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— Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans

Friday, May 06, 2016

Jake

There’s a million different ways to talk about how dominant Arrieta has been recently:

Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka May 3
Jake Arrieta’s last 26 regular season starts:
0 Runs allowed: 14
1 Run allowed:    6
2+ Runs allowed: 6

Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka May 3
Jake Arrieta ERA (regular season):
1.62 in 2015-16
0.85 in last 26 starts
0.55 in last 18 starts
1.46 on road in 2015-16
0.84 in 2016

Most of them usually include some sort of “since X”, with X being sometime last year.  That naturally leads to the question “How long can this last?”  Well, Walt posted this in the other Cubs thread from yesterday, and I thought it was interesting enough I wanted to post it here for the sake of posterity. 

“His last 26 starts ... 190 IP, 96 hits, 0.85 ERA, 0.99 RA

His last 32 starts ... 227 IP, 133 hits, 1.35 ERA (not quite Gibby)

2015-2016: 272 IP, 170 hits, 1.62 ERA

2014-2016: 429 IP, 284 hits, 1.95 ERA

The mans’ averaged just 6 h/9 over the last 2+ seasons ... amazing for a SP. The WHIP is under .9 ... to maybe put that in perspective

Arrieta 2015: 1.77 ERA, 219 ERA+, 5.9 H/9, 0.865 WHIP, 9.3/1.9 K/BB
Arrieta 2014-2016: 1.95 ERA, 198 ERA+, 6 H/9, 0.909 WHIP, 9.2/2.1 K/BB

Arrieta last year was only a bit better than Arrieta average 2014-16.

It’s about the damnedest thing I’ve ever seen.”

Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: May 06, 2016 at 10:15 AM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: May 06, 2016 at 10:26 AM (#5214322)
Thanks again, Walt.
   2. Red Voodooin Posted: May 06, 2016 at 01:37 PM (#5214533)
I have absolutely no concern anymore that Jake's run of success isn't real or sustainable. Not saying he's going to keep up the Pedro-like pace, but I'm also not certain that he won't.

Also, HAPPY KERRY WOOD 20 K DAY!
   3. KB JBAR (trhn) Posted: May 06, 2016 at 09:23 PM (#5215081)
So overrated. Arrieta is 28th in MLB in BPro's DRA based WARP behind Rubby de la Rosa and Hector Santiago.
   4. McCoy Posted: May 06, 2016 at 10:05 PM (#5215115)
Looking more and more like the Cubs should have signed him last year. Does Jake stay in Chicago and does he live up to the contract he gets?
   5. Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com Posted: May 07, 2016 at 08:25 AM (#5215338)
Jake Arrieta, since throwing a CG SHO on June 21 & including the 2016 postseason (normally people don't combine regular and postseason numbers, but since this is about how dominant Arrieta has been in this stretch, it strikes me as a good time to make an exception. Yes the postseason does worsen his overall numbers, but hey - that was part of his performance in this stretch):

G: 29
GS: 29
CG: 6
SHO: 5
no-hitters: 2
IP: 209.6
H: 110
BB: 43
K: 212
R: 29
ER: 26
HBP 7
HR: 6
TBF: 770
W-L: 24-2
Team record: 26-3

And the rate stats:
BABIP: 0.207
WHIP: 0.73
HR/9: 0.26
H/9: 4.72
W/9: 1.86
K/9: 9.10
R/9: 1.24
ERA: 1.12


   6. Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com Posted: May 07, 2016 at 01:49 PM (#5215455)
Since I feel like looking stuff up today.... Records for all MLB teams, from July 29, 2015-onward. Ranked in order (and put in bunches of five to make it easier to read):

CHC 67-24
TOR 59-33
TEX 57-36
NYM 55-35
PIT 56-36

CLE 50-38
BOX 51-39
LAD 50-40
STL 51-41
DCN 50-43

KCR 48-43
BAL 47-43
SEA 47-43
CWS 48-46
MIA 45-45

SFG 45-48
TBR 42-45
LAA 43-47
ARI 44-50
PHI 41-50

HOU 41-50
DET 40-49
NYY 40-50
SDP 40-52
MIN 39-53

COL 39-54
OAK 36-54
MIL 35-55
CIN 33-61
ATL 28-62

Record-wise, Toronto is closer to St. Louis than they are to the Cubs
   7. Man o' Schwar Posted: May 08, 2016 at 06:38 PM (#5216252)
Arrieta was off his game today - pitches were all over the place. But he pitched out of some tight spots, and he kept the team in the game. It was a well-earned no-decision.

You have to figure even peak Pedro had his off days.
   8. McCoy Posted: May 08, 2016 at 06:46 PM (#5216260)
And on the seventh day God finished his work that he had done, and he rested on the seventh day from all his work that he had done.
   9. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: May 08, 2016 at 09:34 PM (#5216431)
And now they will lose 2 of 3 to the Padres.
   10. Spahn Insane Posted: May 08, 2016 at 10:53 PM (#5216496)
And now they will lose 2 of 3 to the Padres.

Well, if they follow that with another sweep of the Pirates, I'll be good with it.
   11. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: May 09, 2016 at 10:29 AM (#5216640)
And now they will lose 2 of 3 to the Padres.

I should moderate this pessimism straight off this blog.

Looking more and more like the Cubs should have signed him last year. Does Jake stay in Chicago and does he live up to the contract he gets?

Of all the contract negotiations out there, I would have really, really enjoyed listening in to this one. Both sides have some really obvious points, and it's hard to see a middle ground that doesn't leave both sides unhappy*. The only thing we know (well, as much as we can) is that Boras is asking for 6 or 7 years (probably using the Grienke deal as a comp) and the Cubs are holding firm at 4 (which I assume means 4 FA years, and not just 4 total including the arb year - or years if it was the offer pre this current year deal). I have no idea how much money a 6 year deal after last season would have taken to sign him, and whatever that amount is I probably would find it out to see the Cubs accepting. It's just fascinating.

I think the most likely outcome is he leaves as a FA. I hope I'm wrong, but we'll see. That's why I said in the other thread the mid-term goal for the Cubs might be to find that next ace. Doesn't look like there's a guy in house; could be a FA, could be a trade. Who knows.

*Unless Jake took the opinion that staying with the Cubs is the most important thing. He hired Boras, so I'm not holding my breath on that.
   12. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: May 09, 2016 at 10:52 AM (#5216663)
I should moderate this pessimism straight off this blog.


Hey, 5 of their 6 losses have come against teams with losing records. 3 of those at home.
   13. Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com Posted: May 09, 2016 at 11:00 AM (#5216680)
I was at yesterday's game. And last year I was at Cole Hamels' no-hitter (which was Arietta's last loss). So during the game I was thinking, "Man, I'm going to be at the losses that bookend the longest winning streak any pitcher in franchise history has had).
   14. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: May 09, 2016 at 12:09 PM (#5216785)
I guess it's worth watching Jake's walks now. Yesterday made it 14 walks in his last 26 IP. I thought he was getting squeezed quite a bit yesterday - there were 4 clear strikes called balls in the first inning alone (based on the in game Kzone, which may or may not have been accurate, but I haven't double checked today) - but he has appeared to be "struggling" a bit more with his command sporadically.
   15. Dan Posted: May 09, 2016 at 02:43 PM (#5216976)
Arrieta's command has definitely been off. Even in the no hitter he was having trouble throwing strikes at times.
   16. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: May 09, 2016 at 06:18 PM (#5217195)
Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka 1h1 hour ago
#Cubs are 70-26 (.729) since Jake Arrieta's last loss (July 25 Hamels no-hitter)
   17. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 14, 2016 at 06:13 PM (#5221178)
I was out and about and didn't catch any of the Cubs' game until the top of the 4th. I came in w/ runners on 1st-and-3rd, no outs, and after the 2-run single, I was thinking, "Man, Jake doesn't really have it." It turns out that outside of the 4th inning, Jake pitched 7 no-hit innings w/ only 2 baserunners and 5 1-2-3 innings. It's just so bizarre. He doesn't have bad games; he barely has bad innings; it's more like every once in awhile, he has a bad 2 or 3 batters.
   18. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: May 14, 2016 at 07:40 PM (#5221217)
Stealing from Walt in the game chatter again:

The amazing Arrieta run is up to:

28 starts, 25-2, 203 IP, 0.98 ERA, 202 K, 105 H

Gibson made 34 starts in 1968. Adding his previous 6 starts puts his ERA up to 1.43 in 240 IP.

Gibson threw 304 innings that year ... that goes back to 2014 for Arrieta. Including his last two starts of that year gets him to 43 starts, 301 IP, 30-6, 303 Ks, 179 H and a 1.58 ERA.

Great googly moogly.

His 2014 may have been even better than it looks. Obviously you can do this to make any pitcher look better, but he had two terrible starts giving up a total of 15 runs in 9 innings. Drop those two starts and his 2014 ERA is down to 1.76. Remove those two from his last 3 seasons and his ERA is 1.70, down from 1.98

In short, he's been operating at this sub-2 level for a while now. The challenge of course that even a pretty dominant day like today raised his ERA ... when you've got to do better than 9 IP and 2 ER, you've got your work cut out for you.
   19. McCoy Posted: May 15, 2016 at 12:03 PM (#5221429)
I've been fortunate to catch Jake when I've been able to watch the Cubs on TV and the movement and speed that I see on his pitches are unreal. It's like Pedro in 2000. I really have no idea how anyone gets a hit off him let alone a run.

Like Kiko I came to that game when the Cubs were up 3-2 and I was thinking uh-oh, what's going on with Jake. He then went off and struck out something like 4 guys in a row and got something like 10 strikeouts in the final 5 or so innings. And it was the Pirates! Yeah, I know he's had their number for awhile now but they are still the second place team and would be looking pretty good right now if it wasn't for the Cubs absolutely demolishing them at every chance they get.
   20. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: May 21, 2016 at 08:41 AM (#5225857)
Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka 7h7 hours ago
Jake Arrieta has now crossed the 500 inning & 500 strikeout mark as a #Cubs pitcher
44-13, 2.14 ERA, 500.1 IP, 331 Hits, 503 K, 0.927 WHIP


113BBs.
   21. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: May 21, 2016 at 11:23 AM (#5225901)
Tim Kurkjian ‏@Kurkjian_ESPN 5h5 hours ago
The Cubs have a +58 run differential in Jake Arrieta's nine starts this year. No other team has a +58 in all their games. #seamheadsaturday
   22. McCoy Posted: May 21, 2016 at 11:27 AM (#5225904)
Dear Jake,

I feel like I can call you Jake because you and me are so much alike. I would love to meet you some day, it would be great to have a catch. I know I can’t throw as fast as you, but I think you’d be impressed with my speed. I love your hair. You run fast. Did you have a good relationship with your father? Me neither. These are all things we can talk about and more. I know you have not been getting my letters because I know you would write back if you did. And I hope you write back this time, and we get to be good friends. I’m sure our relationship would be a real homerun!

Rooting for you always,
Mc
   23. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: June 17, 2016 at 05:01 PM (#5246291)
Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka 20s21 seconds ago
Jake Arrieta's last 34 starts:
1.20 ERA, 240.0 IP, 133 Hits, 248 K, 5 HR allowed, 0.796 WHIP

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