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I also asked to leave work early today and got to the neighborhood bar right after the Nats had taken a 1-0 and the Cubs were still being no-hit. So my exuberance may be partially explained by the four "whiskey gingers" that I've downed since then...
Also, I just gotta note that I love me some Albert Almora. A Bill James quote resonates in my mind when I watch him play: 100% ballplayer 0% bullshit.
I wonder how many postseason games there have been with a final winning team line score of 2 runs, 4 hits, 4 errors. Probably not many.
Some questionable decisions by Joe, but zobrist did come through. I'll take it, and feel pretty confident about roark tomorrow.
I am guessing a postponement until tomorrow would mean the Nats swap Strasburg for Roark.
But it feels like both teams have played a really sharp series. Yesterday - even with Schwarber's Moreland impersonation that led to a run - it feels like a couple of sterling plays more or less evened out the errors.
The intertube's accuweather hourly forecast says there's window at 7 PM and another at 11 PM.... Can Kyle go on short rest? He only needs about 90 minutes to get a game in.
They said yesterday they were keeping the 4:30pm start time cause they thought that gave them the best chance, but it looks like it going to still be raining then (it hasn't started yet, but it will well before then).
I got back and forth, but I think we see the same lineup as yesterday. Roark has even bigger splits L vs R than Scherzer. I don't think Joe would bench Schwarber because of yesterday's miscue - in fact, I bet he wants him to have a chance to redeem himself. I'd like to have Baez in for defense, so I also might not be too upset if the OF was Jay/Heyward/Zobrist instead of Schwarber. I have accepted the back that Zobrist will play, and that he did indeed somewhat redeem himself with his bat and glove.
I brought it up in the chatter, and it didn't matter, but I did think it was odd that Zobrist was in LF in the 9th instead of either Martin or Jay.
I can't even tell if this is serious or not. If it is, that's one of the dumbest things I've heard in quite a while.
Athletes are weird, but whatever works.
Yeah, I heard that, but I thought Rizzo was smarter than that sort of athlete mookery. I mean, first of all, it's not like you slammed a double into the gap to drive in the run - you hit a blooper that arguably should have been caught and then TOOTBLANned to end the inning. And moreover, what, you want to encourage them to walk you in key situations from now on?
game 4 back another day
Strasburg with Cubs bats will play
Scherzer relief in clincher, hey!
You can't apply logic to heat of the moment things like that.
Sure, but still, Rizzo just doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would react that way even in the heat of the moment. That seems more like Harper's kind of thing. Followed by a hair flip, of course.
Jay/Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras/Zobrist(RF)/Schwarber/Russell/Baez
I'll take it, I guess. At least it's not both Zobrist and Heyward in there.
I'm fine with this. I wonder what happens if they start the game and there's a long delay - Lackey or Montgomery when it resumes?
But I still feel good about the prospects.
Worst case, Hendricks/Gonazalez in game 5 isn't the worst matchup for the Cubs, but here's hoping it won't come to it.
Oh boy. I know game 4 is an elimination game, so you can't really plan everything for game 5, but Strasburg/Gonzalez is WAY better than Roark/Strasburg. If they lose game 4 with Strasbury healthy and ready to go, Dusty might as well plan his retirement. If they still win tomorrow...
It really does behoove the Cubs to end it today and not have to worry about facing Strasburg again.
And because he's in town -- today's the 70th b-day for longtime Washington sportswriter Thomas Boswell.
I want to see schwarber, I don't want to overreact but I really would rather not see Jay at leadoff, and preferably one of heyward or zobrist also sits.
I assume Joe's plan for G5 now is for Hendricks to get through the first 18-20 batters then, depending on where the score and pitch count are, switching to Quintana when Harper/Murphy are coming around for the 3rd time. I suspect we'll see Strop in the Edwards spot; maybe Lackey. I won't be shocked to see Lester in a key LOOGy spot.
I need to rearrange my schedule for tomorrow in order to ensure that I can catch tomorrow's game. I'm not sure I will make it out alive.
I want a strong defense on the field with Hendricks pitching, so I would lean toward starting Heyward. I really don't know what your problem is with Jay as a leadoff hitter: he gets on base and he's fast. His 2017 numbers are based on way too small a sample to take seriously. For his entire career, he is fine at leadoff compared to his overall performance (.711 OPS at leadoff, .746 overall).
That said, I would go with Almora leading off and starting in CF. Good to have his righty bat, and I think he's a better CFer than Jay.
I would not start Schwarber against a LHP in an elimination game. Sorry.
I'd go with Almora in CF, Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Happ playing LF, Russell, Heyward in RF, Baez, Hendricks. Possibly swapping Baez and Russell, but that's minor. And of course Zobrist should not start, but if Maddon insists, in place of Heyward in RF, and batting no higher than seventh.
The Jay at leadoff thing is one of those situations where it feels just as bad as the numbers look. Enough so that I find myself trying to think of reasons why it's that way - and I can't think of any. So yeah, it's probably a fluke - just like Bryant's RISP stuff this year.
Of course, none of that matters if basically the entire lineup continues to not hit.
If he switches to Quintana who, exactly, would start a potential LCS game 1? Arrieta went 4 and Lester 3.1 yesterday, so I assume they're out; they'd be on 2 days rest for the opener, Q and Hendricks on 1.
If this is Q's side day anyway, and he throws a limited number of pitches, I suppose that might still work, but I can't imagine why that'd be plan A. (And if you're limiting Q thusly tonight, what's the point of using him at all, particularly since he's been prone to first-inning hiccups. If that pattern repeats itself, you're probably pitching yourself out of a good chance to win tonight, but if OTOH he pitches much beyond an inning, he probably isn't available Saturday. Yes, I'm aware the Cubs need to win today and then think about Saturday, but this seems sub-optimal, and I'll be surprised if I see it.)
Assuming it is Gonzalez, I just hope the Cubs remember that he led the league in walks.
I'll give you a hint: He has the face of both ends of a horse.
I don't think Quintana should be brought in unless the very existence of that Game 1 for the Cubs is in significant jeopardy. Maddon will probably be a lot more liberal about that than I would.
Co-signed as to both parts.
Yeah, I'll repeat my question.
EDIT: Lackey might not actually be terrible in a Dodger Stadium night game, not that I particularly relish the thought. His big vulnerability's the home run ball, which might be mitigated some in that environment.
Agreed. Q's a good pitcher, but he's ill-suited to LOOGY work it seems to me, and I don't think having him available as a break-glass option justifies a quick hook for Hendricks.
I know Joe's been somewhat better about letting Hendricks pitch lately, but I've just got a bad feeling that he's going to revert back to Game 7 last year and decide before the game that Hendricks is coming out after a certain batter, no matter what and come hell or high water, ain't no mountain high enough, etc. The more I think about it, the more I dislike the trend of managers making iron-clad in-game decisions before the game actually happens.
I hope Joe gives Kyle the same leash he got in game one, because none of that above is inspiring to me.
I certainly wouldn't be worried about the NLCS if I needed/wanted to use him -- but I certainly wouldn't gameplan/PLAN to use him.
If the game situation makes sense to use him, by all means... but something like Hendricks for 5 then Quintana for 3 (whatever) is to be avoided.
It would be swell if the Cubs just rang Gio's clock early, Hendricks cruises, and it's just a few innings of mop-up work for whomever in an 8-1 Cubs win.
That was with Lester available, and he already blew that wad.
Quintana can go an inning today and still start game 1 on Saturday.
True, but I think there are few circumstances where bringing Quintana in for a short stint are warranted. If you have to bring someone in in the 4th or 5th, then you would like them to go a few innings. Later in the game, despite the bullpen problems we've seen, Quintana is not such an attractive option. Do I trust Jose Quintana, who hasn't made a relief appearance since his rookie year, over, say, Mike Montgomery? Or John Lackey? Who actually did appear in relief the last day of the regular season, for the first time in four years, and coughed up a couple of hits and a run? I dunno.
Yep.
I certainly wouldn't be worried about the NLCS if I needed/wanted to use him -- but I certainly wouldn't gameplan/PLAN to use him.
I think you'd have to plan to use him if you're going to consider it; as a starter without (recent?) bullpen experience is you can't decide in game he's an option. They need to decide before the game with him.
True, but I think there are few circumstances where bringing Quintana in for a short stint are warranted. If you have to bring someone in in the 4th or 5th, then you would like them to go a few innings. Later in the game, despite the bullpen problems we've seen, Quintana is not such an attractive option. Do I trust Jose Quintana, who hasn't made a relief appearance since his rookie year, over, say, Mike Montgomery? Or John Lackey? Who actually did appear in relief the last day of the regular season, for the first time in four years, and coughed up a couple of hits and a run? I dunno.
Totally agree here. That's why Kyle has to go 9.
No truth to the rumor that I was recruited to write the related article.
Since it's officially Gio, here was game 2's lineup:
Almora
Bryant
Rizzo
Contreras
Russell
Zobrist
Baez
Happ
Happ was better against lefties than righties (.863OPS vs .769), so I'm ok with leaving him 8th. Even though Baez hasn't done anything this series, there's a part of me that still likes him not hitting directly in front of the pitcher (who knows if there's even an ounce of evidence for this*, but if feels like he might see a pitch or two more to hit/in the zone when the pitcher isn't behind him). If Heyward is going to play for defense - and I honestly think he should**, he can hit 7th and put Happ between Russell/Baez just for when Dusty starts the reliever brigade.
*Baez actually hit much better 8th this year (.883) than 6th (.777) or 7th (.657), some of which is buoyed by the 10 IBB he saw in the 8 spot. So my theory may be even more bullshitty than usual.
**I agree with everyone who says defense in important, but I also rather have Zobrist as a PH option, though I'll be shocked if Joe doesn't start him in an elimination game - and he probably starts instead of Happ.
Cubs lineup: Jay(LF)/Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras/Almora/Russell/Heyward/Baez.
So Joe isn't going full platoon by starting Jay/Heyward. Schwarber probably hits for Almora vs. Scherzer (maybe Roark, but there's defensive considerations there). I agree with Heyward starting for defense purposes (Zobrist is pretty useless against lefties this year anyway).
I know it's just a sample size issue, but I can't get over how Jay has been worse this year hitting leadoff than in any other situation.
If the big bats hit though, most of my concerns are lessened.
Concur.
Half an hour to quitting time, 3.5 hours to game time. Pedal to the metal.
One of the theories I've had and that I've seen bounced around here is that it's fairly obvious whether CJ has "it" or not early in his appearances. That would mean I would guess his walks (and lesser so, hits) are bunched in appearances. So looking at this season:
He pitching 66.1 innings in 73 games (excluding postseason for now). Of those 73, 34 were clean (no hits or walks), and his 38 walks happened in 28 games (9 games with more than 1 walk). His 29 hits happened in 22 games (only 6 games with more than 1 hit). His 6 HRs game in games when he allowed 6 walks and 9 total hits (so 3 non-HR hits). He had 21 games with only 1 hit or walk (no HR in those games). So that's 45 of 73 appearances with 0 or 1 bb/h allowed, and 28 with 2 or more h/BB.
In the postseason, he has pitched in 4 games. 2 games were clean (3 total Ks), and he had one game with 2h/1bb (1 HR) and one game with 2 bbs/no outs or hits.
Ok, there's no real conclusion to draw here. Nothing to see...
How the hell did we make it? Who do we play?
Low, but a smokeout is possible.
That's just what lots of Yankees fans are feeling. Time for an 85th anniversary replay of Babe Ruth's called shot, with Judge in the role of the Bambino.
It would have sounded plausible as long as you assumed we lost all three times. That we'd have a World Series victory in there would not have sounded plausible.
Anyway, I remember Rob Neyer's old book Baseball Dynasties and if the Cubs win it all this year would they have made a chapter in that book? In this day and age?
Quintana has to pitch one of the 2 weekend games, and will still get a second start. If he pitches game 1 then he's available for game 5 which is probably the best.
The question is the other weekend pitcher. Lackey, or Arrieta on short rest? Arrieta didn't throw a lot of innings on Wednesday, but I think was over 90 pitches.
I would think Lester ahead of Arrieta. He threw 55 pitches on Wed. Plus, that would guarantee our 2 lefties 4 total statrs should it come to that.
Unfortunately, this iteration of the Dodgers doesn't have nearly the same problem with lefties that last year's iteration did
As for the bullpen, the only guy who pitched excessively in Game 5 was Davis - which is, in fact, precisely WHY Davis pitched excessively, because nobody else threw more than an inning.
There's no chance Justin Wilson makes the NLCS roster, right? Because if Joe didn't trust him in Game 5 - when he needed to get 5 innings out of his bullpen and went to a lefty mid-inning three times - he's wasting a roster spot. To be clear, I think Joe was right not to trust him (I actually think Joe managed that series pretty well overall, including Game 5), but if he wasn't going to appear in that game, then he's not serving any purpose. If his role was to potentially eat some innings in a 10-1 blowout (either way), then (a) isn't that what Lackey is around for, and (b) wouldn't a guy like Rob Zastryzny, who started much of the year, be better in that role anyway?
I'd probably try to give Edwards the weekend off, rest his arm, collect his thoughts, and maybe ease him back in Chicago. Bring Rondon on the roster (in place of Wilson) and have him slide into the righty setup role with Strop.
Ideally, 7 innings out of Quintana on Saturday and at least 6 out of Lester on Sunday would be great. And hopefully, playoff Clayton Kershaw and the Cubs' bats show up and we can give the bullpen some decent-sized leads to protect.
Not that it works. I just tried changing Kiko's last comment from "Quintana on Saturday and....Lester on Sunday" to "Three-Fingered Brown on Saturday and....Fergie on Sunday", but alas, no luck.
EDIT: And now those other "Edit" tools are gone. Damn, that idea had real possibilities.
Just saw your note above and I sent you an email. Never saw anything from you in my inbox.
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