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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Thursday, September 29, 2016Fear, Worry, and OverthinkingSince the Cubs actually cliched, and even well before that when it was inevitable, I found it easy to push a bunch of minor concerns out of my mind. Usually a quick “Yeah, but that won’t matter until October” was enough to mentally move on. Now that the playoffs are just a (long, long) week away, the doubts have started creeping back in. So, in the remaining 8 days until the Cubs play their next meaningful game, here are the things that worry me. 1. This:
Everything has been so hunky-dory all season, it’s almost shocking to hear guys publicly question Maddon, especially in an instance where Joe seems to be solidly in the right. I understand players have their routines, are creatures of habit, etc, but don’t they realize these games really don’t matter? We’re already worrying about Arrieta enough as is, do we need to start working about his mental fortitude too? All we heard last season was how unflappable he was; he was clearly rattled with the terrible strike zone, and if changing catchers that easily knocked him completely off his game, WTF? I also have a problem with Montero also second guessing Maddon’s bullpen usage. 2. Health. Soler was back in Chicago getting an MRI this week. Coghlan hurt his ankle yesterday. Rondon doesn’t look right. Who knows who else is dealing with something, but there’s plenty of guys struggling offensively this month. Maybe this isn’t as much a concern as a worry about what happens if something goes wrong. The Cubs depth has been one of their biggest assets all season, and outside of Schwarber, the Cubs have had another season where they’ve been on the good side of the injury coin; they’re likely to be significant healthier than any of their possible NL playoff opponents (that Ramos injury for the Nats could be a real killer). 3. Edge. This is more of a me problem than a Cubs problem, but with so much having gone right, I’ve found myself becoming too confident in their chances. What I say or do doesn’t have any affect on the team - jinxes do not exist, or if they do, there’s too many cancelling each other out for me saying the Cardinals suck to have any bearing on them matching up in the NLDS - but I can’t help but project my feelings onto the players. Reading Montero’s quotes doesn’t help. 4. Lastly, the stupid virtual waiting room not letting me buy tickets. Life’s not fair. Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: September 29, 2016 at 10:41 AM | 17 comment(s)
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1. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: September 29, 2016 at 11:24 AM (#5309837)He should probably rest that through October, just to be safe.
2 MRIs? Well, that's not exactly encouraging.
I think I agree with Montero. I find "scripting" the week to be quite bizarre. Limiting SPs, making sure your bullpen's not tired, giving some rest to starting position players is of course all standard but (a) he seems to be overdoing it a bit and (b) you don't have to "script" things to do that. And while I understand there is potential value in PT for (example) Almora to help decide if he's on the postseason roster, you also don't want to interrupt the "flow" of your regular lineups playing together. And with 4 days off before the series even begins, you don't really need to be providing extra rest now, you just need to avoid fatiguing anybody.
And on those lines, players like to win. And they don't like monkeying around and they don't like not giving their all. Baseball is a bit more relaxed about those sorts of things than a lot of sports -- everybody needs rest, 40-man rosters, etc. -- but it still rankles when you're not putting out "full effort."
Plus it seems to go against some of what the Cubs have been preaching all year. "Respect 90" would also seem to suggest "respect 162." Whether it makes much difference or not, Cub leadership has been pushing the "hustle" and "all for one" attitudes all year but now that they're in with the best record, it's become "we now want to maximize the probability of ..." Of course you do want to maximize those probabilities and the Cubs nerds have been maximizing probabilities all year long but they've also been selling the "intangible" side ... now they're not.
So as for "jinxes" -- the baseball gods do not take kindly to "we don't care if we win this game or not" ... unless it's the day after you clinched and everybody is hungover like proper ballplayers should be. But if you don't care if you win game #158, the baseball gods will become curious if you care about winning games #163 and beyond.
The Cubs are 8-4 since they clinched their division. I agree with some of the nits folks are picking - changing catchers mid-game probably is unnecessarily disruptive, pitching Chapman in a 12-2 game but not in a 6-4 game is weird, and tonight's lineup definitely raises an eyebrow or two (see my first comment in the Omnichatter). But they mostly are nits. I also kind of expect the regulars to play this weekend and for the Cubs to end up winning 103+ games, which would be fairly hard to criticize too harshly.
Besides yesterday, what else would you classify as overdoing it? Pulling Montero mid-game is the only other thing I can think of.
I totally understand where Montero is coming from, so that's not my problem. My bigger problem is him (and Jake) feeling the need to complain publicly. This means either, they voiced their concern to Joe and he either didn't care or didn't address the concerns enough for them. I would think Montero's been around long enough to realize there isn't a whole lot of value to publicly second guessing your manager.
pitching Chapman in a 12-2 game but not in a 6-4 game is weird
No, it's not. The score is irrelevant. What matters is the relievers have days they know they're pitching and can prepare thusly, and other days when they know they're not so they can take at least a mental break.
I really don't want to second guess Joe Maddon here, but why not just give players the mental breaks? Every day, players prepare like they always prepare, but over the ten days or so since the Cubs clinched everything, on any given day you tell this guy and that guy they can go commando under your uniform tomorrow and have the day off. I think roles are over-rated, and Maddon has been very successful in ignoring an over-emphasis on highly specialized roles, but I am not comfortable with fostering a mentality that treats these games like exhibition games.
But they mostly are nits. I also kind of expect the regulars to play this weekend and for the Cubs to end up winning 103+ games, which would be fairly hard to criticize too harshly.
This. We have two starters trying to establish themselves in the Cy Young race going Saturday and Sunday. Whatever heebie-jeebies the team might have picked up in these weird games so far this week and into tonight, they should be shaken off this weekend. Even if the Cubs have a terrible weekend, the four days off should be a positive.
Perhaps that's the big challenge Joe needs to meet - managing the clubhouse during what it is essentially a ~3 week hurry up and wait period.
It's gotta be just hell... waiting... and waiting... As others have noted, the Cubs are playing quite well - so it's not like the problems are manifesting in results... but I doubt there's a single guy in the clubhouse who wouldn't vote yes if the Cubs were given the opportunity to start the NLDS tonight.
Pretty much my feeling as well. It's gotta be kind of a weird situation to be in, to both keep your competitive edge and to be sensible about the actual stakes of these games.
I'm confused...you seem to be agreeing with me? That's essentially what he did on the day Chapman didn't come in during a save situation (and he came in for a non-save one because it was a scheduled day for him to throw).
It's gotta be just hell... waiting... and waiting... As others have noted, the Cubs are playing quite well - so it's not like the problems are manifesting in results... but I doubt there's a single guy in the clubhouse who wouldn't vote yes if the Cubs were given the opportunity to start the NLDS tonight.
Right, it's been like a month since they've played a game with anything really on the line. Others definitely counted, but there was such a cushy lead....I'm sure the players don't think of it that way, but I sure do.
Well, even if Maddon did say, obviously Jake wasn't on the same page. Or he's just making excuses for being rocked.
Ok, fine, but obviously the team isn't on the same page here.
We'll see. This is most likely much ado about nothing, just bad timing, I hope.
Overall I think I agree with you more than I disagree, but my gut feeling is that it's better for Maddon not to script the relievers. Erring on the side of giving relievers (and other players) more true days off and letting them know ahead of time is one thing, but otherwise play the games as they develop and use players as they would normally be used.
Maybe. That quote by Russell doesn't mean much to me - it's essentially saying "I like playing but there's more going on, that's life".
My gut feeling is that, on the whole, players aren't 100% thrilled with the situation, naturally they want to play and aren't conditioned to just stop thinking conditionally. But also I'd guess that the media's making it out to be more than it is. Phrases like "players were griping" and "Maddon shot back" are editorial in nature - they imply conflict, whether or not any actually exists, and to me are giveaways that they're trying to build the drama. This is pretty much the Chicago media's standard M.O. anyway.
As to lineups ... over the last 2 weeks, 4 starts for Kawasaki who's never seeing a playoff roster (I hope), 4 for Almora, 3 for Szczur ... Bryant 2 days off in the last 3 (after none) ... yesterday's spring training lineup of Fedorowicz/Baez/Kawa/LaStella/Russell/Contreras/Almora/Szczur with Zas as the SP.
Looking at it, it's primarily just been these last few games. In the last homestand, he used standard lineups, maybe as a "reward" to fans and players.
1. Bottom of the lineup. I’ve heard a couple of analysts talk about this, and it can be overstated, but if the Cubs are running out Heyward/Coghlan Montero in the 6/7/8 spots, it may make things easier on the other team. By the times the Cubs are facing the LOOGY brigades, the Cubs should have the ability to PH to get matchups they like. But I do fear what happens if guys like Bryant or Rizzo struggle at all and where the offense comes from. This is not a problem that is unique to the Cubs, and outside of Boston, every team has a weaker part that can be exploitable.
2. Middle relief. Rondon isn’t right, so that just means there’s a little less certainty when Maddon goes to the pen. There’s a lot of options down there, but every individual person has their own questions and none have been consistent reliable all season. Again, middle relief is usually the weakest part of every team, and I like the Cubs’ pen more than any other NL playoff team. So here’s just hoping Joe pushing the right buttons, but that he can go to the pen when/if the starters should be pulled.
3. Randomness of the playoffs. This is not meant to imply the Cubs “should” win, or if they lose it’s simply because the playoffs are a crapshoot. The Cubs have the best odds, and I’d rather this roster than any other, but things happen in short series. Here’s hoping luck is on their side for once.
4. Jinxes/Weight of expectations.
I'm not that concerned about #1. Heyward's been a disaster and probably will continue to be ... and as stated elsewhere, I wish Joe would put him 8th or 9th. But whether it's Wrigley or the Cub coaches or just random luck, Coghlan has over 1000 PA of 118 OPS+ for us and a good performance for us this year, I'm not worried. Bat-wise, Baez is probably as or more likely to be a complete short-series bust -- he could easily go Soriano 2003 ALCS at any point. Montero's been drawing a good number of walks and hitting a good number of HRs lately. Anyway, a weak bottom of the lineup is one of the prices we pay for pushing Bryant up to #2.
I'm more concerned about #2. Strop/Rondon/Chapman looked like it was going to be pretty awesome. Rondon had not just been good but had been one of the 10-20 best relievers in the game so paired with Chapman, that was gonna be awesome. He now seems completely broken with a post-ASB line of 316/357/570, 7 runs in his last 2.2 IP, and a roughly league-average K-rate. I don't know if he should even be on the roster, I certainly don't want to see him late in a close game. Hopefully I'm just over-reacting to a bad stretch.
I know that essentially leaves us where we were before trading for Chapman -- Strop in the 8th and hoping some combo of Cahill, Wood, Grimm, Edwards, Montgomery can hold down the 6th and 7th. Not the end of the world ... just more walks and HRs than I like to see and those can kill you in the playoffs. That weakness in the middle might also push Joe to stay a bit too long with Arrieta, Lackey and Hendricks.
Partially related to #1, I notice that Russell's weird weakness against LHP seemed to disappear in the 2nd half. For the season he hit 223/333/468 with 9 HR in 162 PA. That's still not amazing but it's better than his RHP split and it's more than enough power to scare teams late in a game. Zobrist also hits LHP better than RHP so Rizzo will get the one-out LOOGY treatment. With the RHBs on the bench to hit for Montero/Coghlan/Heyward, I'm not overly worried about LOOGy issues.
The relatively low BA and high Ks scare me a bit about an offensive slump but I under-rate this offense. They had a 107 OPS+ and the Dodgers/Nats are down at 98 and the Giants/Mets down at 94. The Giants are doing a bit of a Royals/Angels impersonation -- #4 in BA, easily the fewest Ks -- but that BA is only 2 points higher than the Cubs. So among NL playoff teams, the Cubs are tied #2 in BA, #1 in OBP by a good bit, #1 in SLG barely and #1 in ISO barely. So other than maybe the Giants' contact ability, the Cubs' offense looks no more slump-prone than the others.
I suppose I worry a bit that a good part of what made the Cubs such a good regular season team was depth (rotation and position) but that usually doesn't play that big of a role in the postseason.
(which means I can't post in the other thread now after making this post)
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