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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Wednesday, October 03, 2018Now what?I’m hungover and at work. This is probably going to be an incoherent mess. I probably will end up disagreeing with some or all of this, probably sooner than later. However, might as well start thinking about how the Cubs are going to approach this offseason. The easy route is making some small changes around the edges - maybe splurge on a reliever or two, bring a couple more long shot rebound types - and talk about being healthier and improving from within. There’s probably some merit to that, and it very well could work. They could burn it all down - fire Maddon, make a couple big, splashy trades, and spend a ton of money in FA. Maybe there’s some merit to that too, but that still would be an overreaction. I expect them to do something in between (wow, really going out on a ledge here, aren’t I), but it still very likely will be more turnover than we’ve been used to lately. So, let’s break it up by area. Coaching Staff Hitters I think the Cubs need a new backup catcher. I’m actually ok with Caratini, but they need someone that can give Contreras a lot more rest. Whether that’s a coaching thing that Joe just won’t play him, or a real reason they don’t like him getting regular appearances, they can’t expect Willson to play this much again and be worth anything with his bat. I still hope that for Contreras, he just needs more rest and he’ll be fine. The Cubs need a fulltime 2b and CF, but it very well could be those spots continue to be a rotation of in house guys (Almora/Happ/Zobrist/Bote/Heyward). I can live with that (and Heyward getting most of the starts in RF) if they add a big bat elsewhere. However, I have a suspicion that Cubs add someone else from the outside to fill one of those spots. I like the idea of Bote and Zobrist as bench regulars who each start a few times a week, but think the Cubs are better if neither are counted on to start 140ish times (Zobrst, just due to his age, can’t really be expected to be this good again in this much PT). Bottom line, I think the Cubs end up with 2 new starting position players and a different looking bench. Pitchers Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:27 AM | 427 comment(s)
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IDK... with larger bullpens, the idea of a 'true' PH specialist has certainly waned, but once upon a time - baseball did have a fair number of guys who seemed to perform better as PHers than they did in regular roles... Smoky Burgess, Cliff Johnson, Thad Bosley, Greg Gross, others I'm forgetting.
TLS likely makes an ideal PH -- fairly low K rate, but doesn't walk a ton. Likely to get a PH call post-pitching change to lock him into a favorable matchup. Not a ton of power, so he's not going to get nibbled around.
I'd be willing to suspect that TLS is actually one of the last remaining of the endangered species: A true PH specialist who is actually very well-suited and overperforms his true talent in that niche role.
Some of the quotes that are getting pulled for other stories:
I hear #Cubs asst GM Shiraz Rehman is leaving to take an asst GM job with the #Rangers.
Does he have a kid and if so is the kid's name Petit Sirah?
Calling out millennials like that though - while I'm sure it felt good - it's not the type of thing that's going to endear him to his next employer/students. It's hard not to sound like an old fogey if you're an old fogey.
The FO was probably telling Chili to fix it and Chili was probably putting the blame on the pitchers adjusting and his hitters not accepting what he was telling them.
I worked IN a Chili's and we sang it drive the manager nuts also.
He initially lauded our corporate branding enthusiasm. That was a mistake.
Nicer in that we did BBQ and fajitas not in that we emulated their need for flair.
Uh...
Unless of course it's the White Sox. :-) If they don't make progress next year, they will probably look for somebody new ... and if they do make progress, they might decide the time is right to switch from the "developing" manager to the "winning" manager.
Yeah, I've seen more compelling defenses.
I've seen both Hyde (assuming he doesn't get another job this offseason and he's been interviewing) and Venable called future Cubs managers. I'd honestly expect one of them to get it if (when?) the Cubs and Maddon mutually part ways next offseason. I agree that I don't see them going after Girardi, and even less so signaling to him it'd be worth putting off other chances.
Hell, I'd prefer to start negotiating one now.
Sure, he's had the players - but the Cubs have won 97, 103, 92, and 95 games under his watch - plus 3 NLCS appearances and a title.
I've seen little - verging on zero - indicating clubhouse strife or players who don't want to play for him or are glad to be gone. He hasn't seemed to me to be a party to any awesomely bad ideas or bad tactical decision making beyond the bog standard stuff any manager would draw complaints over.
So far as I'm concerned, he ought to be back until something indicates his time is up... and I've seen nothing like that yet.
1. Trade Quintana & sign Corbin
2. Sign Andrew Miller
3. Some guessed they'd sign Machado; others said no offer to Machado or Harper
4. Cubs sign Donaldson, trade Schwarber and move KB to left
5. Schwarber traded for a leadoff hitter
6. Theo/Jed demand Maddon have a more set batting order & lineup
7. One guy specifically mentions Schwarber for Merrifield
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/podcast-bold-predictions-cubs-offseason-harper-mlb-hot-stove-machado-merrifield-schwarber-corbin
This is a meaningless statement. I mean I fully support trading Schwarber for Cain assuming no unicorns are available.
Anyway, by "leadoff hitter" I assume we mean somebody with a good OBP, limited SLG, maybe some speed ... let's see who might qualify ...
Votto, Cain, Altuve (we'll probably have to send them Russell instead :-), Zobrist (excellent trade target), Choo (younger than Zobrist!), McCutchen (didn't expect him to have a 358 OBP), Merrifield (I support Schwarber for Merrifield), Mallex Smith (hey, nice season), Benintendi, Markakis, Brantley, Matt Duffy (72 ISO, just what we need), Brian Anderson (Marlins, cheap), Josh Bell, Cesar Hernandez ... Schwarber ... Wendle (Tampa, cheap), Carlos Santana, Mauer (old as Choo!)
So all we have to do is convince one of the cheap teams to give up a good, cost-controlled player that plays 2B or CF in exchange for the arb-eligible Schwarber ... or sign one of the FAs McCutchen (not particularly interested except maybe for 1 year), Choo (definitely not interested), Markakis (definitely not interested) or Brantley (I never know) to hopefully put up an OBP as good as Schwarber's. Probably the most realistic option here would be something like Russell for Cesar Hernandez. (The last thing the Phils need is Schwarber.)
Anyway, props to Mallex Smith who always seemed interesting to me (it's the name!) and who slipped under my radar. Mid-season his OPS was around 680 but he raised it nearly 100 points by going 326/402/464 in the 2nd half while playing average defense across the OF (average or better career in CF). Not the sort of guy Tampa usually trades away ... but maybe it makes them willing to move Kiermaier who wouldn't do much for our leadoff position but would help the defense.
Theo/Jed demand Maddon have a more set batting order & lineup
Why in the world would they do that? Did they accidentally build a deep, versatile lineup? Such an edict immediately reduces the value Zo and Happ, doesn't help Bryant or Baez. As is, basically Rizzo and Bryant start every day they are healthy and this year Baez pretty much did too. Only that last is somewhat uncertain but it will be certain if Russell is moved and pretty darn likely even if he isn't. Contreras has a pretty standard starting C's workload in the end after being over-worked in the first half. Once he arrived, Murphy was in there pretty much every day. That leaves the mediocre OF and ... what, he was supposed to play Heyward and Schwarber against LHP?
God only knows if Chili deserves credit but 302/366/454 out of the leadoff spot with a 354 BABIP sounds like what he was hired to do. Main leadoff batters:
Almora 213 PA 333/368/429 (really?)
Zobrist 140 PA 285/371/439
Rizzo 138 PA 328/428/552
Murphy 131 PA 312/336/504
So we don't need a leadoff hitter and we also see the horrors of the unstable lineup ... or that having a good leadoff hitter doesn't actually set you up for runs the way we're told it does.
Cub by batting order
1 302/366/454/819
2 304/354/514/868 (the table is fully set!)
3 268/352/420/772 (Javy 368/394/600 in 99 PA ... this is on Bryant and, sigh, Heyward)
4 271/338/457/795 (Javy 298/344/636 in 131 PA ... this is mostly on Rizzo and Contreras (ugh))
5 236/332/374/706 (we have met the enemy ... Willson was fine here but Schwarber, Baez, Happ all stunk)
6 245/337/389/726 (Kyle did fine in 290 PA, no other individual spent much time here but they mostly stunk)
7 238/317/360/667 (that's still a league-average OBP if we ignore park effects)
8 263/345/428/773 (that looks really good for #8)
NL average 247/318/403 ... Wrigley PF of 105/107
8 263/345/428/773 (that looks really good for #8)
Does this include pitchers? Cause the Cubs did that for a bit this year.
---
Heyward, Rizzo, and Baez (2b) are all gold glove finalists. I don't think Javy gets extra credit for also being a plus at SS and 3b, so he probably doesn't win. Other 2 could very well win.
Yes, for 107 PAs. Plus 23 from Gimenez and 1 from Gore -- that's nearly 20% of all #8 PAs. It also includes PHs, flip-flops, etc. All told, Bote, Schwarber, Bryant, Zo, Contreras, TLS, Javy and Happ all posted 900+ OPS in that slot comprising 263 PAs. The top PA guy was actually Heyward and that's when he had his little renaissance (287/367/426). Caratini and Russell both had nearly 800 OPS in that slot. Almora was the only regular who stunk there (600 in 30 PA).
Bote at #8: 471/600/941 in 25 PAs.
And, other than Hendricks (1 for 22), even the Ps got into the act a bit. Hamels was 3 for 21 with a HR and a BB; Quintan 4 for 18; Lester, Monty, Mills and Chatwood combined for 5 for 36, 3 RBI and a BB.
Or of course not wanting to steal the headlines from the Fielding Bible awards.
Frankly, I'd probably just exercise the option - not because I fear a Rangers grievance, but just because I think I'd rather have Hamels on a one-year deal than a multiyear deal.
If his resurgence is real, great - we get one more year of it. If it's not, we've got enough pitchers with contracts to wait out - or possibly nearing the point of needing to be waited out. Jon Lester had a pretty nice year after a rough patch and the Cubs have gotten good value from that signing already - but he's not getting any longer and anything more they get out of him could well be gravy... but he's still got 27.5 mil, 20 mil and 10 mil buyout left.
The Cubs don't need anymore multiyear deals on SPs at the moment - well, except extending Hendricks. They need the ones they have under contract - looking at you guys especially, Darwood - not to be vortexes of suck and injury.
Maybe he'll bounce back a little next year, but I sure as #### ain't looking forward to it. It's gonna be hard enough trying to dump Chatwood, and they'll probably just have to eat Duensing's $3.5mil. Those three right there (in 2019) is half a year of Harper. And 3 roster spaces the Cubs can't really afford to waste - maybe 1, sure.
The Cubs are stuck with him - I suppose you could sunk cost release him, but I'd be a bit loathe to do that believe it or not... at minimum, I at least run him out there in spring training and hope he looks like a good buy low if you pick up some money candidate to some rotation-desperate team.
The only other option I can think of is maybe pare back his repertoire and see if you CAN make a reliever out of him. Pick out two pitches, get him to focus on throwing them for strikes, and see if that works.
The problem is that I think his best pitch is that HIGH SPIN RATE!!!! fastball/cutter... and that's the one he can't seem to throw for strikes.
What the Cubs really need is a multi-team challenge trade or - a trade with several pieces in several deals... Since the Yankees can just non-tender him, Sonny Gray isn't really a very good option - and obviously, that still leaves you an extra SP... it's hard - without a corresponding move - to even stash someone like an Ellsbury without moving a Schwarber/Happ/Almora.
One possible option - though, I'm on record being fine penciling Happ in at 2B - how about Jason Kipnis?
The Indians would like to move him -- he bounced back a little bit from his awful 2017 - but he's still overpaid at about 15 million, plus a 2020 option with a 3-5 mil buyout.
Of course, the Indians don't need a SP - so you'd probably have to get someone else involved.
The game is afoot!
Hmm...
Importantly, Mr. Field picked up an inning of relief for the Rays this year, 1 IP, 0 H, 1 BB so ... Kintzler insurance. His 78 OPS+ and righty bat make him the perfect platoon partner for Heyward.
On Chatwood ... let's wait until next spring before we fire him into the sun. He'd gotten decent results with a bad walk rate before it went crazy last year -- unless he's Ankiel, it can't be that hard to get the BB rate back down to a lousy 4.5 at which point he's worth holing onto until the full rotation survives the spring and he proves he'd be a disaster in relief. Of course if some team is foolish enough to eat a useful chunk of his contract or there's a mistake-for-mistake trade that makes some sense, do that.
Hmm.
They could trade Zobrist and save some or all of his $12.5 million but that feels like something the Cubs would not do.
Chatwood, Kintzler, and Duensing make up $21mil. Russell is projected to get about $4mil. That's a pretty huge chunk of money that I'm sure they'd like to not have right now; moving just one non-Chatwood really isn't moving the needle. Heyward has a limited no-trade, but it's hard to say for sure if it's really worth it to eat a huge chunk of his deal to be rid of him. It's probably too soon to move Darvish.
True, at least not for the bigger deals. Maybe - MAYBE - later in FA if teams miss out on their targets, they might be more inclined into talking themselves into taking on Kintzler or even Chatwood, especially if they're cheaper than what their equivilents on the FA market went for. But that's mostly just hope, and it's not doing anything now for Hamels' option or any top FA targets the Cubs might be after.
Huh.
Smyly makes $7mil, but counts $5mil against the tax. So it's a small saving. But yeah, he would be completely redundant.
Sure but the Cubs have to then replace those players. The Cubs don't have a Kris Bryant or Javy Baez sitting in the minors who can be called up, be productive, and make the minimum.
In addition to McCoy's point, he's claimed ever since the season was over he wanted to stay in Chicago. Perhaps he would have preferred an extension with more guaranteed money - his agent said as much - but I don't see anything here for him to be upset about.
I’m guessing the Cubs knew what it would take to do a two year deal with Hamels and told the Rangers that if they didn’t help Chicago clear payroll for the $20 million hit in 2019 they would decline the option and sign the new deal.
Possibly, so they're basically getting Smyly for $1mil with the Cubs already having paid for most of the rehab costs. Officially there is a PTBNL from each team in the deal, so we'll see.
So Olney's tweet, for what it is worth, would seem to indicate the Cubs might be sitting out the Harper/Machado sweepstakes. That's somewhat disappointing, but it's certainly not necessary for them to land a superstar and then deal with the dominoes that would fall after that.
The other point is that it's based on other teams' feelings, so who knows how much there is to that. It's just that, plus the way Robothal worded his (which was accurate, since the option/Smyly deal are linked), was the first real rumors about the Cubs spending or not.
Mooney at the athletic. I'm already calling bullshit to this growing narrative of "financial concerns". Choosing not to spend is not a concern, it's a decision.
There's an alternate, more optimistic, way to view this: That the Smyly dump wasn't because they couldn't have afforded Hamels without it, but because they wanted to be able to both afford Hamels and still have enough budget room to pursue Harper (or Machado, I guess, although Harper seems the more obvious target). And $7 million (Smyly's 2019 salary) is a pretty high price for a guy who would have gone into spring training as the Cubs' #7 starter with a chance to fall even further.
repeated for hilarity
Floating this as a trial balloon to gauge the reaction or backlash? Either way, ugh
BN puts the Cubs at about $226mil right now with the arb estimates and after the Hamels/Smyly moves. For the Cubs to really make noise in FA, they kinda need to make Chatwood/Duensing disappear (and maybe Kintzler, plus any money saved in dealing arb guys like Russell and whichever of Schwarber/Happ gets moved if they signed Harper is going to matter; in total that's about $29mil).
Mooney:
He could have named his dogs "Mystique" and "Aura".
But look on the bright side - this means you will get a couple of special winter treats:
1) I can now focus on what's REALLY important... praising to high heaven every micro-transaction around some 4A minor league FA signing and spring NRI. And damning every other one.
2) Time to restart another OOTP dynasty team... You know you want to hear how I ingeniously got out from under Heyward's contract or foisted Chatwood off onto the Cardinals... or how I got both Griffey and Bonds and it didn't really cost us that much.
One route could be Josh Donaldson. His STEAMER projection is pretty decent, but there's a lot of question marks. He definitely would be a lot cheaper, and on a shorter contract. He's a pretty big risk (depending on what you think of his injuries/health), but potentially a huge reward. It would mean moving Bryant to the OF - either LF and trade Scwharber or RF with Heyward/Almora getting a CF platoon. I could get behind this option if the price is right, but would rather hold onto Schwarber in this scenario.
Another route would be Andrew McCutchen. Like Donaldson, he's going to end up signing for a lot less than maybe he'd hoped a few years ago, but his questions center more on his defense/possible decline than health. He should be a corner OF, and probably would be better in LF than RF, though you wonder if the Cubs would try and squeeze him into CF and hope positioning/smaller park help him out. If you put him in a corner, you have the same shuffling options I talked about with Donaldson. I think I could get behind this one too, assuming he's in RF.
In both of these options, the IF shake out would depend on what happens with Russell (even though I'm still firmly in the camp that I'd rather he's gone). The Cubs could try to sign one of those guys and trade for a 2b like Merrifield (Happ/Russell?) and have Zo as your main supersub with Bote right behind him. You're going to have a pretty solid bench then.
I've seen some rumors that the Cubs are looking at position players who are versatile, so that could mean someone like Marwin Gonzalez. He probably is cheaper than either of the other 2, but a lesser bat. Signing him would probably mean Russell is for sure gone, but I would expect any other position player position (or more accurately, there isn't an obvious other piece to also add, though he's so complimentary you could do just about anything else). I'd rather take a shot at Donaldson or McCutchen.
I still think the Cubs are going to sign some hitter who is going to play regularly, and suspect there's a trade of someone from the Schwarber/Happ/Almora group (in addition to Russell). I also still think the Cubs are going to find a way to move Chatwood, even if they eat money on it; they can sign Donaldson/RP/backup C and fit under $246 if they shed some money.
Are you TRYING to trigger me?
Because I can use the BBTF search function...
And you... you need a /costanza tag?
No. Maybe. Not really. BN also mentioned Lowrie as an option, so sure, add him to my post.
Another route would be Andrew McCutchen. Like Donaldson, he's going to end up signing for a lot less than maybe he'd hoped a few years ago, but his questions center more on his defense/possible decline than health. He should be a corner OF, and probably would be better in LF than RF, though you wonder if the Cubs would try and squeeze him into CF and hope positioning/smaller park help him out. If you put him in a corner, you have the same shuffling options I talked about with Donaldson. I think I could get behind this one too, assuming he's in RF.
Adding another corner outfielder who will probably be pretty good but not great just means displacing another, cheaper corner OF who will probably be pretty good but not great. I think the Cubs could do better by looking at options for centerfield but unless you're adding a star everything looks like depth pieces.
Donaldson might be interesting because he's potentially affordable and at least provides genuine potential for star level production.
This is my pet peeve of offseason baseball transactions - and especially of baseball fan wish lists. Every team needs more relief pitchers, because Team A's 3rd-best reliever is almost certainly better than my team's 8th-best reliever, so it doesn't really mean anything to say, "The [fill in the blank] could really use some relief pitchers." But relief pitcher performance is SO DAMN VARIABLE that it just makes no damn sense to spend real money or give up anything even remotely valuable for all but a teeny, tiny handful of relief pitchers. Reminder: Brian Duensing had a 2.74 ERA (161 ERA+, 3.41 FIP) in 2017. He followed that up in 2018 with a 7.65 ERA (ERA+ of 56, 6.35 FIP). According to Baseball-Reference, every Twitter Cubs fan's favorite new Cub, Jesse Chavez, has 3.0 WAR in his 11-year MLB career. He earned 3.2 of that (i.e., 107% of his career value) in 2018 - two-thirds of Chavez's career WAR was earned in 39 innings (4.65% of his career total) as a Cub. I would not take an even-money bet in either direction as to which of Duensing or Chavez had a lower ERA / more WAR in 2019.
@GDubCub
Patrick Mooney
@PJ_Mooney
???
I'm more or less paraphrasing others on Twitter, but I'd like to think "[t]he learning curve" associated with "don't abuse people" is pretty short for most people.
...and there's my /costanza tag.
Doesn't let him or anyone else off the hook, obviously, but it doesn't actually take any imagination to see this as an actual process.
I am pro this.
but Boras' phrasing:
No. Just no. There are no special behavioral expectations by the Cubs, the National League/MLB, or Chicago.
And while I suppose one can sometimes make the case that external expectations causing a person NOT to behave a certain way is better than nothing, this is one of those clear-cut instances where the understanding is just that such behavior is wrong period.
Publicly, not that I'm aware of. Accepting his suspension doesn't count, not when he publicly and privately denied doing anything wrong. I can only find this statement when the suspension was announced:
Well, I think there are. Obviously, "don't beat your wife" is something that should be expected of everyone, so I take your point as far as that goes. But generally speaking, I think it's completely uncontroversial to say that pro athletes' behavior is up for a lot more scrutiny than it is for the rest of us.
I guess I read that Boras quote to probably be the result of a conversation that went something like this:
RUSSELL: Why are people all up in my personal business? What goes on in my family is no one else's concern!
BORAS: Guess again, numbnuts.
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