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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Wednesday, October 03, 2018Now what?I’m hungover and at work. This is probably going to be an incoherent mess. I probably will end up disagreeing with some or all of this, probably sooner than later. However, might as well start thinking about how the Cubs are going to approach this offseason. The easy route is making some small changes around the edges - maybe splurge on a reliever or two, bring a couple more long shot rebound types - and talk about being healthier and improving from within. There’s probably some merit to that, and it very well could work. They could burn it all down - fire Maddon, make a couple big, splashy trades, and spend a ton of money in FA. Maybe there’s some merit to that too, but that still would be an overreaction. I expect them to do something in between (wow, really going out on a ledge here, aren’t I), but it still very likely will be more turnover than we’ve been used to lately. So, let’s break it up by area. Coaching Staff Hitters I think the Cubs need a new backup catcher. I’m actually ok with Caratini, but they need someone that can give Contreras a lot more rest. Whether that’s a coaching thing that Joe just won’t play him, or a real reason they don’t like him getting regular appearances, they can’t expect Willson to play this much again and be worth anything with his bat. I still hope that for Contreras, he just needs more rest and he’ll be fine. The Cubs need a fulltime 2b and CF, but it very well could be those spots continue to be a rotation of in house guys (Almora/Happ/Zobrist/Bote/Heyward). I can live with that (and Heyward getting most of the starts in RF) if they add a big bat elsewhere. However, I have a suspicion that Cubs add someone else from the outside to fill one of those spots. I like the idea of Bote and Zobrist as bench regulars who each start a few times a week, but think the Cubs are better if neither are counted on to start 140ish times (Zobrst, just due to his age, can’t really be expected to be this good again in this much PT). Bottom line, I think the Cubs end up with 2 new starting position players and a different looking bench. Pitchers Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:27 AM | 427 comment(s)
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What a weird story this is, and that nothing's happened yet.
Olney
The Cubs re-signed Erick Leal, who I believe was once a darkhorse prospect back in the late 90s; Danny Hultzen, whose recovery from transplant surgery to replace his left shoulder with a porterhouse steak will continue; Gioskar Amaya, who continues to pursue the zonk dream of being a true super-utility player that can play catcher; and Roberto Caro, about whom I've got nothing clever to say.
The Cubs re-signed Erick Leal, who I believe was once a darkhorse prospect back in the late 90s
What? That's a long time to be in the minors. Is his nickname Crash?
Mordecai. I should have specified - 1890s. He's been around a long time.
This uncertainty after the changes a few years in a row doesn't exactly reflect positively on the FO.
He then goes on the say that sources think that maybe Contreras was distracted this season after passing on an extension last year.
I wonder if "sign this extension or we'll trade you" is gonna be a thing with big market teams?? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
One the one hand, it's an unsurprising response when the team doesn't have much payroll space to work with in the offseason. OTOH, the Cubs don't exactly have glaring holes now that Hamels is returning. Sure, they need bullpen help like basically everybody does.
Maybe the Cubs really are more interested in spending on 2019 free agents (Arenado) than 2018's class as Morosi's (#177) article claimed.
With or (most likely) without Bryce/Manny, this is shaping up to be an exciting offseason.
What teams could even offer a haul worthy of three years of Bryant?
Sign him and LeMahieu and Theo can un-do 2 of his 3 worst transaction. :-) (I don't think we're getting Torres back unless that's who we're trading Bryant for.)
I'm sure nobody, least of all me, ever expected Marwin to become such a good player, but to lose a guy who became a useful MLer through the rule 5 draft in the offseason before losing 197 games across two seasons is a bit embarrassing. I shudder to think what stud we used that 40-man spot on.
(Playing 20/20 hindsight games, if we keep Marwin, we never sign Zo, freeing up that money for a stud closer so we never trade for Chapman but still win the series, we trade Torres for Quintana allowing us to trade Eloy Jimenez for Cody Allen before the 2018 season ... hmmmm ... 20/20 hindsight usually works better than that. I blame Theo.)
LeMahieu was in the awesome challenge trade of Tyler Colvin for Ian Stewart. Alas, I was definitely of the opinion that LeMahieu couldn't hit but that's why I'm not paid millions per year to run the Cubs. OK, not the only reason.
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Theo has mostly talked down the Bryant stuff. But just for shits and giggles, here's a paragraph from Jim Bowden on the situation (basic summary of his piece is that as a GM he always listened to anyone on any player, which is fine):
He's just all over the place there.
I assume nothing will actually happen w/Bryant this offseason.
I guess Theo's denial wassn't strong enough for Olney, which honestly I can see:
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More Theo quotes from last week:
I don't know how he says that and then comes back next year with virtually the same team. I don't think that means trading Bryant, but I do think it means there's some moves, or big move, still coming.
I am kind of with you. I think the Olney story is legit and the Cubs really are looking to surprise by trading away somebody surprising.
The rotation seems pretty set* so I suppose that means bringing in an impact bat. Bryant makes a smidgen of sense insofar as trading him away for something pre-arbitration would give the Cubs short term savings to spend on a Donaldson or whatever. Alternatively, the Cubs might trade guys to clear the outfield glut but it's hard to see how that results in a genuine impact move.**
*Unless they find somebody to take most of Darvish's contract but doing that move now would be the ultimate selling low if the Cubs believe what they are saying about his health. Just putting him on the market would make any buyer suspicious of that.
**Although they could potentially package a young OF to get somebody to eat Chatwood's contract. I don't like deals which result in a net outflow of talent even if the Cubs are putting the savings to work on the FA market.
I'm sure any team would be happy to acquire Bryant... but no team is going to walk into that trade negotiation pretending it's the winter of 2016-2017. Happ, Almora, Schwarber, to say nothing of Russell.... I'd be loathe to move any of them just because I don't think the return will have the upside running them out there again might have.
I've been thinking more about those Bowden proposals, and the only one there that I'd think about as listed is Rendon/Robles. I also think that the Nats wouldn't really do that either, which is why it seems like the best one. The Rockies would have to throw more in to make the Arrenado one work because of the control left, but sure, maybe there's something there. IOW, the Cubs have to be getting a star back, plus maybe more depending on the contract. It's just so unlikely, unless the Cubs felt like that *had* to trade Bryant and I don't think they do.
---
So trying to think who could go, and I am still where I was when I wrote the blog post. I still see no way they move Rizzo, Baez (although to be honest, if there's anyone who might be at the peak of their value), or Bryant. I'm sure they'd love to move Heyward, but not sure how they would (Heyward/Bryant for Arrenado?). So maybe Contreras - try to package him with something else for Realmuto? That'd be a pretty big move.
Roation - they could move Quintana; he has some value still and is cheap. They could move Hendricks. They wouldn't move Lester, and probably can't/shouldn't move Darvish. They'd love to dump Chatwood, I bet.
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Nothing on the Hickey will he be back or not news. What a weird story.
Good grief.
Good grief.
That's not how I'm reading it.
Just those overcrowded stands and the little outdoor area. Probably will actually help with congestion around that area.
I meant as in I never thought he'd hit above a 70 OPS+ or whatever -- I recall I (or maybe it was good old Harveys) suggested he'd hit like a 12-year-old. A 92 OPS+ is perfectly fine for a solid defensive 2B and that's all I meant by LeMahieu "hitting."
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From here:
That's not a slight - a better Theriot is a pretty good return on a 24th overall pick.
Not with Theo at the helm. If he is all that I would say that you shouldn't expect him until the second week of April 2020.
Ha! How the #### is that not a slight?
I know but I hate him.
And I can't really even remember why. Did he talk #### about the Cubs when he joined the Cardinals and poached a ring?
He was on every ballot. Wasn't lower than 5th on any of them. Awesome year.
Now, now, he didn't make us wait for Schwarber and he even somehow let Edwards sneak over the super-2 line. More seriously, if Hoerner continues to improve and the Cubs have some MI injuries, he'll be up in a manner similar to Schwarber/Bote (not the same quality of prospect I know) ... I guess assuming the Cubs don't have somebody better stashed at AAA.
280/320/494 274/321/486
OPS+ 109 115
HR 71 66
RBI 245 188
SB 43/15 73/31
Rbat 19 22
base/dp +8 -3
WAR 12.3 8.5
WAA 7.3 4.3
BABIP 343 305
HR% 4.4 4.8
K% 26 21
BB% 4.6 5.9
HR/FB 14.6 13.4
Sosa took a big step at 24 -- 112 OPS+, 33 HR, 93 RBI, added 80+ points of ISO. He consolidated and improved in his age 25 season. His big jump came at age 29. Javy took a step up in 2017, mainly adding 50 points of ISO then added another 50 points of ISO at 25. Hopefully he can consolidate that next year although we should probably expect some drop in ISO. Impressively, there was no BABIP strike underlying this year's breakout.
The WAR gap is less about defense than you might think -- TZ loved Sosa in those years so he has 2.5 dWAR which is excellent for a RF and just 2.2 dWAR behind Javy.
Anyway, that seems pretty promising. Not that we can expect Javy to make the later leap that Sosa made but Sosa ages 26-28 would be an excellent outcome for Javy -- 13 WAR, excellent defense, good baserunning, 112 HRs, better walk rate, 115 OPS+ thanks to a terrible 1997. And Javy was 4 in 1997 so that's well behind him! If Javy could continue that through his early 30s, that's a very nice career.
Cubs 40 man is at 39, I believe, with a few guys worth protecting. Only thing I've read on it, this is more zonk's cup of tea (especially the regretting losing guys part).
FWIW, a BCB list of guys to think about protecting, as well.
In any case, per Moses' list -- Field and Reinheimer are org fodder. Zero reason to protect them. Taylor Davis might be a step above that if only because he'd be a not awful backup C on a rebuilding team without anyone else and has apparently earned a bit of a "Crash" parallel. IOW - a nice guy to have at AAA if you don't have a real catching prospect. Vasto is mainly just a lefty.... a well-traveled one who supposedly has decent enough stuff, but no great loss. Webster, Norwood, and Hancock are all guys approaching their late 20s who are nothing more than shuttle/injury insurance types. No reason to hang onto them.
The BCB list is for the minor league phases of the rule 5 - none of these guys are at any real risk to get scooped up in the MLB portion, but of the ones I'd hate to see go in the minor league phase? Rob Z is worth hanging onto.... Chesney Young is versatile - hasn't hit, no - but I'd rather have him around as a 4A utility guy than flotsam like Freeman. Galindo is still pretty young and has a pulse. Keep him, too.
That's one more spot. On the Rangers side, Eddie Butler cleared waivers and was sent to AAA.
So he's got even more future negative value?
Of course, there's not much in his minor league track record that screams "PROTECT ME!!!" -- he busted out of the gate pretty well, but I think he missed a year or so (TJ surgery maybe? Don't recall).
Anyway, I think that's a nice snag. Him, I'd probably spend a 40 man spot on. His more recent track record is nothing to write home about, but he's probably got the pedigree and throws with the proper arm that I would imagine some team might at least see if they can stash him as a bullpen mop-up guy.
Good pickup.
Was the delay because they were trying to convince him to stay? Hoping whatever the personal reasons were resolved? The Cubs said they're searching for a replacement. I feel like this is a much bigger loss than Chili, even if there were still questions on the pitching side that weren't "fixed" by replacing Bosio.
If the Cubs don't keep Maddon next year, there could be new hitting/coaches yet again. That's not exactly a sign of a stable org, though it could also be overblown.
40 man is at 39. So, anyone they didn't protect that they should have?
My wild guess is that management said they would keep him but were going to start getting hands-on with the meddling in Hickey's area.
I feel like this is a much bigger loss than Chili, even if there were still questions on the pitching side that weren't "fixed" by replacing Bosio.
Like Davis, Hickey's tenure seemed to show big shifts in how the pitchers approached their jobs. Unlike Davis, the staff as a whole exceeded expectations. I suppose there are negatives you can lay at Hickey's feet (Edwards, Chatwood, maaaaaybe Darvish, Lester's peripherals were alarming, Hendricks started poorly and it's possible his improvement came from ignoring Hickey).
I think so. Mooney's piece today:
So maybe the meddling played a role.
This is from that same piece which is supposedly about what Hickey's exit means - he never actually explained anything about why it happened, what's next, or what it means.
I just doubled back to this, but I still think it's at least an open question. The seat map you linked to shows (what is currently) the 400s behind home plate in red, which is the Catalina Club color. And the Catalina Club will be a restricted area. So...?
---
Szym has his elegy for the Cubs up. They seem to be written more for the non-diehard, but the interesting part in there is how ZIPS sees KB the next 3 years. If that's all he is, I'm going to be pretty bummed.
---
Hmm, you might be right Brian. Yet I'd be surprised if that's what happens.
I have really mixed feelings on this one. There's a really good chance his good stretch with the Cubs last year was just that - a good stretch. But he was unbelievably good in just about every way. This isn't that expensive, though the risk is that it also could turn out to be another Duensing type deal with just wasted and untradable money. Good for him though, he hasn't really made that much in his career.
I get (and share) the gut reaction disappointment that he's not coming back, but, per Baseball-Reference, Jesse Chavez was exactly replacement level prior to last season. And it's not like he's a young guy who has a bright future. Jesse Chavez is 35 years old and earned exactly 0.0 WAR over the first 10 seasons of his big-league career. Even including last season, Brian Duensing has a lower career ERA / higher ERA+ (4.19, 99 vs. 4.45, 92).
Absolutely, good for him for getting that kind of money and it's not like the Cubs couldn't afford it, but, honestly, I wouldn't take an even-money bet on Chavez having a better 2019 than Duensing by whatever metric you want to use to measure it (ERA, ERA+, WAR, etc.). (To be clear, I wouldn't take the other end of that bet, either.)
40 man now at 39 again. He's the new Mike Freeman I reckon.
Ok. Still no pitching coach yet.
End of an era.
Hope this isn't just another cost move, though as a specialist his role was likely to be diminished more next year (assuming Zobrist isn't a FT starter). Perhaps even Torres can replicate his PH duties (higher OPS+ than TLS last year).
Feels more like speculation to me than news, he's the only beat writer I've seen say that so far today. I'd guess he's tendered a contract, too.
It seems like relief pitching will be a real focus for the Cubs this offseason according to yesterday's The Athletic chat.
The White Sox just picked up Alex Colome. Gotta think the idea is for them to flip him at a later point, but he also would have been an interesting option, possibly better than any of the FA.
I think I'm convinced I want a McCutchen signing, and not just because I'd really like rooting for him.
Yeah, that kind of sums up what I think. It's hard to know what's right here. I guess what matters is what's right for his wife and family, and this might fit that bill. I don't know -- I am not going to make a judgment.
I generally think just releasing a (lawyer-)written statement as an "apology" is weak, but as written statements go, these are definitely better than the standard.
Russell is still really, really young in life terms, and probably even more so in maturity terms, having lived his entire life as a hotshot baseball player. Of course that excuses absolutely none of his behavior, but it does make it plausible that this could have been a wake-up call that he had severely f*cked up and needs to do some serious work on himself. Sadly, it seems like most of these stories don't lead to the redemption of a man who changed for the better, but is it too soon to write him off? Maybe.
I dunno. I do think he is going to need to engage with this and take accountability beyond a one-time written statement. He should be willing to talk openly about this all year and beyond. No hiding behind "I just want to focus on the season" or whatever.
I mean, this is perfectly fine, from Theo:
While this decision leaves the door open for Addison to later make an impact for us on the field, it does not represent the finish line nor rubber-stamp his future as a Cub. It does however reflect our support for him as long as he continues to make progress.
Putting on my completely cynical hat, there's plenty of wiggle room in there for anything that the Cubs decide to do with him going forward. It kicks the ball further down the field, and the further away the date the Cubs actually say he's going to play for them the better it is for their image/reducing any negative PR/feedback. I still am already cringing at the thought of the ovation he's likely to get him first appearance (a la Patrick Kane or anyone else coming back from this sort of thing), and kinda sick thinking about it. If nothing else, Theo is really ####### slick, and well, quite frankly, that might be the biggest reason this doesn't exactly feel completely sincere to me.
I also am not fully convinced by Russell's statement/"apology". Doesn't feel "authentic", but I'll admit that's a horrible standard to use.
The odds he wrote the statement are practically nil. There is no point in parsing these things to divine the individual's personal feelings. It's a statement made in self-interest, not a soliloquy.
Oh, absolutely. There probably isn't a real difference between that and everyone giving him that extra first cheer when he made his first appearance, but it feels different.
Cubs also emailed both those statements out to anyone who gets emails from them, so at least kudos for that and not just putting out a statement and letting it spread however on its own. I also don't really care for the various media heads complimenting the Cubs on how they're handling this, even if that's hypocritical of me as I parse everything.
The odds he wrote the statement are practically nil. There is no point in parsing these things to divine the individual's personal feelings. It's a statement made in self-interest, not a soliloquy.
Exactly. Which is why it doesn't really count as an apology, to me. The only apology that really matters isn't a public one anyway, and one we'll never be privy to.
Of course, it's stuff like this that are just part of the (predictable) cycle:
I threw this out there as an off the wall possibility earlier this very page.
I just wonder what the deal would be beyond Willson, and that's the main reason to be weary. Straight up, I could get behind, which is obviously why it wouldn't happen.
I don't know that he's an "obvious upgrade" if "Willson bounce[s] back". Realmuto's 2018 (131 OPS+, 4.3 WAR) was as out-of-place relative to his previous seasons as Contreras's was (92, 2.8), just in the opposite direction. In 2017, Contreras out-OPS+'d Realmuto 118-112 and out-WARed him (BB-Ref version) 4.0 to 3.6 (in 150 fewer plate appearances). Obviously the "if Willson bounced back" is doing a lot of the work there but I'd be pretty surprised if the Cubs acquired Realmuto mostly because the marginal gain for the Cubs from such a trade would be so much lower than for so many other teams that I assume somebody would offer the Marlins more.
I don't agree with this, and in a way I think it's more cynical than what the Cubs are being accused by some of doing.
First off, people's consciences are their own problems. If they can't figure out how to root for a baseball team without realizing that some guys on the team might not be the best dudes ... well, that's not something Addison Russell can fix.
Secondly, suppose Russell does publicly apologize. How in the world can anyone possibly know how sincere that apology is? Hell, his own wife is probably wrestling with that question on a regular basis, and she's closer to the situation than anyone. And even if she's not specifically, that's absolutely a common state-of-mind for abuse victims, who almost always get the "oh I'm so sorry, please forgive me" before they're hit again.
So what's the public apology for, really? Well, what more can it be, except for show? It's so that fans can, like you say, continue on with "a clear conscience." But that's just another way of saying that the guy has to hit his marks in a stage show so that fans can go on ignoring the situation like they did before. I mean, what could be more awful in this context than fans saying, "Addison, you made ME feel bad by hitting someone, now say something nice to make it better?"
I'm not going to fight this that much, but they're pretty close in age and I think it's easier to see realmuto as staying at his level than Willy jumping back up. I'd be happy to be wrong though and it's not like I'm hoping this deal happens. It's just one that kinda makes sense in context even though it's not obvious or really necessary.
Robothal. This I what I'm talking about. I mean, Russell lied to the Cubs and everyone, right? He categorically denied everything. These talking heads are stupid.
WTF? Why did they trade for him 2 days ago?
Also, Contreras’s pitch framing numbers suck. The Cubs seem to put stock in those.
The Ross obsession isn't just local. Sure, McCann at $2mil would have been nice. And a veteran backup catcher makes sense. But what's with this Adam Jones stuff?
So, it was important for the Cubs to get a player (or players, since, you know, they acquired Jon Lester at the same time) who had won a World Series. But, having won a World Series two years ago, the Cubs roster is littered with players who have, in fact, won a World Series. So now, the "example the Cubs need" is a guy who has never played in a World Series? Huh?
This view of the Cubs as some sort of under-achieving failure is just weird.
The "agents and rival teams" part isn't new. The implication here clearly is the Cubs couldn't (wouldn't?) meet Chavez's 2/$8mil deal.
*I mean, come on, wtf:
This view of the Cubs as some sort of under-achieving failure is just weird.
The Cubs must have been pretty hot after McCann but got handcuffed when the bidding went up to $2 million/1 year.
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