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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Friday, August 05, 2016Dog Days of SummerI haven’t had a lot of specific things to write, and we’ve gotten our fair share of threads lately, but I still thought I’d put up a new open post and people can take it whatever direction they’d like. Some random assorted thoughts… - How about Javy Baez? His defense has been even better than I could have imagined. He’ll make the occasional error, either on a play he tries to force or where someone isn’t expecting him to make the throw, but I could only imagine what his defensive numbers would look like over a full season at any of SS, 2B, or 3B. He’s easily the Cubs best defender at 2B and 3B (not that Bryant isn’t pretty good, or Zobrist is below average), and I’m sure he’d give Russell a run for his money at SS (IMO, Russell is more solid, and less prone to mistakes, but Baez’s better arm might allow him to make a play or two Russell wouldn’t). I’ve mentioned before he’s really clubbing lefties, but the most optimistic thing is the K rate has dropped to a level where he should be able to stick in the bigs. - Here’s the last thing I’ve seen on Soler:
When Hammel comes back from bereavement leave, either Grimm or Patton go back down. The other could go for Soler, but since Cahill has been starting in AAA I’m assuming he’ll make a spot start or two soon, so that would mean someone else has to go for Soler. I already think the Cubs made a mistake by keeping Coghlan over LaStella (who was rightfully upset about his demotion*), so I’m not sure they’d DFA Coghlan for Soler. One of the catchers could go on the DL (or Contreras could be demoted), or Soler could just be assigned to AAA until his bat rebounds (I think this is the option I’d pick for now).
- The pitching has rebounded nicely:
Good to see the rest doing them some good. - At some point in the near future (or maybe even in this thread), I’ll write up my ideal 25 man roster for the playoffs. Might as well start thinking about those last few spots, as I’m sure Joe is already. - Lastly, it’s nice to hear that Almora is doing well since his demotion. It’s not likely, but there’s a slim chance he could be on the playoff roster at some point (it would likely take an injury), so it’s good he got some experience). Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: August 05, 2016 at 10:54 AM | 104 comment(s)
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LOCKS - 16:
SP (4): Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks, Lackey
RP (4): Chapman, Rondon, Strop, Wood
Lineup (6): Rizzo, Bryant, Zobrist, Russell, Fowler, Heyward
Bench (2): Ross, Baez
MORE THAN LIKELY (aka, I'd be surprised if they didn't make it):
Contreras - hopefully as starting C, but also could be starting LF.
Szczur - 4th OF and first righty PH
Edwards - he looks like the next guy in the pen, and I'd be disappointed if he missed out. Of course, if he struggles between now and then, it'd be less shocking
Hammel - I could see the argument for leaving him off, but at this point, he's clearly ahead of Cahill as the long man out of the pen. His 2nd half has been better, but could easily bomb his way off the team still.
LaStella - even with him being demoted, his versatility is better than Coghlan, and quite frankly, so is his bat. He'll be the first LH PH.
That leaves 4 spots that can go a number of ways. There'll be at least one more reliever, and as many as 3 (though 2 is the ideal number, IMO). Montgomery and Smith might appear to have the upper hand, but there's a way to go for them to prove it. Grimm is the next most likely, and then Cahill. I'll say we'll see 2 of those 4 for sure, just not sure which yet. Today, I think I'd pick Montgomery and Grimm, but that will change.
Joe probably will have Montero on the roster too, and he very well may be the starting C (and I will complain about that). I think Ross is a lock, since he'll catch Lester, and his bat deserves to go over Montero. That leaves one more spot, and the bench is pretty lefty leaning, so the door is wide open for Soler. I'm not taking Coghlan, but as of today, I think Joe would pick him. If Contreras is catching fulltime by then, I'd take Coghlan over Montero.
The "sixth starter" thing is a great example of Maddon's thinking outside the box. Cub starters still haven't missed a start this season, and Maddon is obviously very focused on keeping them healthy and fresh.
Once the Cubs had the makeup game scheduled to make them play 24 games in 24 days, perhaps they should have done the 6th starter thing even earlier.
I totally forgot about Nathan in my post. And well, sounds like I wasn't wrong to.
Starting lineup
C - Willson Contreras
1B - Anthony Rizzo
2B - Javier Baez
SS - Addison Russell
3B - Kris Bryant
LF - Ben Zobrist
CF - Dexter Fowler
RF - Jason Heyward
Reserves
C - Miguel Montero, David Ross
IF - Tommy LaStella
OF - Jorge Soler, Albert Almora, Matt Szczur
Pitchers
Starters - Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks, Lackey
Swingman - Hammel
Relievers - Chapman, Rondon, Strop, Wood, Edwards, Montgomery, Smith
So close: that's 26. I would probably drop one of Montgomery or Smith based entirely on how they do over the last two months of the season. I guess I'd give the tie to Montgomery because he's a lefty. I could also see reasonable arguments for dropping any of Montero, Hammel (or Lackey - Hammel has actually had a better season than Lackey so far), Almora, or Szczur (I would prefer Almora over Szczur if I had to choose for his defense; but I'd rather not choose and just take them both). And, of course, injuries could solve this too.
I kind of get the idea that LaStella still has options and Coghlan doesn't, but come playoff time, I don't see how you can fit Coghlan onto a 25-man roster if everybody's healthy, and I don't see how you could make a plausible argument that Coghlan is a better fit there than LaStella.
So apparently La Stella still has not reported to Iowa, has given no indication if or when he will, and apparently the Cubs are okay with this, though everyone is being pretty tight lipped about it, with Maddon noting that he "isn't ready to play yet" but indicating that he is taking batting practice and "staying active."
Weird situation. I'm not sure I can recall a time when a optioned player refused to report and the club didn't seem to mind (at least publicly). EDIT: I suppose its happening again as we speak, with the Dodgers/Puig.
It's easy to say that the Cubs' roster crunch situation is a a "good problem to have" but at the same time having 27 or 28 demonstrably capable major leaguers and only 25 roster slots for them could be an issue that causes rifts and chemistry concerns in the clubhouse...
And it only gets trickier with Hammel due back from the bereavement list any day now and Cahill ready to return next week (likely to take a start in the Cubs' doubleheader vs. Milwaukee on August 16).
The good news is that Almora has taken his demotion in stride, and is smacking the ball around hard in AAA since being sent down.
Not if his other grandmother just happens to have some well-timed misfortune...
I think teams get a 26th man for doubleheaders, which would solve the Cahill issue for that game. Although I assume Cahill is out of options, so that probably just delays the roster crunch by a day if they can't just immediately send Cahill back to Iowa after his start.
---
Predictions: Grimm goes when Cahill comes back; Cahill starts at least one other time besides the DH. We don't see TLS until 9/1, unless there's a random DL stint for Montero or Heyward (this wouldn't be a crazy idea; give him time off the rest and clear his head).
Interesting/odd/unavoidable things: Montgomery hasn't pitched since July 31. Coghlan has 1 PA since Aug 2.
25-man playoff roster (at least for NL series): Assuming only 4 SP (even if the 5th takes a bullpen spot) allows a 12-man playoff staff, I assume they'll carry all 3 Cs. But it's otherwise hard to make a case for Montero. But mostly an embarrassment of riches and I'm not sure which SP to boot. (I'll boot Hammel since I have the least faith in him but that's not a strong case.)
Cs: Contreras, Ross, Montero
IF: Rizzo, Baez, Zobrist, Russell, Bryant
OF: Fowler, Heyward
bench: LaStella, Soler, Szczur
I know LaStella's up in the air in which case it will be Coghlan. I can also see a case for Almora over Szczur as I think he's the better defender. At this point I'm hoping we don't see any Montero starts. If Joe wants 13 pitchers, I'd probably drop Montero but will guess that he would drop LaStella/Coghlan. At this point, I don't think there's any clear choice for who that 13th pitcher would be.
SP: Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks, Lackey
RP: Chapman, Rondon, Strop, Wood, Edwards**, Hammel, Montgomery, Smith
Top "fear" -- probably that Joe will push the SPs too deep into the playoff games when, with that pen, I don't think we need them to go more than 6 and I'd be pretty comfy with some combo of Edwards, Wood, Smith getting us through the 6th. #2 fear is that the offense will struggle against post-season pitching. We know they K a lot, they haven't done a great job of stringing together hits lately, Heyward and Russell are highly susceptible to LHP, etc. Obviously I'm not looking forward to Montero starts.
I don't mean to pick on Montero. I don't have a problem with him taking starts down the stretch. But come playoff time I think he'll be too much of a liability to give playing time.
Just noticed this -- offenses from likely playoff teams, K%:
Mets 22.5% (not so likely at the moment)
Cubs 21.8
Pitt 21.6 (not too likely)
LAD 20.9
StL 20.2
Mia 19.7
WSN 19.7
SFG 17.7
Other than the Giants, those gaps aren't massive (1-2 Ks every 2.5 games) but it's interesting that the most likely opponents at the bottom are 5 of the best 6 in the NL (Atlanta the other). LAD, WSN, Cubs, Mets, Mia are also the top 5 among pitching teams (Giants 7, Cards 10, Pitt 12) and those gaps are bigger.
** I have the benefit of writing after the 2nd Angels game when he shut them down with 2nd and 3rd nobody out and Joe is singing his praises. Barring a meltdown between now and then, I think he cinched it today.
I'm afraid you might have to take Strop off that list. They're doing an MRI today, but from the stands that looked an awful lot like a torn ACL. He felt pain, started to walk a little and realized he couldn't use his leg. We've all seen enough ACL injuries to know that's how it usually looks. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong and he just twisted something or has a less serious tear, but I'm not not feeling good right now. It's now very important that Rondon's triceps soreness is nothing more than that.
These threads are timeless, no such things as too late.
Top "fear" -- probably that Joe will push the SPs too deep into the playoff games when, with that pen, I don't think we need them to go more than 6
I think* Joe pulled the starters pretty quick last year in the playoffs - he had a really quick hook with Hammel and Hendricks. Arrieta went all 9 in the WC game, and he might have left him in too long in the other starts (hard not to, considering the run Jake had been on).
*I'm not looking, but I could be proven wrong.
I have the benefit of writing after the 2nd Angels game when he shut them down with 2nd and 3rd nobody out and Joe is singing his praises. Barring a meltdown between now and then, I think he cinched it today.
I agree; since I wrote this, Edwards has been great and I really do think he's a lock now.
I know LaStella's up in the air in which case it will be Coghlan. I can also see a case for Almora over Szczur as I think he's the better defender. At this point I'm hoping we don't see any Montero starts. If Joe wants 13 pitchers, I'd probably drop Montero but will guess that he would drop LaStella/Coghlan. At this point, I don't think there's any clear choice for who that 13th pitcher would be.
You really can't take Montero over Coghlan or TLS (pending) and Almora over Szczur; you need PHers.
Something's gotta change in the next 6 weeks, I'm sure -- but at this point, I really struggle to figure out how you end up with a four man rotation... I figured Hendricks had nudged himself in ahead of Hammel, but Hammel has been dynamite in his last 5 - matching him almost start for start.
Sucks on Strop - and yeah, I fear we might well be missing him from here on out... I guess it makes the Chapman trade go down all that much easier.
Edwards, though, is the real deal. I feel plenty of confidence when he comes in and have no problem tossing him into any situation.
I feel pretty confidant Joe is gonna take three catchers, unfortunately... Though, I suppose there might be hope - Monterrible has played just one game in the last week.
I'll say again, though -- if you're gonna bump Hammel, he probably needs to stop matching Hendricks start for start. Of course, I'm not suggesting Hendricks be bumped either - he's been better for longer. Fair bit of baseball left to go - but yeesh... if they're ALL gonna get back to their April/May ways - how do you tell ANY of them they're getting bumped?
Who knows... maybe you say you're just gonna go with your regular 5 until/unless a situation warrants the most rested starter being called upon to relieve.
I think there's a greater body of evidence that shows Joe likes Cahill.
It wouldn't hurt. But we alredy start with at least one of Baez, Soler, Heyward on the bench each game (barring injury) ... but, sure, he probably wouldn't do all three of keeping Montero, dumping LaStella/Coghlan and keeping Almore over Szczur.
That said, while Szczur's been a godsend this year, he's still just a 92 OPS+ career hitter (all of 277 PA) with career AA/AAA lines of (roughly) 270/335/365 in about 1500 PA and that nobody ever expected to hit in the majors. He has done his duty of hitting LHP though (823 OPS in 123 PA). Anyway, I'm not all that confident that Szczur is really a better hitter than Almora so it might make sense to take the defensive upgrade.
I guess it depends on how he pitches when he comes back.
That said, while Szczur's been a godsend this year, he's still just a 92 OPS+ career hitter (all of 277 PA) with career AA/AAA lines of (roughly) 270/335/365 in about 1500 PA and that nobody ever expected to hit in the majors. He has done his duty of hitting LHP though (823 OPS in 123 PA). Anyway, I'm not all that confident that Szczur is really a better hitter than Almora so it might make sense to take the defensive upgrade.
All fair points, even though I'll add it's not exactly a given that Almora will hit even that well at this level.
What it really comes down to for me is I think Montero might just be done (or hurt); his bat has been so bad and his defense really has gone to ####. Maybe he's still great at calling a game, etc.
I agree (at least for this season) and so I hope he either doesn't make the playoff roster or we almost never see him. I'm just far from certain that Joe feels the same way and he does like 3 Cs on the roster.
---
As of today, Montero and Heyward have the exact same OPS/OPS+: .622/69. Montero's line of .185/.313/.309 is worse than Heyward's .227/.307/.314 mostly because of how slow Montero is, IMO. Both lines are worse than any other batter who's played with the Cubs this year, except for Federowicz (and limited ABs from Schwarber and Candelario). Heyward and Montero are the 2nd and 4th highest paid players on the team this year and are 4th and 8th in PAs. What a world.
Damn, that's almost as frustrating as Joe's bullpen management these last few days.
Between that and the three-catcher fetish, Maddon's reputation as an "evolved thinker" is coming into question.
Just like the pen though, the post sucked and it has no bearing on any posting I'll be doing in October.
Between that and the three-catcher fetish, Maddon's reputation as an "evolved thinker" is coming into question.
And this is going a step or ten too far. Now, if
FederowiczMontero is on the October roster, you might be closer to a point.Maybe my biggest pet peeve with how people can use sabermetrics is that idea of a binary "right" or "wrong" when it comes to in game managing. Some things are more or less wrong, and regardless of the result. I'd bet the list of managers that do things "right" more often than Maddon is pretty damn small, and definitely doesn't include other guys who win a lot of games like Matheny and Baker. I'm also personally willing to cut a lot more slack for in season decisions - where there's a lot more noise and stuff we really don't know about - than the playoffs. I don't think you or anyone can make a convincing case that Maddon's decision making over the last year and a half in season, especially the more questionable stuff, has cost the Cubs anything of significance (or could close close to outweighing the good decisions). I mean, what do people want out of the manager?
This is probably the most frustrating thing in my mind right now.
Obviously, we're into mid-August -- so it's pretty clear that we can stop waiting for Heyward to turn things around offensively... It's a lost season, at least at the plate. He's obviously talented enough that even finishing with such an awful stat line -- there's always hope and possibility that he suddenly finds it in September and/or October... and obviously, if he suddenly posts a monster couple playoff series, no one will care if he hit like Neifi Perez in the regular season.
I think it's remarkable that even WITH his struggles - the Cubs are still 2nd in R/PG, 1st in OBP, 1st in OPS+, etc, etc... Could you imagine this team's production if he had managed even a middling season rather than a gawd awful one?
I'm not sure what the issue is with him... but I certainly hope Mallee/Hinske can get him straightened out.
Yeah, you're probably right, but I was exaggerating out of legitimate frustration.
In this case, to not make the decisions that are more, and more obviously, wrong. I don't think that's too much.
He showed a glimmer of hope in June that maybe he'd be snapping out of it, but nope, didn't take. OPS by month: Mar/Apr: .604, May: .602, June: .722, July: .617, August: .445. I'm at the point where I'm praying - for his sake - it comes out after the season he needs major wrist surgery but he tried to play through it all year and just never wanted to give up on this season. That's the only way I'll feel "good" about this contract.
Obviously I don't have to reiterate my stance that Contreras should be full-time catcher and Montero full-time cheerleader/clubhouse presence from outside the roster.
*I don't feel strongly enough about him hitting before or after Ross during Lester starts.
**He has a very pronounced split in his career vs LHP/RHP: .658OPS/.811OPS).
***Let's go with a lineup of something like Fowler/Bryant/Rizzo/Zobrist/Russell/Soler/Contreras/Baez w/o Heyward and Fowler/Bryant/Rizzo/Zobrist/Russell/Contreras/Baez/Heyward with.
FWIW, he is actually hitting .303/.365/.434 as a CF this year, not that I want Fowler out of the lineup.
Maddon doesn't think the Cubs are chasing Papelbon. And rumblings about Lackey's next start (maybe a DL trip to help stave off roster crunch, with Cahill getting another start or two).
That's probably not a bad idea. I was thinking, alternately, maybe use a 6-man rotation w/ Cahill for the rest of the season to keep everybody fresh.
Going back to my #9, Smith seems to have worked his way off the playoff roster. And I agree w/ the general consensus that Montero isn't much good there either. Which suddenly leaves my roster in #9 with an open slot for either Coghlan (who's done nothing to show me he deserves it) or Cahill (who probably isn't strictly needed if the Cubs put all 5 starters on the roster, but only actually start 4 of them).
I also like the idea of a Soler-Fowler-Zobrist starting OF in the playoffs w/ Baez at 2B and Contreras at C. That'd be pretty ballsy, but if any manager would/could do it, it'd be Maddon.
I like this idea too, but someone has to go from the next 15 days to keep the roster at 25. I'm fine with a Montero or Heyward DL stint, in addition to the Lackey DL option. Otherwise Grimm or Edwards head back to AAA for a few weeks, and I'd rather they both stick around to continue getting chances at tight situations.
They could DL or DFA Smith, I guess. Montgomery seems to be coming around some.
That's been the book on him. The Cubs "concerns" were about game management and pitch framing. Haven't really read much on that, beyond the standard comments from guys like Hendricks talking about how well Contreras is doing.
Amen to that, if Soler keeps hitting.
Jeez, if there really is causality there (color me skeptical), just switch Fowler to RF.
Can't we be concerned about both his buttholery and his lack of skill?
I hadn't realized it -- until JD/Len mentioned it on the broadcast -- but sure enough, after a truly awful stretch in late May/early June, Grimm was/is actually back to being quite good.
Limited time with all the Iowa yo-yoing, and I'm not as adept with PI to do the actual dates -- but just using his July/August splits: 11 IP, 4 hits, 2 BBs, 14 Ks (and no runs).
The spread JD/Len mentioned went back to late June... but whatever his problem was, he certainly seemed to have gotten it straightened out.
The roster crunch is solved, the logical way. The shittiest pitcher has come down with a case of diagnosed sucking.
Looks like it's not to be...
To a lesser extent, Edwards and Grimm fit that description, too. I agree, I understand the thought process. The problem is that Smith wasn't really that good with the Angels, so it's not exactly a surprise he hasn't been good here. If Cahill can keep it up, he had a little bit different of a repertoire.
I haven't seen them say, but I'd predict Cahill sticks in the rotation at least one more turn.
...Huh?
As far as the October pen goes the guy with the sinker-based repertoire that can serve as the nice change of pace is Trevor Cahill. He may not be sidewheeling like Smith, but that is counterbalanced pretty nicely by the fact unlike Smith, Cahill is not terrible.
Either someone needs to stop pitching like Walter Johnson or an injury like this may well be the only reasonable way to get the rotation down from 5.
I have no problem with going with the straight 5 -- the downside, though, is that it leaves you short somewhere compared to the standard playoff roster (i.e., either you have one less bullpen arm or one less bench guy). I suppose they COULD go with the straight 5 man and just make it clear to the SPs that if an extra top arm is needed, whoever is most rested might find themselves throwing in relief.
It doesn't necessarily leave you a literal player short, if you were going to take the 5th starter to use as your long man anyway. And that could still potentially work. With travel days, I think it would basically always work out if you're using a 5-man rotation that the scheduled starter for your next game is fully rested and could be used as a long man if needed and the rest of the rotation could just slide up a day. So, if your playoff rotation is Arrieta-Lester-Hendricks-Hammel-Lackey, if Arrieta gets knocked out in the 2nd inning, you bring in Lester and adjust your rotation for the remainder of the series to be Hendricks-Hammel-Lackey.
I don't know how much that kind of thing might screw up the routine for your starting pitchers. But given how well the Cubs' starting pitchers have performed all of the season (except for the 3 weeks before the All-Star break), I'm not sure how much the Cubs are likely to even need a long reliever (barring injury - in which case the 4-man/5-man rotation question answers itself, of course).
Sure - though, on the margins -- teams usually tend to lose the 5th starter in favor of another position player (not one for one -- but moving the SP into the pen and dropping the last reliever).
I suppose the Cubs have the luxury of the great versatility of Bryant, Zobrist, Contreras, and Baez to make the "last man" less meaningful...
I'm kinda changing my mind on Monterrible... not because he's stopped being terrible, but more because maybe it's slightly worthwhile to be able to PR in a tight, late situation and have him around to catch a few random late innings in a "break glass" case. That may be me just resigning myself to him being on the roster and trying to make the best of it, though.
The playoff roster margins are sure to be interesting, though... You could almost a flip a coin - next 6 weeks yet to occur, of course - on the last bat and the last reliever.
The logic of 3 catchers during the regular season makes more sense - or maybe I'm just brainwashed into it for the way this team is constructed (and only because one of those guys can play other positions). But if Contreras is the catcher in the playoffs - and if Soler is healthy and hitting, there isn't a need for Willson to play anywhere else - there is zero reason for Montero. Period.
Versatility is great, but doesn't make up for having to PH Montero or Ross in a crucial situation (or worse, Hammel) because you only took 2 real backup bats because you were afraid you'd need a 3rd catcher for an inning after PR for your backup C.
I assume it's the Montgomery part that gets the "huh"? I'm fine with that. While Cahill did a fine job starting the other day I'd like to see what some others might do, especially a lefty. It may well turn out to be a "bullpen day".
I'm not sure Coors Field is the place where you put a planned bullpen day in the middle of your series. Hendricks and Hammel have been great, but there's a non-zero chance that one of them gets BABIP-ed to death in the thin air and doesn't make it out of the third inning. And, in fact, as a sinkerball pitcher, I would think that Cahill would be as well-suited to pitch well at Coors Field as anybody can be.
*Well, Montgomery was a SP as recently as last year
He started twice for the Mariners this year and was in their rotation when the Cubs traded for him.
The Cubs had talked about wanting to acquire a cost-controlled starting pitcher and Chris Bosio has some success helping guys get over the hump and becoming successful pitchers (Exhibit A being Jake Arrieta, of course). It could be that the Cubs acquired Montgomery thinking he fills two roles: (a) he's a lefty reliever this season, who, (b) can transition into a good cost-controlled starting pitcher as early as next season if necessary (in effect, Montgomery replaces Warren in this role).
While I'm not sure I start the experiment in Coors Field, as zonk says, when you have a 12-game lead with a month to go, it's not the worst idea to see if Bosio has had any luck so far with "fixing" Montgomery and/or give everybody a better look at exactly what needs to be fixed over the offseason and in spring training next year.
That said, somebody pointed out that Montgomery has no history of success as a starting pitcher even in the minor leagues, really (you have to go back to 2010 to find an ERA below 4 at any level). But Bosio and Maddon know a hell of a lot more about major-league pitching than I do.
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PetCo Park: 20 (12 Padres, 8 Visitor)
Dodger Stadium: 19 (8 Dodgers, 11 Visitor)
Tigers and White Sox are the only two teams currently in the AL that haven't pulled a starter before 3 IP in Fenway in that time frame. Rick Porcello on Aug 11, 2009 is the last Tigers pitcher to do that and Jeremy Bonderman on July 21, 2003 is the only other Tigers pitcher to do that in the 2000s. Jose Contreras on Aug 24, 2009 is the last White Sox pitcher to do that and Dan Wright on Sept 12, 2003 is the only other White Sox pitcher to do that in the 2000s.
He doesn't throw a sinker but Montgomery's career GB/FB ratio (1.23) is almost the same as Cahill's (1.24). This is more about Cahill's tendency being exaggerated than Montgomery being a big time GB pitcher. This year, Montgomery's GB rate is higher. Montgomery's career HR rate is lower, certainly helped by playing most of in Seattle.
Anyway, I think it's a perfect time for the sixth starter/bullpen day; with Lackey out it's needed or you have someone pitching on three days rest between now and the 25th. The Cubs could definitely use the sixth guy that day (unless Lackey is ready), plus the Rockies are currently posting "TBA" as the pitcher that day, because it's Tyler Chatwood's turn and he is on the DL. Start Montgomery and bring Cahill in if Arenado's second PA is with men on.
Time to start thinking magic number -- it's 30 as of today.
Of course, the Cubs won 100 games 5 times before that, so it still wouldn't be a top 5 season in the franchise history.
You forgot last year's 97 wins.
You're right, I did. I need to wake up more before I post.
He was something of a sleeper 2nd rounder 3-4 years ago -- juco lefty that the Cubs thought might go somewhere. He hasn't lit the minors on fire by any stretch, but is sort of Eric Jokisch Part II (with a bit less command) -- but aside from maybe Ryan Williams, he's perhaps the only guy at Iowa (now that the Pierce Johnson dumpster fire has been banished to the pen) who might have a future at the backend of the rotation.
Felix Pena is another interesting guy -- been in the org forever -- but had a big year (K wise) at Tennessee when he was moved into the rotation. He's pitched out the pen at Iowa this year -- but kept the really nice K rate. I think he's a fireballer if my vague recollection of old Sickels reports is right.
Would be really nice to see the Cubs start pumping out bullpen arms like they were for a brief period in the early aughts/late 90s when it seemed like there was a steady stream of gas pumpers that would come up and show you a bit/put together a nice half season to season and half.
Unfortunately, it would appear that Zastryzny is only the 4th player in MLB history with 2 Zs in his name. Szczur was the 3rd.
The first one was pre-WWII Red Billy Zitzman and the 2nd was Lance Zawadzki, who had a brief cup of coffee with the Padres 6 years ago and is apparently still toiling away in the indie leagues
Ugh.
Clearly, my regex BB-REF searching skills truly suck.
Never mind!
Hopefully both of these are simply cases of being able to be super-cautious because of the lead. In the case of Lackey, though, I suppose even if it lingers, that just makes the playoff rotation easier to set. But without Rondon and/or Strop, (a) the Cubs bullpen looks like a real potential liability come playoff time, and (b) how good does that Aroldis Chapman deal look now?
I really hope that Rondon and Strop both are healthy enough to make a few appearances in the last two weeks of the regular season to work out the kinks. I'd hate to have to rely on a guy who hasn't pitched in a month to navigate a high-leverage situation in the 7th or 8th inning of a playoff game.
I'm actually a bit more concerned about Rondon... The Cubs are still describing it as a "precautionary" DL stint -- but I have not heard anything about an MRI (would that catch a "triceps" issue?) or anything more definitive. I hope it's just some soreness.
Ditto with Lackey - though, of course - it makes the postseason rotation easier. The Cubs seem to again not be interested in any precautionary MRIs, etc... so...
I cannot imagine this organization looking to save a couple grand at this point - and obviously, we're talking about a different regime than the one that was so laughably bad at diagnosing pitcher injuries a decade+ ago... but, old habits hard to shake.
This team has to be the Killer Zs, right?
there's also 2 other Rizzos
plus more than a few Gonzalez's
They have 42 more games to play.
On July 9, the Cubs dropped their 15th game out of 20. In that game Jason Heyward went three-for-five with a double, giving him seven hits over the last three games for a season-high batting average of .247 - and a likewise season-best OPS of 678.
Since then, the Cubs have gone 25-8, while Heyward’s gone .162/.205/.229 in the 30 games he’s played (27 started). That’s an OPS+ of about 21 or so.
Maybe they need Heyward to play badly for the team to succeed.
I'll have what you're having, but if the Cubs continue at their current .642 pace the rest of the season, it brings them to a 104 wins. Hard to expect them to maintain their current pace though, considering that they are finishing up a 25-8 stretch, and are headed out on a nine game western road trip. After the bad streak before the All Star Break, the Cubs worked themselves down to a .597 record -- that would be a reasonably optimistic forward projection. 102 wins. I'll take that. 110 wins means going 33-9. Not unprecedented, although after the western trip they are playing teams who have been pretty decent of late, including the Cincinnati Reds, who have gone 19-14 since beating the Cubs two out of three before the All Star Break.
All of this is to say, this team appears to be historically great, regardless of how many wins above 100 they end up achieving.
I've been keeping an eye to see when the run differential went over 200 ... then completely failed to notice that it had happened. They were +53 last year in their final 42 games which would put them at +265 over their last 162. Another way to look at this season is that we're outscoring the opposition by over 50%, still 5 games under our pythag.
It also makes those late innings more nail-biting. Edwards/Grimm/Patton across the 7th-8th is not quite as confidence-inspiring as Rondon/Strop. In a strict baseball sense, the Chapman trade is looking better.
in the regular season
Good.
104 including last year's playoffs (162 regular-season games takes them back to a stretch in late August of last year when they lost 4 straight and 6 of 8 - the 104 of last 162 including playoffs was true both before and after last night's loss in Colorado)
Up until Lackey's DL placement the Cubs had an outside shot of getting 5 starting pitchers with 15 wins or more. The somewhat rare 5 guys with 13 or 12 wins is probably out of the question as well.
Kind of odd that this year's team is going to have a such a great runs allowed number and yet their "stud" pitcher is going to be Kyle Hendricks.
Something you've brought up before. The Cubs went 4-5 in the postseason last year. Including the post-season won't have any substantial effect on the Cubs record in the last 162 games.
For example, in their last 162 regular season games, the Mets are a whopping 84-78; in their last 162 including the post-season they are 83-79. See how that works.
The Cubs in their last 162 regular season are 103-59. In their last 162 including the postseason, they are 104-58.
While an easy mistake to make because most of the students are probably Cardinals fans, I don't think our Mizzou friends would appreciate their alma mater being called a juco.
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