by my house on the way to their office and buy a 52-oz CFDC. I then use that cup during the day for refills at the fountain drink machine, and one last time just before I leave so I have it for the drive home.
Shut up. I know I have a problem.
I personally find the stuff disgusting.
.....he isn't wrong.....
Of course, I don't like soda water either.
I've been thinking about the roster issues which goes all the way back to the top, mainly on the position player side, mainly for the OF/IF and Zobrist/Baez playing time issues. Assuming no catching for Schwarber we're left with several issues/questions. There will of course be injuries along the way and things won't work out so smoothly but you never know who is going to be injured and you certainly don't want to be hoping somebody gets injured in order for some other player to get more playing time. In no particular order ... but kinda cascading from one to the next.
1. Playing time for Almora ... I assume Jay did not sign for the Cubs to get 40 starts ... and the Cubs didn't spend $8 M on him for 40 starts. Jay doesn't make sense as a regular sub for the LHBs Heyward and Schwarber. If Jay gets about 80 starts, almost all in CF, that leaves 80 for Almora. That might be enough playing time but ...
1a. That locks Heyward into RF for at least the 120 starts against RHP (and maybe another 20 vs LHP). Assuming Schwarber gets at least the 120 starts in LF vs RHP (and maybe 20 against LHP) ... Zobrist starts in one of the OF spots but only for the 40 against LHP.
1b. Therefore Zobrist gets at least 80 starts at 2B limiting Baez to 80 starts at 2B. Note Javy would get all 40 starts against LHP so there's no "sneak him into the lineup while shifting Bryant to the OF vs LHP". He'll pick up 10-20 SS starts and maybe 10 3B starts. I think Baez both deserves and needs more PT to have a chance to develop into a stud.
1c. So in this scenario, do we cut Zobrist's PT? Jay's PT? Almora's PT? Or limit Javy to 100-110 starts?
2. Part of 1 really ... even assuming Almora on the roster, the Cubs are stuck starting at least one of Schwarber/Heyward in each LHP start unless the 12th position player is a RHB. It's not necessarily a disaster, I think the Cubs want to give Schwarber a chance to prove himself against LHP.
2a. Szczur fits the bill but this would give the Cubs a roster with 7 players (incl Bryant and Zobrist) capable of playing 3 OF position but only 4 capable of playing 2B/SS/3B. That can work (it did whenever LaStella was hurt last year) but better balance would be nice.
2b. But LaStella isn't a RHB. I know it seems strange to suggest the Cubs get a RHB backup IF when BRB are all RHB but I'm thinking it allows moving Bryant to the OF against LHP. That suggests it should be a decent-hitting RHB (or switch of course) IF ... not a clue who fits that description other than Sean Rodriguez who's already signed and the Cubs would have been a bad fit for his playing time desires anyway.
3. Leading me to think that maybe Almora will/should start the year in AAA (barring an amazing spring or injuries) and we get that RHB IF (finding a good home for LaStella). That gives us something like:
CF: Jay 80 vs RHP, Heyward 40 vs RHP, Szczur 40 vs LHP
LF: Schwarber 120 vs RHP, Zobrist 40 vs LHP
RF: Heyward 80 vs RHP, Zobrist 40 vs RHP (when JH in CF), Bryant 40 vs LHP
2B: Baez 60 vs RHP, 40 vs LHP, Zobrist 60 vs RHP
3B: Bryant 120 vs RHP, mystery IF 40 vs LHP (or IF at 2B and Baez at 3B)
SS: Russell 140-150, Baez 10-20
That gives Bryant everyday, Zobrist/Russell 140, Baez/Heyward/Schwarber 120, Jay 80, Szczur/IF 40. That doesn't give time to Schwarber against LHP but that's easily enough done by taking starts away from the RH IF (and maybe a few from Baez/Zobrist/Russell to keep the IF fresh). It does fully limit Heyward to a strict platoon which I don't think he or the Cubs want (but will eventually happen anyway if the bat doesn't rebound fully). Personally I bring Zobrist down to 120 and Baez up to 140 (or 130 each). There are also of course a handful of DH starts to help Schwarber's PT.
The "problem" is Zobrist (OK, it's Heyward but whatcha gonna do). It's easy to pencil him in for 40 starts in the OF vs LHP (or he goes to 2B, Baez to 3B and Bryant to OF). After that, every start against RHP comes at the expense of one of Jay, Heyward, Schwarber, Baez or Bryant. I've listed those in the rough order of who I think ideally should lose that playing time although I waver on the ordering of Schwarber and Baez. Jay's obviously not somebody the Cubs are worried about long-term but I do assume he's expecting about 80 starts and the Cubs are expecting him for about 80 starts. Besides, if Zobrist takes starts from Jay, that involves Heyward to CF and do the Cubs want Heyward in CF for more than maybe 40 starts? 80 starts? If they did, why did they sign Jay?
If it is Almora over Szczur then I want to see Almora get more than just 40 starts vs LHP. That brings up back to Jay. If CF is 80/80 AA/JJ then there's no PT for Heyward in CF which means no OF time for Zobrist against RHP which means Zobrist gets at least 80 starts at 2B which means Javy's limited to 100-110.
Jay and Szczur are the guys whose PT we're least concerned with. If Heyward still can't hit, then he should be next on the list. Would the Cubs be willing to do their best to cut bait after only 1.5 seasons? If his bat rebounds to at least 100 OPS+ territory, then Zobrist needs to follow Jay/Szczur on the PT limitation list.
Too many good players is always a nice problem to have.
If Schwarber can catch 20 games -- a big if, I know -- that would help solve the "problem" a bit.
Jay actually doesn't have much of a platoon split; for his career the only difference is no power against LHP (.352OBP against both RHP and LHP). So while he's not obviously a regular sub for Heyward and Schwarber, he's certainly capable of being one.
Leading me to think that maybe Almora will/should start the year in AAA (barring an amazing spring or injuries) and we get that RHB IF
Yeah, I've recently started thinking Almora in AAA is a real possibility. He really only was an injury replacement last year, and didn't come up to stay until after the rosters expanded. He made the postseason roster as more of a specialist (defense, baserunning), since he's better at that than Szczur. Obviously he can earn his spot, and Maddon does seem high on him; at the same time, Maddon was pretty high on Baez, too, and that didn't keep Javy from starting the year in AAA.
I see your point on the RHB IF, and there isn't an obvious answer. TLS and Szczur have to go somewhere though; I believe both are out of options (even if TLS isn't, well, I wouldn't expect him to accept it).
It's a fair point that if the Cubs have no choice but to start a LHB OF against LHP then Jay might get some of those starts due to a mild platoon split. Also agreed that if Schwarber catches 20-30 games, the PT issue is pretty trivial -- pretty much just an Almora, Jay, Szczur thing.
Anyway, I'm pretty confident that the Cubs are as high on Baez as I am and will find some way to get him a good dose of PT. And they're obviously high on Schwarber so he'll get PT. My main concern is that Almora gets enough PT but I'm OK if that PT comes in AAA at least for the first half. He may never be anything but a 4th/5th OF but I'd like to see him get the chance to develop into more.
I'm not a Cubs fan, but this caught my eye because he's on my list of 2017 breakout candidates. Here's hoping he gets a shot!
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