BBTF's Gonfalon Cubs Discussion

Gonfalon Cubs
— Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans

Sunday, October 30, 2016

Game 5 Feelings

Whew.

Seriously. Whew. Holy ####, not sure I’ll be able to fall asleep anytime soon. So, to try and organize some half thought-through thoughts.

Good:
1. Chapman. This was a tough situation for him; he’s been bad all year with inherited runners and even worse in the playoffs. Longest outing in his pro career, almost most pitches thrown. He made it tougher on himself not covering first (though, not sure they get the out), but still came through.
2. Lester. I’ll get to the decision to pull him in a minute, but he was very, very good. The HR to Ramirez was a good pitch, and he got beat. Otherwise, there was minimal hard contact. He’s been very good these playoffs.
3. That one crooked number inning. They could have had more, and I’d feel a lot better about the next couple of games had they been able to keep scoring, but hopefully it’s just the start. Bryant feels like a guy whose homers come in bunches, let’s hope that’s the case. Rizzo looked good, Russell looked good again, ####, Heyward is right on top of the ball (he clearly starts rest of the series no matter what, IMO).
4. Maddon. I think, and not just because it “worked” - and I have the texts to prove it - pulling Lester there was fine. It was about to be the 3rd time through the order for the heart of their lineup, with Santana and Ramirez (the guys who made solid contact) coming up, plus Napoli getting his kinda 4th look. It was aggressive, and in an elimination game, I think you have to be aggressive. However…

Bad:
1. Maddon. I don’t see how Montero with 2 outs is significantly better than Ross in that spot. I think it’s crazy Schwarber didn’t get a PH chance the last couple of games. I understand putting Contreras in for defense (and FWIW, as much as the SP don’t seem to prefer Willson, the relievers all seem to, or at least Joe manages like they do). I’m not sure the exact sequence makes a ton of sense, but it worked. I’m not sure exactly why Edwards is clearly ahead of Strop (Strop hasn’t pitched much; maybe there’s something about his pitches that the Indians make for a good matchup, I dunno), but I like the confidence in CJ’s stuff.
2. Baez. He looks like 2014 Baez. This is not the time for him to sit - his defense is too important, but his ABs are just praying for a mistake. His patience and pickiness have gone right out the window. Any strike he sees the rest of the series is a mistake by the Indians pitcher.

Now, can the Cubs actually hit Tomlin? Sure feels like they should be able to, he’s a Hendricks-esque pitcher that doesn’t quite have Kyle’s command. He’s obviously figured something out recently, but these last 6 weeks or so for him really seem out of character. The Cubs should be able to run out a a really strong lineup (even with Heyward in it; hell, hit Javy 9th), and I think Jake has another masterpiece in him. Then, well, anything can happen.

Go Cubs.

Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 30, 2016 at 11:58 PM | 53 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

1. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 31, 2016 at 12:11 AM (#5339031)

I co-sign that this felt like two games, but unfortunately, Moses, it only counts as Game 5.

2. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 31, 2016 at 12:11 AM (#5339032)

Damn ninja edit!

3. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 31, 2016 at 12:13 AM (#5339033)

I've been quite critical of Heyward all year, so I want to take a moment to sing his praises for tonight. Between the two stolen bases and the Spider-Man catch, it's clear that he's desperate to do anything to positively contribute.

4. Meatwad Posted: October 31, 2016 at 12:13 AM (#5339034)

Sadly I wasnt able to watch any of it but I do like the outcome! Lets hope we get good jake on tuesday.

5. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 31, 2016 at 12:14 AM (#5339035)

You a liar, and you lie, and sir, that's libel.

6. Jeff Francoeur's OPS Posted: October 31, 2016 at 12:18 AM (#5339037)

Go Indians.

I guess if you win, you forget Heyward's atrocious 3 K's.

|_(ツ)_/¯

7. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 31, 2016 at 12:18 AM (#5339038)

I'm actually kind of happy to see it go back to Cleveland, and for more than just the obvious reason. Schwarber back in the lineup picks up some of the slack for the bottom of the order's lack of productivity. It's a shame to see Javy seemingly get overwhelmed by the moment and slide back into his 2014 form, but it hurts a bit less with the DH slot in there.

8. Dag Nabbit: Sockless Psychopath Posted: October 31, 2016 at 12:23 AM (#5339039)

Defense overall was good - Byrant on the liner to third, Heyward with catch at the wall, and the Ross-Rizzo pop up (which, really wasn't a good play by Ross - but it sure was entertaining).

Was I the only one who wanted Maddon to pinch-hit Schwarber for Baez in the big inning? Then just move Zobrist to second & put Soler in left? But then Baez got the hit, so what the hell.

9. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 31, 2016 at 12:28 AM (#5339041)

Was I the only one who wanted Maddon to pinch-hit Schwarber for Baez in the big inning? Then just move Zobrist to second & put Soler in left? But then Baez got the hit, so what the hell.

I still think Javy's glove is too good to take out of the game. I mean, we saw one of those glorious Javy tags not very long after that inning.

10. Brian C Posted: October 31, 2016 at 12:52 AM (#5339045)

Was I the only one who wanted Maddon to pinch-hit Schwarber for Baez in the big inning? Then just move Zobrist to second & put Soler in left? But then Baez got the hit, so what the hell.

Yes, I think you were the only one.

I think the idea of "WE NEED TO GET THIS RUN IN RIGHT NOW AND DAMN THE CONSEQUENCES" really is a loser more often than not, especially in the earlier innings. The difference between Schwarber and Baez for one plate appearance is just not great enough to paper over making yourself drastically weaker defensively for the rest of the game. It's just too early in the game to play desperate.

11. Brian C Posted: October 31, 2016 at 01:00 AM (#5339046)

I mean, we saw one of those glorious Javy tags not very long after that inning.

That might have been the most glorious of the glorious Javy tags. He did so many things on that play:

1) He realized that the play was going to be close, so he moved up to compensate, and while doing that
2) He tracked the ball to the first base side of the bag, and in the meantime,
3) He tracked the runner and apparently calculated the intersection of the ball's path and the runner's path, and then
4) Caught the ball and made the tag behind him.

It was an amazing feat of both tremendous physical skill and flawless instincts. It wasn't just the tag, it was also being in position to make that tag in the first place. Smoltz was right - pretty much any other player would have waited at the base and shrugged it off when the throw was late.

Baez made that out happen. Even by his standards, it stood out.

12. Kiko Sakata

Posted: October 31, 2016 at 01:12 AM (#5339048)

Great game! I'm not 100% sold on a few of Maddon's calls - I'd have tried to pitch Lester one more inning and Chapman one fewer inning and you absolutely have to let Schwarber try to drive Heyward in from second. But his calls all worked, so kudos to him.

I was surprised that Schwarber only ended up getting 1 AB in the three games at Wrigley and was especially disappointed that Game 4 ended with Schwarber in the on-deck circle (not because he was the difference in the 7-2 loss, but because I was at the game and wanted to see a Schwar-bomb in person).

I feel really good about the remaining pitching matchups. I loved what we saw from Arrieta in Game 2, although I'd like to see a few more innings (i.e., lower pitch count) next time. And, honestly, is there anybody in the world you have more confidence won't get rattled in a Game 7 on the road trying to end a 108-year losing streak than Kyle Hendricks? The guy just exudes non-chalance. And if the Indians match their runs scored in Kyle's last start and the Cubs match their runs scored in Kluber's last start, the Cubs would win Game 7, 2-1. I have a good feeling about the bats. I think they're going to do it!

13. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 31, 2016 at 10:15 AM (#5339113)

I guess if you win, you forget Heyward's atrocious 3 K's.

Who is forgetting that? Heyward has been AWFUL all season. The Ks or weak grounders to 2nd or weak popups to short center are the expectation. When he does ANYTHING other than that, it's a good day for him. In that one AB, he had more hard hit balls than in the past month (2 fouls and the single all exit velocity >100mph). He rarely gets on base, but when he does, he can flash the good baserunning skills. His defense is always solid, but there just hasn't been many opportunities in RF these playoffs.

14. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 31, 2016 at 10:17 AM (#5339116)

I haven't seen an exact quote, but I've seen a number of places refer to Lester asking out, or at least hinting to Maddon he was about done. If that's the case, then yeah, pulling him isn't questionable.

The more I think about it, the more I understand why he let Chapman hit. I think once a few of those moves had been made, that was a locked in certainty. I'm not sure who I'd rather have pitching against Napoli/Santana/Ramirez in the 9th. You want Santana to hit RH, and I think you'd prefer Ramirez RH as well. Montgomery has worked pretty hard lately, and Wood hasn't been sharp. Maybe Chapman really is your absolute best option.

15. Dag Nabbit: Sockless Psychopath Posted: October 31, 2016 at 10:29 AM (#5339123)

Great game! I'm not 100% sold on a few of Maddon's calls - I'd have tried to pitch Lester one more inning

I heard on the radio that Lester told Maddon he was really grinding in his last couple of innings. Looking it up, Lester apparently threw 40 pitches in his last two innings (19 in the 5th and 21 in the 6th by my count) after just 50 pitches in the first four frames.

16. Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun) Posted: October 31, 2016 at 10:41 AM (#5339131)

I heard on the radio that Lester told Maddon he was really grinding in his last couple of innings.

In his interview in the postgame show, Lester basically used that exact language. He all but said that he'd asked Maddon to consider pulling him.

17. Zonk isn't banned, he's under review Posted: October 31, 2016 at 10:42 AM (#5339133)

Lester needs to save something for a spotless inning of relief in the 7th game.

18. Kiko Sakata

Posted: October 31, 2016 at 10:47 AM (#5339138)

I read the same thing about/from Lester and absolutely, in that case, pulling him was the right call. I still might have tried to get one extra inning out of somebody other than Chapman, but certainly understand not wanting your season to end with anything less than your best on the mound.

19. Man o' Schwar Posted: October 31, 2016 at 11:03 AM (#5339147)

Maybe it's easier when your team makes the World Series a lot, but these games are killing me. I feel I need this off-day as much as the players do.

20. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 31, 2016 at 11:06 AM (#5339149)

Maybe Chapman really is your absolute best option.

Well, just about anyone with a two-run lead is a better option than anyone else with a one-run lead. So the question was, assuming Chapman was a superior option to anyone else with one run, is the gap between him and the next best option larger or smaller than the chance of a pinch hitter driving in the run?

21. Brian C Posted: October 31, 2016 at 11:29 AM (#5339165)

The more I think about it, the more I understand why he let Chapman hit.

It's a truism around BBTF that there are good decisions that turn out poorly, but that they're still good decisions even if they do. And obviously I believe that. And I also believe that a stupid decision that turns out OK is still stupid.

But there's a third category - decisions that are neither good nor bad on their own. They could go either way, and therefore they're defined by their results. And I think that's the category that the Chapman decision falls into. I said at the time in the Omnichatter that it was either stupid or "legendary" to let him hit, which was a play on an earlier discussion in the thread about whether Eddie Vedder is in fact "legendary" or not ... but anyway, I meant it. If Chapman couldn't get you three outs, it was a stupid decision. If he could, it was a good decision.

And no one could tell you in advance which was more likely or what course of action really gave you a better chance. It pretty much came down to Maddon using his best judgment and getting it right. And he did.

22. and Posted: October 31, 2016 at 11:55 AM (#5339190)

I asked in the dying chatter: does anyone know if Chapman can bunt? I'd think a bunt was his best chance to get the run in once Heyward is on third. I'm not saying it would be a great strategy but better than flailing.

And I agree with Brian: that is a decision with no clear right or wrong. I'm fine with leaving Chapman in the game. You have the lead so you just have to get three outs. Whatever maximizes your odds of getting three outs without giving up a run is what you do. PHing doesn't automatically score a run but it does reduce the number of effective pitchers you have left.

23. Brian C Posted: October 31, 2016 at 11:59 AM (#5339200)

Chapman came up with two outs. I'm not sure bunting is ideal in that situation. At any rate, I'd rather have him flail than have to sprint to try to beat a throw to first.

24. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 31, 2016 at 12:11 PM (#5339210)

I was confident they told Chapman not to swing. Apparently they gave him the green light with two strikes. I'm fine with a whiff or a very unlikely walk there.

25. An Athletic in Powderhorn, Silly Posted: October 31, 2016 at 12:13 PM (#5339212)

While I'm glad it worked I hated letting him hit at the time and still lean towards dislike. Something I haven't seen brought up yet is that the decision is not Chapman or Rondon. It's pitches 31-45 or so of Chapman or Rondon. It's reasonable to expect diminished effectiveness in his third inning of work.

EDIT: I see Retro said in the Chatter that it probably wouldn't have been Rondon. I didn't know that. Was he tired? He did throw 19 pitches on Saturday.

26. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 31, 2016 at 12:22 PM (#5339218)

Were Rondon anywhere near 100%, it's a no-brainer to send out Rondon and PH for Chapman. Since he came back on 8/14, he's thrown 8.2inn in 12 appearances, given up 17hits, 3bb, 7Ks, 4!HRs for a 12.46 ERA; batters are hitting .415/.467/.805. Small sample, sure, but he was hurt and hasn't been the same. He's been a little better in the playoffs, 11IP, 13h, 2bb, 9k, 2HR; but he just pitched 2 innings the day before. I don't think Rondon is an option there.

It's Strop (fresh, but high risk, probably the next best option), Montgomery (pitched day before and not well, pitched most), or Wood (been used mostly as a LOOGY lately, pitched day before). I think those are in order of my preference, and considering who was coming up, I think I prefer Chapman, even after the number of pitches, ahead of all of them, with the season on the line.

27. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 31, 2016 at 12:27 PM (#5339221)

Well sure, if you take it as a given that they aren't going to score the fourth run, then sticking with Chapman is the best option.

28. Zonk isn't banned, he's under review Posted: October 31, 2016 at 12:32 PM (#5339228)

Once Maddon went to Chapman, it was going to be Chapman's game to save or lose period.

If it were me, I'd have mixed and matched the 7th (Wood/Strop)... but whatever. At this point, a win is a win no matter how it is cobbled together. Now, they need to cobble together two more.

29. An Athletic in Powderhorn, Silly Posted: October 31, 2016 at 01:03 PM (#5339248)

Thanks, Moses. Knowing that Rondon is probably not 100% healthy makes that decision defensible.

30. Randomly Fluctuating Defensive Metric Posted: October 31, 2016 at 01:10 PM (#5339255)

Many thanks to the Cubs for keeping baseball season going... On game six: I've been waiting for a lineup to appreciably ding Tomlin the entire postseason. He's most definitely a qualified Major League starter, but his stuff requires near perfection from a command standpoint for him to pitch clean innings. It has been fascinating watching Francona manage his outings. The term pre-emptive comes to mind. Tomlin always reminds me that plate discipline can be subtle... Tomlin is basically never going to allow walks to beat him, but the key to producing against this kind of pitcher is abstaining from borderline strikes that will either be fouled or put into play softly... It's not so much about walking as turning a 1-1 count into 2-1 instead of 1-2... if the Cubs can get into enough favorable counts Tuesday night, game seven will probably be played...

31. Weeks T. Olive Posted: October 31, 2016 at 01:11 PM (#5339256)

At this point, a win is a win no matter how it is cobbled together. Now, they need to cobble together two more.

Nothing will need to be cobbled together tomorrow. Jake is going to flat out dominate and I feel like the offense is getting ready to explode. Tomlin's not going to fool them a second time.

32. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 31, 2016 at 01:12 PM (#5339258)

Agree, zonk. The question probably should be was going to Chapman in the 7th the best move? He notoriously has struggled this year and playoffs coming in with runners on. It was 6/7/8 in the lineup, but Ramirez up with a runner on second. So, Chapman was the guy most likely to strike guys out, which was the preference to keep the runner on 2nd from scoring.

OTOH, that might be the highest leveraged AB of the game, and could have been the highest for the rest of the game. You want your best pitcher there.

33. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 31, 2016 at 01:14 PM (#5339260)

Lay off Tomlin's breaking pitches, and they can beat him.

A lineup of Fowler/Bryant/Rizzo/Zobrist/Schwarber/Contreras/Russell/Heyward/Baez (or whatever with the bottom 3) *should* do some damage to him. If they don't and the Cubs lose, it will not be for lack of opportunity.

34. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 31, 2016 at 01:38 PM (#5339270)

Agree, zonk. The question probably should be was going to Chapman in the 7th the best move? He notoriously has struggled this year and playoffs coming in with runners on. It was 6/7/8 in the lineup, but Ramirez up with a runner on second. So, Chapman was the guy most likely to strike guys out, which was the preference to keep the runner on 2nd from scoring.

Between his noted struggles and him taking an eternity to throw the damn ball, the 7th sure wound up feeling like THE inning, even if the 8th was also a bit too close for comfort.

35. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 31, 2016 at 01:59 PM (#5339287)

I booed when Contreras made his third mound visit FOR THE SAME G**DAMN BATTER. The people around me were mostly in agreement, with the exception of one woman who said "but it's a really important batter!"

36. Kiko Sakata

Posted: October 31, 2016 at 02:02 PM (#5339290)

I booed when Contreras made his third mound visit FOR THE SAME G**DAMN BATTER. The people around me were mostly in agreement, with the exception of one woman who said "but it's a really important batter!"

I can understand (but still hate) a mound visit for a guy with multiple options - Hendricks or Arrieta or even a Justin Grimm or Pedro Strop who have both good fastballs and good curveballs. But Aroldis Chapman's pitch repertoire in key situations should basically be "throw the ball as hard as you can, aiming at the glove".

37. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 31, 2016 at 02:04 PM (#5339292)

I can understand (but still hate) a mound visit for a guy with multiple options - Hendricks or Arrieta or even a Justin Grimm or Pedro Strop who have both good fastballs and good curveballs.

That's what signs are for. And pregame meetings.

38. and Posted: October 31, 2016 at 02:07 PM (#5339299)

Contreras makes me ready to count meetings between catcher and pitcher as mound visits. If anyone on the team visits the pitcher for a second time, you must change pitchers.

39. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 31, 2016 at 02:07 PM (#5339300)

40. Meatwad Posted: October 31, 2016 at 02:11 PM (#5339303)

It will be weird to see the cubs still playing baseball in november.

41. Zonk isn't banned, he's under review Posted: October 31, 2016 at 02:11 PM (#5339304)

Sometimes Contreras gets a little too "kid in a candy store" with the whole catching/field general stuff... I.e., when he gets in trouble, it's usually because he's trying to do too much (i.e., back picks when he might be better off holding a frame). I think mound visits are in the same category. He sort of gets into this "I must do something proactive here" mode rather than letting the action come to him and focusing on the reactive necessities. I think some of his PBs/WPs came in the same flavor - as if he's trying to get ready to make a throw or a back pick when he should be focused on pitch blocking.

I keep reminding folks, though -- he's only got about 250 games total catching in his lifetime. I think he'll ultimately be a plus-plus catcher, but he's still learning his way.

14 mil is a lot to pay a backup catcher, but I think Montero makes for a good mentor.

42. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 31, 2016 at 02:17 PM (#5339309)

Yeah, Contreras is just a tightly wound bundle of energy, and he probably just can't physically stay in the catchers box. As the game goes on, he gets wound tighter and tighter. He'll learn, but I'm with the one woman above, I'm not criticizing him today for it. I'll bag on him in ST/next year if it continues. It's also why I can see guys like Arrieta and Lackey prefer the calm, steadying influences of Ross and Montero over Contreras's toddler on speed act.

He did manage to get confused with Edwards on the PB, so I'd rather he make sure he knows than risk more of those.

43. Zonk isn't banned, he's under review Posted: October 31, 2016 at 02:17 PM (#5339311)

Has Baez actually gotten more patient, or just gotten better at making contact? This is a real question. Because just to look at his stat line, the only real difference between this year and 2014 is 100 points of BA, likely caused by a serious drop in his K rate. His walk rate is actually far worse than it was, and his ISO is nearly identical.

He's gotten more patient and has more of a plan at the plate... well, he's shown prior to the WS that he's gotten more patient and approaches his PAs with a plan. He's gone back to hack-o-matic in the WS, but the difference between current Baez (when he's going well or just not going badly) and previous Baez is that this one is still loathe to take a BB, but he's much more selective at picking out his pitch.

Both Baez's can feast on mistakes and that violent whiplash swing can catch up with just about anything - but 'old/bad' Baez doesn't take any sort of plan to the plate. New/better Baez will lay off pitches he can't drive.

He's never going to be a high OBP guy... and that's fine - he can be plenty valuable offensively if he hits 270/slugs 500 even if the OBP never gets far above 320. Even a 250/300/500 slash is fine so long as he keeps bringing the leather.

44. Kiko Sakata

Posted: October 31, 2016 at 02:18 PM (#5339312)

Contreras makes me ready to count meetings between catcher and pitcher as mound visits.

I think MLB should definitely do this. Either limit the number of catcher visits or count any time where the pitcher talks to anybody as part of the total. That said, I'm hopeful that Contreras will grow out of it at least a little bit.

Has Baez actually gotten more patient, or just gotten better at making contact?

In the first two rounds of the playoffs, when Baez was probably the Cubs' best hitter, I thought he was showing better patience: laying off close-ish pitches; he even walked twice in 41 PA (once apiece in the NLDS and NLCS). But in the World Series, he's gone back to his hacktastic ways (43% strikeout rate). He's never to going to have the plate discipline of Ben Zobrist, but I think he's improved somewhat, at least for stretches.

45. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 31, 2016 at 02:21 PM (#5339314)

Has Baez actually gotten more patient, or just gotten better at making contact? This is a real question. Because just to look at his stat line, the only real difference between this year and 2014 is 100 points of BA, likely caused by a serious drop in his K rate. His walk rate is actually far worse than it was, and his ISO is nearly identical.

I would have guessed his P/PA has gone up, but it hasn't: 4.08 in '14, 3.89 in '15, and 3.73 this year. Both his swinging and taking strikes have dropped considerably each season, so if nothing else, he isn't swinging and missing as much, which is a type of patience/evidence of getting more selective. His contact rate has really gone up (last 3 years 56.4%, 67.1%, and 71.1%). link

46. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 31, 2016 at 02:28 PM (#5339322)

The stats seem to show that Baez is just getting better at contact.

Baez's 3 year numbers, 2014-15-16:

Swinging at pitches out of the zone: 39.5%, 39.3, 42.9
Swinging at pitches in the zone: 58.7, 68.2, 67.9
Swinging, overall: 46.8, 51.5, 52.6
Contact, out of zone: 42.2, 48.6, 62.4
Contact, in zone: 77.5, 83.0, 82.3
Contact, overall: 59.0, 67.7, 72.4

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12979&position=2B/3B/SS

47. The Honorable Ardo Posted: October 31, 2016 at 04:53 PM (#5339406)

I'd sit Baez for Game 6 - part of the reason for his effectiveness in the regular season was that Joe didn't play him every day.

Zobrist at 2B, Soler in left, Montero catching:

Fowler
Bryant
Rizzo
Zobrist
Schwarber
Soler
Heyward
Russell
Montero

48. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 31, 2016 at 05:49 PM (#5339436)

Zobrist at 2B, Soler in left, Montero catching:

Fowler
Bryant
Rizzo
Zobrist
Schwarber
Soler
Heyward
Russell
Montero

Whoa, I don't agree with that at all. Even if Baez strikes out every at-bat the rest of the way, his glove is simply too valuable to lose.

Maybe I'd feel a little differently if the addition of Soler's bat meant improving the offense to any significant degree. But he's looked as bad as Baez and offers none of the defensive upside.

49. Dag Nabbit: Sockless Psychopath Posted: October 31, 2016 at 06:41 PM (#5339459)

I'd sit Baez for Game 6 - part of the reason for his effectiveness in the regular season was that Joe didn't play him every day.

But there are more days off in the postseason. He's played 15 games in the last 29 days. He's actually had more days off in October than any other month.

50. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: October 31, 2016 at 09:14 PM (#5339509)

And no reason to play Montero, especially with Jake. Joe actually already said Contreras is playing.

Soler hasn't done much either, so I'd take Baez defense over everything else.

51. Walt Davis Posted: November 01, 2016 at 02:54 AM (#5339590)

you absolutely have to let Schwarber try to drive Heyward in from second. But his calls all worked, so kudos to him.

Unless I was hallucinating, Miller was warmed up. Schwarber hasn't hit lefties in his small sample (BA of 143), it seems unlikely he'd be able to do anything with Miller. Does Joe burn him and counter with Soler? If so, how likely is Soler to do anything with Miller? Alternatively, stick with Allen, walk Schwarber if you're that scared of him and leave it to Contreras (better than Chapman obviously).

The main reason I was scared about Chapman batting wasn't so much that I wanted the extra run as much as it was that I suspected Chapman didn't have enough left to pitch the 9th anyway. Obviously PHing for him improves the chances of scoring but if I had the faith in Chapman that apparently Maddon had, I'd bat him there too.

Contreras's visits to the mound ... frustrating, overkill and yes, he's trying to do too much (has there been a runner he didn't try to pick off?) ... but it occurs to me that it gives Chapman extra rest which is probably not a bad thing given he doesn't usually throw that many pitches.

On Contreras, late game replacement and relievers ... I think it's mainly just that it's worked out. Either Contreras has made a good PH for Ross or it's happened to work out as a double-switch.

NLDS G1: entered after Coghlan PH for Ross in 8th inning of 1-0 game.

NLDS G3: This was unusual. Montero start as Arrieta's PC. Arrieta leaves after 6 and Contreras replaces Montero and isn't part of a double-switch.

NLDS G4: Coghlan PH for Russell, LHP enters, Contreras for Coghlan, takes over in LF with Ross staying at C. Almora, Fowler, Soler and now Coghlan all burned already, Cubs finish with an OF of WC -- JH -- JS and an IF with Baez at SS and Zobrist at 2B. (Game-tying hit, etc.)

NLCS G1: entered after Coghlan PH for Ross before Montero's GS.

NLCS G3: PH for Montero against LHP

NLCS G5: OK ... PH for Ross in the 8th with Cubs ahead 3-1, 1 on, 0 out, Lester had just pitched his last inning. Clearly not much harm in letting Ross bat there.

WS G1: PH for Coghlan (RF) against Miller; Ross also bats that inning then is replaced by Almora. Cubs behind 3-0 so you probably don't want Ross or Almora hitting again, Lester was already out of the game.

WS G5: Ross had made last out, double-switch when Chapman enters.

So NLCS G5 is arguable but the series was 2-2 so looking to add more runs there even if you lose some defense is certainly understandable. NLDS G3 is the game where he clearly went with Contreras over Montero with the Cubs ahead 3-2. Ross came on in the 13th to PH for Coghlan and took over at C with Contreras moving to LF.

However, given the way the Cubs pen has mostly pitched, I'm not sure we can claim any horse whispering skills for Contreras. 53 IP, 22 runs ain't nothing special. (not necessarily all with him behind the plate.)

52. Andere Richtingen

Posted: November 01, 2016 at 01:21 PM (#5339827)

By the way, thinking about how I feel: let's get a Game 7.

53. Zonk isn't banned, he's under review Posted: November 01, 2016 at 01:26 PM (#5339839)

Get to game 7... that's all that matters.

My heart says let's make it a 10-1 laugher... but my head says it sure would be swell to eke out a 5-4 squeaker that sucks 2+ innings a piece from Miller and Allen.

But no matter, just win baby... just win.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

<< Back to main

Sunday, October 30, 2016

Game 5 Feelings

Reader Comments and Retorts

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

Bookmarks

Hot Topics

Syndicate