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Saturday, October 29, 2016

Game 3 Feelings

Well, not a lot that can be sugar coated after that one. It really is amazing that was a 1-0 game, regardless of the winner, considering the weather. The fact that neither team came anywhere near close to hitting a home run is absolutely unbelievable. Anyhow..

Things I liked, enjoyed, or that gave me hope
1. Only giving up 1 run in this weather is a good thing, I guess.
2. I really don’t have any complaints with how any of the Cubs pitchers pitched. It would have been nice for Hendricks to be a littler sharper and last longer, but it really doesn’t feel like he was hit hard or anything.
3. ....
4. Bill Murrays 7th innning stretch was entertaining, I guess?
5, Chapman is throwing his slider again, and getting it across. That’s a positive.

Things I didn’t like, didn’t enjoy, or that worried me
1. Another ####### shutout? Of this team? In this weather? Are you ####### kidding me? I know Tomlin was pitched well lately, but is really this good? Come on.
2. Fowler is still absolutely lost at the plate. When he goes, they go. He hasn’t gone yet this postseason.
3. 7 LOB. That’s actually a pretty low number (13 in game 2, 9 in game 1), but was there really any time the Cubs were seriously threatening? Soler’s “triple” with 2 outs? And btw, #### anyone who thinks to criticize him for not running. No way he gets anywhere near home if he’s running out of the box.
4. The pitching was so set up for the Cubs to capitalize. Tomlin with the wind blowing out; getting Miller out so early because of the batting order. Shaw throwing so many pitches. If they can’t win this one, why should we assume it’ll be better against Kluber, even on short rest?
5. Lackey pitching with the Cubs down 2-1. Ugh. He could lose, and the Cubs could come back from 3-1, but it still doesn’t make me happy to see him pitching tomorrow.

Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 29, 2016 at 12:01 AM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 29, 2016 at 12:10 AM (#5337555)

I may come across as pessimistic there, but this was a game on paper the Cubs shouldn't have lost. They did, but it's not the end.

2. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 29, 2016 at 12:13 AM (#5337556)

I did predict Cubs in 6, so I'm not "panicking" yet. I think.

3. Spahn Insane Posted: October 29, 2016 at 12:17 AM (#5337558)

Well, they can't clinch at home. But I still feel pretty good considering. But yeah....how TF do you get shut out on a night like this?

4. Spahn Insane Posted: October 29, 2016 at 12:18 AM (#5337559)

I'll go ahead and say the Cubs win it in 6, because (1) they can't win it in 5, and (2) why not.

5. Spahn Insane Posted: October 29, 2016 at 12:19 AM (#5337561)

Also, I think at the moment I'm more optimistic than Moses. What do I win?

6. Kiko Sakata

Posted: October 29, 2016 at 12:34 AM (#5337566)

The Cubs were down 2-1 to the Dodgers having lost games by scores of 6-0 and 1-0. The Cubs are down 2-1 to the Indians having lost games by scores of 6-0 and 1-0. So, (a) it's obviously possible for the Cubs to come back and win this, but (b) man, you don't want to count on pulling that out too many times.

I said in some thread that I thought the key for the Cubs is not to fall too far behind, because with the Indians only having three starters and relying very heavily on their bullpen, I think the matchups become much more favorable to the Cubs as the series goes on. But they're not leaving themselves very much wiggle room and the Cubs probably have their least favorable matchup in the next game in Lackey vs. Kluber. And if they lose that one, then they literally have no room for error.

All of that said, if the Cubs win Game 4, I think they win the series, probably in 6. And since I'm going to be at Game 4 and given what I paid to be there, they damn well better win Game 4!

7. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 29, 2016 at 12:37 AM (#5337567)

Feeling deflated but sick of seeing bullshit elsewhere about it all being over and curse talk. ####.

8. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 29, 2016 at 10:55 AM (#5337602)

Its not that I've lost my optimism. I was angry, probably first time these playoffs. I could rationalize the other losses, even the shutouts. Last night was the first time it really felt like the Cubs were beating themselves, even if that isn't true. Tomlin's stuff looked hittable, but the Cubs barely hit the ball hard. On paper, it was the biggest matchup advantage the Cubs have had all postseason. Which means nothing, but a fan looking for silver linings has to look a lot harder. Counting on lackey now doesn't make it easier, even if I think the Cubs still win if they lose tonight.

9. Meatwad Posted: October 29, 2016 at 12:38 PM (#5337666)

I think Heyward catches the ball they scored on, but unsure if he would have gotten the guy at the plate. Still think the cubs win since every starter for cleveland is on short rest from here on out.

10. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 29, 2016 at 12:43 PM (#5337669)

11. Sweet Posted: October 29, 2016 at 12:54 PM (#5337675)

I'm at LaGuardia heading to Chicago now. Wish Cubs were up and not down but I'm still pretty gosh darn excited.

Would say 15% of folks boarding the plane are wearing Cubs gear.

Am planning to buy tickets at the lastest possible moment but may end up watching at a bar either tonight or tomorrow. Anyone have any recommendations for someplace non-douchey and non-extortionate? Good beer selection a plus.

12. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 29, 2016 at 01:04 PM (#5337676)

Meat: unlikely anyone catches that.

@mike_petriello: Soler would have had to run 62 feet in 3.4 sec to prevent Crisp hit. Even B.Hamilton would have a hard time w that: http://m.indians.mlb.com/news/article/207495532/statcast-proves-soler-couldnt-catch-crisp-hit/

13. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 29, 2016 at 01:05 PM (#5337678)

Several of us pre- and post-gamed at Bar on Buena for LCS Game 6. Not douchy at all and a very good beer selection, within an easy walk of Wrigley. They were significantly understaffed after the game though. JP Burke's on Lincoln is also a good option a little further away from the park. Good food, excellent curated beer selection (owner takes pride in it) and a heated outdoor patio.

14. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: October 29, 2016 at 01:12 PM (#5337681)

unlikely anyone catches that.

I do wonder if Heyward could have made it a close enough play to keep Martinez on third. Not that it matters. The wild pitch is the real regret in that sequence.

I posted this on the Game 3 Omnichatter, but it looks like that thread is probably dead, so: How does the package that the Indians gave up for Miller compare to Torres et al for Chapman? Is it that much better?

If the Cubs added Happ or Cease it would have been getting pretty close. OTOH, the Yankees may have kept holding out for Schwarber so who knows whether that hypothetical trade might have ever been an option.

15. Meatwad Posted: October 29, 2016 at 01:13 PM (#5337682)

fair enough moses, i expected that he would have to dive for it, which is why i was unsure if he would get the runner at home. as it is solers throw to third was great to get the out.

16. Sweet Posted: October 29, 2016 at 01:27 PM (#5337688)

Thanks Elroy. Much appreciated. If there is a BBTF meetup over the weekend and y'all don't mind one more, pls post details. Don’t know if I can join but I can try.

17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 29, 2016 at 02:48 PM (#5337709)

I posted this on the Game 3 Omnichatter, but it looks like that thread is probably dead, so: How does the package that the Indians gave up for Miller compare to Torres et al for Chapman? Is it that much better?

Torres and Frazier are close in value: both B+ from Sickels, #16 and #26 respectively in his end-of-season top-100. The Indians also parted with Sheffield, another B+ prospect who Sickels has at #63. So, the Indians gave up quite a bit more.

Of course, Cleveland controls Miller for 2 more years, so net-net, I think Cleveland got the better deal. But they paid heavily.

18. Dan Posted: October 29, 2016 at 02:51 PM (#5337711)

Of course, Cleveland controls Miller for 2 more years, so net-net, I think Cleveland got the better deal. But they paid heavily.

19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 29, 2016 at 03:57 PM (#5337742)

This was my impression at the time and it still seems accurate.

But I also think the Cubs were probably never going to get Miller without giving up Schwarber, so I don't think they had an option for a better deal for Miller.

I think hey should have just given up Schwarber. If they had simply replaced Torres with Schwarber in the deal it would have the equivalent of trading Schwarber for Torres plus 2 years of Andrew Miller. I think that's a good trade on pure value.

Add to that, the Cubs can't really deploy Schwarber optimally given their current team makeup (Rizzo blocking 1B for the next 5 years), I think they should have pulled the trigger.

As a Yankee fan, I'm happy they didn't. I'd rather have Torres, Frazier, and Sheffield than Schhhwarber and whatever they would have gotten for Chapman from another team. To me, Schwarber's skill set (slugger with negative defensive value) is the easiest for the Yankees to acquire using money alone.

20. The Honorable Ardo Posted: October 29, 2016 at 04:35 PM (#5337751)

It's frustrating to get shut out, but this team was just down 2-1 - on the road at that - and won the next three.

My dad made the good point last night that neither Bryant nor Rizzo are contributing at the plate. Cubs fans need to see Bryzzo again! The key chances to score last night involved Heyward, Baez, and Contreras, not the middle of the order.

21. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 29, 2016 at 04:56 PM (#5337757)

I know Tomlin was pitched well lately, but is really this good? Come on.

Josh Tomlin gave up at least one run in EVERY SINGLE START in 2016, both regular season and postseason, until last night. In Wrigley, with the wind blowing out and Carlos Santana in left field. If they end up losing the Series, this game is probably the biggest reason why.

22. Dag Nabbit: Sockless Psychopath Posted: October 29, 2016 at 06:11 PM (#5337788)

5. Lackey pitching with the Cubs down 2-1. Ugh. He could lose, and the Cubs could come back from 3-1, but it still doesn’t make me happy to see him pitching tomorrow.

Lackey doesn't bother me. He's been bad (but not terrible) in his two postseason starts. .... but he also had a pretty good season. Sample size edge? Goes to the regular season. He was actually at his best down the stretch, with an ERA of 2.34 (IIRC) in his final nine starts.

That said, I've been wrong on every game so far. I liked the Cubs with Lester in Game 1. I didn't trust Arrieta after his last 3+ months. I really thought that they would win last night.

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Game 3 Feelings

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