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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Wednesday, October 12, 2016NLDS Winner ThreadJust wanted to get something up. Probably will write more tomorrow. All I’ll say is have some faith in this team. Don’t get discouraged or give up so easy. They’re good, and it’s never over. Hell, they’re really ####### good. Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: October 12, 2016 at 12:58 AM | 54 comment(s)
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1. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 12, 2016 at 01:36 AM (#5322472)I think the marathon last night/early this morning was more draining that I first realized, because I was feeling pretty chippy right away during tonight's game. Really glad I unplugged and went for a long drive during the endless fifth inning. I put my phone on airplane mode and was toying with the idea of just trying to go to bed and check the score in the morning. So glad I didn't.
That comeback in the ninth was like a souped up version of some of the comebacks we've seen from this team all year, but for obvious reasons, it's going to be etched in our minds for a long time to come.
Overall, quite the eventful series, and I'm just glad we can now stretch out a bit in the confines of a seven-game series.
I did that, more or less, in 2005 when Illinois went down big late, to Arizona in the elite 8 game. I missed one of the great comebacks. I didn't miss it tonight. But unlike 2005, this was not an elimination game. Sure, I didn't want to go to a game 5, but tonight wasn't do or die, and that was comforting. Even so, I have vowed to not get too worked up. It's been an awesome season, and I assume we will lose sometime, and if we don't, all the better.
Baby started crying and I went get him. Walked by the monitor holding him and it was 5-5. Put him back to bed and it was the bottom of the 9th.
Dont care! Cubs win!
This madness made the comeback all the much sweeter. Part of the reason I dipped out earlier was because I just couldn't handle more pitching changes. Last night was an exciting game, but when you factor in the duration, the highs and lows, the pitching changes, and the replays, it was just such a taxing experience.
It was crazy what pulling myself away from the game and detaching for a half hour did for my psyche. Had I been tuned in the entire time, that #### in the ninth may have made me keel over in madness before I could see the full comeback.
And, too, I was more afraid of the LDS than anything beyond it, whether that's rational or not. Combination of that, lack of sleep and frustration from the night before, and decades of negative history equalled blind rage, and I couldn't deal.
I think belief for me stirred after KB's single, after Rizzo walked - I was thinking yeah maybe... and Zo's double, I figured we got this.
I'm sorry Spahnie missed it - maybe if they're up 3-0 or something, they can do another comeback to win game 4 -- but for my tastes, I would be perfectly fine with a lot of easy, efficient 4-0 and 5-1 wins from here on out.
The Cubs could lose the NLCS. That's always possible. But I feel pretty dang confident that they won't choke. If they lose, it'll be because they got outplayed. And that's possible - but it sure is tough to outplay this club.
Will now be hoping the Nationals beat the Dodgers. If so I'll try to head up to a game in DC.
When Zobrist doubled and the Cubs got only one I thought for sure the Cubs missed a real chance to tie the game. I was thinking, alright a strikeout/popup and ball in play gets you one run but now you got 1 out and the need to score 1 more run.
The Giants ARE a good pitching team - even with the bullpen flambe they were serving up for about 6 weeks late in the year (I think they were 3rd in the NL). Everyone - rightfully - gives Baez the MVP, but Bryant swung the stick well, too (in fact, he outhit Baez purely by the numbers). Contreras also quietly had a nice series in limited time. A single and a couple walks may not be reason to proclaim Rizzo "fine now" -- but they all came against LHPs and I feel like he had really good PAs to get there. The only guy who's still stuck in the icebox is really Russell. Even Heyward actually hit a line drive(!!!).
The pen had its moments, to be sure -- but Rondon got the win last night, Edwards was nasty, Monty was a hero... Coughing up runs never feels good out of the pen, but it's not a pen being held together with bailing wire.
I feel good going into the NLCS. That was probably as tough a series as a 3-1 series win can be, but we won 3 of 4. We had moments where every part of the team - the starting pitching, the bullpen, the defense, AND the offense did look like peak 2016 Cubs. It just never all seemed to happen, simultaneously, in a single game. The lack of a 12-0 laugher where your starter goes 7 strong and the pen looks unhittable, with everyone in the lineup contributing doesn't mean the pieces aren't all still there.
Anyway, I'm hoping for a Nats win. I don't have any idea whether the Nats or Dodgers would be an easier opponent, and that's not why I have a preference. I just think the Nats would be more fun. LA is just a boring sports town, with a boring team and a boring (on TV anyway) ballpark. San Fran is great. DC is great. LA is just dull.
* - It was all just too much for awhile. On top of how stressful this series was on its own terms, I'll always associate it with Hurricane Matthew. I was visiting my parents down in St. Augustine, FL last week when the storm hit and rode it out at their place. Everyone was fine in their part of town, but we were mostly without power for both Games 1 and 2 and I spent that time frantically trying to follow the games with a weak cell signal while conserving phone battery. First world problems, I guess.
I rarely find myself rooting for division rivals, but I'm definitely there.
According to Gameday, every single one was a four-seam fastball.
This is something that's long fascinated me. What is the fastball speed at which a major-league pitcher needs no secondary pitches or fancy movement? Obviously, all major-league hitters can hit a straight 90 mph fastball if they know it's coming. And all major-league hitters except for Jason Heyward can probably consistently hit a 95 mph fastball if they know it's coming - which, frankly, amazes me. Going back to the bad old days, Kyle Farnsworth could hit, what, 98, but he was still vulnerable to getting lit up when he had nothing but that big straight heat.
Obviously, Chapman's vulnerable to being hit - as we just saw two days ago - but if he were to just abandon the slider completely and do nothing but rear back and throw heat, are major-league hitters good enough that they can sit on a 103 mph fastball consistently? Or could Chapman still be an elite closer simply by virtue of the pure speed of his fastball? And how fast does his fastball have to be for that to be true?
Of course, as a Cub fan, I was feeling the stress, and told my wife to be ready to drive me to the ER if I started feeling chest pains.
See, I still think this is bullshit. I mean, there's objectively no wrong way to root or feel for a team. Yeah, I know I can come off as lecturing, especially in the game chatters, but for me, this is just f'in fun.
This may sound corny or dumb, but whatever. For me, the key to enjoying this year has been watching my son fall in love with baseball. Last year, the Cubs were a very carefree fun, not having expectations, and being exciting and enjoyable to watch; sure, there was some stewing during/after the NLCS but it was so different than 03, or 04, or 07/08. Coming into this season, I was half excited/half dreading. I was not expecting struggles, but I was afraid of how I'd react if they did falter. But then my son starting coming to games, played tball, and turned into the biggest baseball fan seemingly overnight. So I've almost had to temper my reactions; I can't get too excited or to upset no matter what happens. He cried yesterday morning when I told him they'd lost the night before. He's only in kindergarten, so he isn't staying up late for every game. But you can bet he'll be up for any future potential clinching games. So having him, has kept me level headed, and also just forces me to look for the good, fun parts and I'm much more forgiving of #######.
I'm fairly sure you're only allowed to DH for the pitcher. But if you weren't, Hendricks is not a good hitter, his Game 2 single notwithstanding. Hendricks' career regular-season batting line is .099/.135/.106. Although his 3 postseason RBI in 4 career PA almost equal his 4 regular-season RBI in 162 PA.
I think delay is in adjusting the start time for a West Coast versus East Coast opponent.
My guess is 8:00 or 8:30 Central if the Dodgers win, 7:00 if the Nationals do, and that this will be established after tomorrow's game in Washington.
Oops. What made me think otherwise? Stupid AL.
Oh, I get that -- when you've got a kid, it's always and in all things important to set the right example. I don't - so I can wallow in self-aggrandizement of many varied colors as I see fit :-)
For the record, I was mostly trying to be humorous in my eeyoring -- but I'll admit that my mood would have been FAR different in a game 5 of the same sort.
I'm down with the whole 'curses are stupid' and whatnot... but also repeating what I said in the chatter, a 108 year monkey is one hell of a big monkey and I just want to get it off our backs and be done with it. When this illnesss of Cubs fandom seized me in 1984, I just never imagined it would manifest as it did. Sure, sure - even then, I heard all the older Cubs fans talk about it... and as a kid - 39 years/76 years seemed like an eternity. However, now in my 40s -- I've suddenly found myself older than what seemed like an eternity and STILL no friggin title.
It's become for a lot of us, I think - a coping mechanism. Nothing ever stings like your first one - so 1984 is forever seared - but I still remember game 6 in 2003, watching with a bunch of friends at the bar, and (this is NOT about the dude whose name I won't even say because I'm very much among those who find it horrifying how he was demonized) telling my buddy next me on the Alou foul ball "Uh oh... this is how it starts".
Bad habits are tough to break -- and while I could embark on a rigorous course of mental health well-being and wellness... it would all just be easier if the Cubs would just make it happen this year. I am 100% confident I'd be over it for the rest of the my baseball lifetime, even if it leads to another century drought that I only witness as a cyborg.
It's already been pointed out the DH rule specifies batting for the pitcher, but it's a real shame. I would really like to see the occasional game, maybe when Bumgarner starts an interleague game, where someone else gets DH'd for.
In all seriousness, you would not DH for a weak hitter like Gregor Blanco instead of Bumgarner. Blanco had a 67 OPS+ this year, terrible for an outfielder. But Bumgarner, great for a pitcher, had the same OPS+. Bring in career numbers, you can forget about it.
But what if the Giants had Terrance Gore on the roster? Can't hit at all but fast enough to catch anything hit to the outfield, if only there was a way to get him in the outfield. I could definitely see that working.
Yeah, that makes sense I guess. Still, there's no reason they can't just say "7:00 or 8:00 CST" rather than giving no information whatsoever. Would probably help a lot of people.
Talk about wrong.
We talked about it last night in the chatter, but one way or another - he needs to be in the lineup everyday. If he's OK being the Zobrist for a while - that's fine, mix-and-match as Joe will. It's gonna cost him a couple gold gloves, most likely - but be it at 2B or 3B, he's gotta be playing every day. He's just too... well, too "Javier Baez just might..." not to have in the lineup.
BTW - one thing I wanted to note from Theo's champagne-soaked postgame I saw on FSN --
The first question was obviously about Baez and the very first words out of Theo's mouth after the obvious "yeah, he's amazing, isn't he?" was to give Jim Hendry credit for spotting and drafting him. He also made a point of noting that Willson Contreras was also signed under the Hendry regime.
It's a minor thing - and the way the question was framed, it wasn't even necessary for Theo to go there (i.e., the question wasn't "Aren't you amazing for spotting these talents?") - but I really thought that showed an enormous amount of class and why this organization really does seem to work the right way, virtually from top to bottom.
If he had just given a standard spiel about the players, the player, yada yada - I'm not even sure anyone would have noticed... but I can't think I'm the only who notices stuff like that.
The question is what you get in return, and what the short- and long-term prospects are for the result of the trade.
Obviously, the best guys to trade are the ones who are overvalued, but it's not that simple.
This is deconstructed mainstream curse bullshit turned inside out and shoved up its own ass.
I thought at the time Starlin was the wrong choice for the guy to deal, especially for Adam Warren + loose parts in return. I guess I would've traded Baez before Castro, and now I think that was wrong. However, I would've traded Russell before either of them and I spent much of the season fearing the Cubs would be shown to have been burned by choosing to keep Russell. At this point, I think Russell has proven something, and for awhile there he seemed to really have a clutch ability (now ascribable to opportunity and random luck). But ultimately Castro outperformed Russell other than the bum hamstring at the end. I guess it amounted to a small loss in regular season production for a big savings in cash and a healthy IF for the playoffs.
Wait, what?
Castro - 93 OPS+ 1.2 WAR, -8 fielding runs
Russell - 97 OPS+, 4.3 WAR, +19 fielding runs.
In what way did Castro outperform Russell?
Trying to cherry pick here:
HR - tied
RBI - Russell
Runs - Russell
Walks - Russell
BA - Castro
There you go. Castro had a higher batting average.
Edit: Wrong on OPS
Now you're just being an idiot. Castro had MORE PA than Russell.
Not close, in any way shape or form.
EDIT: Even if you didn't know about their relative defensive differences (and you should with how much Russell's been talked up this year) *or* account for the different positions, shouldn't the fact that the Cubs switched their positions last season, immediately got better, and then talked about that difference the last few months or the year/playoffs, at the very least implied that just maybe Russell was a better defender? So that, plus the younger/cheaper part, should have been more than enough to realize why the Cubs would do this, even with being completely wrong/oblivious to any sort of advanced offensive metric (including one as basic as OPS).
Laughably wrong about virtually everything.
Anyway, back to more taxing questions than Castro vs Russell ...
This is something that's long fascinated me. What is the fastball speed at which a major-league pitcher needs no secondary pitches or fancy movement? Obviously, all major-league hitters can hit a straight 90 mph fastball if they know it's coming. And all major-league hitters except for Jason Heyward can probably consistently hit a 95 mph fastball if they know it's coming - which, frankly, amazes me. Going back to the bad old days, Kyle Farnsworth could hit, what, 98, but he was still vulnerable to getting lit up when he had nothing but that big straight heat.
Matt Anderson was highly touted and supposedly sat upper 90s and touching 100. Straight as an arrow, career 89 OPS+ as a reliever ... also wild as heck which hurt a lot, was really his main flaw. (First three years was 235/361/388 against in the sillyball era so not bad other than the OBP but still far from top-flight closer territory based on a quick check.)
As a working template:
Baez -- 120 starts at 2B
Zobrist -- 40 at 2B (nearly all vs RHP); 40 starts in RF (all LHP starts); 40 in LF (120 starts total)
Soler -- 60 starts in LF (incl all LHP starts), probably DH vs LHP
Schwarber -- 60 starts in LF, 30 starts at C, DH vs RHP
Bryant -- everyday 3B
Heyward -- 120 starts vs RHP, mostly RF
Almora and ??? --
Obviously they'd work in some LaStella (or whoever) starts. With Schwarber back, Coghlan doesn't really have a role. There's an extra roster spot in here I think for the ??? so maybe Coghlan does have a fit with Heyward taking 40 or so CF starts vs RHP. And of course there will be injuries that will mess all of this up.
I admit to still being intrigued by the possibility of re-signing Fowler. He'll only be 31, he's averaged a 115 OPS+ over the last 5 years, he was fine defensively this year, we'd have Almora around to caddy for him during the 30-40 games he usually misses or sits. He likes it here, we like him, I haven't heard anything about clubhouse clashes. Good season sentimentality I know and he'll probably get a better offer anyway but I'm not scared about 3 years as much as I used to be.
EDIT: wrong on HR.
Even if Fowler doesn't come back, I think one of Soler or Schwarber is gone. Almora looks ready to be an everyday CF next season. And if Baez is playing nearly every day, that leaves Zobrist/Bryant, Soler, Schwarber, and Heyward to fill two corner outfield spots. Even being willing to slide Heyward into CF for 30-40 games or whatever and getting to use a DH 9 times only frees up so much playing time.
So, how about those Dodgers?
I saw some speculation on Twitter that the Cubs might add a 12th pitcher for the NLCS - because you can never have too many innings where you use 4-6 pitchers (never mind that the last three games I watched saw teams blow late leads using 4, 5, and then 6 pitchers in a single inning; in the long run, using that many pitchers is sure to start working!). That seems unnecessary and/or nuts to me, but what do others think? I see no reason to change the roster. The only reason I could see not doing so is if they're concerned that Hendricks is hurt, I could see maybe trying to add Hammel as an emergency starter. But all indications I've heard are that Hendricks should be fine.
Because it's the dodgers, I can see trying to find a spot for Zastryzny on the roster. One more lefty who can throw a few innings against a team that seemingly can't hit lefties. Reports are starting to surface that Montero's back is acting up so that might be the spot.
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