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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Thursday, June 16, 2016FinallyThe Cubs have finally made one of the more obvious and inevitable moves with their roster this season. No, not that one, the other one. Tim Federowicz isn’t on the team anymore. He’s been replaced as the third catcher by Willson Contreras, arguably the Cubs best prospect. Contreras had absolutely dominated AAA this year, hitting .350/.439/.591, with only 32Ks in 239PAs. His bat appears the be the real deal. The only thing that was holding him back was the Cubs’ belief that he needed more work on managing the game, including pitch framing. Well, calling him up to the bigs to be around Ross and Montero is probably the best way for him to learn how to do that now. Now is a great time for him to learn, and if he picks it up, there’s nothing Montero or Ross are doing or can do to keep him from having the job fulltime when the fall rolls around. I’m ecstatic that the Cubs have continued to be aggressive with promoting guys even with the expected contention. This exciting season just got a little more exciting. Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: June 16, 2016 at 01:12 PM | 42 comment(s)
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1. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: June 16, 2016 at 01:18 PM (#5244939)I assumed the other obvious thing was what this was about, but this is more exciting (and really, the other thing has to happen in a matter of days, doesn't it?).
Though, I see he actually got released by Atlanta, not Baltimore - so I'm guessing he's probably cooked.
Still, Matusz was very good from 2013-2015 and has very pronounced LOOGY splits.
From what I've read - it was a back injury, not something arm/shoulder/elbow related - that has wrecked his season thus far, so who knows?
My guess is that if he can get righted at Iowa, he's the next pitcher.
I wonder if Federowicz will be claimed...
I suppose it'll evolve as time goes on, but I'm just curious if there's any sense of when he might get his first start. But this is very cool news!
He's a righty, yes. Which is why everyone assumes next year will be a full-on platoon (or more games for Contreras) with Ross retiring.
The reports I heard is that the Cubs actually intend to stretch Matusz out as a starter.
"Homegrown" could be
Rizzo
Bryant
Almora
Russell
Szczur
Contreras
Baez
Soler
Hendricks
Rondon
Except they'll have to do it with two Ls.
Huh.
That seems odd. Matusz's career splits are pretty pronounced - and while he had a solid rookie year in the O's rotation, it seemed like he had found a home in their bullpen till this year.
But it does raise some questions about what happens next. I don't know if anyone has mentioned this, but Kyle Schwarber made his major league debut one year ago today. A lot of the same discussions about keeping Schwarber down on the farm happened in 2015, but things changed when Montero got hurt. This year, Montero is hurt but not on the DL, so it's a different story. As the 2015 season progressed and after Montero came back, Schwarber more and more was used in OF roles, because of his bat. If Contreras hits well, there will be a strong force to play him in other positions, probably catching less and less. Now, Contreras is not the same physical specimen Schwarber is -- scouts seem to see him as an athletic catcher (Schwarber is surprisingly athletic, but he looks more like a DH). Plus, Contreras has fellow Venezuelan Montero to work with; hopefully that will be a good mentorship situation regarding catching.
My point though is that the Cubs now have three catchers on the roster, one of whom (assuming Contreras keeps hitting) is not entirely superfluous. This force will put him at times in LF, 1B, wherever. Maybe most of the time. The project of making Contreras a major league catcher will always come second to the project of winning the World Series. And there are going to be consequences to that.
Anyway...
I'm going to see them next weekend in Miami. I hope it's a happy homecoming for AA Jr.
Or maybe it will be none of that.
I'm not sure I see that. Maybe 1B on the rare days Rizzo takes off, but barring injury, he's going to play 150-155 game. The Cubs don't really have any holes elsewhere. They haven't gotten great production in LF (and RF) because Soler (and Heyward) has scuffled this season, but between some combination of Soler, Almora, Bryant, Coghlan, and Szczur, I don't see whey they'd try to add their catcher of the future into the mix out there.
Now it looks like Montero may already be down to an 80-game C at best (Cubs know more about his health than I do) and Ross is gone after this year so there's a clear path to Contreras getting at least 80 starts next year, in line with fairly standard C development. From a defensive perspective, I'll guess it would have been better to keep him down for another couple of months at least (get him up to 170+ games caught at AA/AAA) but spending time on the bench in the bigs won't kill him. Anyway, I don't expect to see him in LF/1B much at all.
I assume Ross continues to get the Lester starts. Contreras will get any other start against LHP and he'll get any day game after night game start when neither is a Lester and a few more starts here or there. Call it 22 starts for Ross (stuff happens), 32 for Conteras, 44 for Montero. Injuries, wrapping up the division super early, etc. would lead to changes.
Stolen from Welington Castillo.
My point though is that the Cubs now have three catchers on the roster, one of whom (assuming Contreras keeps hitting) is not entirely superfluous. This force will put him at times in LF, 1B, wherever. Maybe most of the time. The project of making Contreras a major league catcher will always come second to the project of winning the World Series. And there are going to be consequences to that.
To expand a little on Walt's point, I really don't think that it's that similar to Schwarber last year. There were always questions about whether or not Schwarber would be a full time catcher, so it always made sense to try him out in other spots and continue to try and make him a catcher. That really isn't a question for Contreras now, even though he wasn't a catcher his entire career.
When Schwarber was called up last year, he had only caught 93 games in the minors, and had only been a pro* for just over a year. Contreras has caught 341 minor/winter league games. Even though I agree with Walt that ideally you catch more in AA/AAA, there's really no question what position he plays. The Cubs have spoken about how the only part of his defensive development left is the nuances, and they appear to think that can happen in the bigs.
Now, I'm not going to say he'll only play catcher - Maddon played Coghlan at 2nd multiple times last year, and has thrown Bryant at CF and SS, so everything is on the table - but I think the idea of finalizing Contreras' defensive development isn't something that contradicts with the current goal of winning the 2016 WS. His bat can help now, but they don't need it today. IMO, the goal should be to do everything they can to try to make it so they're comfortable with him being the starting catcher in September and October. Last year, they were in a race to make the playoffs when Schwarber came up, there's a lot more leeway this year with Contreras. Wouldn't an ideal 25 man roster for the playoffs not include 3 catchers? Let's hope Contreras can make either Ross or Montero superfluous by then.
A lot of this applies to Almora also, though I don't think the ideal situation is him starting in CF or LF in the playoffs (unless Soler is hurt, or traded). But he will play in the playoffs too.
*The Cubs have consistently talked about wanting their picks - Bryant and Schwarber specifically - spending a full year in the minors at least.
He played mostly 3B, some 1B, some corner OF his first couple years but the Cubs have made the dedicated shift to C a truly dedicated shift.
That said, if Contreras REALLY hits - I see no problem with getting the occasional PAs in 1B/LF/3B (perhaps not starting, but maybe switching around, etc).
Combined batting line for Ross/Montero/Whatshisface in June:
8 hits in 55 at bats, no doubles, no triples, 1 homer. 7 walks (2 intentional), and a GIDP. That works out to a slash line of .148/.246/.204 and an OPS of 450. On defense, they have 2 errors and have thrown out 2 out of 16 base runners.
Sure there are a lot of differences too: Contreras has more experience and seems to have much better tools than Schwarber, and the opportunity exists now to modulate Montero's role downward to get Contreras some time behind the plate. It still doesn't leave a lot of room for it though. It's something you have to allow to evolve on its own, and it's a nice problem to have.
Even granting that Montero and Ross batted in front of the pitcher this month, that seems like very poor managing.
The last time the Cubs had a >10.5 game lead at any time in a season: 1929? I am not sure.
The 1984 team maxed out at 9.5. 1969 peaked at 9. The 1935 team, the last one to win 100 games, didn't touch first place until Sep 13, in the middle of their 21 game win streak. 1932 peaked at 8. So yeah, probably 1929. They got as high as 14.5 up. If these guys match that, then it's back to 1907 for 18.5 up, then 1906 for their all time high of 20.
Of course, the Cubs themselves have a little to do with that; it's easier to have a division full of .522-and-under rivals when you're beating the crap out of all four of them. (They're 20-6 against the NL Central. 7-1 against Pittsburgh, 6-1 against the Reds, 4-2 against the Cards (all in St. Louis), 3-2 against Milwaukee.)
In any event, .522's an 85-win pace, which is more than your 2006 world champion Saint Louis Cardinals (and a handful of other division winners) managed. I don't know how that compares to a typical second place record in the wild card era (paging bbmck), but flip a couple games and their record would be the second best among the teams currently in second place; they're all of a half game behind the Dodgers, a game behind the Mets and Mariners, and a game and a half behind the Royals, and those teams ain't facing no 10.5 game deficit. I'm thinking the Cubs' lead has a lot more to do with their being really ####### good than with their division competiton's being especially weak.
Not bbmck, but looking at 2nd place winners from 2006-15 ..... it averages out to a .543 winning percentage, about an 88-74 record.
Odd thing: the two lowest averages in that period have been the two most recent years: .531 in 2014 and .536 in 2015. I assume it's because: 1) the AL has been fairly bunched up in recent years (especially last year) so everyone's closer to .500, and 2) the AL is still overall the better league with an overall better winning percentage, so even if the NL separates more into stars'n'scrubs, the overall league record is still tilted under .500.
Records .522 or lower:
3 times in 2015
2 times in 2014
1 time in 2011
1 time in 2010
2 times in 2008
1 time in 2007
1 time in 2006
There were also .525s in 2012 and 2006. And a .528 in 2009.
So that's 14 out of 60 under .530. And only 11 lower than the current Cards record.
2006: .541 (88-74)
2007: .546 (88-74)
2008: .538 (87-75)
2009: .552 (89-73)
2010: .546 (88-74)
2011: .537 (87-75)
2012: .555 (90-72)
2013: .550 (89-73)
2014: .531 (86-76)
2015: .536 (87-75)
Apropos of nothing in this thread, happy Father's Day, AR (and the rest of you offsprung gents), btw.
Grandpa Rossy got a card from his "eldest son"
Awesome. On both guys.
His previous teams? He's only been on one previous team.
Looking up the 2011-14 D-backs, they didn't really have any young catchers. Best I can find is 27-year-old Konrad Schmidt in 2012. Montero was 28 that year
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