User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 1.0386 seconds
38 querie(s) executed
|
You are here > Home > Gonfalon Cubs > Discussion
| ||||||||
|
|
BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot TopicsI guess we're still doing this?
(54 - 10:23am, Oct 07) Last: Brian C This all sucks (41 - 11:13pm, Sep 23) Last: Brian C Darvish Trade Rumors (2 - 10:26pm, Dec 28) Last: Swedish Chef Cubs Postseason Thoughts (12 - 12:27pm, Oct 03) Last: Moses Taylor loves a good maim 60 Second Season Preview (84 - 1:01pm, Sep 28) Last: McCoy Being cheap is not a plan (110 - 1:15pm, Jul 03) Last: Moses Taylor loves a good maim Regrets (160 - 10:25pm, Dec 18) Last: Walt Davis Approaching the Finish Line (137 - 11:53pm, Sep 29) Last: Brian C 2019 Season Predictions (164 - 10:45pm, Sep 24) Last: Itchy Row Taking the current temperature (387 - 11:24am, Sep 16) Last: Andere Richtingen That was fun (488 - 5:41pm, Jul 28) Last: Dag Nabbit: Sockless Psychopath Spring Training (86 - 2:15pm, Mar 26) Last: Moses Taylor loves a good maim Now what? (427 - 3:43pm, Feb 07) Last: Voodoo The Final Push (346 - 11:16am, Oct 03) Last: Moses Taylor loves a good maim The Third Third (296 - 6:20pm, Sep 04) Last: Moses Taylor loves a good maim Syndicate |
|||||||
|
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2021 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
| | ||||||
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
The Cubs as a team have basically been good Schwarber against the Reds this year, hitting .254/.356/.485 against them in 354 PAs, with 18 HR. They are 6-3 so far. The pitching hasn't been so great but they haven't faced them in awhile. I agree that they need to show them who's boss.
That said, if you want to get a power hitter back on track, Cinci with their 85 ERA+ and team 1.7 HR/9 is the staff to pit him against so hopefully Schwarber will find a groove.
Until Russell's back, I realize the 2B options are slim and none of Zobrist, Happ, LaStella are great options there. God only knows what happens if Baez gets hurt -- what's Brendan Ryan up to these days?
Also I know Javy has a history of getting wild when he moves up the order but under the circumstances, I think we have to try. That middle of Zo, Kyle, Avila, Heyward is just awful. Might also be time to bat the pitcher 8th again, putting a decent OBP bat 9th (Zo?) so that we can get some runners on ahead of Bryant and Rizzo.
To wit -- Bryant reached base 13 times that series, scored just 3 runs, one driving in himself. He also drove in just 4. For that matter, over the last 9, it's 24 times on base and just 5 runs. We've either got to get better production behind Bryant/Rizzo or more runners on in front of them. Byrant has hit 294/405/530 and he's on pace for less than 75 RBI (but over 100 scored).
I have no idea what a typical ratio would be but (per his splits) 123 of his 251 runners have come with 2 outs. In those 86 PA, he's got 16 hits, 14 BB and 3 HBP vs just 14 Ks. The line's not awesome at 232/384/406 but it's hardly terrible.
That should be CHC 4, PIT 3 (15). I was thinking wow, that must have been some error.
I don't mean to be a concern troll, but aren't you guys in first place?
Bryant RISP: .230/.346/.448, 23K in 107PA
Bryant no men on: .310/.418/.585, 59K in 294PA
Now, I assume most players have somewhat similar splits, but is that more extreme than average? I don't know.
In high leverage chances per bb-ref, he's hitting .130/.287/.203 in 87 PA; in close & late, he's hitting .200/.384/.345. Again, how much worse than average is that; IOW, is his dropoff in those situations worse than most? I'd guess so.
FG has a clutch stat, and FWIW, Bryant is easily the worst this year in that stat. That's just what it *feels* like watching him. Like last night, he's on this amazing run and comes up with the bases loaded and 1 out and he pops out to short CF, not even deep enough to score the runner on 3rd with Billy Hamilton's arm to run on. It's probably just a fluke, but it's been an annoying one this year.
I don't think there is disagreement. He frames it a little differently than just winning the division.
We keep hoping the 2017 Cubs will show some of that 2016 magic. They will need to find a higher level if they're going to be a dangerous team in the playoffs. If the postseason started today the Cubs would be there but there is no feeling (for me) that they would actually compete. Since they're entering a soft stretch in the schedule we would hope to see them do more than limp along.
The focus is on the regular season, and strength of schedule. The "Crucial Time" refers to the just completed 15-game stretch mostly against teams with winning records (MIL, SF, ARI on the road; WAS and ARI at home) in which they went 7-8 -- this is where the wheels could have fallen off, but they didn't. Now it's "Now or Never." They have a very weak schedule the rest of the season, facing intradivision rivals who trail them in a weak division, and otherwise pretty weak teams. If they don't pull it off, they weren't good enough.
At this point, I think LaStella might be the best option at 2b (or he can spot start at 3rd and Bryant slide into the OF depending on which underachiever you're sitting that day). It's only 327PA, but in his 3 years as a Cub TLS is hitting .280/.366/.426*, which is a bit better than anything we've getting offensively from the Zobrist/Heyward/Schwarber axis of suck. Defensively, I don't see a significant difference between him, Zobrist, and Happ at 2nd.
Heyward -- still fine, the glove is still excellent, his bat could be hidden if everybody else was hitting they way they should
But everybody else isn't, so it's currently a problem. With Russell out, Maddon should be doing a lot more mixing of the axis of suck and stop playing multiple of them at the same time (it's especially awful when all 3 are in there together, which is the most common occurrence). Like I said above, give Almora more CF time, which moves Jay to LF** and you can live with a RF rotation of Zobrist/Heyward/Bryant (with TLS at 3rd or Baez there when Russell is back); I'd say the overall OF defense is better when it's Jay/Almora/whoever than Schwarber/Jay/Heyward no matter how brilliant Heyward is in RF. Happ can start 3 or so times a week, mixed in at various spots***. Zobrist/Heyward shouldn't start more than Happ IMO.
I'm fine giving Schwarber this series as a last shot, and while it was nice he got on 3 times last night that was more about the Reds pitching than him; he still is having major problems timing and squaring up just about every type of pitch.
*How much of that is because he's only played in small doses (even though Joe does like to start him against the better pitchers)
**I think both Jay and Happ are currently below average CF; I think Happ has the tools to be a decent one with more experience.
***Or send him down to play everyday
By 1.5 measly games over a poor (IMO) Cardinals team, with a not quite ready Brewers right on their tail and the Pirates still in the picture. No one expected this to be a close race, and the Cubs haven't made any sort of extended run this year except for right after the AS break. Yeah, I want them to win the division, but it's going to be pretty ####### empty if they do and just get swept out in the NLDS. Maybe it really just is the Dodgers' year, but coming into the season we sure expected it to be a competitive playoffs.
He managed to get hit in both feet.
In all honesty, does it (obviously in the playoffs, but haven't we seen enough hot teams in September do nothing come October)?
It's not about a hot streak, it's about the Cubs turning into the great team we expected them to be, beating up on the bad teams like they did last year. If they have a hot streak at the end of the season, it could simply be a hot streak. If the Cubs turn into a dominating team now and play that way through the rest of the season, they're more likely to be a force in the playoffs because it's more evidence to suggest they're a great team than a random hot streak or two would. To be pedantic, I never asked for a hot streak.
Yet, they could still playing this game the rest of the year, back into the division, and turn into a great team in October. It's not likely, but that's always still possible.
Realizing it's tangential to your point about Bryant, doesn't Hamilton have a pretty good arm?
Maybe, but Burr had a gun.
"dominating stretches over the next few weeks" sounds like a hot streak to me. But from your clarification, I think you meant more of excellent playing over the rest of the season, rather than the next few weeks in particular.
They're in first place, but they have three teams within striking distance, all of which have had recent stretches of good play, except one (Milwaukee, 2.5 GB), which spent about half the season in first place. I think it's best to assume that the Cubs need to play well from here on out in order to win the division. Fangraphs currently has them going 27-17 the rest of the season (.604), which doesn't leave them room for much of a bad stretch, and would get them to 89 wins.
This. And what better options are there?
1. Adbert Alzolay, RHP
2. Victor Caratini, C/1B
3. Oscar de la Cruz, RHP
4. Jose Albertos, RHP
5. Thomas Hatch, RHP
6. Aramis Ademan, SS
7. Alex Lange, RHP
8. Brendon Little, LHP
9. Mark Zagunis, 3B
10. D.J. Wilson, CF
Plus the fact he's using his real name as his nickname on his jersey for that players weekend thing - Ryan - and this quote after pitching last night:
####, I'm a Scooter Gennett fan now.
I'm not creative to come up with Adbert. I also would have had to sneak in a Scooter. I am happy with the possibility for another Aramis.
Come on, everyone knows that's a Scott Adams character. I believe he was an incompetent marketing exec.
Dag?
Jay/Almora/Heyward is a solid defensive OF and no worse offensively than what we've been trotting out. Mix Happ in there and at 2B. I do like the idea of some TLS at 3B and Bryant in the OF (I should have thought of that!)
On "crucial" and "now or never" -- well, y'know, a good headline sells. :-) Mostly explained above but the earlier stretch was "crucial" because it was against other potential playoff teams. Coming off a hot streak where we finally wedged our way into first place, it was a test of just how good this team is right now. We could have folded and dropped out of first again or we could have romped and we'd be thinking maybe 2016 or at least 2015 was here again. Instead we muddled suggesting our record is a fair reflection of our quality.
"Now or never" I take as more the notion that if we're going to win the division reasonably easily, it's now or never -- crap teams on the schedule, time for another run like the one coming out of the break. Sure, a hot streak at any time over the next 6 weeks may do the trick. But given the quality of the competition over the next couple of weeks, this is the most likely time to pad the win column. So I'm hoping for something like 12-6 over the next 3 weeks and a 4-game lead in early Sept. That will reduce my nervous tension.
As to the playoffs -- I'm now pretty much resigned to relying on the crapshoot. I didn't think we were as good as the Dodgers but I thought we might (underneath it all) really be at least as good as the Nats and certainly better than Rox/DBacks. That "crucial" stretch did kinda convince me that this just ain't our year in terms of enough cylinders firing right, that we're probably further off the Dodgers than I thought and nothing special relative to the WC teams. And, oy, bullpen troubles again. Doesn't mean we can't get lucky/hot at the right time but at this point I'll be happy/relieved if we can go on a nice run here and at least open a mildly comfy divisional lead. So it's "now or never" in terms of reducing my stress.
11. Brooks Villanueva, RHP/C/OF
12. Shawon Rindflesch, SS
13. Scooter Semple-McPherson, 2B
14. Arismendy Rizzo, 1B
15. Domingo Lento, SS
16. Wayne Schmetterling, LHP
17. Ron Menchot, 3B
18. Roosevelt Caracol, C
19. D.J. Stinkendfurz, RHP
20. Eloy Torpe, DH
Bryant 3.3
(Contreras) 2.1
Rizzo 1.8
(Avila 1.2 ... 0.0 with the Cubs so far)
(Russell) 1.1
Heyward 0.8
Baez 0.6
Happ 0.3
La Stella 0.2
Jay 0.2
Almora 0.0
Zobrist -1.0
Schwarber -1.3
That's 11 players average or better, granted two on the DL right now and not expected back anytime soon. We have little choice but to give some PT to Zobrist and Schwarber (and Caratini) but it should probably be as little as possible. Joe went almost an entire season carrying Jonathan Herrera on a very short bench and gave him just 132 PA, he can do it again.
Those top guys (not including Avila but including Contreras and Russell) are credited with 10.4 WAA which is just behind the non-P WAA of the Dodgers at 11.2, #1 in the NL. That's cheating a bit, obviously the PA eaten up by Z, S and the various bits of Zagunis, Caratini, etc. have to be accounted for somewhere ... but quite possibly if we just trot out that main lineup the rest of the year, they'll keep performing at that level (minus Russell and Contreras, add Avila and Caratini obviously).
And while none of us like relying too much on DRS, Heyward does have the most WAA of any of our OF and has been about 2 WAA/WAR better than Schwarber and Zobrist have been.
Edit: 8th inning, down 1, 2 on and 1 out. Pop up to the 2b in short CF.
Gotta figure it's one of those weird one-season things, but it's just more amplified because half of the regulars are kinda dog ####.
That's pretty cool.
Speaking only for myself, I wouldn't say I was upset or disappointed so much as I just felt kind of bad for Renteria. I think he did a nice job in 2014, and he'd gotten a commitment to continue, though I absolutely think the Cubs did what they needed to do when the opportunity presented itself; it's not Renteria's fault he's not Joe Maddon, or that Maddon became available when he did. I think I said at the time that it was a bit ruthless on the Cubs' part, but that it was about frigging time they got ruthless in their pursuit of a championship or four, and I still feel that way. I'm glad Renteria's getting another chance, and I hope the Sox are patient enough with the inevitable losing that comes from a full-on rebuild that Renteria can still be there when they get good.
Yep. Ain't gonna win no championships if you've got ruth.
Well, I guess the Yankees did.
Harry Frazee endorses this sentiment.
I was watching him pretty closely last night, and in the game chatter it was mentioned that they talked about Hendricks pinpoint control after the game. IMO, he was hitting Caratini's glove pretty consistently, and so I'm wondering now if part of the reason Hendricks had so many walks had anything to do with how Caratini was setting up and receiving the ball. I don't know enough to know how that will influence the umpire's strike zone - and it was a pretty small zone most of the night and I don't think any of the pitchers got the benefit of the doubt on borderline calls - but it does make me wonder/assume this is the stuff they've talked about and why they were hesitant to play him.
Also talked about it in the chatter, but why is Justin Wilson so bad?
Yeah, he's been kind of terrible. Allowed runs in 4 of his 6 Cub appearances.
Losing is a disease as contagious as polio.
Losing is a disease as contagious as syphilis.
Losing is a disease as contagious as bubonic plague.
Attacking one but infecting all.
A mix of bad luck and bad pitching?
He's given up nine hits and five walks in 5.1 IP, so that's terrible. But he's struck out five, and the nine hits consist of seven singles and two doubles.
He's made 48 appearances this year, and given up runs in twelve of them; his overall numbers are pretty good: 45.2 IP, 2.96 ERA, 31 H, 21 BB, 60 K, 5 HR. If he gives up a run in an appearance one in every four appearances, the static probability of him giving up a run in four of six starts is about 3.4%. At some point over 48 appearances, it is not unlikely that that will happen.
I think he's a very good reliever, but not a great one, having a bad stretch like you often see happen. Watching him, I think overall he has looked pretty good.
It's doesn't *feel* that way, does it? It's a lot more bumpy, and 39Ks in 90ABs is pretty poor (.171/.295/.378 with 75Ks in 222AB).
I've had the opposite impression, that he's looked pretty mediocre. 5 K in 5.1 IP doesn't sound too bad, but when he's giving up as many hits and walks as he has, it means the percentage of hitters that he's striking out overall is pretty low - indeed, his K% is half of what it was in Detroit. He's not getting lucky, that's for sure, but he's clearly struggling to get people out.
High-strikeout pitchers like him go through stretches of shaky command, it's true. But they usually don't stop striking people out like he has. Not only has his K/9 dipped since arriving but, like I said, his overall K% has flat-out cratered. It's a problem. It's probably not worth panicking over yet, but at the same time we're talking six games, all of which have been basically the same. That's more than the occasional bad outing or two (or three!) that distinguishes the good-not-great relievers from the actual-great ones. Even during Edwards's recent bout of flamability, he never put anything close to six bad appearances together like this.
I just don't think "he looks fine" is a good description of what's going on. It's borderline counterfactual, honestly. His stuff plainly isn't all that great at the moment. If it was, he'd still be getting the Ks even if his command was a little off and some grounders were snaking through.
was a fanatical Phillies fan. I thought 1980 would be her pinnacle. she said, kind of, but had a mild lament that being the last of the original 16 teams to win a WS kind of made them less special.
I didn't get it then and I don't get it now - but I followed Cubs threads here religiously last year (and for many reasons, rooted hard for them). now? I doubt I'll revisit this thread. the Cubs are just another good team now.
and no, I don't ask anyone to trade in their 2016 joy.
:)
just funny how life is
1907 Christy Mathewson allows his only extra-inning HR: Johnny Kling, Cub in top of 12th. CHC 3, NYG 2 (12). Mathewson vs. M. Brown
1932 CHC 3, BOB 2 (19) - longest game of the year
1940 Billy Herman grounds into 3 GIDP in one game. 0-for-5 w/ 1 BB. CHC 6, PIT 5
1960 Ernie Banks hits the 1st of 4 walkoff HR (off Don Drysdale). Solo shot, tied 0-0 in bottom of 9th
1971 2,000 hits: Billy Williams: 1,751 games
1985 Philies hit 4 HR in 7th inning: Samuel, Wilson, Schmidt, Daulton. First 3 in a row. Daulton & Schu hit consecutive HRs in 4th vs CHC
1995 10,000th HR in Cub franchise history hit by Sammy Sosa
What's the evidence that it's not? His velocity has been normal, and to my eye, his pitches have mostly shown good movement. The problem is that they are moving out of the strike zone, or into the middle of it, or batters are getting just enough that they make decent contact. Again, we are talking about a very small number of appearances.
In no way can you judge anything about his K rate over five games.
As much criticism as Schwarber has (rightfully) taken this year, I really feel Zobrist's awfulness has completely gone under the radar. He's at .223/.314/.354; while he has some surprisingly decent defensive numbers, to my eyes he's been poor in the field and there's a clearly superior defender at each of his positions (Baez 2b, Heyward RF, Jay LF). Yet, he's hit either 1st or 4th in all but 7 of his starts (5x 5th and 1x each 2nd and 6th). I know he's had the wrist problem, which has supposedly impacted him the most hitting RH (.165/.258/.291; he's also been worse in the 2nd half than in the first even though his BABIP has gone up - so maybe there's an argument he's been unlucky lately); however he's now clearly the worst player getting regular time (so that excludes only Caratini). Going back to earlier in the thread, Heyward at least has his defense and baserunning to fall back on; Zobrist doesn't.
It's time to bench Zobrist.
Six games, in all of which he struggled to get hitters out.
And ... eh. His K rate over six games is more reliable than how he "looks" to you, which is the sole piece of evidence you've put forth.
And he's only been playing in RF once a week over the last 3-4 weeks. So really, he's just a second baseman for them. Clearly, Baez is the better defensive second baseman -- but he's been playing shortstop with Russell on the shelf.
I guess they could give Happ more time at second. He's certainly hitting better than Zobrist. By defensive metrics, Zobrist is doing a lot better by Total Zone Rating & range factor (obviously range factor isn't a great stat - but I have no problem using it here given that we're talking about guys fielding behind the same pitchers). BIS stuff has them essentially even, with a slight edge to Happ.
If you go by TZR stuff, Zo's defensive edge might be enough to offset Happ's better bat. But I'm always a bit more cautious with defensive metrics.
Yeah, I'd like to see Zobrist get less playing time. Mostly I just hope Russell is ready to return to the lineup sooner instead of later.
My eyes aren't agreeing with Zo's defensive numbers, so perhaps he's just doing a better job of positioning/instincts/veterany type stuff than Happ. I haven't been impressed with Happ at 2b, and he's spent a lot more time in CF anyway. I only brought up LF because for a while, you could have argued he should be playing there ahead of Schwarber.
EDIT: I'd say the reason he hasn't played more 2b the last couple of seasons were because Zobrist and Baez were (rightfully, most of the time) ahead of him on the depth chart. Now I'm saying he should move ahead of Zo. When Russell comes back, that'll mean more moving time around, with Zobrist still the one who should end up with the shortest straw.
I guess one shouldn't be too disappointed when your team gets behind nine runs, and loses. But hitting six HR and then losing (you can look up the last time that happened) -- that is disappointing.
No. This take surprises me.
Well, just based on my own eye test, but a quick scan of the BR numbers backs me up. Sample size issues given his lack of time in the field, but still.
The Lester thing is scary, especially since Quintana has been pretty much continued his down year since arriving (outside of his first start). Obviously they're better off with him than they would be without, but now the rotation is in pretty much the exact same state as it was before he got here.
At least Arrieta's been solid lately.
Last time the Cubs did it? You may have heard of it. It was also a windy day at Wrigley Field. Also a big comeback that was all for naught.
Last time any team did it? Also a Chicago team.
So they must have been thinking TJ if back this season is good news. Sheesh.
Oh man, I remember that game. Some good banter between Steve Stone and Harry Caray about whether or not the Cubs had scored that many runs in Caray's lifetime.
I had totally forgotten Lee 1) got traded 2) played for the Braves. The end came quickly for Lee, but he was a real joy to watch for a bit there.
Everyone says no structural damage but that definitely gives me the heebie jeebies in a way that "strained lat" did not.
I can't find the tweet now, but I guess Theo also had a quote saying Lester's had this before and didn't think this was as bad as last time. But yeah, should fatigue is a icky phrase.
Happ's 20th will break these team records.
I'm too young to have really appreciated Gaetti at his peak, but I freaking loved the guy during his brief run with the Cubs, even though looking at the stats, he was pretty dreadful in his only full season with them.
Such a seemingly benign signing when it happened. There was a very brief stretch where his supposed versatility was bailing out the Cubs' injury problems, but oof, remembering that he and Corey Patterson were in front of Derrek Lee most of 2005 reminds you how Lee managed so few RBI despite crushing nearly 50 homers.
This is one of those "I remember where I was when I heard about this" moments for me. Man, those were some good chips and queso.
He was pretty good for the Cubs down the stretch in '98, including a big home run in the Game 163 Playoff against the Giants. Then in a move that was very Cubbish at the time, instead of thanking him for his service and moving on, they decided to bring him back for the 99 season, and he was terrible.
That all for Victor Caratini this year?
I dunno, I don't remember it that way. The way I remember it, he was signed to a minor league deal, right? And there was some, "oh it's just a minor league deal, maybe he won't even end up playing" but for the most part we all knew where that was going to lead.
That 2005 really was special. He managed to combine being a terrible hitter with not striking out very much, and as a result managed to combine a 75 OPS+ with grounding into the third-most double plays in the NL.
Still, thanks to his defense, bWAR managed to like him more than any Cubs position player aside from Lee and Aramis.
Well, I know what will be a major entry on the August 19 retrospective in coming years!
Until the rosters expand.
Ah yes. The infamous Piss-Poor™ 1-2 "punch."
Yeah, I was pissed.
*.371/.400/.548 but only 67PAs.
Baez getting hurt would be catastrophic. Mike Freeman looks like he'd get the promotion from the minors if it happened, and he'd almost have to be the everyday guy until either Baez or Russell got back, just by default.
I know the Cubs are fortunate to have two good options at SS - that's pretty rare - but the dropoff after them is huge.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main