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Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Is that good?

Can he move into 2nd by the end of the year?

Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: August 24, 2016 at 03:26 PM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: August 24, 2016 at 03:31 PM (#5289385)
Hey, it worked this time!
   2. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: August 24, 2016 at 03:37 PM (#5289388)
MLB Stat of the Day ‏@MLBStatoftheDay 2h2 hours ago
The @Cubs starting pitchers have a 14-1 record with a 1.78 ERA in their 21 games in August.
   3. Man o' Schwar Posted: August 24, 2016 at 03:38 PM (#5289390)
I think I speak for Cub fans everywhere when I say that I'd be perfectly happy to watch Bryant's yearly WAR match Pujols' career path for the next decade or so.
   4. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: August 24, 2016 at 03:43 PM (#5289397)
Yes it's very good. But a list like that will omit some excellent players who don't qualify because their first season was 8 or 12 games or something like that. Mike Trout being an obvious one, but also guys like Joe Jackson (-0.5 in his first 2 seasons, but 18.8 in his first 2 seasons of more than 20 games. Stan Musial who's first year was 12 games, and his net 2 he had 14.7. Frank Thomas who had 13.8 in the two years after his late season call up. ARod of course.

But yeah, I think the Cubs are pleased.
   5. Andere Richtingen Posted: August 24, 2016 at 04:56 PM (#5289430)
Funny, I found the keys and just posted something to Gonfalon Cubs. I just changed the status to pending so hopefully it won't compete with this thread.
   6. Andere Richtingen Posted: August 24, 2016 at 04:58 PM (#5289432)
Can he move into 2nd by the end of the year?

Sure he could, but I'm not going to be greedy. I am just thrilled that the Cubs are breaking through with a player who is clearly capable of sustained excellence.
   7. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: August 24, 2016 at 05:20 PM (#5289446)
Glad you found the keys. We all only have keys to our own stuff, so I can't see yours. I don't know if Jim will make it live or not, so you should change the status to open. Feel free to steal this thread's thunder, I just wanted something new up.
   8. Andere Richtingen Posted: August 24, 2016 at 05:25 PM (#5289448)
No, I'll wait. Totally different topic!
   9. Andere Richtingen Posted: August 24, 2016 at 07:07 PM (#5289493)
After 121 games, the Cubs have passed the high point of the 2008 team, and are 36 games over .500, a point last reached in 1945. After 121 games that season, the Cubs were 77-44. The '45 Cubs did not reach the +36 mark until game 141, and finished 98-56.
   10. bbmck Posted: August 24, 2016 at 09:37 PM (#5289560)
Highest OPS in first 273 games among players who played their first career game since 2000 (599 qualifying players):

Player                PA   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS
Ryan Howard         1129 .301 .399 .617 1.017
Albert Pujols       1161 .312 .395 .582  .977
Jason Bay           1111 .295 .384 .558  .943
Mike Trout          1208 .312 .387 .545  .932
Ryan Braun          1196 .299 .350 .579  .929

Jose Abreu          1174 .305 .366 .547  .914
Kris Bryant         1201 .287 .380 .528  .907
Joey Votto          1082 .306 .381 .527  .907
David Wright        1140 .304 .375 .525  .899
Travis Hafner       1051 .284 .376 .521  .897

Josh Hamilton       1149 .294 .362 .530  .892
Yasiel Puig         1165 .307 .388 .503  .891
Hanley Ramirez      1215 .313 .370 .519  .889
Adam Dunn           1154 .248 .381 .508  .889
Evan Longoria       1156 .279 .356 .532  .887

Corey Dickerson      954 .297 .343 .538  .882
Prince Fielder      1044 .275 .353 .526  .879
Mike Napoli          950 .255 .369 .504  .874
Mark Teixeira       1137 .270 .347 .525  .873
Seth Smith           725 .286 .363 .509  .872

Paul Goldschmidt    1110 .286 .363 .508  .871
Shin
-Soo Choo       1095 .291 .386 .484  .870
Carlos Quentin      1045 .262 .361 .508  .870
Joe Mauer           1141 .322 .399 .470  .869
Buster Posey        1112 .307 .375 .493  .868 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/24/2016.
   11. Dan The Mediocre is one of "the rest" Posted: August 25, 2016 at 08:52 AM (#5289681)
Awww, our very own ad spam!

It's been nice to see an actual development machine for position players. They don't seem to be churning out pitchers like they used to, but that's more than likely because of the shift in focus from pitching to hitting. And they seem to have replaced that pitching with relievers off the scrap heap, so it isn't as if it's a big problem.
   12. Dan The Mediocre is one of "the rest" Posted: August 25, 2016 at 09:07 AM (#5289689)
Also, Addison Russel has hit like Kris Bryant in the month of August.
   13. Zonk. Person. Man. Camera. TV. Posted: August 25, 2016 at 10:23 AM (#5289737)
Also, Addison Russel has hit like Kris Bryant in the month of August.


Boy has he... It's really hard to settle on a favorite Cub in this edition, but I'm very much leaning towards him (or Kyle Hendricks in the pitcher side... the other Kyle would be in the running if he wasn't hurt).

If he can get those K rates down a notch, look out. Kid can play and then some.

Heh -- check out #5 on this list... written less than 6 weeks ago :-)
   14. Man o' Schwar Posted: August 25, 2016 at 02:49 PM (#5289946)
It's been nice to see an actual development machine for position players. They don't seem to be churning out pitchers like they used to, but that's more than likely because of the shift in focus from pitching to hitting. And they seem to have replaced that pitching with relievers off the scrap heap, so it isn't as if it's a big problem.

They went so long without developing an actual hitter. We basically went from Mark Grace in 1988 to Bryant/Russell/Baez/Soler/Schwarber last year, with a couple of 1-2 year wonders tossed in here and there (Choi was decent in the first half of 2003, Soto had a couple of good seasons, Patterson made an AS team IIRC).

That's a long drought of futility.
   15. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: August 25, 2016 at 02:56 PM (#5289948)
They went so long without developing an actual hitter. We basically went from Mark Grace in 1988 to Bryant/Russell/Baez/Soler/Schwarber last year, with a couple of 1-2 year wonders tossed in here and there (Choi was decent in the first half of 2003, Soto had a couple of good seasons, Patterson made an AS team IIRC).


Forgotten Castro so quickly?

   16. Zonk. Person. Man. Camera. TV. Posted: August 25, 2016 at 03:01 PM (#5289950)
Forgotten Castro so quickly?


Castro has forgotten Castro.

Remember when his offensive 'downside' was Garry Templeton? That's now his UPSIDE.
   17. Red Voodooin Posted: August 25, 2016 at 03:08 PM (#5289959)
Castro has forgotten Castro.

Remember when his offensive 'downside' was Garry Templeton? That's now his UPSIDE.


One of the strangest "development curves" in MLB history (non-traumatic injury division)
   18. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: August 25, 2016 at 03:11 PM (#5289960)
Remember when his offensive 'downside' was Garry Templeton? That's now his UPSIDE.


Interesting.

Castro - 4265 PA 96 OPS+

Templeton through 1983 - 4205 PA 97 OPS+

Templeton had 4000 more PA remaining at 76 OPS+. If Castro is that bad, he won't get the playing time.
   19. bbmck Posted: August 25, 2016 at 03:18 PM (#5289964)
57 players have 4000+ PA through Age 26 season, debut since Mazeroski:

Player              OPSWAR/pos Rfield Rbaser From   PA
Aurelio Rodriguez     78    11.9   57.7    0.7 1967 4133
Elvis Andrus          83    20.4   20.0   29.8 2009 4635
Bill Mazeroski        86    19.8   74.7   
-2.0 1956 4368
Starlin Castro        96    10.9  
-36.0   -6.6 2010 4265
Edgar Renteria        96    19.4    3.8   15.6 1996 4859

Carl Crawford        102    23.5   60.9   32.9 2002 4060
Lloyd Moseby         102    18.7   40.6    6.6 1980 4005
Buddy Bell           103    24.4   62.9   
-9.1 1972 4089
Ivan Rodriguez       104    31.1   97.0    2.6 1991 4133
Adrian Beltre        106    26.5   71.7   
-5.5 1998 4468

Robin Yount          106    37.3   23.0   27.3 1974 5257
Andruw Jones         112    42.4  183.7   12.8 1996 4630
Roberto Alomar       116    31.7   
-9.1   27.6 1988 4487
Jim Fregosi          117    32.5   21.0    5.6 1961 4182
Ruben Sierra         118    20.4   12.3   10.0 1986 4512

Ted Simmons          119    25.4   
-5.7  -13.2 1968 4162
Justin Upton         121    20.3   12.0    5.9 2007 4314
Vada Pinson          124    40.2   18.1   21.9 1958 4956
Cal Ripken           125    37.7   56.4   
-2.8 1981 4279
Rusty Staub          128    26.1    2.3   
-5.6 1963 4678

Ron Santo            129    35.9    1.2   
-2.4 1960 4465
Johnny Bench         130    43.2   51.6   
-0.7 1967 4588
Cesar Cedeno         131    40.0    9.1   46.6 1970 4724
Rickey Henderson     136    44.0   59.9   60.6 1979 4142
Miguel Cabrera       141    26.0  
-49.0  -13.6 2003 4441

Player              OPS
WAR/pos Rfield Rbaser From   PA
Orlando Cepeda       141    30.3  
-27.5    3.9 1958 4437
Alex Rodriguez       144    55.2    9.8   33.2 1994 4972
Ken Griffey          148    49.9   74.0   12.4 1989 4558
Frank Robinson       150    46.1   43.5   19.4 1956 4491
Albert Pujols        169    46.0   39.7   10.6 2001 4062 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/25/2016.
   20. Ron J2 Posted: August 25, 2016 at 03:29 PM (#5289970)
#21 Right Templeton's character ( which Castro can't match ) got him that playing time.
   21. Man o' Schwar Posted: August 25, 2016 at 04:03 PM (#5289986)
I actually did forget Castro. That's my bad.
   22. Brian C Posted: August 26, 2016 at 12:05 AM (#5290255)
Patterson made an AS team IIRC

I thought so too, but BR doesn't show it. Although I might be thinking of that year when he was one of the last 5 or whatever that fans vote on.

Anyway, speaking of Patterson, nothing has made me feel older recently than noticing a couple weeks ago that it was Corey's 37th birthday. Man, how time flies.

I also didn't realize until just now that he ended up playing for 7 MLB teams. Not bad for a guy that had over half of his PAs with one team.
   23. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: August 26, 2016 at 12:29 AM (#5290259)
Last year there was an article somewhere positing hypothetical teams if no trades, FA, or releases were allowed. basically every team was made up of players originally signed to their first professional contract. The 2016 Cubs:

C - Willson Contreras
1b - Kris Bryant
2b - DJ LeMahieu
SS - Javier Baez
3B - Josh Donaldson
LF - Matt Szczur
CF - Albert Almora
RF - Jorge Soler

SP - Chris Archer
SP - Andrew Cashner
SP - Rich Hill
SP - Jeff Samardzjia
SP - Rickey Nolasco

That's a damned good lineup, even better if Schwarber comes back whole, but a scary pitching staff.



   24. Walt Davis Posted: August 26, 2016 at 03:29 AM (#5290291)
But a list like that will omit some excellent players who don't qualify because their first season was 8 or 12 games or something like that.

You mean like if Bryant had been called up in Aug 2014 like he should have been. :-)

Also we are comping Bryant at 23-24 to, for example, Bryce Harper at 19-20 or Machado at 19-20 or Frank Robinson at 20-21. Both of those current guys are younger than Bryant this season. So a more fair comparison that, in Bryant's case, will also take care of most of the players missed due to cups of coffee is to compare age 23-24 seasons. (This will still miss guys who missed time to injury, etc.)

Just in the expansion era, Bryant is 25th for ages 23-24 (no shame in that). Trout 17, Pujols 17, Griffey 15.5, Santo 15.5 ... Longoria 15.5 ... Brett 15 ... Willie Wilson 15 ... Grich 14 ... Moseby 13 ... Glaus 13 ... Andruw 13 ... Wright 12, Sandberg 12, Lynn 12, Sizemore 12. So even by expansion-era Cub standards he's currently tied for #2 and by 2B/3B/CF standards he's currently tied for 10th (not to mention all the SS and Bench). Many of those guys did similarly at 22-23 and you can add Betts, Machado, Cedeno, Fregosi, Harper, Rolen. Heck, Hank Blalock had 11 WAR at 22-23.

Awesome player but he's more in the Rolen/Glaus to Santo range (no complaints!) and most definitely shouldn't yet be compared in any way to Williams, Pujols, DiMaggio, Robinson, etc. in anything resembling career comps or great starts. Frank Robinson had 18 WAR before age 23.


   25. Zonk. Person. Man. Camera. TV. Posted: August 26, 2016 at 09:42 AM (#5290320)

I thought so too, but BR doesn't show it. Although I might be thinking of that year when he was one of the last 5 or whatever that fans vote on.


I think he was a near-lock to make the 2003 team as a backup, but got hurt just before the team was picked.
   26. Zonk. Person. Man. Camera. TV. Posted: August 26, 2016 at 09:53 AM (#5290324)
Just in the expansion era, Bryant is 25th for ages 23-24 (no shame in that). Trout 17, Pujols 17, Griffey 15.5, Santo 15.5 ... Longoria 15.5 ... Brett 15 ... Willie Wilson 15 ... Grich 14 ... Moseby 13 ... Glaus 13 ... Andruw 13 ... Wright 12, Sandberg 12, Lynn 12, Sizemore 12. So even by expansion-era Cub standards he's currently tied for #2 and by 2B/3B/CF standards he's currently tied for 10th (not to mention all the SS and Bench). Many of those guys did similarly at 22-23 and you can add Betts, Machado, Cedeno, Fregosi, Harper, Rolen. Heck, Hank Blalock had 11 WAR at 22-23.


Moseby surprised me on the list -- I remember him being good, but not that good... and sure enough - the age 23 and 24 seasons were pretty big outliers. He was still better than I remember - he'd post 3.2 WAR the following year, and then a 4 WAR year later in his career... 27.4 career total, which certainly isn't bad. However, half that comes in just those two years. He was a full-timer at 20 -- and wasn't very good in that season (or his age 21 or 22 seasons).

   27. bbmck Posted: August 26, 2016 at 11:01 AM (#5290378)
Bryant has 274 games by Age 24.234 (Bryant's age yesterday), the 75th most among players who played in 2016.

Beltre 810, Starlin 740, Miggy 720, Trout 652, A-Rod 642, Harper 627+, Andrus 615, Pujols 605, Reyes 596, JUpton 590, Machado 573+, Stanton 571, Heyward 533, BButler 533, Francoeur 522, Crawford 522, Jay Bruce 514, Altuve 514, Prince 513, Hosmer 507 and Freeman 501 with 500+. Bogaerts 441 at 23.330 most likely does it.

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