BBTF's Gonfalon Cubs Discussion :: First Half Summary and Trade Rumor Thread

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101. McCoy Posted: July 20, 2012 at 10:14 AM (#4187863)

My money is on Dempster pitching for the Cubs tonight and I hope he can keep his scoreless streak going.

102. God can’t be all that impressed with Charles S. Posted: July 20, 2012 at 10:17 AM (#4187866)

103. Cabbage Posted: July 20, 2012 at 10:29 AM (#4187872)

Cubs signed Juan Carlos Paniagua, a Dominican RHP, for $1.5 million, and a SS for $700K: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/07/cubs-sign-juan-carlos-paniagua-for-1-5-million/

Paniagua had previously tried to sign with Arizona and the Yanks, but both those contracts were voided by MLB for fraudulent paperwork. Paniagua's signing suspensions ended and he signed with the Cubs.

It looks like the RHP will count toward next year's international bonus pool, but the SS made it in before the deadline. Or I could be misreading.

104. McCoy Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4188012)

Interesting how public they are being about Coleman meeting them in STL. If they float that they are close to a deal with LAD, does that get Wash or Atl or someone to panic and come in with a knock-me-out offer? We don't know haw this will turn out, but these guys seem such an upgrade from Hendry that it's as if they're playing different games.

Well, Hendry never got to be in rebuild mode. He inherited a team that was on the up and assembled his team. There was no way he would have ever been allowed to go into rebuild mode. For him to go into rebuild mode would mean his team had failed and if his team failed it would be unlikely that Hendry would be brought back to rebuild the team. So Hendry kept throwing pieces onto the team in the hopes that it would click and secure his tenure. Which means that he was never able to shop a "good" Zambrano or Marmol for prospects and such. He had to shop prospects for major leaguers.

but these guys seem such an upgrade from Hendry that it's as if they're playing different games.

Alas the same results, a losing record.

105. God can’t be all that impressed with Charles S. Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4188042)

He was able to shop a good Lilly, and it was his own stupid fault that he drove down the values of guys like Farnsworth and Sosa before trading them.
Saying "Alas the same results..." at this point is just absurd. This is still mostly Hendry's creation and is evidence of what Hendry would have accomplished without the massive financial advantage the Trib gave him.

106. SouthSideRyan Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:58 PM (#4188060)

I don't believe Paniagua counts because he was previously suspended.

107. McCoy Posted: July 20, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4188066)

Saying "Alas the same results..." at this point is just absurd.

Yep, in three years or so I might be able to say something different.

Farnsworth?

Sosa? They got Fontenot and Hairston for him which was a pretty good haul for a severely declining slugger.

108. SouthSideRyan Posted: July 20, 2012 at 01:07 PM (#4188083)

Right, he was able to shop Lilly and wound up with junk. He was able to shop Greg Maddux, and he said oooh Cesar Izturis!

109. McCoy Posted: July 22, 2012 at 10:25 AM (#4189036)

Well, let's see what Theo gets for his chits. 9 days left and nothing has moved yet.

Lilly was coming off an injury that cost him the end of 2009 and start of 2010. Greg Maddux was 40 years old. What do you think he could have gotten for him?

110. Brian C Posted: July 22, 2012 at 11:12 AM (#4189051)

He would have been better off getting lottery tickets for Maddux than Izturis. For that matter, he probably would have been better off with Maddux than Izturis.

111. Brian C Posted: July 22, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4189175)

Official site says that Dolis has been sent down, and Jeff Beliveau has been recalled. Beliveau seems like a typical Hendry-era guy, with very good K rates who also tends to walk a lot of hitters. His minor league numbers look awfully similar to Scott Maine's, although Beliveau is 2 years younger.

It'll give the Cubs three lefties in the pen, which is odd.

112. McCoy Posted: July 22, 2012 at 08:10 PM (#4189330)

I doubt the Cubs wanted to risk having Maddux accept arbitration.

113. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 23, 2012 at 02:17 PM (#4189805)

The Braves are reportedly close to acquiring Dempster.

Aside from their minor leaguers, I think both Minor and Jurrjens are interesting players who might be undervalued and I wouldn't mind adding. The Braves probably aren't anywhere near giving up on Minor, though.

114. SG Posted: July 23, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4189816)

According to Rotoworld it may be Randall Delgado.

115. SouthSideRyan Posted: July 23, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4189856)

Law and Goldstein confirm Delgado is in the trade.

116. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 23, 2012 at 02:57 PM (#4189858)

Law is sying Delgado is definitely in if the trade happens.

Somebody from MLB.com says the trade is done but is unsure if Delgado is in it.

117. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 23, 2012 at 03:03 PM (#4189867)

I guess I have to eat my words. Delgado was a top 50 2012 prospect according to BA.

Also, Cubs are sending cash.

118. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: July 23, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4189949)

The idea that Theo has to prove himself is odd to me. But we've been over this before...

119. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 26, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4192877)

Asencio has been outrighted to Iowa. Is anyone aware of a corresponding move or might this be a sign that a trade is happening and someone outside the org is going to be added to the 25?

120. Brian C Posted: July 26, 2012 at 05:18 PM (#4192935)

Asencio has been outrighted to Iowa. Is anyone aware of a corresponding move or might this be a sign that a trade is happening and someone outside the org is going to be added to the 25?

He was DFA'd when Germano was added to the roster.

121. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 26, 2012 at 09:48 PM (#4193221)

According to Heyman the Dodgers rejected a Dempster for Allen Webster deal and have only offered a couple of low level prospects who project as relievers. It may be irrational but there's a point where you take your ball and go home.

122. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 27, 2012 at 09:57 AM (#4193484)

So, four days until the deadline and only Marlon Byrd has been traded this season. Dempster may be staying put and Garza's injury (and paternity leave preventing him from showing his health before the deadline) may render him untradeable before this offseason.

It may be a quiet deadline for the Cubs after all.

123. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 27, 2012 at 10:17 AM (#4193496)

According to Heyman the Dodgers rejected a Dempster for Allen Webster deal and have only offered a couple of low level prospects who project as relievers. It may be irrational but there's a point where you take your ball and go home.

That's not all irrational. #### Dempster. Make him the lowest qualifying offer for compensation and tell him NOT to accept it or he'll be pitching mop-up. Take the comp pick and move on -- making sure to negotiate exemptions into the next 30something player you'll have for 5+ years.

124. Andere Richtingen

Posted: July 27, 2012 at 10:25 AM (#4193501)

Take the comp pick and move on -- making sure to negotiate exemptions into the next 30something player you'll have for 5+ years.

Can such an exemption be made? It's in the CBA.

That said, the problem for the Cubs isn't the 5 and 10 rule, it's Hendry signing every free agent with a no-trade clause. Dempster has earned his right as far as I'm concerned.

125. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 27, 2012 at 10:50 AM (#4193528)

Can such an exemption be made? It's in the CBA.

I think so - 10/5 was in the last CBA, too - but the Astros' contract with Carlos Lee included an exemption that defined only a limited set of teams he could veto a trade after he made it to 10/5. I don't see why such a thing couldn't be negotiated again -- of course, it would be traded for something (more $$$, etc), so I'm being slightly tongue-in-cheek about demanding the clause...

126. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 27, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4193612)

And now it's official. Garza won't be starting until late next week.

Oh boy, time to see what kind of haul Maholm can fetch.

127. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM (#4193618)

And now it's official. Garza won't be starting until late next week.

Oh boy, time to see what kind of haul Maholm can fetch.

Garza actually doesn't concern me as much...

He's young enough that I wouldn't be averse to extending him - at a good price - he could well be the 'Dempster' of the next good Cubs team; the grizzled innings eater in the middle of the rotation. He can also be traded after the season without - to my mind - that much of a difference in his value.

Too bad LaHair has all but tanked - I doubt he fetches more than a bargain lottery ticket or spare parts.

I did see yesterday that at least one team has asked the Cubs for some specifics on the parameters of a Soriano trade.

128. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: July 27, 2012 at 02:25 PM (#4193831)

Knobler reports that the two clubs are discussing a package deal where the Dodgers would acquire Dempster and outfielder Alfonso Soriano, and have also talked about Bryan LaHair.

The Dodgers reportedly rebuffed a proposal of Allen Webster straight up for Dempster, but if there is cash and Soriano included, perhaps they budge on their stance, or something else can be worked out between the two teams.

Don't get your hopes up though.

129. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 27, 2012 at 02:40 PM (#4193850)

Olney says the clubs are no longer in contact.

130. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 27, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4193865)

Olney says the clubs are no longer in contact.

If the Dodgers weren't willing to even go UP TO Allen Webster, who looks like a pretty run of the mill mid-rotation starter at best, then screw 'em. If I couldn't get Lee, then Webster would have had to headline a package.

I'll still be ticked at Dempster, but LA's system hasn't excited anyone in more than a generation. It's got a handful of your standard issue toolsy OFers that haven't really learned to play baseball, a few pitchers who might make serviceable relievers, and a couple of low ceiling bargain gems who probably will be solid contributors.

I'll just take my chances with a sandwich pick at this point...

131. McCoy Posted: July 27, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4193905)

Which the Cubs would only get if they make an offer and Dempster doesn't come back.

132. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 27, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4193912)

Plus, they would have Andrew Cashner instead of Anthony Rizzo.

133. McCoy Posted: July 27, 2012 at 03:30 PM (#4193924)

Where was I ever against the Cashner-Rizzo trade?

134. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 27, 2012 at 03:32 PM (#4193928)

Aw crap, wrong thread and edit is busted.

135. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 27, 2012 at 03:48 PM (#4193959)

The Cubs are offering to absorb all but $2 million of Soriano's contract.

136. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 27, 2012 at 04:00 PM (#4193978)

Which the Cubs would only get if they make an offer and Dempster doesn't come back.

There's no reason not to make a 'qualifying offer' -- the pick is 'free', meaning it doesn't have the potential to impact Dempster's chances on the market... Now... ~$12 million MIGHT be more than he get per annum on the market, but I have to think someone would offer him a 2-3 year deal. Plus, if he accepts - we get to do this all over again next July.... Whheeeeeeee!

137. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 29, 2012 at 08:24 AM (#4195039)

Per Heyman the Braves are still monitoring the Ryan Dempster situation.

Keep in mind that Dempster never actually rejected a trade to the Braves, the offer just expired with no approval from Ryan.

138. salviaman Posted: July 29, 2012 at 10:56 AM (#4195084)

Am I the only one 'worried' about Rizzo's plate discipline. By observation he swings at lots of bad pitches and even looks worse than Soriano in this regard. So I looked it up and he would be the 3rd worst in baseball in OSwing% in he had enough PAs to qualify...

139. McCoy Posted: July 29, 2012 at 12:15 PM (#4195115)

Alfonso Soriano has now tied LaHair for leader of the team in OPS+. They both have a 123 OPS+.

140. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 30, 2012 at 03:49 PM (#4196151)

The trade deadline is 24 hours away and still no moves by the Cubs.

Both Scott Miller and Ken Rosenthal are reporting that Dempster/Dodgers trade discussions are back on.

141. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 30, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4196168)

The trade deadline is 24 hours away and still no moves by the Cubs.

Both Scott Miller and Ken Rosenthal are reporting that Dempster/Dodgers trade discussions are back on.

There's also really weird talk that Soriano is being discussed as a possible bundle with Dempster.

Someone better make sure to hide the paper, the TV, the radio, and the internet from Ryan - all this talk of him being traded will give him another sad.

Am I the only one 'worried' about Rizzo's plate discipline. By observation he swings at lots of bad pitches and even looks worse than Soriano in this regard. So I looked it up and he would be the 3rd worst in baseball in OSwing% in he had enough PAs to qualify...

Eh, he just 22 and his K's are wwwaaaayyyy down compared his disastrous 2011 trial run. I think that in the long run, he's probably going to be more Mo Vaughn than say, Jim Thome (i.e, ~70 BBs/140 Ks vs. 120/160) - but you can build an offense around that.

Besides, I'm too busying worrying about Castro's season of regression to be concerned about Rizzo.

142. just plain joe Posted: July 30, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4196207)

Am I the only one 'worried' about Rizzo's plate discipline. By observation he swings at lots of bad pitches and even looks worse than Soriano in this regard. So I looked it up and he would be the 3rd worst in baseball in OSwing% in he had enough PAs to qualify...

Not a Cubs' fan so I'm not worried but have seen Rizzo play several games and I wonder why any pitcher would throw him a strike. Of course lots of hitters will chase the breaking ball in the dirt; I used to watch the Cubs more regularly and S. Dunston never learned not to do this. In any case, if I were an opposing pitching coach, I would make sure that Rizzo saw off-speed pitches and little else. He definitely can punish a fast ball.

143. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 30, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4196227)

BTW -

Carlos Zambrano has lost his spot in the Marlins' rotation... even with Sanchez dealt and Johnson still on the block. Z has been pretty awful since late May - the K/BB ratio is nearing 1:1 pretty quickly. Maybe Ozzie should take him out drinking.

144. salviaman Posted: July 30, 2012 at 05:48 PM (#4196294)

---"Eh, he just 22 and his K's are wwwaaaayyyy down compared his disastrous 2011 trial run. I think that in the long run, he's probably going to be more Mo Vaughn than say, Jim Thome."
********

Well, in his rookie age 23 season, Mo swung at 46% of pitches, which was also the MLB average rate. His career rate was 45 %, so it didn't change much over the years. He also swung at the first pitch 33% of the time over his career.

The notoriously undisciplined A Soriano has swung at 53% of pitches, and 31% of 1st pitches over his career.

This season, the 'revamped' Rizzo is swinging at 56% of the pitches he sees, and 45% on the first pitch. Supposedly, it doesn't take lots of PAs for these tendencies to 'stabilize'.

There aren't many batters who become true stars that swing as much as Rizzo is swinging. Vlad, Hamilton, and maybe a couple others. The league is certainly noticing his impatience, as he is seeing only 39% of the pitches in the zone.

To say that he will still likely become a disciplined hitter is a stretch. Sheffield is one that comes to mind that accomplished this. But it's very unusual.

As far as his K being "wwwaaayyy" down this year, yes, but how is he accomplishing this? By having a decent contact ability, but mainly by being so aggressive that the PA is over before he has 'time' to strike out. Not much of a feather in his cap, IMO.

145. Dan Posted: July 30, 2012 at 06:15 PM (#4196306)

Kind of interesting that Rizzo has been that aggressive since one of his main issues during his Padres cameo was being way too passive at the plate. He had a 13.7% walk rate in his stint in MLB last season, and only swung at 47% of pitches compared to 57% this year. His zone swing was only 66% last year (75% this year), and he was only chasing 35% of pitches out of the zone last season vs. 45% this year. His contact rates are way up too though, and swinging strikes are appropriately way down, which addresses his other big issue last season.

I don't think it's hard to imagine him adjusting to a midpoint between these two approaches, but it will probably take a while for him to settle into that player.

146. salviaman Posted: July 30, 2012 at 06:22 PM (#4196314)

As far as LaHair, it's always said by MLB vets that baseball at this level is a game of making adjustments, to counteract the adjustments the league makes to the player. It looks like LaHair, after making his initial impact, has not done that. Could that be the AAAA player is not just a figment of the snap judgements of the GMs due to small sample MLB performance--but is actually describing a type of player who has pop in his bad but cannot make the necessary adjustments?

147. Rafael Bellylard: The Grinch of Orlando. Posted: July 30, 2012 at 10:14 PM (#4196562)

Apparently Reed Johnson has been traded mid-game tonight. Also, according to another source, Brett Jackson was pulled from the Iowa Cubs game. Perhaps he's getting called up.

148. Meatwad Posted: July 30, 2012 at 10:24 PM (#4196569)

What ever they got its a good trade. He was a nri at camp and will resign with the cubs

149. Rafael Bellylard: The Grinch of Orlando. Posted: July 30, 2012 at 10:27 PM (#4196576)

And now Soto has been pulled from the on-deck circle and is saying his goodbyes.

150. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 30, 2012 at 10:36 PM (#4196588)

And now Soto has been pulled from the on-deck circle and is saying his goodbyes.

I'm not sure I'd move Soto - he's having a dreadful year and his value is at its lowest. He's still got two arb years left and doesn't figure to get a raise on his 3 mil after this season - unless he rebounds the last two months, in which case he might fetch more in a trade.

On the other hand, he could be done... sometimes catchers crap out early.

151. Meatwad Posted: July 30, 2012 at 10:36 PM (#4196590)

Brett jackson removed from his minor league game

152. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 30, 2012 at 10:38 PM (#4196592)

Separate deals -- it's not Soto and Reed in a single deal. Twitter rumors that it's Johnson/Dempster to the Dodgers for Garrett Gould.... not sure I like that unless there's at least two more names I've heard of. I do not care much for LAD's system.

Rumor had it the Mets had a mild degree of interest in Soto.

153. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 30, 2012 at 10:40 PM (#4196593)

Bob Nightengale is speculating that it's Soto to the Tigers for Thomas Collier... meh...

154. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 30, 2012 at 10:46 PM (#4196597)

Rangers now trending on twitter as Soto destination... I do believe that I suggested Garza + Soto for Profar and Perez ;-)

155. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 30, 2012 at 10:52 PM (#4196602)

I have to admit, twitter is kind of cool for stuff like this --

John Morosi reporting it's Johnson + Maholm to the Braves.

156. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 30, 2012 at 10:54 PM (#4196604)

Jacob Brigham from Texas in the Soto trade... meh.

Live-armed 24 yo AA reliever.

157. Meatwad Posted: July 30, 2012 at 10:57 PM (#4196606)

Im curious about jackson being pulled wonder is he is being moved

158. Rafael Bellylard: The Grinch of Orlando. Posted: July 30, 2012 at 10:57 PM (#4196607)

Soriano was removed from the Cubs game now. No report on hugs and kisses, and it is 14-4.

159. Kiko Sakata

Posted: July 30, 2012 at 10:59 PM (#4196609)

Im curious about jackson being pulled wonder is he is being moved

I would think he's coming to Chicago to replace Johnson. If he does, I hope they make him the starting CF. I'm curious to see what he can do.

160. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 30, 2012 at 11:05 PM (#4196615)

Johnson + Maholm to the Braves pretty much confirmed.

Cubs getting two pitchers back - Crasnick says not anyone from Teheran-Minor-Delgado-Gilmartin

161. JJ1986 Posted: July 30, 2012 at 11:08 PM (#4196616)

Live-armed 24 yo AA reliever.

Brigham is mostly a starter.

162. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 30, 2012 at 11:09 PM (#4196618)

Live-armed 24 yo AA reliever.

Brigham is mostly a starter.

Yeah - and decent K rate, too... the scouting reports seem to think his future is in the bullpen.

EDIT: Apparently, he's also Ron Karkovice's nephew.

163. Dan The Mediocre is one of "the rest" Posted: July 30, 2012 at 11:10 PM (#4196623)

Yeah - and decent K rate, too... the scouting reports seem to think his future is in the bullpen.

Potential good reliever for our third best catcher is a good enough deal.

164. Dock Ellis

Posted: July 30, 2012 at 11:11 PM (#4196626)

He has given up 19 HR in 124 innings in the Texas League this year. How much of a hitter's league is it?

165. Dan Posted: July 30, 2012 at 11:11 PM (#4196627)

Would they call up Jackson if they didn't expect to move at least one of Soriano, DeJesus, or LaHair? I guess they could just bench LaHair at this point.

166. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: July 30, 2012 at 11:17 PM (#4196631)

Garza and Jays rumor taking fire on twitter...

Some revived talk of Dempster to LAD, possibly including Soriano.

167. McCoy Posted: July 30, 2012 at 11:40 PM (#4196657)

Thud.

168. Brian C Posted: August 01, 2012 at 11:08 AM (#4197974)

Looks like Volstad is back.

169. Spahn Insane Posted: August 01, 2012 at 11:12 AM (#4197982)

Looks like Volstad is back.

Guess that'd be the answer to my question "Don't we have any stopgaps other than Casey Friggin' Coleman?". Trading Dempster and Maholm was the right thing to do, but the rotation will now rival 2011's for sheer amateurish ugliness.

170. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4198035)

I'm thinking more like 2006's end of season horrible rotation.

171. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: August 01, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4198045)

Guess that'd be the answer to my question "Don't we have any stopgaps other than Casey Friggin' Coleman?". Trading Dempster and Maholm was the right thing to do, but the rotation will now rival 2011's for sheer amateurish ugliness.

Well - Travis Wood had a nice little run when he got his renewed rotation shot. He's fallen back down to earth a bit, but he's still very much worth watching for the remainder of the year.

I feel the same way about Volstad -- yeah, he's been dreadful. But - the team's going nowhere. Let's see if he can actually put together a run that makes it worthwhile to see if he has a future.

Volstad and Wood are certainly in their "last chance to prove you ought to be a rotation regular" phase -- but sometimes pitchers take advantage of that last chance.

172. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:02 PM (#4198051)

And then fall apart the next season.

173. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4198055)

And then fall apart the next season.

Yes, yes... doom... DOOOOOMMM!!!

174. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4198059)

Okay, who are these pitchers that have taken advantage of their "last chance" and have gone on to be productive for at least a season or two afterwards?

I mean I'm all for pie in the sky silver lining but you have to be at least somewhat grounded in reality.

175. Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun) Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4198062)

I mean I'm all for pie in the sky silver lining but you have to be at least somewhat grounded in reality.

Why? That sounds pretty boring.

176. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:16 PM (#4198064)

Why? That sounds pretty boring.

I wasn't aware we all live in a movie.

177. God can’t be all that impressed with Charles S. Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:19 PM (#4198067)

I wasn't aware we all live in a movie.

Take a few deep breaths. It will be all right. I was pretty shook up when I first found out, too.

178. Brian C Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:21 PM (#4198070)

Okay, who are these pitchers that have taken advantage of their "last chance" and have gone on to be productive for at least a season or two afterwards?

I dunno, it sounds a little like the perfect description for Steve Trachsel's career. "Man, this guy's just terrible, we gotta do something about him, this time he's finished for su ... wait, what, he's good again?"

179. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:27 PM (#4198076)

Trachsel for almost his entire career was basically putting up seasons that were good enough to be a #3 pitcher or better.

180. Brian C Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:37 PM (#4198089)

Trachsel for almost his entire career was basically putting up seasons that were good enough to be a #3 pitcher or better.

My kidding aside, Trachsel was awfully touch-and-go early in his career. After a good debut year, he was pretty terrible in his sophomore season, then had another bad season in 1997 (albeit one that looks better through the sabermetric lens of today than it did at the time), and was terrible again in 1999. There were plenty of times back then where it was a real question as to whether or not he was good enough to bother with, and indeed the Cubs let him go after the 1999 season (probably a poor choice, but still).

Frank Castillo is probably a better example of what zonk meant. Mike Bielecki is a good one. In recent years, Randy Wells. Jason Marquis (while with the Cards). Honestly, an undistinguished pitcher in his mid-20s having a decent year or two in the rotation seems like the most normal thing in the world.

181. Brian C Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4198092)

Anyhow, more roster news:

Coleman to Iowa
Alberto Cabrera recalled
Chris Volstad recalled

Cabrera was a starter until this year, but he's been exclusively a reliever between Tennessee and Iowa this year. He's currently rocking a 74/14 K/BB ratio between the two levels, including 29/4 in 19.1 IP since being promoted to Iowa. May be interesting.

I assume that the Cubs are expecting Garza to make his next start if Coleman's been sent back down. Or be DL'd, I guess, but that's depressing to think about.

182. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4198100)

In 1997 Steve was basically an average starter.

I'm not sure Randy Wells fits since we're still waiting on those actual good years to come about.

The Cubs signed Marquis to a 3 year deal. I'm not sure how that qualifies as a "last chance". Frank Castillo was injured in 1994. Mike Bielecki had his good year in 1989 and then stunk as a full time starter after that.

183. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4198101)

184. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2012 at 01:07 PM (#4198115)

Are you guys simply listing players that had a bad season and then had a good one as evidence of "last chance" players making it?

185. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: August 01, 2012 at 01:08 PM (#4198117)

Randy Johnson was fairly dreadful as a 25 yo, still believe average as a 26 yo before becoming useful in his late 20s, then great in his 30s.

David Wells didn't really get a shot starting until he was 27 and it would be a few more years before he became "David Wells".

Doc Halladay, of course, had perhaps the worst season ever by a SP at age 23.

Edwin Jackson took seemingly forever to figure things out.

Jason Hammel's having a solid year in Baltimore for the first time at age 29.

Colby Lewis and CJ Wilson didn't become quality SPs until they hit 30.

Sure - there's injuries, role changes, etc sprinkled in -- but the idea that it's a bad thing for the Cubs to spend August and September seeing if maybe the 25 yo Wood and Volstad have a future because... what... they might show sparks that they do? That, I do not get.

186. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4198120)

I'm not making the claim that "it's a bad thing". I'm making the claim that it is a pointless thing. Volstad and Wood might have a decent 6 game run or so but that doesn't change the fact that they are sub-par pitchers who are likely to pitch sub-par in the future.

187. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4198123)

Chris Volstad has now thrown 545 innings of suck over the last 4 seasons. 6 to 10 starts of decent pitching isn't going to erase that suck. Travis Wood has thrown 184 innings of suck over the last two seasons. Almost 280 innings if you want to count minor league innings as well.

188. Andere Richtingen

Posted: August 01, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4198124)

Are you guys simply listing players that had a bad season and then had a good one as evidence of "last chance" players making it?

I think you're the one who needs to define what you mean by "last chance."

I don't believe that either Wood nor Volstad were or are on their "last chance." Even with neither having done anything to further their causes this season, they will get more chances. Especially the left-handed Wood.

I will be surprised if either of them becomes a front-end rotation starter, but I can easily see either or both having solid careers. Current players that come to mind who had similar track records at age 25 would be Paul Maholm, Kyle Lohse and... wait for it... Ryan Dempster.

189. Brian C Posted: August 01, 2012 at 01:19 PM (#4198125)

In 1997 Steve was basically an average starter.

I'm not sure Randy Wells fits since we're still waiting on those actual good years to come about.

2009 and 2010 don't count? I didn't realize we were limited to Cy Young candidates. We can debate the precise meaning of "last chance" (and it's not like we know that either Coleman or Volstad are on their "last chance" anyway), but he was given a long-shot chance at the rotation as a 26-year-old. How many more do you think he would have gotten? But he had two decent years.

The Cubs signed Marquis to a 3 year deal. I'm not sure how that qualifies as a "last chance".

I specifically said "while with the Cards".

Mike Bielecki had his good year in 1989 and then stunk as a full time starter after that.

I thought your criteria was "productive for at least a season or two".

The point is just like I said - it's not remotely odd for undistinguished pitchers in their mid-20s to have a decent year or two. I don't know if you're objecting to zonk's actual point or if you just don't like the way he chose to word it.

190. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2012 at 01:32 PM (#4198134)

And I acknowledged that his 1997 season looks better in retrospect. But I was alive in 1997 and virtually no one was saying that Trachsel was "average" that year and I really doubt the organization viewed him as such. In all likelihood he needed to have a good 1998 to stay in the rotation.

I was alive in 1998 as well. He was in the rotation from the very beginning as their #4 pitcher and in terms of conventional stats he had almost the exact same year as he did in 1997 except his team won 7 more games when he was pitching.

2009 and 2010 don't count?

So when was his "last chance"? Why would his first year as a major league starter be his "last chance"?

Jason Marquis hit FA after 2006 and why would the Cards view 2006 as Marquis' "last chance" to prove himself in the rotation heading into that season?

I thought your criteria was "productive for at least a season or two".

Yes, after their last chance. Zonk stated that the rest of this season was Wood and Volstad's "last chance" to prove themselves in the rotation and I countered with that even if they somehow do decent the rest of this year they'll probably suck next year.

it's not remotely odd for undistinguished pitchers in their mid-20s to have a decent year or two.

Yes it happens but you don't exactly plan for it to happen. You don't pencil in some pitcher into the rotation who has thrown 540 innings of suck so far in the hopes that he is one of those undistinguished pitchers that happens to have a decent year.

191. Zonk Won the Mental Acuity Golf Trophy at his Club Posted: August 01, 2012 at 01:42 PM (#4198151)

Is anyone imagining Palpatine in a White Sox cap intoning in that voice "Yessss.... yesss.... goood -- let the pessimism FLOW through you. Soon, your transformation will be complete"

192. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2012 at 01:46 PM (#4198157)

Chris Volstad has a 86 ERA+ through his first 5 seasons. That is 13th worst since 1982. Yes there are a few names around him that went on to have a decent career but a) they pitched better than him in those 5 awful seasons and b) and weird career arcs for the most part.

Chris is also tied for 4th worst 2nd through 5th seasons since 1982.

193. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2012 at 01:47 PM (#4198159)

Is anyone imagining Palpatine in a White Sox cap intoning in that voice "Yessss.... yesss.... goood -- let the pessimism FLOW through you. Soon, your transformation will be complete"

We're supposed to be optimistic about Chris Volstad?

194. Brian C Posted: August 01, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4198164)

in terms of conventional stats he had almost the exact same year as he did in 1997 except his team won 7 more games when he was pitching.

Jason Marquis hit FA after 2006 and why would the Cards view 2006 as Marquis' "last chance" to prove himself in the rotation heading into that season?

I was thinking before that. How much longer do you think he'd have been in the rotation if he had not had a good 2004?

So when was his "last chance"? Why would his first year as a major league starter be his "last chance"?

Because he was an fairly marginal player at an advanced age (for his first shot) who was unlikely to get another chance? "First" and "last" aren't mutually exclusive.

Yes it happens but you don't exactly plan for it to happen. You don't pencil in some pitcher into the rotation who has thrown 540 innings of suck so far in the hopes that he is one of those undistinguished pitchers that happens to have a decent year.

Who's planning for it to happen? They're short on options and they might as well see if the guys they have can turn it around. This isn't all that profound.

195. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2012 at 01:51 PM (#4198167)

Travis Wood is tied for 68th worst start to his career since 1982 in terms of starting pitching ERA+. There aren't a whole lot of pitchers that did worst than him that went on to have a decent stretch of starting pitching in their near future.

196. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4198176)

Well, that's just plain disingenuous, ignoring one of the key "conventional stats", because you know as well as I do that W-L still had an enormous impact on how people thought about pitchers in 1998. That's why Steve Trachsel was the #1 starter going into 1999 instead of the #4.

His ERA was virtually the same. Strikeouts and HR were slightly down while his BB were up.

As for opening day starters who else was it going to be? The only holdovers from 1998 were Tapani and Trachsel and Trachsel was the home grown boy while Tapani was the mercenary in 1998 so Trachesl got the nod despite Tapani winning 19 games in 1998.

197. McCoy Posted: August 01, 2012 at 02:00 PM (#4198180)

I was thinking before that. How much longer do you think he'd have been in the rotation if he had not had a good 2004?

Well, Volstad has been allowed to throw over 500 innings of suck and Wood is nearing 200 innings of suck so I think Marquis was going to be allowed to throw some more innings.

Who's planning for it to happen? They're short on options and they might as well see if the guys they have can turn it around. This isn't all that profound.

Turn it around to what? Again, my stance is that even if Wood and Volstad have a good 6 to 10 game run they still are sucky pitchers likely to have sucky years. A decent short run doesn't negate the years of futility.

198. Brian C Posted: August 01, 2012 at 02:06 PM (#4198186)

Turn it around to what? Again, my stance is that even if Wood and Volstad have a good 6 to 10 game run they still are sucky pitchers likely to have sucky years. A decent short run doesn't negate the years of futility.

OK, fine, so what? I don't expect much from Volstad either, and I suspect zonk doesn't either. But what do you do?

Put it this way ... It's August 1, Theo and Jed have just been fired, and McCoy is now GM - who's in the rotation?

199. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: August 01, 2012 at 02:07 PM (#4198188)

Well 2013 is going to be another cattle call open audition for major league pitchers. Six games won't tell you much but there is a larger window to see what happens.

200. Brian C Posted: August 01, 2012 at 02:10 PM (#4198196)

Jamie Moyer had an 87 ERA+ through 700 major league innings, although if anything he blows the entire concept of "last chance" right out of the water.

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