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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Wednesday, October 26, 2016Game 1 FeelingsThere’s plenty of analysis and overanalysis out there for everyone to find. Rather than writing a long post in one of the threads, I figured I’d just throw all my thoughts up here and see what sticks. Things I liked, enjoyed, or that gave me hope
Overall, it’s still amazing to be here. I still think the Cubs will win, nothing last night changed how I feel about the series. If anything, I’m *more* hopeful now because of how Schwarber looked. Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: October 26, 2016 at 10:17 AM | 62 comment(s)
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1. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 26, 2016 at 10:32 AM (#5334613)Because I'd far rather see Contreras catch and if we're going to sit Heyward again, let Soler have the PAs too.
I really don't want to see Soler in the OF, and he barely has any ABs lately. Plus, it's probably just too cold for him.
It's probably meaningless, but I feel like nearly 50 pitches out of your hands down best reliever and a wasted sneak peak at the closer in a 6 run game is the sort of thing you'd find on the losing side of a 6-0 game, not the winning side.
I'm sticking with Cubs in 5.
I am glad to see Schwarber looking good at the plate, but I am also unnerved by how achy-breaky he looks running.
I'm less bothered by Montero being Arrieta's caddy here; I'd like to see Contreras in the lineup somewhere, but it doesn't have to be behind the plate. As Moses mentioned, Contreras can start in LF. I am okay with Montero catching tonight because whatever might make Arrieta feel good is fine with me, and also because I think the ballpark suits Montero's exaggerated pull swing. Coghlan is available to sub for Contreras late.
Meh, he always looks that way...
He kind of looked like he was running in a sausage race, except he wasn't wearing a sausage costume.
Ross hits fine against lefties, and is good defensively, so he's not just a blanket. Montero this year is just a blanket; he hit a little better down the stretch, but I'm still not comfortable with him hitting, and he couldn't throw out Schwarber trying to steal. He's a very expensive blanket. I'm sure both guys are helping Contreras learn to be a catcher, but at some point, Arrieta and Lester are going to have to learn to throw to Contreras.
True enough - .235/.339/.373 in 118PAs; even better if you just look at Sept (51PAs): .283/.353/.543. It's just he's still inferior to Contreras - offensively and defensively - and he's so slow, that it hurts seeing him out there more than it should. Without Contreras around, the Cubs would still have a decent catcher platoon situation, it's just not as good as Contreras.
He's clearly able to gameplan well with Hendricks - who has lesser stuff than Jake, in a vacuum. He's great defensively, and statcast already says he's a net plus with pitch framing (not a Grandal or Montero -- yet, but we're talking about a rookie who has a grand total of 267 GS at catcher at all levels in his pro career).
Fine, fine -- everybody gets to keep their personal catcher for the remaining games this year... but come spring next year, EVERYBODY better be prepared to have WillCon catching.
I don't remember anyone before him, at least in my time as a baseball fan. I don't like it, other than in special circumstances. I can see it in the case of a knuckleballer, who is tough to catch, or pairing your best throwing catcher if your starter steadfastly refuses to make pickoff throws.
Agreed.
As I noted in the chatter -- Ross has 10.1 WAR and even 1.9 WAA over his entire 15 (technically 14, since his first year was just a cup of coffee) career. For a backup catcher - something every team is going to continue to carry? Nobody turns their nose up at that*.
*well, except all of us when he signed :-)
Steve Carlton and Tim McCarver in the 70's.
I'd be more okay with it if Arrieta was pitching well with Montero catching, but his two postseason starts so far have been meh. So, to the extent Montero makes Jake feel better, it's not clear to me that "better feeling Jake" is actually "better pitching Jake". The Indians are also a big baserunning team and, for all the talk about how easy Lester is to run against, he (or, perhaps, more accurately, Ross) is actually not; the Cubs' battery that's easiest to run against is Arrieta-Montero. I hope to see Contreras behind the plate tonight.
That said, I agree w/ the general optimism here. For a 6-0 loss, that one didn't feel terrible. The Cubs survived Bumgarner and Cueto; they survived Kershaw and Hill and Jansen. They can survive Kluber and Miller. Seeing a vintage second-half of 2015 start from Arrieta tonight would go a long way toward doing that.
I have a vague recollection from my childhood as an Orioles fan that Weaver did this one or two years. I want to say Dave Skaggs caught Dennis Martinez. If you have two catchers who don't form an obvious platoon (e.g., two right-handed hitters) and you want to split the time 3/4 or 4/5 to one of them, matching up the backup catcher with one specific starting pitcher makes some sense. And if your backup catcher is an offensive zero, it makes sense to put him in the lineup with your best starting pitcher, who ideally needs less offensive support (or, in theory, perhaps your best hitting pitcher) (note: Dennis Martinez was not the Orioles' best starting pitcher; that would have been Jim Palmer, who was a prima donna who almost certainly would have objected to being stuck with the backup catcher).
So, I've always thought that the theory was reasonably sound. The problem here is that it never made as much sense with Montero and Ross, where the obvious way to split playing time was to platoon them.
Yup, really this. If the Monty caddy had produced good Jake starts, I'd be more OK with it... but they really didn't. He was -OK- in the NLDS, maybe some better bullpen work makes that one better, but hardly vintage 2015 Jake and the NLCS start was actually pretty shitty.
I'm fine with it if there's an obvious gain. But unless the pitcher has some particular tic (like a Wakefield or a Lester), then you're establishing something that, down the road, may be counterproductive. For instance, that RHB/RHB catching combination you have now becomes a LHB/RHB pair, and your starting pitcher doesn't want to let go of a security blanket that may, as may be the case with Arrieta, be delivering no obvious benefits).
It's the same reason I wouldn't allow a long games played streak take place under my watch. I wouldn't want players having any real say on deployment.
I see a couple of potential methodological and analytical issues with this study.
Oh, yeah, I wouldn't be messing with it now.
Yes. In the start immediately after that one, Jake pitched to Miguel and allowed 4 runs in 4 innings before Contreras came in to catch the 5th (and Arrieta promptly gave up 3 more runs). If we want to play with small sample sizes, Arrieta pitched considerably better with Ross catching him (1.32 ERA, .449 OPS) than either Montero (3.02, .590) or Contreras (5.18, .689).
The Cardinals game - yes...
But among the "postmodern Jake" (i.e., after July began and he stopped being Jake the Conqueror), one of his three gems was with Contreras behind the plate... Granted, it was against the Padres, but still -- this one.
As for tonight is Montero vs. a RHP a meaingfully lesser option than Contreras against an RHP?
Offensively, I'd still prefer Contreras without the platoon advantage, but (a) not by a lot, and (b) Contreras in LF, Zobrist in RF is another option for the Cubs to get Contreras' bat in the lineup. The bigger issue is that Montero threw out 11% of would-be basestealers against him and basestealers stole 23 of 26 against Arrieta on the year. Contreras threw out 37%.
Offensively, it's close to a wash if you just used a standard R/L split; Montero's overall vs RHB splits this year are fine (.727OPS; .787 career), but he had such a up and down year, I don't have a lot of confidence in him. Contreras doesn't have a split so far in his limited career; .841OPS vs RHP, .854OPS vs LHP. But by far, the biggest difference is on defense, so that by itself should be enough to push it to Contreras.
So no Contreras.
I think it is -- maybe not yuge, as others have noted, Montero returned to perfectly cromulent as the season wore on -- but thus far in the postseason, Contreras is 4 for 10 with a BB against RHP and 5 for 12 against LHP.
Not to take anything away from Baez -- but Contreras' total postseason slash of 409/435/591 is tops amongst all Cub hitters (well, except for Travis Wood's 1.000/1.000/4.000). Only Wood and Schwarber have higher OBP and only Wood, Arrieta, and Schwarber have a higher SLG.
Is Maddon trying to keep the team loose by reserving one of the starting lineup spots for the guy who tells the best joke in the clubhouse before the game or something?
So, Kyle Schwarber leads Cubs' position players in OBP and SLG after not playing baseball for five months. Small sample size be damned. That's impressive!
Whatever. It's a nit, I guess. Soler over Contreras won't decide this game.
I'm not as convinced as many of you that Montero's going to be catching.
Oh, he does. He'll be wearing that full face mask/hat combo for sure.
Ok.
Re: #43, told you so!
EDIT: Coke to Moses. But still, re: #43, I told you so!
Ok. Well, I mean, for Soler, that lines up with what we've seen.
"No, Jorge, you can't take a space heater with you onto the field."
I approve.
Unless REALLY bad Jake shows up, in which case, somebody hacked my account.
I'm happier about Contreras catching than I am about Heyward's auto-out on the bench.
Posted this in the game chatter too. Might even give it it's own embedded post.
Friday SROs now down to a bargain $1400, Saturdays down to $1800... Sunday still over $2000.
These aren't direct quotes, but I'm assuming this is coming from Maddon talking. Definitely glad to hear about Contreras starting most of the series, which I guess we could have assumed based on today's start.
Yep:
I would hope not. As frustrated as I'm sure he is, he's got to understand that he's had all the time in the world to turn in around and just hasn't been able to. Can't keep running him out there when this much is on the line.
And no, you can't play Schwarber in left field. There are four options:
- Heyward
- Soler
- Coghlan
- Almora
It's an interesting choice.
Small nitpick: Soler was playing RF. Heyward didn't show much in his two at-bats (yes, he made a loud out, but it was a 2-0 cookie from the Indians' mop-up man).
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