User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 0.5642 seconds
56 querie(s) executed
|
You are here > Home > Gonfalon Cubs > Discussion
| ||||||||
|
|
BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot TopicsI guess we're still doing this?
(54 - 10:23am, Oct 07) Last: Brian C This all sucks (41 - 11:13pm, Sep 23) Last: Brian C Darvish Trade Rumors (2 - 10:26pm, Dec 28) Last: Swedish Chef Cubs Postseason Thoughts (12 - 12:27pm, Oct 03) Last: Moses Taylor loves a good maim 60 Second Season Preview (84 - 1:01pm, Sep 28) Last: McCoy Being cheap is not a plan (110 - 1:15pm, Jul 03) Last: Moses Taylor loves a good maim Regrets (160 - 10:25pm, Dec 18) Last: Walt Davis Approaching the Finish Line (137 - 11:53pm, Sep 29) Last: Brian C 2019 Season Predictions (164 - 10:45pm, Sep 24) Last: Itchy Row Taking the current temperature (387 - 11:24am, Sep 16) Last: Andere Richtingen That was fun (488 - 5:41pm, Jul 28) Last: Dag Nabbit: Sockless Psychopath Spring Training (86 - 2:15pm, Mar 26) Last: Moses Taylor loves a good maim Now what? (427 - 3:43pm, Feb 07) Last: Voodoo The Final Push (346 - 11:16am, Oct 03) Last: Moses Taylor loves a good maim The Third Third (296 - 6:20pm, Sep 04) Last: Moses Taylor loves a good maim Syndicate |
|||||||
|
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2021 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
| | ||||||
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Most of that was done without Contreras - who when he went down was arguably the Cubs' best bat - and with virtually nothing from Russell, Zobrist, and Heyward. Kind of amazing in a way.
Anyone know when the last time the Cubs scored at least 15 runs in a game four times in one month was? Has to be a while.
Theo and co. have many decisions to make for the rest of Bryzzo's prime - most importantly, getting optimal trade value for Russell. Their patience with the Schwarbino seems to be working out; a "Greg Luzinski v.2" career has value.
My ideal 2018 position player roster:
Contreras, Caratini
Rizzo, Happ, Baez, Bryant, La Stella, glove-first SS backup
Schwarber-Almora-Heyward as everyday starters, trying hard to bring back Jay as the 4th OF
Zobrist in a super-utility/5th OF/favorable match-up role
I won't even try to guess what the pitching staff will look like ;)
---
Last time they did it four times in a SEASON? 2003.
The last major league team to do so at all was the 1985 New York Mets (in July).
They did it in June, 1930. If they did it since, it was a team that scored fewer than 750 runs on the season.
They scored 215 runs that month.
It might not be as consistently pretty as last year, but I'm not going to take it that far. The Cubs last year did get shut out 4 times combined in the NLCS and WS. It's still notable if the Cubs do end up scoring more this year than last.
We - and I'm including myself here - tend have a recency problem with all these young players. Javy had a good month, but it was unimaginable just a month ago to even imply Russell was so easily replaceable. He probably has the most trade value of any of the young guys, so if the Cubs really felt that could live with Javy's up and down, inconsistent offense (and sometimes defense) as the everyday SS, I could eventually buy into the idea of moving Russell if you're getting an absolute stud SP back (like Archer). However, I think can't help but feel that Russell has a ceiling much higher than Javy at his best, and that there's plenty of value in his much more consistent level of play.
I've been about as a big of a Schwarber defender here as anyone - including his defensive adequacy - but I think the big decision really is about him, and not Russell. If Happ is really going to have this much power - at least equal to Schwarber - Schwarber is by far the most expendable. Happ as a fulltime LF would be an upgrade on the current Schwarber experience (I'm also pretty sure I'd rather Happ be an OF - I'm even ok if they work him into a fulltime CF - than an infielder); a Happ/Almora/Heyward would have the potential to be one of the better defensive OF in baseball; Russell/Baez in the middle would also be the best middle IF. That main group: Rizzo/Bryant/Russell/Baez/Happ/Almora/Heyward is also pretty perfectly complimented by Zobrist, and Jay/LaStella types. Obviously you're not getting the same return for Schwarber as you would from Russell, but I'm ok with that.
2015: 11.8; 30.6
2016: 10.7; 22.0
2017: 14.8; 18.8
When these stupid RISP/Clutch fluke numbers straighten out...
Well, since we're just guessing...
The rotation seems pretty set - Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, FA, and Montgomery. The FA market looks pretty thin; only Cobb and Estrada really look decent. Maybe there's a trade to be made to get a "legit #2" and bump Hendricks to #4.
As for the bullpen, who knows. I figure Rondon, Strop, and Wilson are locks. Grimm and Zastryzny will probably be there. I could see the team spending money or making a trade for a "proven closer", and then filling the holes with random FA and seeing who comes out of spring training.
Or if he continues to pitch this way through the end of the season (and then the playoffs and WS), will someone throw up a ridiculous offer (say 6 years/$210 million) that the Cubs won't be willing to match?
Maples has pitched at 3 levels this year
A+: 31IP, 44/15 K/BB, 2.01ERA
AA: 13.2IP, 28/11 K/BB, 3.29ERA
AAA: 18.1IP, 28/11 K/BB (not a copy/paste error), 1.96ERA.
He's 25, and a former 14th round pick of the Cubs in 2011. That K rate is something else, but so is the walk rate. He really hasn't shown up in prospect lists I've seen.
A blurb from Cubs Den from throughout the year:
He could be interesting, and maybe a decent shot to make a postseason roster over someone like Grimm.
Cubs moved next Friday's game from the afternoon to a night game; Brewers obviously still sore over that rainout earlier.
Adding in Rizzo, Bryant and Contreras makes that a truly outstanding defensive team. But if you're constructing a roster with an eye toward the playoffs then Kyle still has an important place on the team as a bat only guy.
At what point do you think about making a serious offer to bring Arietta back? He's looked a lot more like ace Arietta from 2015/early 2016 lately.
I have little confidence in Arrieta's long term effectiveness but I think they will have to make a serious run at him. I expect Darvish to remain a Dodger and I want nothing to do with Cueto on the off chance he opts out. If the Cubs are filling the number 5 rotation spot with Montgomery and a gaggle of mediocrity then getting a top-tier(ish) FA for the other rotation spot is increasingly important.
I know you don't mean exclusively World Series DH, but Jay and LaStella are very good PH options, and so would Zobrist in a scenario where he's not starting. Maybe this falls apart in a world where Heyward continues to hit like Quintana. Schwarber's power is nice, but he's more likely to strike out than anything else.
Of course, in a perfect world, I don't think the Cubs need to move anyone and can find enough playing time for everyone. I just reckon that even if the Cubs resign Arrieta or sign Darvish, trading for another decent starter isn't out of the question.
---
As for Darvish, while money really isn't an object for the Dodgers and they have plenty of money coming off the books, I actually think I'll be shocked if they sign him. They still have a ton of arms under contract, including young guys - Kershaw, Kazmir, Hill, McCarthy, Ryu, Wood, Urias (Beuhler is #17 prospect per BA, etc) that even though almost all of them are injury prone (and some are FA after next year), I feel like spending big on Darish wouldn't seem to be a high priority. I'd bet they just let him go after the season.
Hmmm
From David Kaplan. More smoke...
Ugh.
I am not sure the Cubs have the equivalent of that package in their system right now, and even if they did, I wouldn't want to give it up. I think the deal makes more sense for the Astros.
---
Justin Wilson has looked much, much better lately. Maddon's been easing him back in lower leverage situations, but that's very nice to see.
He can't be worse than Felix Pena.
...and also has walked over five batters per nine innings. And he's 26.
Look, I'm sure there are organizations that have room for Leathersich on their 40-man roster. And when he lands on one, I will not be shocked to see him emerge as a successful pitcher on a major league team. This happens. It could even happen in the Cubs organization. But the question is: who gets DFA'd in his place? As I see it, the Cubs roster doesn't seem to be short on pitchers who throw hard, get a lot of strikeouts, and walk way too many batters.
He can't be worse than Felix Pena.
I don't know how Maddon feels about Leathersitch versus Peña, but we got a sense about how he feels about Peña in today's game. I'm guessing the result was not regret or anger about the Cubs DFAing Leathersich.
Well, as I said above, Jacob Hannemann seems like a good candidate, since a world in which he is a major league player is a world where you don't need Leonys Martin.
post-break
LAD 31-12 .721, 3.23 ERA, 194 RS, 147 RA
CHC 31-15 .674, 3.67 ERA, 278 RS, 182 RA
WSN 29-17 .630, 3.30 ERA, 218 RS, 162 RA
#1 in RS by more than a run per game, #3 in RA, #1 in differential. Of course the schedule has helped a lot.
That may be true, but I believe the Cubs had 23 pitchers on the 40-man roster, which is a lot. Apparently the Cubs wanted a CF defensive specialist on the expanded ML roster, so they picked up Martin, and took another pitcher off the roster instead of Hannemann. We are talking about freely interchangeable, replacement-value players: nothing to see here.
#1 in RS by more than a run per game, #3 in RA, #1 in differential. Of course the schedule has helped a lot.
If you call a 5+ run differential a blowout, the Cubs are 14-3 (+85 runs) in those games since the ASB. Before the ASB, 9-14 in blowouts, and an overall run differential of zero.
I'll tell you, it doesn't really fell like I've been watching a team playing .680 ball for the last seven weeks, and actually underperforming their Pythag by >1 win.
I do recall Kyle Schwarber debuting as a late inning defensive replacement behind the plate...
...which was extended to 0-12 into 1969. After that: 18-8.
The game was suspended due to darkness the day before, in the 15th inning with the score tied 4-4. The next day before the main event, the Astros got three runs off Dave Gumpert in the 17th, and then the Cubs tied it up on a Keith Moreland HR in the bottom of the inning. Maddux was then brought into pinch run, but the Cubs did not score any more. On the mound, Maddux promptly gave up a HR to Billy Hatcher in the bottom of the 18th for the loss.
My guess at the time was that the Cubs were mostly relieved it was over.
Hmm.
Some good news at least.
*
**Or Hendricks maybe could have kept going. Joe really needs to test him out more in those spots and realize he doesn't need to be so protective.
I'm still annoyed Maddon pulled Montgomery after 5 IP (and just 64 pitches) a few days ago for a pinch hitter with 2 out and a guy on first. As rallies go, that ain't much of one. And the non-reliable bullpen had been torched the day before in the 14-12 game.
It made no difference. Cubs won that game. Wouldn't score enough runs to win the Montgomery game. And got killed in the Arrieta game. But .... Maddon's hook is too quick too often lately; especially given the bullpen and that they're still playing 20 days without an off-day.
I would rather see anyone else in RF than him; perhaps Russell's continued absence is the only thing keeping Heyward as a regular (Javy would be near FT at 2b and so Zobrist/Happ would have to spend more time in RF). I think Happ should be playing almost every day, then Jay and Schwarber the next step down, and Zobrist and Almora filling in the rest; with TLS playing more often now it's really easy to just use Heyward as a PH/defensive replacement down the stretch.
*He's not tied with Zobrist for the worst bat on the team with an 81OPS+ (Zobrist has been bad so far in Sept, but he looked alive in August at least). He's been consistently terrible - his best month was March/April with a .747 OPS and August was his worst at .627. We tried so hard to see a good stretch early in the year, but that's so so long ago now and really it just feels flukish in retrospect.
And the fact that a month of .747 OPS seems flukishly good from a corner outfielder is fairly pathetic.
Anyway, I'm with you. I'm now fully convinced that Heyward's just a bad hitter. He wasn't when he was 20, but he is now.
His is a very strange case, to be sure.
Happ (CF)/Bryant/Rizzo/Zobrist/Schwarber/Baez/Heyward/Rivera/Lester.
It wasn't pretty most of the night, with a bunch of of pitches, walks, and hard hit balls early before cruising the last few innings.
BTW, even though Duesing has been good, I knew there was a reason like I felt he's been worse than the numbers - he's allowed 26 of 31 inherited runners to score!
I think you read that backwards. Per Baseball-Reference (Reliever Pitching table) he's allowed 5 (IS) of 31 (IR) inherited runners to score.
Goodness knows I wouldn't want him anywhere near the pitcher's mound in anything remotely resembling a high-leverage playoff situation, but when I was thinking through the playoff roster a week or two ago, I'm not sure there are 25 guys who are obviously better choices.
C: Contreras, Avila
IF: Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, [Russell], Zobrist, LaStella
OF: Schwarber, Happ, Jay, Almora, Heyward
SP: Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks, Quintana
RP: Montgomery, Duensing, Rondon, Edwards, Strop, Davis
That's 23 guys. I'm skeptical that Russell will be healthy by then, although nobody else on that roster other than Baez can really play shortstop, so maybe Russell would have to be replaced by Mike Freeman.
So, that leaves two slots. Maybe you put Leonys Martin in one, on the basis of why else bother acquiring him a few minutes before the deadline. On the other hand, he hasn't really done much and I tend to think "designated pinch runner" is overrated as being worth a roster spot.
But even with Freeman and Martin using up two slots, there's still a free slot, which I assume will be filled by a reliever. Your choices are Uehara, Wilson, Grimm, or John Lackey. Basically, it's "best of a bad lot", but Wilson might just make the most sense there, given that he's the only one of the four who's left-handed.
EDIT: It might be more accurate to drop Rondon down to the Uehara, Wilson, Grimm, Lackey group and say "pick 2 of 5" to fill out the roster.
Would one of those other guys throwing left-handed necessarily be worse than Wilson has pitched?
No, he's STRANDED 26 inherited runners and five have scored. Allowing 26/31 to score would be virtually impossible. And way, way worse than Wilson's 12 bad innings. The overall numbers are bad for Wilson, but I would take a lot more stock in his 42 appearances with Detroit than the 15 he's had with the Cubs. Before his last two terrible outings he had six straight really good ones. I trust him no more or less than I do Strop, Rondon, Uehara and Edwards.
Wouldn't you put the 2nd thing first?
You can't, because then it would be the 1st thing.
Yeah, I was going to write up a new post, but then realized I had nothing to say except this.
Bryant has been bad this month - .176/.300/.294; his last HR was 8/31, and before that were on 8/26 and 8/17. His lack of consistent power this year has been odd, just like his unclutchness.
Rizzo's been off this month, too - .258/.333/.355. Both of those aren't even 2 weeks, but when both of them scuffle at the same time the offense just seems to really suck (except right after the AS break when Contreras was on his tear).
Schwarber's not starting much right now. Baez has been consistently himself, which is both good and bad mixed. Zobrist and Heyward have been bad. Happ is up and down and not playing all the time. Jay still is fine.
I'm not ready to draw bigger pictures here - like the Cubs can't hit good pitching, which is something I've seen floating around - but the feast or famine extremeness of this year has been annoying.
Beyond playoff series, of course, I struggle with remembering specific regular season series that stick out -- I mean, I can sort of vaguely remember series that were critical in clinching a division or sowing up a WC here or there, but very much yes on that Milwaukee series. Three high-scoring weekend games in the heat of a playoff chase, capped with a couple walk-off comebacks?
That was a weird season... It was an enormously exciting September - even beyond the Sosa chase - but I do very much remember going into the playoffs without much hope of going anywhere. Even the euphoria after the game 163 quickly dissipated into a sort of "well, that was fun... now it's on to getting swept by the Braves". Whether it was just a sober recognition of the reality of facing a juggernaut Braves team or just that the September felt like it was "enough" fun for a season, that was the only time I can remember going into the playoffs without much in the way of even irrationally exuberant expectations and not being as crest fallen as I had been previously or would be thereafter, when the run ended.... almost like an epilogue that you read because, well, there's an epilogue but you know it's not really going to move the story forward or whatnot.
I'm partial to 9/1-9/4 2003, when the Cubs won 4 of 5 against the Cards, including a Sosa walk-off in the 15th and 2 add'l 1 run wins (IIRC, both were comeback ones).
Zobrist
Bryant
Rizzo
Contreras!!!!!
Happ
Schwarber
Heyward
Baez
Quintana
I don't want to see Heyward in there. How about going back to the pitcher hitting 8th and put Javy 7th, with Jay in RF and hitting 9th?
Do you still have your Gracie the Swan beanie baby?
Cub OF OPS+ and dWAR (includes lots of 2B for Zo, a little for Happ):
Heyward 82, 1.1
Zobrist 83, -0.1
Almora 89, 0.1 (his D has been a disappointment this year)
Schwarber 94, -1.2
Jay 94, -0.6
Happ 116, -0.2
(Note, those minuses aren't that bad given the negative Rpos for corners.)
I still tend towards "if nobody but Happ can hit, let's put the best D out there." (Happ/Almora/Heyward ... with some Jay vs RHP.) That said, Schwarber is hitting 239/333/528 in the 2nd half which is a 124 sOPS+ so Schwarber/Happ/Heyward might be our best mix of offense and defense. He's still below replacement on the year though ... Zobrist has pushed himself comfortably above replacement.
And of course as lousy as his defense is, LaStella's 121 OPS+ and 377 OBP is screaming to lead off and play 2B against RHP.
Is it time to start seriously griping about Maddon's 2017 performance? He's really seemed stuck in a rut -- Schwarber, Zo, Heyward, probably too much Jay, not enough LaStella, Javy batting 8th, Hendricks not going deep into games (this might finally be changing), pretty much still the same bullpen usage patterns. I hate to say it but he seems like he's managing by spreadsheet. It reminds me of myself playing Diamond Mind or similar where I know the next outcome is random and that the underlying "true talent" hasn't changed since the season started so if DM tells me that Zo was the better option at 2B on April 2 then, by god, that's obviously still the correct decision on Sept 12.
OK, not that stuck in a rut -- he's still doles out a lot of PT through lineup rotation but it seems the same pattern as what he started with. Only Rizzo and Bryant will clear 600 PAs, Javy might be the only other one to be qualified (Heyward, Zo and Schwarber will all be close). If Russell had been healthy he'd have qualified but then Javy probably not.
He's played so little and inconsistently, and quite frankly his defense still passes the eye test for me, that I'm perfectly comfortable calling him a good defender, and thus going by your criteria, my preferred OF is Scwharber/Almora/Happ with Jay mixed in there (and since Jay doesn't have a platoon split - this year or his career - it might actually be Schwarber sitting against LHP for Jay). I'll admit some of it is irrational with Heyward, but even as a plus defender, it's just RF so I really don't think his positive defense makes up for it.
Also, Schwarber since his recall is hitting .244/.337/.538. So I wouldn't really want to use full season numbers for him in doling out this PT.
Is it time to start seriously griping about Maddon's 2017 performance?
Yes, I think so. I'm not sure I completely agree with your list per se, but there are quite a few things worth complaining about (my biggest gripe remains how long he let Schwarber flounder hitting leadoff). The overall PT looks like he's done a good job big picture resting guys and filling in around injuries. Except, of course, for Heyward. And Zobrist when his wrist was still hurt.
Outside of using guys who were bad/struggling in key moments (he stayed with Koji too long when it was obvious his stuff was faltering; he kept faith in Grimm way too long), I don't really have a huge problem in the overall bullpen usage. Maybe he could have used Davis a little more, but everyone in the pen has cycled through good/bad/good stretches in a very unpredictable way (as bullpens tend to do).
I think you nailed the underlying theme with most of our complaints - faith in guys playing up to career norms, with the glaringly obvious exception of his inability to trust Hendricks. From the outside, it seems like that sort of even handedness should be successful with this talented of a team and should help when things aren't going poorly.
Ha! Like virtually all giveaways I got during that period in my life, it did not survive the postgame celebrations in wrigleyville.
However, on a lark - just texted the buddy I attended the game with and he (or rather his now-wife/then-GF) does indeed still have his.
Sadly - or fortunately, in my case - I see they're only going for about $25 on ebay... so at least I'm not missing out on a fortune!
Yes, I registered, why do you ask?
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main